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Inter-Agency Climate Change
Scenario Planning Pilot Project
List of References with Annotations for Highly Relevant Resources
July 14, 2010
REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Frumhoff, P.C., J.J. McCarthy, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Moser, and D.J. Wuebbles (2007). Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Full report available at www.climatechoices.org/assets/documents/climatechoices/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf. Massachusetts Fact Sheet available at www.climatechoices.org/assets/documents/climatechoices/massachuetts_necia.pdf
The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) describes how climate change may affect Massachusetts and other Northeast states under two different emissions scenarios. The lower-emissions scenario is based on atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) rising from ~380 parts per million (ppm) today to ~550 ppm by the end of the century; the higher emissions scenarios assumes an increase to 940 ppm. The report describes the anticipated impacts of climate change on the Northeast climate, coastal resources, marine resources, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, and human health.
Hammar-Klose, E.S., E.A. Pendleton, E.R. Thieler, and S.J. Williams (2003). Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO) to Sea-Level Rise. U.S. Geological Survey, Open file Report 02-233. Available at pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-233/images/pdf/CapeCod_CVI.pdf
This report presents the results of a vulnerability assessment for Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO), highlighting areas that are likely to be most affected by future sea level rise (SLR). The coastal vulnerability assessment was based on six variables: geomorphology, shoreline change rate, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, mean significant wave height, and mean tidal range. The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) analysis identified four separate regions of relative coastal vulnerability within CACO: very high vulnerability, high vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, and lowest vulnerability. The very high vulnerability region is in the most southern portion of CACO starting around Coast Guard Beach. Regions of high vulnerability are distributed within the park, but the most consistent area of high vulnerability exists within Cape Cod Bay. Moderate vulnerability shoreline is concentrated around the Provincetown spit system. The lowest vulnerability shoreline is on the outer cape from Head of the Meadow Beach south to Marconi Beach. The study determined that the most influential variables in the CVI are geomorphology and regional coastal slope. As a result, those two variables may be considered the dominant factors controlling how CACO will evolve as sea level rises.
Kirshen, P., C. Watson, E. Douglas, A. Gontz, J. Lee, and Y. Tian (2007). Coastal Flooding in the Northeastern United States due to Climate Change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 13: 437-451. Available at www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/miti/kirshen_et_al.pdf
This study estimates the change in recurrence intervals of storm surges in the northeastern United States due to possible SLR scenarios. At five sea level stations in the United States, from Massachusetts to New Jersey, SLR trends and tidal effects were removed from the hourly sea level time series and then a frequency analysis was performed on the positive remaining anomalies that represent storm surge heights. Then using eustatic SLR estimates for lower and higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (SRES B1, and SRES A1fi, respectively) and assumed trends in local SLR, new recurrence intervals were determined for future storm surges. The historical local SLR for Woods Hole was found to be 1.0 mm/year. The study results found that, under the lower emission scenario, the recurrence interval of the present 100-year storm surge in Woods Hole will be less than 50 years by 2050, and 35 years or less by 2100. Under the higher emission scenario, the recurrence interval will be 35 years by 2050 and less than every 2 years by 2100.
Suarez, P., W. Anderson, V. Mahal, and T.R. Lakshmana (2005). Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A system-wide performance assessment of the Boston Metro Area. Transportation Research Part D 10:231-244. Available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920905000155/
This paper addresses the potential impact of climate change on the performance of the surface transportation system in the Boston Metro Area, with particular focus on transportation disruption. In order to understand the magnitude of transportation disruption the study simulated the effects of flooding and climate change using Boston's Urban Transportation Modeling System (UTMS). The model was first run under normal circumstances to provide baseline values for the volume of travel and the amount of time spent in travel. A set of flooding scenarios was then designed to identify: 1) areas that are flooded so that no trips begin or end there, and 2) network links that become impassable. Flooding scenarios were developed based on combinations of the year of the simulation, the area flooded (no flooding, 100-year, or 500-year floodplain based on Flood Insurance Rate Maps), and type of flooding (coastal, riverine, or both). Over the period 2000-2100, the results indicate that delays and trips lost increase by 80 and 82 percent respectively under the climate change scenario.
Thieler, E.R., J. O'Connell, and C. Schupp (2001). Massachusetts Shoreline Change Project: 1800s to 1994. Available at http://www.mass.gov/czm/hazards/pdf/sc_technical_report.pdf. Maps and data tables available from the Massachusetts Ocean Resource Information System (MORIS) available at http://www.mass.gov/czm/mapping/index.htm
The goal of the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Shoreline Change Project is to develop and distribute scientific data that will help inform local land use decisions. In a previous phase of the Shoreline Change Project, CZM completed a statistical analysis from the mid-1800s to 1978 for Massachusetts ocean-facing coastline and produced 76 maps that demonstrate long-term shoreline change. In 2001, CZM updated the Shoreline Change Project maps using 1994 NOAA aerial photographs of the Massachusetts shoreline. The new maps and statistical analysis of shoreline change now cover the time period from the mid-1800s to 1994. The 76 1:10,000-scale shoreline change maps show the relative positions of four to five historic shorelines and depict the long-term change rate at 40-meter intervals along the shore.
TRANSPORTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION)
Bryn, P., Z. Wadud, and A. Greszler (2010). Modal Primer on Greenhouse Gas and Energy Issues for the Transportation Industry: Road Transportation. Transportation Research Board, Circular Number E-C143. Available at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec143.pdf.
Road transportation is responsible for roughly three-fourths of the GHG emissions produced by U.S. transportation systems as a result of high levels of vehicle activity enabled by largely auto-centric planning and a lack of alternative modes. Federal government agencies have several options for encouraging reductions in GHG emissions from road transportation, including promoting cleaner fuel sources and technologies that improve fuel efficiency. federal, state, and local government agencies can all support more indirect methods of reducing GHG emissions from road transportation by introducing pricing schemes and regulations to reduce fuel consumption (through fewer vehicle miles travelled and/or more efficient driving) and promoting alternative forms of transportation and coordinated land use and transportation planning.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc (2009). Moving Cooler: An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Washington, D.C.: Urban Land Institute. Available at http://www.movingcooler.info/
This study assesses the potential effectiveness of almost 50 transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions by reducing the amount of vehicle travel that occurs, by inducing people to use less fuel-intensive means of transportation, or by reducing the amount of fuel consumed during travel through transportation system improvements. Each strategy is assessed individually, and then combined into six "strategy bundles" to determine the potential cumulative effects that could be achieved. Each strategy is analyzed based on its effectiveness of reducing GHG emissions against a baseline, which for 2010 to 2050 is 104 percent of 2005 emissions. The analysis of the different bundles found that the strategies that contribute the most to GHG reductions are local and regional pricing and regulatory strategies that increase the costs of single occupancy vehicle travel, regulatory strategies that reduce and enforce speed limits, educational strategies to encourage eco-driving behavior that achieves better fuel efficiency, land use and smart growth strategies that reduce travel distances, and multimodal strategies that expand travel options. The analysis also shows that some combinations of strategies could create synergies that enhance the potential reductions of individual measures. In particular, land use changes combined with expanded transit services achieve stronger GHG reductions than when only one option is implemented.
ICF International (2008). Integrating Climate Change into the Transportation Planning Process. Prepared for the Federal Highway Administration. Available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/resources_and_publications/integrating_climate_change/
With GHG emissions causing changes to the climate, transportation agencies recently began to see the need to incorporate mitigation and adaptation opportunities into their planning activities. Current discussion of climate change in transportation plans ranges from cursory to comprehensive but more often refer to mitigation rather than adaptation. Although agencies face no statutory barriers to incorporating climate change into their long range transportation plans, small agencies in particular could benefit from involvement and guidance from federal agencies on climate change issues and see accurate and regional emissions inventories as another significant need. One of the most promising strategies for reducing transportation GHG emissions through transportation planning is integrated transportation and land use planning, though it presents some limitations. Metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs) do not generally have enough authority to implement such a strategy independently, but can engage other agency partners to draft a climate action plan that targets reduced GHG emissions. Adaptation to climate change lags among MPOs and DOTs, largely because they lack requisite information about the nature, scale, and timeframe of anticipated climate change impacts. This trend will likely change as additional studies generate more precise estimates of climate change impacts.
Savonis, M.J., V.R. Burkett, and J.R. Potter (2008). Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7 of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Available at: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/sap4-7-final-all.pdf
This research effort, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) examines the anticipated impacts of climate change on the transportation systems that stretch from Houston, TX, to Mobile, AL. The anticipated effects of climate change for this region are similar to those predicted nationally, and include elevating temperatures, rising sea level, and increases in storm frequency and intensity (although the direction of change for overall rainfall levels is unclear). The primary applied impacts of these effects on transportation include degradation of materials under higher temperatures, disruption of service due to flooding events, and damage to infrastructure from SLR-related inundation and storm surges. The authors suggest that, although state and local transportation engineers will have to assess and address these impacts on a facility-specific basis, broader efforts now can help minimize the impacts of climate change on transportation systems. In particular, long range transportation planning should consider a timeframe commensurate with the expected useful life of infrastructure, which is generally longer than the 20 to 30 year windows commonly used by transportation agencies. Planning efforts should also integrate climate change into meeting the existing challenges of safety, congestion, and environmental stewardship. In order to do this, transportation agencies will need to work collaboratively with the scientific community to develop higher-resolution climate change models that are accurate on regional and sub-regional levels.
Transportation Research Board (2008). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation. Transportation Research Board Special, Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation, Report 290. Available at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/sr/sr290.pdf
This Transportation Research Board Special Report summarizes the scientific consensus on climate change effects, their anticipated impacts on U.S. transportation systems, and recommended adaptation strategies for transportation agencies. The effects of climate change have already begun and will continue to escalate over the next several decades as a result of GHG emissions that have already been released into the atmosphere. The report estimates that the most relevant impacts of climate change for U.S transportation will be rising peak and mean temperatures (5.4°F to 9.0°F by 2099), rising sea levels (7.1 to 23.2 inches by 2099, not including uplift along the New England Coast), and increased intensity and frequency of precipitation. Although coastal transportation systems are most at risk to these impacts, transportation infrastructure in both coastal and inland areas may be susceptible to damage from more dramatic heat extremes and weather events. As a result, the authors recommend that transportation agencies inventory critical infrastructure in light of projected climate change impacts and incorporate such impacts into long-term design, maintenance, operations, and emergency plans. Members from the transportation and scientific communities should also collaborate to generate the climate data needed for transportation planning, which could be incorporated into decision support tools like scenario planning.
U.S. Department of Transportation (2010). Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 1 Synthesis Report, Report to Congress. Available at http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/32000/32700/32779/DOT_Climate_Change_Report_-_April_2010_-_Volume_1_and_2.pdf
The in-use GHG emissions from transportation (which does not include transportation lifecycle processes like fuel or vehicle production) represents 29 percent of the U.S.'s total GHG emissions, though transportation accounts for about one half of the U.S.'s increase in GHG emissions since 1990. This report identifies several strategies for U.S. transportation to reduce its contribution to global GHG emissions that can be implemented at different levels of government. While federal and state agencies can promote the use of low-carbon fuels and more efficient vehicles, agencies at all levels to work to improve overall system efficiency and encourage cleaner forms of travel. These strategies (and their associated GHG reduction factors) include lower speed limits (two percent), pricing strategies like increased fuel taxes or pay-as-you-drive insurance (three percent), land use changes increased availability of alternate travel modes (two to five percent by 2030; three to ten percent by 2050), and education efforts to encourage more efficient driving habits (one to four percent). Transportation and planning agencies can also promote more integrated planning strategies that support compact, mixed-use development with greater modal choice in order to reduce trip distance and frequency and increase transportation efficiency. Transportation planning, in particular, provides many opportunities for the federal government to help state and local governments address their transportation system's role in climate change.
MASSACHUSETTS STATE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
Eastern Research Groups, Inc (2010). Cost-Effective Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Massachusetts: An Analysis of 2020 Potential. Available at http://www.mass.gov/dep/air/climate/erg2020.pdf.
Federal and state policies enacted and planned since 2007 put Massachusetts on the path to achieve a 19 percent reduction in emissions by 2020. This report looks at the potential for further cost-effective GHG emissions reductions beyond the state's existing GHG reduction policies. To identify potential reductions, the study analyzed readily quantifiable measures that could be taken at low or zero cost, or at a net savings to the state, for the major emitting sectors - transportation, electricity, residential and commercial buildings, industry, and solid waste. For the transportation sector, three sources of potential emissions reductions were analyzed: 1) reducing the growth rate of vehicle miles traveled (VMT), 2) improving vehicle fuel efficiency, and 3) changes in driving behavior to improve miles per gallon. The study concluded that the total cost‐effective potential for reductions in transportation sector emissions in 2020 associated with reduced VMT growth, improved fuel efficiency, and improved driving practices is 4.6 MMtCO2e (million metric tons of CO2 equivalent) of avoided GHG emissions.
Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (2009). Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level: 1990 Baseline and 2020 Business as Usual Projection. Available at http://www.mass.gov/dep/air/climate/1990_2020_final.pdf
The Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act, signed into law in August 2008, established the Climate Protection and Green Economy Act in Massachusetts General Law. This law requires the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to determine the statewide greenhouse gas emissions level in 1990 and reasonably project GHG emissions for 2020 under a business as usual scenario. The state's economy-wide GHG emissions in 1990 were 94 MMTCO2e. The sources of GHG emissions used to determine the 1990 baseline are: combustion of fossil fuels (89.8 MMTCO2e), industrial processes (0.7 MMTCO2e), agriculture (0.4 MMTCO2e), and waste management (3.6 MMTCO2e). Modeling results show that in a business as usual scenario, without any new climate related policies since 2007, emissions would remain relatively steady from the present through 2020 (i.e. 94 MMTCO2e). The DEP used the US Environmental Protection Agency's State GHG Inventory Tool to estimate emissions for both the 1990 baseline and the 2020 projection.
CAPE COD REGIONAL PLANS
Cape Cod Commission (2010). Draft 2010 Barnstable County Cape Cod, Massachusetts Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. Available at http://www.capecodcommission.org/resources/coastalresources/Final_RegMHM_031910.pdf
The Barnstable County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan was created with the 15 local governments of Cape Cod and in consultation with the Regional Multi-Hazard Community Planning Team (MHCPT) in order to identify hazards that affect the region and strategies for mitigating those hazards. The plan includes the impacts of climate change in its definition of hazard, including SLR and increased intensity and frequency of storms and precipitation. In fact, the plan identifies flooding and shoreline change, both of which are likely to be exacerbated by the future effects of climate change, as the two most serious hazards to threaten Cape Cod. Heavy precipitation events and storm surges will increase in frequency and intensity, threatening to incapacitate transportation infrastructure, drinking water supplies, and wastewater facilities. Route 6A, a main evacuation route on Cape Cod, crosses many tidal creeks and marshes, which could isolate the communities that it serves during SLR, storm surge, or heavy precipitation-induced flooding. A potential benefit of future climate change impacts is a reduced likelihood of drought due to a projected five to eight percent increase in precipitation by 2050. This increase in precipitation will also reduce the threat of wildfires on Cape Cod. A secondary impact of increasing temperatures could benefit Cape Cod's economy but also threaten to overwhelm its infrastructure. An increase in the number of very hot days could boost the regions summer vacation population, which would introduce additional strain on transportation and water systems. In order to meet several objectives of the plan that relate to climate change, the Regional MHCPT recommends that agencies develop and adopt regional and local climate adaptation plans.
Cape Cod Commission (2009). Cape Cod Regional Policy Plan. Available at http://www.capecodcommission.org/resources/RPP/052011RPP_web.pdf
The Cape Cod Regional Policy Plan (RPP) is a planning and regulatory document for Barnstable County that identifies a growth policy for Barnstable County. The RPP's stated growth policy is to guide growth toward areas that are adequately supported by infrastructure and away from areas that must be protected for ecological, historical, or other reasons. The RPP identifies 32 goals in the areas of growth management, natural system and human/built systems. For each goal, the RPP recommends actions for the Commission and Cape towns to take, establishes minimum performance standards, and identifies best development practices to achieve the stated goal. The RPP also identifies key resources of regional importance, and contains GIS maps of those resources. Available maps include: regional land use vision, infrastructure and economic development, water resources, open space, significant natural resource areas, waste management facilities, wetlands and buffers, and more.
Cape Cod Commission (2007 and 2010). Regional Transportation Plan. Available at http://www.gocapecod.org/rtp/
The Cape Cod Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) contains overview information as well as projects, programs, and studies for Cape Cod's transportation system extending from the years 2007 through 2030. Cape Cod contains 2,589.73 miles of roads, of which 65.1 percent are owned by local towns and 7.8 percent are owned by Massachusetts DOT Highway. The remaining roads are owned in small percentages by the county, other state and federal agencies, and private entities. The RTP identifies congestion as the region's largest current and future problem, though it also sets safety and security, multimodal accessibility, system maintenance, environmental protection, community orientation, equitability, and cooperation among stakeholders as its goals. Congestion is particularly a problem during the summer, when the proportion of non-Cape Cod registered vehicles along Route 6 nearly doubles. Among the possible strategies for achieving the goals established in the RTP are transit-oriented development, congestion pricing on major routes, deployment of alternative modes of transportation, and transportation planning that emphasizes local development.
Bartholomew, K. (2005). Integrating Land Use Issues into Transportation Planning: Scenario Planning. University of Utah, prepared for Federal Highway Administration. Available at http://faculty.arch.utah.edu/bartholomew/SP_SummaryRpt_Web.pdf
Scenario planning processes have recently been employed by a number of U.S. cities, towns, and MPOs to evaluate quantitative impacts of possible development outcomes. Scenario planning evolved out of military and business applications, where it was used to evaluate relationships between external influences and assess a range of options. Traditional transportation planning, on the other hand, largely ignores the interaction between land use patterns and transportation systems. MPOs and local governments most commonly conduct scenario planning exercises, often with the intent of avoiding sprawl and its associated consequences. Given the involvement of MPOs, scenario planning efforts commonly result in a transportation or development plan or policy, though some initiatives do not result in any action. Based on a review of existing literature and scenario planning studies, Bartholomew recommends developing four scenarios in order to avoid the perception that two scenarios represent good and bad, three scenarios represent a high/medium/low ranking, or the overwhelming nature of five or more scenarios. Scenario titles should also not convey a positive or negative bias; Bartholomew cites "Urban Sprawl", "Business as Usual", "Wise Growth", and "Quality of Life" as names that express an agency's preference.
Bartholomew, K., and R. Ewing (2007). Land Use-Transportation Scenario Planning in an Era of Global Climate Change. University of Utah and University of Maryland. Available at http://faculty.arch.utah.edu/bartholomew/Bartholomew_Ewing_Revision.pdf
Transportation is one of the leading and fastest-growing contributors to GHG emissions in the country, in no small part due to historical land use patterns. Urban sprawl has increased VMT while reducing the acreage of forest that can capture CO2 emissions. Compact land development can potentially curb these trends, the benefits of which can be quantified through a scenario planning process that compares a status quo development future to a range of feasible alternatives. An analysis of 23 scenario planning efforts revealed a median VMT reduction of 5.7 percent, at least in part due to a median increase in density of 13.8 percent. Despite these somewhat modest projections, ranges of +5.2 to -31.7 percent change in VMT and -14.8 to +64.3 percent change in density indicate the wide array of possible development alternatives that scenario planning can present. Despite the effectiveness of scenario planning in projecting volume changes as a result of land use changes, the scenario planning efforts surveyed for this report generally lacked accurate analyses of the CO2 emissions reductions that could be expected to accompany those changes. The authors suggest that regional scenario planning efforts should integrate all factors that have the potential to influence travel patterns.
Ashton, A.D., J.P. Donnelly, and R.L. Evans. A Discussion of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Shorelines of the Northeastern USA. Prepared for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, Union of Concerned Scientists by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Available at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/tech/ashton_et_al.pdf.
Brekke, L.D. et al. (2009). Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective. U.S. Geological Survey. Circular 1331. Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/Circ1331.pdf.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (2009). Transportation Adaptation to Global Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: Bipartisan Policy Center. Available at http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Transportation%20Adaptation%20(3).pdf.
Cape Cod Commission (2007). Cape Cod Emergency Preparedness Handbook. Available at http://www.capecodcommission.org/index.php?id=151.
Cape Cod Commission (2009). Cape Cod Traffic Counting Report 2009. Available at http://www.gocapecod.org/counts/pdf_count/TCR2009.pdf.
Clarke, L.E. et al. (2007). Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentration. U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a. Available at http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/finalreport/sap2-1a-final-all.pdf.
Climate Change Work Group (2008). The Role of Coastal Zone Management Programs in Adaptation to Climate Change. Coastal States Organization. Available at http://www.coastalstates.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/CSO-2008-Climate-Change-Report2.pdf.
Coastal Hazards Commission (2007). Preparing for the Storm: Recommendations for Management of Risk from Coastal Hazards in Massachusetts. Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. Available at http://www.mass.gov/czm/chc/recommendations/chc_final_report_2007.pdf.
Coastal Services Center (2009). Hazard Exposure Information for Barnstable County, MA. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Available at http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/CountySnapshots/reports/CountySnapshot_25001.pdf (inactive link).
Committee for Study on Transportation Research Programs to Address Energy and Climate Change (2009). A Transportation Research Program for Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change and Conserving Energy. Transportation Research Board Special Report 299. Available at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/sr/sr299.pdf.
Commonwealth of Massachusetts (2010). Draft Climate Implementation Plan: A framework for meeting the 2020 and 2050 goals of the Global Warming Solutions Act. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. Available at http://www.mass.gov/dep/air/climate/draftcip.pdf.
Cox, J. et al. (2006). Social Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Neighborhood Analysis of the Northeast U.S. Megaregion. Union of Concerned Scientists Northeast Climate Change Impact Study. Available at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/tech/cox_et_al.pdf.
Dempsety, R., and A. Fisher (2005). Information Tools for Community Adaptation to Changes in Climate or Land Use. Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment.
Environment Northeast (2006). Climate Change Roadmap for New England and Eastern Canada: Chapter 2, Transportation: 132-196. Available at http://www.env-ne.org/public/resources/pdf/Roadmap_Transportation_Chapter.pdf.
Environmental Protection Agency (2010). Climate Change Indicators in the United States. Available at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/index.html.
Fogarty, M. et al. (2007). Potential Climate Change Impacts on Marine Resources of the Northeastern United States. Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment. Available at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/miti/fogarty_et_al.pdf.
Frederick, K. (1997). Water Resources and Climate Change. Climate Issues Brief No. 3. Available at http://www.rff.org/rff/documents/rff-ccib-03.pdf.
Grant, M. et al. (2010). Assessing Mechanisms for Integrating Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Reduction Objectives into Transportation Decision Making. NCHRP Web-Only Document 152. Available at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_w152.pdf.
Gutierrez, B.T., J.S. Williams, and R.E. Theiler (2009). Basic Approaches for Shoreline Change Projections. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region: 239-242. Available at http://climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-1/final-report/sap4-1-final-report-Appendix2.pdf.
Haas, P. et al. (2010). Transit Oriented Development and The Potential for VMT-related Greenhouse Gas Emissions Growth Reduction. Prepared by the Center for Neighborhood Technology for the Center for Transit Oriented Development. Available at http://www.cnt.org/repository/TOD-Potential-GHG-Emissions-Growth.FINAL.pdf.
Hayhoe, K. et al. (2006). Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Available at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/tech/hayhoe_et_al_climate_dynamics_2006.pdf.
Hayhoe, K., et al. (2007). Regional Climate Change Projects for the Northeast U.S. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, June 2008: 425-436. Available at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/miti/hayhoe_et_al.pdf.
Kirshen, P. et al. (2004). Infrastructure Systems, Services and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area. Tufts University, University of Maryland, Boston University, and Metropolitan Area Planning Council. Available at http://www.pewtrusts.org/uploadedFiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/Reports/Global_warming/040813Climate_Change_Boston.pdf.
Lowe, J. A. and J. M. Gregory (2010). A sea of uncertainty: How well can we predict future sea level rise? Nature Reports Climate Change, April 2010: 42-43. Available at http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1004/full/climate.2010.29.html.
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (2009). Cape Cod Emergency Traffic Plan. Available at http://www.mass.gov/eopss/home-sec-emerg-resp/response/ccetp/.
Masterson, J.P. (2004). Simulated Interaction Between Freshwater and Saltwater and Effects of Ground-Water Pumping and Sea-Level Change, Lower Cape Cod Aquifer System, Massachusetts. U.S. Geological Survey. Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5014. Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2004/5014/pdf/sir200405014.pdf.
Meyer, M.D. (2008). Design Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: The Implications of Climate Change. Georgia Institute of Technology. Available at http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/32000/32100/32150/sr290Meyer.pdf.
Moomaw, W. and L. Johnston (2007). Emissions Mitigation Opportunities and Practice in Northeastern United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, June 2008: 615-642. Available at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pdf/miti/moomaw_and_johnston.pdf.
Nakićenović, N. et al. (2000). IPCC Special Report, Emissions Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf.
New England Regional Assessment (2002). U.S. Global Change Research Program. Available at http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/2001-NERA-Foundation-Doc.html.
O'Connell, J.F. and S. Justus (2009). Model Bylaw For Effectively Managing Coastal Floodplain Development. Woods Hole Sea Grant, University of Hawaii Sea Grant, and the Cape Cod Commission. Available at http://www.capecodcommission.org/resources/bylaws/Coastal_Floodplain_Bylaw_Dec2009.pdf.
Rahmstorf, S. (2010). A new view on sea level rise. Nature Reports Climate Change, April 2010: 44-45. Available at http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1004/full/climate.2010.29.html.
Ramsey, J. et al. (2005). South Shore Coastal Hazards Characterization Atlas Description of Variables. Prepared for Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management by Applied Coastal Research and Engineering, Inc. Available at http://www.mass.gov/czm/hazards/ss_atlas/pdf/ss_atlas_variables_report.pdf.
Suarez, P. et al. (2005). Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A systemwide performance assessment of the Boston Metro Area. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, May 2005: 231-244. Available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920905000155.
Theiler, R. et al. (2003). The Future of Falmouth's South Shore. Report of the Coastal Resources Working Group to the Board of Selectmen, Falmouth, MA. Available at http://www.falmouthmass.us/coastal/crwg_falmouth_report.pdf.
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2008). Human Health and Welfare in a Changing Climate: Summary and Findings of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Available at http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-6/final-report/sap4-6-brochure-FAQ.pdf.
United States Global Change Research Program (2009). Regional Climate Impacts: Northeast. 107-110. Available at http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/northeast.pdf.
Venner, M and Santalucia, A. (2010). Environmental Corridor Management. NCHRP 25-25/63. Available at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/docs/NCHRP25-25%2863%29_FR.pdf.