Motor Fuel Accomplishments and Challenges:

PowerPoint presentation: DataQandV.ppt

Data Quality and Verification: - Slide 1

Office of Highway Policy Information - Federal Highway Administration

Why Verify? - Slide 2

• Verification versus Reviews: 1) MF reviews look at process 2) Verification looks at specific numbers
• Old system is hand-entry of the data
• Nobody's perfect
• Motor Fuels team checks and re-checks
• Errors still possible

Correspondence - Slide 3

Verification Memo

• Dated:
• Response due April 15
• Virtually assured data will change

Second round

• If no changes in the first round - FYI
• If changes in the first round - re-check

How to evaluate - Slide 4

• Compare State 551M monthly to the MF-33GA (gas and gasohol) and the MF-33SF (diesel and other special fuels)
• Sum all the months in the year and check against the MF-21
  • Gasoline Total Consumption column
  • Special Fuel Private and Commercial Highway Use column
• Note - there are reasons these don't always match

Table MF-21- Motor Fuel Use - Slide 5

• Summary of the FHWA annual analysis
• Draft attribution data
• Available for review and correction
• Becomes the MF-27 (finalized)
• As MF-27, used to attribute federal highway revenue to the States

MF-21: A Closer Look - I - Slide 6

Starting point: two-thirds over from the left

• Special fuels column
  • Data taken from State data
  • Removed all non-highway gallons
• That's it for special fuels
• Gasoline
  • Remember: gasoline/gasohol combined
  • Start at column Total Consumption: agrees with total on MF-33GA

MF-21: A Closer Look - II - Slide 7

Next column to the left: Losses

• Depends on State legislation
  • None
  • Flat percent losses
  • Actual losses
  • Complicated combinations
• Limited to one percent of total consumption plus actual losses

New procedures in place

MF-21: A Closer Look - III - Slide 8

Non-highway Use

• Two non-highway types
  • Private and Commercial
  • Public
• Two treatments
  • P&C either State or model data
  • Public is all model results

Breakdown by P&C type in Table MF-24

MF-21: A Closer Look - IV - Slide 9

Public on-highway use

• Two types
  • Federal civilian use
  • State, County, Municipal, and Native American government use

All data generated from FHWA models

Note: Total Highway Use column is combined gasoline\gasohol used in attribution

Summary - Slide 10

Verification:

• Is different than Process Review
• Final State data for attribution
• Should not substitute for checking the data
  • Month-by-month
  • With future techniques

Modeling Data - Slide 11

• Why FHWA models data
  • Consistency among States
  • Data not otherwise available
• Model off-highway gasoline
  • P&C gasoline off-highway
  • Public gasoline off-highway
• Relatively small impact

.Modeling Data - Slide 12

Gasohol Model

• Relatively large impact
• Why an issue
  • Federal/State definition differences
  • States don't report by federal definition
  • Attribution impact
    • Federal revenue
    • Incentives

Modeling Gasohol - Slide 13

How the current model works

• IRS reports total gasohol revenue
• States providing reasonably good gasohol data are allocated their share of gallons derived from IRS data
• States with no gasohol are allocated zero gallons of gasohol
• States not in either of these categories are allocated the remaining gallons derived from

Modeling Gasohol - Slide 14

Regression analysis:

• Dependent variable: number of ethanol gallons consumed
• Independent variables:
  • Ethanol plant proximity
  • Producer's incentive amount
  • VMT in State non-attainment areas proportionate to State VMT
  • Blender's incentive amount
  • Total gasoline consumed in the State

Modeling Gasohol - Slide 15

• Sum the estimated amounts derived from the regression calculation
• Derive each estimated amount's percentage of the total estimated
• Multiply these percentages by the IRS remaining control total
• Derive the distribution for each State's three levels of gasohol

Modeling Gasohol - Slide 16

Model issues

• Over emphasizes proximity to gasohol production
• Conversion from MTBE to ethanol will spread gasohol use
• Model needs improvements

Modeling Gasohol Summary - Slide 17

• Significant impacts
• State data necessary but not sufficient
• Needs improvements before re-authorization