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Temperature and Precipitation Projections for the Mobile Bay Region

Chapter Four Data Tables

Chapter Four Data Tables

Figure 4.1

  TOTAL PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
1980-2009 3.01 65.22 1.44 2.29 65.22 2.29 1.62 65.22 1.62
2010-2039 4.73 68.92 3.64 3.92 69.17 3.92 5.98 68.78 5.98
2040-2069 8.76 68.07 5.53 6.51 68.98 6.51 7.56 72.35 7.56
2070-2099 12.83 65.11 12.08 8.82 67.65 8.82 7.65 73.83 7.65

Figure 4.1 Projected annual average precipitation for the average of the 5 weather stations, as simulated by the average of ten climate models for the B1 (lower), A2 (mid-high) and A1FI (higher) emissions scenarios. Error bars show range of projected values for A1fi and 2s range for A2 & B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).

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Figure 4.3

Winter
2010-2039 5% 11% 6% 12% 6% 12% 9% 10% 9%
2040-2069 13% 4% 17% 15% 8% 15% 12% 11% 12%
2070-2099 20% -5% 14% 15% 11% 15% 15% 13% 15%
Spring
2010-2039 22% 4% 12% 11% 4% 11% 12% -1% 12%
2040-2069 29% -3% 28% 14% -2% 14% 12% -1% 12%
2070-2099 47% -4% 36% 27% -5% 27% 16% 7% 16%
Summer
2010-2039 22% 0% 21% 18% 4% 18% 19% 5% 19%
2040-2069 24% -2% 27% 24% 4% 24% 27% 15% 27%
2070-2099 32% -9% 34% 28% -5% 28% 27% 13% 27%
Fall
2010-2039 13% 15% 11% 18% 9% 18% 12% 7% 12%
2040-2069 34% 28% 25% 19% 12% 19% 16% 16% 16%
2070-2099 32% 29% 28% 24% 14% 24% 19% 19% 19%

Figure 4.3 Projected change in seasonal average precipitation averaged across the five Mobile Bay weather stations relative to 1980-2009; as simulated by the average of ten climate models for the B1 (lower), and A2 (mid-high) scenarios and four climate models for the A1FI (higher) emissions scenarios. Error bars show range of projected values for A1Fi and 2s range for A2 & B1 (i.e., one s above and below the mean).

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Figure 4.6

Table A
  24H PRECIPITATION - 1% OCCURRENCE
1980-2009 1.16 12.57 2.45 2.15 12.57 2.15 1.49 12.57 1.49
2010-2039 6.79 16.44 4.28 3.39 17.60 3.39 3.81 20.11 3.81
2040-2069 3.70 19.43 3.85 5.02 19.26 5.02 4.65 18.98 4.65
2070-2099 5.90 17.92 5.18 4.38 18.34 4.38 4.67 18.79 4.67
Table B
  24H PRECIPITATION - 50% OCCURRENCE
1980-2009 0.53 4.45 0.41 0.39 4.45 0.39 0.37 4.45 0.37
2010-2039 1.19 5.35 1.05 0.67 5.09 0.67 0.80 5.08 0.80
2040-2069 0.61 4.81 0.49 0.63 5.36 0.63 1.10 5.44 1.10
2070-2099 0.68 4.90 0.70 0.89 5.46 0.89 1.03 5.77 1.03
Table C
  2-DAY PRECIPITATION - 1% EXCEEDENCE
1980-2009 0.59 7.86 0.61 0.72 7.86 0.72 0.57 7.86 0.57
2010-2039 1.60 8.80 1.24 1.02 8.85 1.02 1.79 9.10 1.79
2040-2069 0.87 9.11 1.00 1.13 9.23 1.13 1.67 9.46 1.67
2070-2099 0.70 8.89 0.68 1.49 9.69 1.49 1.79 9.96 1.79
Table D
  2-DAY PRECIPITATION - 50% EXCEEDENCE
1980-2009 0.04 0.60 0.04 0.05 0.60 0.05 0.04 0.60 0.04
2010-2039 0.04 0.62 0.05 0.06 0.63 0.06 0.07 0.62 0.07
2040-2069 0.11 0.60 0.07 0.07 0.62 0.07 0.08 0.65 0.08
2070-2099 0.14 0.59 0.14 0.10 0.61 0.10 0.08 0.66 0.08

Figure 4.6 Precipitation exceedence thresholds across most time periods including 24h (a, b) and 96h (c, d) are projected to increase. Increases tend to be slightly larger for lower exceedence thresholds as compared to higher ones (here, 1% compared to 50%), but in general there is little difference between the magnitude of changes projected under different scenarios and for different future time periods. For each time period, the scenarios shown (from left to right) are B1, A2, and A1Fi.

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Updated: 03/27/2014
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