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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pilots

Figure 2 - Assessing Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure: Pilot of the Conceptual Model

This figure describes how the concepts of likelihood and consequence are combined into a gridded risk assessment guide. At the top right of the flowchart, a table designates levels of likelihood as capital letters "A" through "E". Capital "A" indicates Remote Likelihood, capital "B" indicates Unlikely Likelihood, capital "C" indicates Likely Likelihood, capital "D" indicates Highly Likely Likelihood, and capital "E" indicates Near Certainty Likelihood. At the bottom of the flowchart, a similar table designates levels of consequence as lower case letters "a" through "e." Lowercase "a" represents minimal or no impact and implies minimal or no cost. Lowercase "b" represents additional resources required, able to meet and implies a less than 5% cost. Lowercase "c" indicates minor slip in key milestones, not able to meet need date and implies a 5 to 7% cost. Lowercase "d" indicates a major slip in key milestone or critical path impacted and implies a 7 to 10% cost. Lowercase "e" indicates can't achieve key team or major program milestone and implies a greater than 10% cost.

Both the likelihood and consequence tables feed into the central Assessment Guide grid, which visually depicts overall levels of risk for varying likelihood and consequence levels. In general, the greater the likelihood and the greater the consequence, the higher the risk. High risk grid cells are represented as red; medium risk cells are represented as yellow; and low risk cells are represented as green on the Assessment Guide grid. For the capital "E" likelihood level, the grid cells are yellow when the consequence is at level lowercase "a" and "b", and red at higher consequence levels. For the capital "D" likelihood level, the cell is green when the consequence level is lowercase "a", yellow when the consequence level is lowercase "b" and "c", and red at higher consequence levels. For the capital "C" likelihood level, the cell is green when the consequence level is lowercase "a" and "b", yellow when the consequence level is lowercase "c" and "d", and red at a consequence level of lowercase "e." For the capital "B" likelihood level, the cell is green when the consequence level is lowercase "a", "b" and "c" and yellow when the consequence level is lowercase "d" or "e." For the capital "A" likelihood level, the cell is green when the consequence level is lowercase "a", "b", "c" or "d" and yellow when the consequence level is lowercase "e".

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Updated: 03/27/2014
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