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P3 Toolkit

Analytical Tools

P3-VALUE: Risk Assessment Tool User Manual

December 30, 2013

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Chapter 2. Quick-Start Guide

While the User Manual provides detailed guidance on the Risk Assessment Tool, users may also refer to the "Quick-Start" version below for step-by-step instructions.

ACCESSING THE RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL
  1. Open the RISK tool.
    Note: Minimum system requirements for using the tool include Windows and Excel 2007 or newer.
  2. Click "Enable Editing" and/or "Enable Content" on yellow bar across top of screen.
  3. Read the disclaimer and instructions.
  4. Click "I accept."
MANAGING THE INPUT FIELDS
  1. Navigate to the "Model Assumptions" tab.
    This sheet contains project data that provides the basis for determining the values in the quantitative risk assessment.

    Input assumptions in the light-blue cells.
    1. Input estimated costs (in dollars) for construction, operation, maintenance and delays.
      Note: Only the assumptions regarding delay costs affect the outputs.
    2. Input estimated length (in months) of each phase.
    3. Input estimated toll rate and revenue losses (in dollars) and traffic volume.
  2. Navigate to the "Risk Register" tab.
    The outcomes from each stage of the risk assessment process are captured here.

    Input data in the light-blue cells.
    Note: Users should complete the risk register at least once from the public sector perspective and save a version of the tool. To obtain risk values from the private sector perspective, users can either repeat the process from the private sector's perspective, or make a general assumption, such as "all risk values are 15 percent lower from the private perspective."
    1. Complete the "Risk Identification" section.
      1. Enter the risk number.
      2. Select the risk category from the drop-down menu.
        Note: See the "Definitions" tab for descriptions of the available risk categories.
      3. Select the impact phase from the drop-down menu.
        Note: If a risk event has the potential to impact multiple project phases, users must enter that risk for each phase separately.
      4. Select the risk type (opportunity or threat) from the drop-down menu.
      5. Input a description of the risk.
      6. Input a description of potential consequences of the risk occurring.
    2. Complete the "Qualitative Risk Assessment" section.
      Note: See the "Risk Assessment Matrix" tab for guidance in determining probabilities and consequences for this section.
      1. Select the probability rating from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high) from the drop-down menu.
      2. Select the cost consequence of the risk occurring from 1 (not severe) to 5 (severe) from the drop-down menu.
      3. Select the schedule consequence of the risk occurring from 1 (not severe) to 5 (severe) from the drop-down menu.
    3. Complete the "Quantitative Risk Assessment" section.
      Note: Risk quantification is only necessary for those risks with "medium," "high," or "very high" risk ratings from step b) above.
      1. Input the probability of the risk occurring as a percentage (0% - 100%).
      2. Select the appropriate probability distribution (triangular or uniform) for the risk's schedule impact from the drop-down menu.
        Note: See the "Definitions" tab for an explanation of the distributions.
      3. Input minimum and maximum schedule impacts (in days) for uniform distribution, or minimum, most likely, and maximum schedule impacts for triangular distribution.
      4. Select the appropriate probability distribution (triangular or uniform) for the risk's cost impact from the drop-down menu.
        Note: See the "Definitions" tab for an explanation of the distributions.
      5. Input minimum and maximum cost impacts (in real dollars) for uniform distribution, or minimum, most likely, and maximum cost impacts for triangular distribution.
    4. Complete the "Allocation & Mitigation" section.
      1. Input the allocation of risk between the public and private sectors as a percentage (0% - 100%). The sum of those two cells must equal 100 percent for each risk.
      2. Input potential mitigation strategies for addressing each risk.
        Note: The proposed mitigation strategies do not factor into the outputs.
OUTPUTS
  1. Navigate to the "COST IMPACT OUTPUTS" TAB.
  2. Enter a value from 300 - 1,000 for the number of iterations, CLICK "run simulation."
  3. Review the cost impacts.
    This sheet displays the total cost impacts generated from the risk assessment process. Note the risk impacts at various percentiles, across project phases, and the cumulative allocation between public and private.
  4. NAVIGATE TO THE "COST RISK SENSITIVITY" TAB.
    This sheet displays the 10 most significant risks, ranked from greatest to least cost impacts.
  5. NAVIGATE TO THE "schedule impact output" TAB.
    This sheet displays the total schedule impacts generated from the risk assessment process. Note the risk impacts at various percentiles, across project phases, and the cumulative allocation between public and private.
  6. NAVIGATE TO THE "SCHEDULE RISK SENSITIVITY" TAB.
    This sheet displays the 10 most significant risks, ranked from greatest to least schedule impacts.

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