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A Framework for Considering Climate Change in Transportation and Land Use Scenario Planning

Figure 20 Text Description

This diagram shows the proposed process to follow for using scenario planning to incorporate climate change into transportation and land use planning. The diagram is organized into four columns: decisions or inputs, phases or steps, questions or considerations, and potential outputs or outcomes, where the eight phases/steps are the main organizing element. The diagram starts at the top with the choice to pursue the approach and continues through goal identification, data collection, communication to others, scenario development, assessment, and final outcomes.

The first phase/step is to elect to pursue a scenario planning effort to address transportation, land use, and climate change. Questions/considerations include: can we devote sufficient staff time, resources? Do we have sufficient data quantity and quality? Where are we in our planning processes? How do we want the results of this effort to inform our planning processes? Potential outputs/outcomes include a multi-agency working group and/or work plan.

The second phase/step is to determine goals, intended outputs, and expected outcomes. Decisions include how long is this going to take and who should be involved? Questions/considerations include: Why are we commencing this process? What do we expect to get out of it? What are our goals? How do we expect this process to help us reach those goals? How do we want the results of this effort to inform our planning processes? Potential outputs/outcomes include goals, intended outputs, and/or expected outcomes.

The third phase/step is to perform data assessment and collection. Inputs include climate change effects, GHG emissions, transportation, and performance measures. Questions/considerations include: What baseline data to do we need? What data limitations do we have? How will we acknowledge/account for these limitations? Potential outputs/outcomes include a data inventory, Baseline Transportation and Land Use Model, and/or Growth and Climate Change Projections.

The fourth phase/step is to communicate and verify data. Questions/considerations include: Are stakeholders comfortable with our data sources and projections? If not, how can they be changed to ensure a satisfactory level of comfort? Potential Outputs/Outcomes include Final Baseline Model and Projections.

The fifth phase/step is to choose a scenario planning approach and software tool. Inputs could include risk-Mitigation-Focused Scenario Planning and/or Land Use and Transportation Scenario Planning. Questions/Considerations include: How can different approaches to scenario planning help us achieve our goals? What are the outputs of each approach to scenario planning?

The sixth phase/step is to conduct preliminary data analysis. A decision is what variables will be used in developing scenarios? Questions/Considerations include: How do we want to evaluate the performance of scenarios? Do we need to develop preliminary scenarios to serve as a basis of comparison? Potential Outputs/Outcomes include performance indicators and preliminary scenarios (baseline, trend, extreme growth).

The seventh phase/step is to conduct educational outreach about scenario planning. Questions/Considerations include: Do stakeholders understand how scenario planning will be used and why it will be helpful? What are the useful materials to prepare ahead of time? Potential Outputs/Outcomes include reference materials for stakeholder workshop/scenario planning exercise.

The eighth and last phase/step is to host scenario planning workshop/exercises. Decisions include: Who should participate and how many workshops are necessary? Over what time period? Questions/Considerations include: What is the agenda? How much time is necessary to conduct the exercise and to allow the software tool to analyze and consolidate the results?

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Updated: 12/23/2016
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