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Temperature and Precipitation Projections for the Mobile Bay Region

Chapter Three Data Tables

Chapter Three Data Tables

Figure 3.2

  A1FI higher A2 mid-high B1 lower
Jan 5.51 6.46 2.78
Feb 5.23 4.91 2.03
Mar 6.78 5.47 2.73
Apr 7.60 6.01 2.78
May 8.91 6.84 3.02
Jun 8.72 6.55 2.67
Jul 9.07 7.09 3.03
Aug 9.30 7.27 3.31
Sep 9.12 7.62 3.96
Oct 9.41 8.93 4.32
Nov 6.83 7.30 4.22
Dec 6.25 6.25 3.81

Figure 3.2 Projected change in average monthly temperature for 2070-2099 relative to 1980-2099, in degrees F, for the higher (A1fi), mid-high (A2) and lower (B1) emission scenarios. Values averaged across all climate models and stations.

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Figure 3.3

Table A
  MAXIMUM 7-DAY TEMPERATURE - MEAN
1980-2009 0.52 94.88 0.66 0.87 94.88 0.87 0.73 94.88 0.73
2010-2039 0.76 96.35 0.88 0.78 96.13 0.78 1.11 96.23 1.11
2040-2069 0.33 99.35 0.48 1.22 98.42 1.22 1.44 96.91 1.44
2070-2099 0.48 101.85 0.75 1.99 101.54 1.99 1.82 97.81 1.82
Table B
  ANNUAL MEAN HIGHEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (oF)
1980-2009 1.06 96.65 1.16 1.24 96.65 1.24 1.13 96.65 1.13
2010-2039 1.50 98.21 0.95 0.97 97.97 0.97 1.38 97.97 1.38
2040-2069 0.85 101.24 0.57 1.44 100.40 1.44 1.75 98.70 1.75
2070-2099 0.84 103.81 0.72 1.98 103.49 1.98 2.10 99.55 2.10
Table C
  HIGHEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (oF)
1980-2009 0.73 101.51 0.96 1.48 101.51 1.48 0.83 101.51 0.83
2010-2039 1.29 102.00 1.62 1.13 102.66 1.13 1.44 103.42 1.44
2040-2069 1.45 105.89 1.43 2.44 105.80 2.44 1.94 102.92 1.94
2070-2099 1.35 109.30 0.99 3.35 109.11 3.35 1.91 104.13 1.91

Figure 3.3 Projected change in the maximum daily temperature for (a) the hottest consecutive 7 day of the year, (b) the hottest day of the year and (c) the hottest day in 30 years (bottom) for the five weather stations as simulated for the B1 lower, A2 mid-high, and A1FI higher emission scenarios averaged over 10 (B1, A2) and 4 (A1FI) independent climate model simulations. Projected changes sample from the 98th, 99.7th, and 99.99th percentile of the distribution,respectively. Projected changes beyond the 99.9th percentile of the distribution, such as projections for the hottest day in 30 years, should be taken as qualitative rather than quantitative in nature as the projections are not intended to be accurate to that degree. Error bars show the range of projected values for A1Fi and the 2s range for A2 and B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).

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Figure 3.4

Table A
  NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR ABOVE 95oF
1980-2009 0.85 8.42 0.75 1.79 8.42 1.79 1.72 8.42 1.72
2010-2039 3.80 17.40 6.00 3.79 15.94 3.79 5.16 16.78 5.16
2040-2069 16.50 45.90 8.50 9.63 36.52 9.63 6.56 22.98 6.56
2070-2099 24.75 84.25 16.45 24.18 71.86 24.18 11.11 30.08 11.11
Table B
  NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR ABOVE 100oF
1980-2009 0.60 0.15 0.00 0.65 0.28 -0.09 0.33 0.10 -0.13
2010-2039 1.40 0.60 0.00 1.31 0.76 0.21 1.49 0.92 0.35
2040-2069 8.40 5.75 3.40 7.07 4.22 1.37 3.22 1.52 -0.18
2070-2099 29.40 20.10 12.60 31.96 17.80 3.64 6.59 3.00 -0.59
Table C
  NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR ABOVE 95oF
1980-2009 1.12 4.40 1.06 1.22 4.40 1.22 0.97 4.40 0.97
2010-2039 1.99 7.10 2.47 1.98 6.89 1.98 3.04 7.57 3.04
2040-2069 14.05 19.96 7.34 5.80 15.68 5.80 3.55 10.01 3.55
2070-2099 30.89 38.78 17.88 21.74 34.46 21.74 5.27 12.93 5.27
Table D
  NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR ABOVE 100oF
1980-2009 0.13 0.21 0.08 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.14 0.21 0.14
2010-2039 0.50 0.55 0.45 0.37 0.56 0.37 0.39 0.65 0.39
2040-2069 1.17 3.20 1.13 1.39 2.39 1.39 0.95 0.98 0.95
2070-2099 3.65 8.57 2.86 7.36 8.63 7.36 1.95 1.75 1.95

Figure 3.4 Projected change in individual (a, b) and consecutive (c,d) days per year over (a,c) 95oF and (b,d) 100oF for the average of the 5 weather stations as simulated for the B1 lower, A2 mid-high, and A1FI higher emission scenarios averaged over 10 (B1, A2) and 4 (A1FI) independent climate model simulations. Error bars show range of projected values for A1Fi and 2s range for A2 and B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).

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Figure 3.5
  COLDEST DAY - MEAN
1980-2009 1.82 18.20 1.23 0.72 18.20 0.72 1.17 18.20 1.17
2010-2039 1.11 20.35 1.93 1.86 19.97 1.86 1.92 19.70 1.92
2040-2069 1.97 22.32 3.01 1.77 21.76 1.77 1.86 21.32 1.86
2070-2099 1.45 24.45 1.37 2.10 24.53 2.10 1.72 21.22 1.72

Figure 3.5 Projected change in the temperature of the coldest day of the year (or the 99.7th percentile of the distribution of minimum temperature) for Mobile, AL as simulated for the B1 lower, A2 mid-high, and A1FI higher emission scenarios averaged over 10 (B1, A2) and 4 (A1FI) independent climate model simulations. Error bars show range of projected values for A1Fi and 2s range for A2 & B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).

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Updated: 03/27/2014
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