Procedures for Forecasting and Backcasting Traffic Loading Data Project 1 - Strategic Plan - Analysis - LTPP - Pavements

Procedures for Forecasting and Backcasting Traffic Loading Data Project 1: Development of Methods and Models Using Existing Data (Phase I)

Problem Number: 1C1

Research Problem Statement:

The 2002 Pavement Design Guide will require prediction of axle load distributions. There are currently no methods to do this. Current research will develop minimal methods for this but the wealth of experience with traffic planning models is not being considered. This project will fill this gap.

Research Objective and Tasks:

Task 1: Develop a system for predicting baseline axle load distributions from road use factors to be determined -- for example, site type; land use and geography; vehicle and axle load regulations, legal and permitted; their coverage of demographic, economics, and technological trends; and any other relevant factors.

Task 2: Develop a system for predicting the growth and change of axle-load distributions with time.

Task 3: Validate the models.

Task 4: Develop an interim traffic load estimation guide.

Estimate of Problem Funding and Research Period:

Recommended Funding: $250,000
Research Period: 12 Months

Urgency, Payoff Potential, and Implementation:

This work has the potential to have significant impact on improving pavement design. The Pavement Design Guide will require prediction of axle load distributions.

Relationship to Other Proposed LTPP Analysis Projects:

The 2002 NCHRP 1-39 Traffic Data Collection, Analysis, and Forecasting for Mechanistic Pavement Design.
Estimating Cumulative Traffic Loads by Jerry Hajek and Olga Selezneva (ongoing)

This problem needs to be pursued BEFORE the following proposed problems: None

This problem should not be pursued until AFTER the following projects/problems are completed: None

Data Collection Analysis Products Pooled Fund Studies Operations/Analysis Feedback Reports LTPP Customer Survey	Procedures for Forecasting and Backcasting Traffic Loading Data Project 1: Development of Methods and Models Using Existing Data (Phase I) Problem Number: 1C1 Research Problem Statement: The 2002 Pavement Design Guide will require prediction of axle load distributions. There are currently no methods to do this. Current research will develop minimal methods for this but the wealth of experience with traffic planning models is not being considered. This project will fill this gap. Research Objective and Tasks: Task 1: Develop a system for predicting baseline axle load distributions from road use factors to be determined -- for example, site type; land use and geography; vehicle and axle load regulations, legal and permitted; their coverage of demographic, economics, and technological trends; and any other relevant factors. Task 2: Develop a system for predicting the growth and change of axle-load distributions with time. Task 3: Validate the models. Task 4: Develop an interim traffic load estimation guide. Estimate of Problem Funding and Research Period: Recommended Funding: $250,000 Research Period: 12 Months Urgency, Payoff Potential, and Implementation: This work has the potential to have significant impact on improving pavement design. The Pavement Design Guide will require prediction of axle load distributions. Relationship to Other Proposed LTPP Analysis Projects: The 2002 NCHRP 1-39 Traffic Data Collection, Analysis, and Forecasting for Mechanistic Pavement Design. Estimating Cumulative Traffic Loads by Jerry Hajek and Olga Selezneva (ongoing) This problem needs to be pursued BEFORE the following proposed problems: None This problem should not be pursued until AFTER the following projects/problems are completed: None	More Information Completed/Active Projects Expanded Strategic Plan in HTML NCHRP Projects Pavement Publications Preliminary Analysis Project Statements Strategic Plan in PDF Events View all Upcoming Pavements Events Contact Customer Service 202-493-3035 E-mail Customer
	This page last modified on 06/02/06

Procedures for Forecasting and Backcasting Traffic Loading Data Project 1: Development of Methods and Models Using Existing Data (Phase I)

Problem Number: 1C1

Research Problem Statement:

Research Objective and Tasks:

Estimate of Problem Funding and Research Period:

Urgency, Payoff Potential, and Implementation:

More Information

Events

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