Albany, NY Workshop - September 2008
MPO Planning and Climate Change Considerations
Chris O'Neill
Capital District Transportation Committee
September 24, 2008
COLLOQUY
ON THE COMING TRANSFORMATION OF TRAVEL
A special project initiated by the New York State Metropolitan Planning Organization Association in 2005
Colloquy:
- Examine factors influencing shifts in travel over 30 – 50 year period
- Colloquy concept
- Convened a three day structured conference with
- Over three dozen national experts from public, private sectors, academia
- Structured dialogue toward consensus
Products of Colloquy
- Consensus statements, anticipate change:
- Demographics
- Economics
- Public Policy
- Urban Growth
- Technology
- Circumstances that would undermine expectations
- Core of planning findings and recommendations
Let's Move Away From This...
We plan as if we know the future and make precise forecasts or assume it's not our job and ignore the issues.
We focus on details of limited significance and miss the big picture.
To This...
We recognize that we cannot make precise forecasts
We engage the public in discussions of vision and vulnerability.
We sort out what we can affect from what we cannot, what we want to
achieve from what we want to avoid and plan and invest accordingly.
"Underminers"
- Climate change
- Increasing public recognition of the emerging crisis
- Impacts to the economy
- Fuel supply and cost vulnerability
- Increased support for transit
- Funding crisis, State and Federal levels
- Public attitudes are changing about transportation– an opportunity for MPO leadership
How has CDTC Integrated climate change considerations into the planning process?
New Visions 2030 Plan
- Fostering visioning
- Developing a regional consensus; engaging the public
- Integrating land use regionally
Scenario Planning:
Integrating Land Use and Development Scenarios with Transportation Plans
New Visions Scenarios
- Two Concentrated Growth Scenarios:
- Manageable congestion
- Improved transit service
- Reduced dependence on driving
- Protect open space
- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
- Compact development increases walking and bicycling
- Vibrant urban places
- Important job growth in cities
- "Quality Region"
New Visions for a Quality Region: .
A transportation plan with non-traditional recommendations– with strong public support.
- Remarkable support from the business community for smart growth
- Smart growth is vital to the economy
- Urban Revitalization Initiatives Required
- urban decline with suburban growth not tolerable
- Invest in the urban areas; not just transportation
- Suburban Community Planning Essential
- gain, not loss of community fabric desired with growth
- support for stronger suburban planning
- Economic Advancement for All Residents
- equitable access to opportunity
- Land use implications; multimodal implications
- Urban investment implications
- Mobility with Modal Options Important
- Invest in Bus Rapid Transit
- Land use-Transportation Planning Linkage
- Invest in Future VMT Reduction
- Regional land use design, smart growth strategies– smart growth reduces VMT growth
- Most effective for greenhouse gas reduction, air quality, reducing carbon footprint
- AND--Best scenario for preparing this region for the consequences of global warming
- Strong policy statement that the region will not build any major new highways; focus on congestion management, demand management
- Encourage smart growth– land use and transportation linkage program—engage local communities
- Urban Investment Policies– Transportation, and regional development
- Big ticket initiatives focus on transit, urban investment, 100 miles of BRT, 300 miles of greenways, bike ped
New Visions for a Quality Region
- Forecast Future VMT Reduction
- Our forecasts assume we will be successful in our New Visions Plan;
15% reduction in future PM peak hour trip generation compared with trend
- Planners and engineers do not have a crystal ball; in fact gas prices and climate change are two of the many unknowns
- If we assume failure of the Plan, it will be a self enforcing prophesy, since forecasts are used in design
Scenario Planning is one way to confront the uncertainty of forecasts;
It led to a regional consensus on smart growth.
- Regular Growth, concentrated:.
20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from future status quo, Plan no-build
- High Growth, Concentrated: .
9% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from future status quo, Plan no-build (with 18% higher households)
- Comparison with current year depends on vehicle technology changes
- Climate change,
- Gasoline prices,
- Resulting changing public attitudes toward transit, land use; and
- State and federal fiscal crisis
Represent tremendous challenges--
But also give the MPOs an opportunity for leadership
MPO Planning and Climate Change Considerations
Chris O'Neill
Capital District Transportation Committee
September 24, 2008
