Temperature and Precipitation Projections for the Mobile Bay Region
Chapter Four Data Tables
Chapter Four Data Tables
Figure 4.1
| |
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES) |
| 1980-2009 |
3.01 |
65.22 |
1.44 |
2.29 |
65.22 |
2.29 |
1.62 |
65.22 |
1.62 |
| 2010-2039 |
4.73 |
68.92 |
3.64 |
3.92 |
69.17 |
3.92 |
5.98 |
68.78 |
5.98 |
| 2040-2069 |
8.76 |
68.07 |
5.53 |
6.51 |
68.98 |
6.51 |
7.56 |
72.35 |
7.56 |
| 2070-2099 |
12.83 |
65.11 |
12.08 |
8.82 |
67.65 |
8.82 |
7.65 |
73.83 |
7.65 |
Figure 4.1 Projected annual average precipitation for the average of the 5 weather stations, as simulated by the average of ten climate models for the B1 (lower), A2 (mid-high) and A1FI (higher) emissions scenarios. Error bars show range of projected values for A1fi and 2s range for A2 & B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).
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Figure 4.3
Winter
| 2010-2039 |
5% |
11% |
6% |
12% |
6% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
| 2040-2069 |
13% |
4% |
17% |
15% |
8% |
15% |
12% |
11% |
12% |
| 2070-2099 |
20% |
-5% |
14% |
15% |
11% |
15% |
15% |
13% |
15% |
Spring
| 2010-2039 |
22% |
4% |
12% |
11% |
4% |
11% |
12% |
-1% |
12% |
| 2040-2069 |
29% |
-3% |
28% |
14% |
-2% |
14% |
12% |
-1% |
12% |
| 2070-2099 |
47% |
-4% |
36% |
27% |
-5% |
27% |
16% |
7% |
16% |
Summer
| 2010-2039 |
22% |
0% |
21% |
18% |
4% |
18% |
19% |
5% |
19% |
| 2040-2069 |
24% |
-2% |
27% |
24% |
4% |
24% |
27% |
15% |
27% |
| 2070-2099 |
32% |
-9% |
34% |
28% |
-5% |
28% |
27% |
13% |
27% |
Fall
| 2010-2039 |
13% |
15% |
11% |
18% |
9% |
18% |
12% |
7% |
12% |
| 2040-2069 |
34% |
28% |
25% |
19% |
12% |
19% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
| 2070-2099 |
32% |
29% |
28% |
24% |
14% |
24% |
19% |
19% |
19% |
Figure 4.3 Projected change in seasonal average precipitation averaged across the five Mobile Bay weather stations relative to 1980-2009; as simulated by the average of ten climate models for the B1 (lower), and A2 (mid-high) scenarios and four climate models for the A1FI (higher) emissions scenarios. Error bars show range of projected values for A1Fi and 2s range for A2 & B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).
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Figure 4.6
Table A
| |
24H PRECIPITATION - 1% OCCURRENCE |
| 1980-2009 |
1.16 |
12.57 |
2.45 |
2.15 |
12.57 |
2.15 |
1.49 |
12.57 |
1.49 |
| 2010-2039 |
6.79 |
16.44 |
4.28 |
3.39 |
17.60 |
3.39 |
3.81 |
20.11 |
3.81 |
| 2040-2069 |
3.70 |
19.43 |
3.85 |
5.02 |
19.26 |
5.02 |
4.65 |
18.98 |
4.65 |
| 2070-2099 |
5.90 |
17.92 |
5.18 |
4.38 |
18.34 |
4.38 |
4.67 |
18.79 |
4.67 |
Table B
| |
24H PRECIPITATION - 50% OCCURRENCE |
| 1980-2009 |
0.53 |
4.45 |
0.41 |
0.39 |
4.45 |
0.39 |
0.37 |
4.45 |
0.37 |
| 2010-2039 |
1.19 |
5.35 |
1.05 |
0.67 |
5.09 |
0.67 |
0.80 |
5.08 |
0.80 |
| 2040-2069 |
0.61 |
4.81 |
0.49 |
0.63 |
5.36 |
0.63 |
1.10 |
5.44 |
1.10 |
| 2070-2099 |
0.68 |
4.90 |
0.70 |
0.89 |
5.46 |
0.89 |
1.03 |
5.77 |
1.03 |
Table C
| |
2-DAY PRECIPITATION - 1% EXCEEDENCE |
| 1980-2009 |
0.59 |
7.86 |
0.61 |
0.72 |
7.86 |
0.72 |
0.57 |
7.86 |
0.57 |
| 2010-2039 |
1.60 |
8.80 |
1.24 |
1.02 |
8.85 |
1.02 |
1.79 |
9.10 |
1.79 |
| 2040-2069 |
0.87 |
9.11 |
1.00 |
1.13 |
9.23 |
1.13 |
1.67 |
9.46 |
1.67 |
| 2070-2099 |
0.70 |
8.89 |
0.68 |
1.49 |
9.69 |
1.49 |
1.79 |
9.96 |
1.79 |
Table D
| |
2-DAY PRECIPITATION - 50% EXCEEDENCE |
| 1980-2009 |
0.04 |
0.60 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.60 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.60 |
0.04 |
| 2010-2039 |
0.04 |
0.62 |
0.05 |
0.06 |
0.63 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.62 |
0.07 |
| 2040-2069 |
0.11 |
0.60 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.62 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
0.65 |
0.08 |
| 2070-2099 |
0.14 |
0.59 |
0.14 |
0.10 |
0.61 |
0.10 |
0.08 |
0.66 |
0.08 |
Figure 4.6 Precipitation exceedence thresholds across most time periods including 24h (a, b) and 96h (c, d) are projected to increase. Increases tend to be slightly larger for lower exceedence thresholds as compared to higher ones (here, 1% compared to 50%), but in general there is little difference between the magnitude of changes projected under different scenarios and for different future time periods. For each time period, the scenarios shown (from left to right) are B1, A2, and A1Fi.
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