Good afternoon and good morning to those of you on the west coast.
And welcome to the Talking Freight Seminar Series.
My name is Jennifer Seplow.
Today we'll have three speakers, Teng Ad joined the Highway Administration Office in April of this year in the Freight Office his main responsibility is to run the Freight Modeling Improvement Program.
At the resource center, Dr. Tapping served as air quality management.
His main focuses are motorcycle emission modeling in conjunction with transportation conformity issues.
He's worked in the transportation industry in a wide range of positions, including senior environmental specialist, project engineer, project manager, and program manager.
He is a registered professional engineer in Georgia.
Dr. T. Randall Curley, is a distinguished research staff member in Nashville, Tennessee and an Adjunct Professor in economics at the University of Tennessee.
He received his Ph.D. in economics from Purdue University and is the author of three books and more than 100 other publications.
The focus of his research is on energy, transportation and waste management.
Dr. Curley lead the development of the Ohio River Development Model.
Which the core uses to improve inland navigation infrastructure.
He and his team continue to work with the core navigation technologies program and he leads work for the Tennessee Department of Transportation to measure the economic benefits of public transit.
Dr. Curley also leads OR/NL support of the framework and the Freight Model Improvement Program which promotes new freight analysis framework.
Dr. Curley's presentation today provides an overview of the Freight Improvement Program.
Luke Cheng has over 20 years experience, specializing in travel forecast for passenger and freight systems.
He is currently Vice President for Citilabs, Inc.
Prior to this position, he served as Planning Manager for the L.A. County MTA where he oversaw the development of a truck freight movement forecasting model and provided support to other travel demand modeling activities.
Before that he served as director of Wilbur Smith Associates Ltd in Hong Kong, Principal for Wilbur Smith Associates in New Haven, Connecticut,
transportation engineer for the city of Upland, California, and Transportation Planner for the National Planning Commission.
I should also mention that today Mr. Cheng is calling in from Beijing, China where it's about 1:30 in the morning.
I'd now like to go over a few logistical details before starting the seminar.
Today's seminar is 90 minutes, with 60 minutes allocated for the speakers.
The operator will give you instructions on how to ask the questions over the phone during the Q&A period.
If during the presentations you think of a question, you can type it into the smaller text box underneath the chat area on the lower right-side of your screen.
Please make sure you are typing in the thin text box and not the large white area.
Please make sure you send your question to all participant so is that everybody can see your question.
The presenters will be unable to answer their questions during their presentations, but I will use some of those questions to start off the Q&A session in the last half hour of the seminar.
If we don't get through all the questions they will be posted to the freight planning listserve.
It's a place where you can post questions to find out what other subscribers have learned in the area of freight planning, you haven't already joined the listserve, can you do so at the address provided on the slide on your screen.
This session is being recorded.
A file containing the audio and visual portions of the seminar will be posted to the Talking Freight website in the next week.
Recorded files are available for viewing and listening purposes only and cannot be saved to your own computer.
I'll be sending out an e-mail when the recording becomes available as well as the PowerPoint presentations which you'll be able to download.
I encourage you to direct others in your office that may not have been able to attend the seminar to access the recording.
What we're going to do is hang on a few minutes until about 1:00 and then just to give others I chance to join in.
At 1:00, we'll start with the first presentation of the seminar.
Liz, for now, if we could put everybody into hold and we'll start up in a few minutes.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.
We've had a few others join us, so we're going to go ahead and get started.
Today's topic for those of you who did just join us is Freight Models State of the Practice and Needs for Improvement.
If you do think of questions during the presentation feel free to type them in in the chat area.
They will be addressed during all three presentations.
Our first presentation of the day will be that of Tianjia Tang.
Go ahead and get started.
Good afternoon, good morning if you're on the west coast.
I am with the Office of Freight Management and Operations here at the Federal Highway Administration in Washington, D.C.
Before I start with my presentation, I will review two websites for you.
The first one is fmit.gov.
This is an intra-agency effort among Federal Highway, U.S. Army Corp. of Engineers led by Federal Highway Administration postdated and operated by National Labs.
The second one is the freight analysis framework side at www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight.
It's also known as FAV.
Currently we are working on the second generation of FAV.
I will give you another presentation on FAVII in the very near future.
Let's get back to my presentation overview.
The outline of my presentation starts with modeling objectives, similar to modeling approach, from there it will cover the methods and will round it up by talking about the challenges we are facing.
For us, modeling objectives, offer extensive review and conversation with folks in the industry, it's very easy to conclude that freight modeling is centered around three main areas,
they are development, they just take and supply, and the transportation planning and engineering.
In the subject areas we do freight modeling.
There are a lot -- a broad spectrum of the people in the organization in the freight modeling industry.
Local, state, government agencies, and federal agencies are all part of the process.
It is very clear that freight models are not carried out by a single entity.
My presentation will be focussed on transportation planning and engineering, which is mainly the public domain.
Well, with the transportation planning, exactly what issue are we dealing with.
Accords to the most recent, that is about 3 months ago, there are two major issues involving freight modeling.
One is on the level where we're dealing with a group of projects, then issues associated with the projects, that is one project at a time.
On the program level, freight modeling has been used in long range transportation plan and transportation improvement program in areas where there is quality issue, freight modeling has also been used in the determination processes.
Freight modeling has been used on the size and weight issue.
On the project level, modeling has been used in aid of the design of a prejudice and roadways.
To result on a specific corridor issue.
It's also been a diversion such as highways to the rail.
Freight modeling has also been used to locating with stations, to optimize the location of parking and rest areas along the state highways.
In the last couple years, freight modeling has also been used in starting Hazmat for roadway corridors.
The bottom line of freight modeling is trying to answer the following questions.
First, the amount of freight goes into my jurisdiction, that means the amount of freight started from outside somewhere and goes inside.
Typically refer the two as external to internal freight movement.
The second one is the freight goes out of my jurisdiction, however, this moment started within my jurisdiction.
This is the internal to external movement.
The third one is the amount of freight that's moved within my jurisdiction.
Number four, the amount of freight moved through my jurisdiction that I facilitate.
That's referred to as internal and external movement.
The last one is to author what kind of weight means, the freight movements are carried out.
Are they carried out by trucks, rails, water, or air?
What mode are we using there?
While we're dealing with freight movement and modeling, it's really important to realize the three different time lines we are dealing with.
That is past, present and future.
After all, it's really unlikely we are trying to solve yesterday's issue, unless yesterday's issue is repeating itself in the future.
So we must pay close attention to the future data.
Based on what I have reviewed.
Is it is really really clear that a good modeling start has a very clear and concise objective.
Free modeling allows people to clearly identify modeling objective is a must.
Also, it it relates to freight modeling, we must be aware of short time planning versus long-term planning.
Let us shift to a different gear and talk about freight modeling approach.
We all know urban modeling, it has been practiced before over ta years, and many consider it a mature science and art.
There's a long history of urban modeling, it's for sure impact our freight modeling.
In reality, freight modeling has borrowed much of the skeleton of urban modeling, which is a simulating behavior established magnetic blocks and by using past and current data to establish some coefficient to link those.
Freight modeling is a large -- trying to simulate behavior.
The four main blocks used by freight modeling are commodity production.
Commodity distribution, moats and traffic assignment.
Although there are exceptions that form blocks.
Those are the most used modes of freight modeling process.
Depending on criteria used, some people will come up with more methods, however, the criteria I use here is unique to freight modeling, basically, there are four methods, commodity based, term best and the imperical statistical approach.
The last one is a print analysis.
The commodity based method generally follows the form blocks.
It is also one of the most widely used methods.
I will devote most of my time covering this method here.
The commodity method started with commodity production, then goes to commodity distribution, from there we do the split for highway parks,
once within the split it will go to the vehicle trip generation, from there we will go to the traffic assignment.
Let's take a look at the production.
We estimate the production consumption -- for example, in my area, how much alcoholic bench do we produce.
And how much alcoholic bench have we consumed.
The unit here is tonnage and dollar amount.
The tonnage is good for loading the truck.
The estimation of production and consumption does not need to be part of the motto.
There are a lot of economic mottos out of there, the key is to link production on the consumption to other economic, demographic data.
Three key things we need to pay close attention to.
Those three key things are oddities, geographic levels.
The last one is the economic activity.
When do you decide -- what did you use to tie those with commodity production.
Commodity based modeling -- the next step is commodity distribution.
The commodity distribution is linked to production to consumption.
That is the answer where our products are going to and where our consumptions are coming from.
The distribution process establish the so-called consumption data.
Depending on commodity and walls how commodity distribution gets computed and allocated, it all depends on the type of data we have.
Some type of data we do not need to distribute.
The distribution may not need it.
For other parts such as production consumption data.
You may need to do further distribution and when you are involved in distribution, the most widely used method is the mode to use, not the other.
Let's take a look at commodity flow survey data here.
As you can see from the slide, we help production by area and column.
We help consumption to buy area, if we summarize, that is the consumption for total consumption for the area.
If we summarize the columns that is total production for that area.
For agencies like this, we may have missing values, we may have missing values, if we have missing values and we are dealing with large areas, we commonly imply loss method.
If you have marginal total data, can you also use the rated portion method known as IPI process, to -- there's a slide that shows commodity production and consumption date that.
We have three columns here, the first one is area, second one is production, consumption.
Clearly we don't know from this table here, we cannot tell where our production will go to and where our consumptions will go to.
That is the case you will need, the distribution tools to distribute the production to the consumption.
And get the consumption from the production.
As I have said earlier, in the practical world, the motto, in one form or another, is the most commonly used method.
Now, we have commodity data, or PC data in hand.
The next thing here is to answer the motto issue.
That is the answer -- how does commodities get moved from the origin to dissension, by trains, trucks water or air?
Which mode are they taking?
For mode determination we rely on real data state-to-state or information for waterborne.
How about for trucks?
We use what is leftover from the total.
What about the model issue here, we have three different issues here, parts, motorists, the current data and the future.
How do we handle the future model issues here?
Typically we do it, for a given commodity, the mode remains unchanged.
However, for the entire industry the mode percentage can still be changed.
Now we have the mode data, we know how much is created by the truck.
For the truck parts, the next thing here, we convert all those tonnage data as I had said earlier, the production side is a tonnage and dollar,
we convert the tonnage data to the number of trucks which is needed to carry those commodities around.
So the key thing here is, to convert the tonnage to truckload.
When we get those factors?
Well, they use to convert tonnage to truckload mainly from buyers.
The vehicle inventory and U.S. airways.
This is conducted by U.S. DOT.
They occasionally do their own conversion factors.
I have a list of a couple examples by state and local agencies.
The last step is traffic assignment.
The traffic assignment procedures, virtually the urban and statewide modeling has been used in traffic assignment for freight modeling,
we must pay attention to the uniqueness of a freight shipment in the urban area under the incorrection of the logistics industry.
Again, the size of our geographic coverage and resolution is critical in selecting this method.
Now we have covered all major blocks in commodity based modeling.
What is the strength and what is the weakness of this method?
The strength of this method is the commodity is linked with a lot of parameters.
Economic parameters are there.
The weakness is the difficulty you encounter in this model.
Think about it here, there are trucks on our highways carrying more things standard commodity.
As I said earlier, this method is the most popular one among all practitioners.
You can read with it more of those types of modeling.
The second most popular method is a so-called chip-based method.
It follows the chip then goes too the traffic assignment, a three-step process.
With the CHIRP generation, it's most likely this relationship is built on economic activities and number of truck CHIRPS.
For example, how many trucks will be generated for thousand square feet of commercial warehousing.
There's no mode split here, we can go to the distribution directly.
Again, the routing motto is the most widely used method.
Once we have the truck number, then we can go back to the traffic assignment.
Dislodge the commodity based method and urban modeling.
Any of those methods can be used, however, your geographic coverage and geographic resolution must be taken into consideration.
The strength of this method will facilitate field data.
Since this time, commodity definition is not a factor here.
The definition for trucks is much broader, the weakness of this method is the ability to account for mode issue.
And also having a truck coming.
The next method here is the imperical, statistical method.
This approach is completely different from the traditional four-step modeling.
This method basically is to establish an equation, a function which is the number of trucks, is a function of land use, business allocation and other information here.
Let's take a look at this diagram here.
We draw a line, and we say to start counting the number of truck traffic, then we call that number we have discounted, as dependent variables.
After we have the dependent variabilities, we go back to do more research to figure out what is the classification of the roadway and what kind of land use we have on the highway.
And how far away is the business in the station.
We call all those whereabouts, independent whereabouts.
We'll use the statistical method to link the dependent and independent variables into the equation, and we'll use that equation to predict the future data.
Well, the strength of this method, again.
We have a long lost classification on accounting data.
The weakness is really hard to complete two independent variables.
Most of those variables, so-called independent, they have some kind of relationship we should make the issue much more difficult.
The last method I'm going to talk about is trim down analysis.
It's looking into what happened in the parts to obtain a equation, then we'll use the equation to project into the future here.
This method is used on the price level.
The classification number of the parts, we'll use this regression into the future.
The method is already seen put to use -- had been used extensively in the past.
However, this method cannot be used on new alignments.
Also, it will have a hard time to be applied on a widening job.
The method on growth rates, but in reality, this method is getting used less and less.
Now, we have covered all the methods approaches, let's take a look what kind of challenges we are facing here.
I call the first part a big challenge here, the modeling objective.
I have stressed earlier, through reviewing all those processes, all those articles I have gone through.
The modeling process might have a clear objective, if we don't have a clear objective, most likely it will not be a successful one.
Relationships, we know there are a lot of predictions for future GDPs
and we can establish a GDP relationship with good moments that will have a much better opportunity to project future shipment date tax the issue here is, the mode of data.
Right now we don't have a really good handle on how prices, markets, play into this mode of shipping.
The last one is to integrate freight modeling software with other models, such as on the economic side, production, and assignment side.
Combining with tropic assimilation.
On the technical side, we need a way to collect and analyze the existing data.
The fair governance still the motto.
We need new help into it.
Freight has its uniqueness, it has this injection of the low gifted industry; how are we going to handle that?
The last one is the mode of operation and calibration, we need -- objectives, there are a wide range of objectives we do in freight modeling, on the approach side, it's pretty much assimilating our behavior.
Our type of mottos, we have four models: commodity based, curb based, statistical approach, and the last one is print analysis.
Then we mentioned the challenges also.
The challenges we talked about, the big picture and the technical side.
I think I'm going to stop right now, and thank you very much.
Thank you Tianjia and thanks to those of you who posted questions in the chat area, we'll get to those questions after all three presentations.
I know he has some examples included in his presentation, web links and I think our other presenter dozen as well.
These presentations will be available for download in the next few weeks and an e-mail will be sent out when they're available.
You'll be able to get all that information then.
Our next presenter is Randy Curley, of the Oak Ridge National Laboratories.
Randy, I'm just getting the presenter role turned over to you, everything's set up.
You can begin when you're ready.
Thank you, Jennifer.
It's certainly a pleasure to be talk with us and all of you friends in the freight area over this cyber-net connection.
Today I'm going to be talking about the freight model improvement program which Tianjia mentioned earlier, and more specifically about the clearinghouse that was recently opened at www.fmipen.gov.
Let me first tell you a little bit about Oak Ridge National Laboratories, ORNL, is the department of energy's largest science and energy laboratory it employees about 4,000 scientists and engineers,
ORNL also contains 18 large user facilities, one of which is the National Transportation Research, which houses more than 200 transportation experts and a very large facility in nearby Knoxville, Tennessee.
Jennifer, I'm having trouble making it advance.
If you click on the slide once and then use the arrows on your keyboard that should work.
Thank you, very much.
FMIP was launched back in 2004, by the U.S. Department of Transportation, managed by the Office of Freight Management Operations.
It's in collaboration with the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Energy, the Army Corp. of Engineers, and support of the Oak Ridge National laboratory.
The FMIP is based upon three basic premise, the first being that the current methods for forecasting freight are inadequate,
and I think that was one of the points that Tianjia brought out in his presentation, the second is that freight demand models typically are based on passenger travel demand forecasting,
which has been developed extensively over the past several decades, but increasingly, we realize that freight is very different and will call for different approaches, different methodologies,
the third point is that practitioners like many of you out there today are calling for improvements in both the state of the art and state of practice and modeling and modeling freight.
So FMIP was initiated to do three basic things, to enhance the state of the art and the state of practice in freight modeling at the national regional and local levels,
the primary focus of FMIP is on forecasting movements of commodities by all the major modes and a secondary focus at this point of time is on models that estimate forecast,
public revenues, environmental consequences, economic consequences, et cetera.
Which is a secondary, but nonetheless important part of the program.
Many of you have asked about the relationship between FMIP and the freight analysis framework which Tianjia also said.
The FMIP hopefully bridges the gap between FAV's national focus can the needs of local planning.
FMIP is designed as a form for practitioners, pretty much at the local level to help them understand, help all of us understand freight through the further collection of local data
and the modeling of that data as it is related to and dependent upon the national picture which is provided by FAV.
A key component of FMIP is the site, and it has several objectives, the clearinghouse has been designed to provide up to date information on the current state of the art and state of practice freight modeling,
it's designed to inseminate inventories and assessments of the freight modeling.
It's designed to develop and provide a library of current research data and methods.
We are encouraging via fmip.gov, discussion and comments on issues, various issues that will help all of us lay out a path forward in the coming years
as to what needs to be done to take us to that next level of freight modeling that we all acknowledge is needed.
We are encouraging customers to submit copies of their work to this site so that we can disseminate that information more quickly and more fully, and we are also encouraging direct peer-to-peer exchanges through our site.
If you go and I hope that you all will go to the site this is what you will see or something similar, it's updated daily, if not more so.
You will find a welcome to the site, you will also -- at the right will find what's new in FMIP.
What's new in freight modeling, freight data collection, so I certainly encourage you to go to the site and explore it.
If you look down at the major features of FMIP -- I'm just highlighting it here so you can read about it more readily.
We have news events and courses, we also have a section on freight models and modeling studies.
We have a section on data to support freight models, a number of related links that are of interest, tools for those of you practitioners out there that might not know of these certain tools that you might use in your local state,
whatever level of planning, they're the discussion forum that I'll come back and talk about later, and, of course, there are the contact section to lead you to folks who can hopefully answer your questions and respond to your comments.
If we go to the site and click on the data section, this is what comes up.
Hopefully you can read that up at the top left, under the data section we have freight movements, commodity flow data,
freight network data, economic activity date for state and local sources and collection methods, I encourage you to go there and review these data.
Time won't allow me to go into the details of that right now, but this is something I think is very valuable to all of us in the freight area.
I do want to spend most of my time today on the highlighted feature here which is freight models and modeling studies.
And go through what the -- what is available there and encourage you to help us to provide additional information and make this an even better resource.
If you go to the site and click under models, this is what comes up.
Let me just highlight this and the next slide so it's more easily readable.
FMIP under models has 5 other divisions, the first is an inventory of freight models, the second state, and national freight modeling.
And then a library of freight modeling papers.
Several of you out there have inquired about the inventory of freight models.
I have to admit that that inventory is still being finalized.
As we go forward, I would encourage each of you to provide Input to that inconvenient tour that we are developing and hope to have completed in the near future.
If you go to the site, the page under national and international freight modeling studies.
You'll see a number of references and links to work that's being done worldwide from anywhere in Australia to the United Kingdom to Sweden.
And there are references to Japan, in fact we recently hosted a delegation from Japan who --
these scientists there are doing their own version of FATH which Tianjia mentioned earlier, you'll see a number of links from California to Florida to Virginia.
And if you click on these you'll get highlights of what those studies are, what they're objectives are, et cetera.
You can also go to the metropolitan and local freight modeling studies again, a large variety of contacts here and linkages from Baltimore to Kentucky to Los Angeles.
I think these sites are very interesting in pointing out the different approaches being taken to different objectives of these studies which I'll come back and talk to a little bit later in my presentation.
We also have a library of freight modeling papers, and it's currently divided into 17 different areas,
and this is one of any number of ways that we can break down the papers, and the articles and the resources that are out there starting with freight modeling reviews,
and let me point out at this point that this library is designed for a very wide variety of users, everything from a college student who is getting started in the freight area and wants to know something about history,
and current state, to practitioners at all geographic levels to hopefully the academic who might use the site for references for our papers, so it covers hopefully most if not all the bases.
We have a modeling hazardous freight movement, truck generation, modeling the value of time in freight, freight and commodity flow modeling, freight traffic assignment,
modelling freight supply change, intermodal freight and transfer modeling, multi-step freight modeling, freight corridor and system capacity modeling, dedicated truck lanes, truck size and weight modeling,
modelling urban freight movements, freight mode choice, freight data collection, modeling the energy environmental impacts of statewide, and regional freight planning studies.
You could cut this any number of ways and I'll come back to this in the near future in terms of pointing out that this is one of the challenges that we have,
in that it's not obvious how we do cut the current state of practice and state of excellence in this area.
One of the keys to success as we go forward in FMIP and hopefully go forward in terms of creating the next generation of freight models,
I think it's first -- and this is to reiterate was Tainjia was stating earlier, we understand the basic questions asked.
What and how much freight will be shipped.
We want to know the origin and destinations, we want to know what mode it will be moved by, or more appropriately modes,
because we now live in a multimodal inter-model world, and I think we have been somewhat behind in acknowledging that in the models that we have.
We want to know how it goes by route.
We want to know the cost at which it travels, the transit time, and then finally, we want to know how these answers will change over time as there are structural changes in the economy and the infrastructure, et cetera, et cetera.
It's important that we understand why we ask these basic questions, a number of reasons here, safety, health, environmental impacts, national security, and congestion.
We want to know in many cases the damage of the freight movements to infrastructure.
It certainly comes into urban planning and smart growth.
We do these studies in large part because we want to better understand the relationship between freight transport to the economy.
At the local, state, regional, and even international levels; and ultimately, we ask these questions, we do these studies.
I believe to assess the need for and viability of new and improved transportation infrastructure, again at all levels.
And this basic question asked a number of preceding questions, and analyses that are at a state of probably, we could all agree a state to be improved.
We have to recognize that our perception of freight modeling in the past four depends in part on our discipline, we must acknowledge that we bring different par dimes, understanding the problem in different ways,
underlying theories, different assumptions in terminologies, depending upon the discipline of which we were trained and these are facts that are both strengthens and weaknesses as we go forward.
Just listed 5 or 6 disciplines here, hopefully I didn't leave out one of yours, but if you look at these, we know the civil engineers approach this problem different than the engineer if or the management scientist or the economist.
And I think it's important that we recognize that.
It also depends on our geographic scale of interests, whether it be local, state, regional, national, or international.
And on the role we play in assessing freight and going-forward, whether it be as transportation analyst and academic, a planner or the actual decision maker in both the private sector and the public sector.
I think proof -- improvements in freight modeling will depend on several things.
First of all, we need to clearly articulate the objectives of nature models and studies which I think we've done a poor job of in the past.
We need to adopt intermodal and can no longer run rail independent of truck.
We have to play upon the strengths of our multidisciplinary collaborations, and develop a common terminology such that we can talk together more effectively.
I think we have to draw up on our international friends and look for collaboration in, the bottom line is that several countries are ahead of us in freight modeling, and I think there's a lot that we can learn from them.
We have to wisely mesh together the theoretical with the imperical and the idea with the practical modeling as we all know it's as much art as it is science and we have to be smart and wise in how we approach this.
Finally, we have to make the most of our current data while laying a path forward for significantly improving our data because our data are very much lacking in many areas, which Tianjia also pointed to.
In conclusion, may I first of all make a request that each of you go to fmip.gov and look at our form.
If you go to the site and click on discussion, this is what you will see.
If you see at the bottom there are recent discussions that you can click on.
Currently, we have 6 major topics that are of discussion.
We've been a bit disappointed at how many people have used this, and we want to get this primed if you will so that it is a point of where we can start to discuss the major issues of the day
and how we go forward in creating an agenda for improving freight models over the next years and decades.
I also would strongly encourage you to provide input to us; we want your input and we want to serve your needs and to do that, please contact either Dr. Cheng or I at the address on the screen,
He of course, is at the Office of Freight Management and Operations, and certainly feel free to contact me at ORNL.
We seriously want to hear your comments.
We want to meet your needs, so please, please come to the site and participate.
And with that, I will end my presentation.
Thank you, Randy.
I should mention that both Tianjia and Randy will be presenting again next year, I believe it's February on the freight analysis framework too, and more information about registering for that seminar will be coming out soon.
Our final presentation of the day is that of Luke Cheng, of Citilabs Inc.
So Luke, let me just get you set up here, go ahead when you're ready.
Good morning, can you all hear me?
I certainly appreciate to be able to participate in this accept that even though I'm on the other side of the globe here, thanks to the modern day technology.
And what I will be talking about today is basically what MTA, Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority has been doing since to '01,
in terms of trying to come up with a better tool to handle freight and truck planning issues in our region.
So let's go on.
First of all, just a little bit about who MTA is or what MTA does, and most people know MTA as a transit operator; we do operate a lot of us, -- metro rail, subway lightrail and all that;
but in addition, MTA is also a county-wide planning and programming agency, it is in that road that we have to deal with the planning issue and have to deal with the issue of freight and truck.
L.A. County has 10 million in population.
Terms of modeling, we cover the entire southern California area that covers 5 counties which has half the population for the State of California.
There's a lot of people in this region.
And we consume a lot of goods, and in addition, a lot of goods nowadays coming to the states, they mostly, a lot of them come through our ports, namely the Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles.
And these two ports, combined in 2003, stands at number 3 in the world in terms of container volume.
In addition, we also have 6 freight and passenger airports, LAX being the biggest one and then Ontario Airport.
Also, and these are very active and busy airports in terms of cargo volume, and the two west-coast class one railroad, Union Pacific and BSF are also very busy move freight in our region.
And in total there are six intermodal terminals in our region.
The biggest one, if I can get the pointer out here -- can you see this -- the port is here, and the intermodal is right here downtown.
Everybody knows L.A. has a lot of freeways, most of these -- a lot of -- I don't want to say most, but many section of these freeways are carrying over 20,000 container trucks a day;
and the busiest one being the one connecting the port area and the downtown railyard, the interstate 7120 is currently carrying about 40,000, 50,000 container trucks a day.
That's almost half of the volume of the entire road, and probably takes up 60, 70% of the capacity.
And that's now, and if we look at the future, the population is forecast -- or expected to continue to grow, about to between year 2000 and 2020.
For the same period, we're anticipating a much even faster growth in terms of freight activities.
Rail activities are expected to grow 240%.
Trucks about 65%.
Air seems relatively small in number, but in itself it's going to grow about three times, three fold.
Since we're facing this problem in our 2001 long-range transportation plan, it was stated that we need to identify -- we actually identified this as an important issue.
We need to more clearly define strategies to accommodate anticipated freight growth and we need to take a proactive growth in working with all private and public stakeholders to develop some solutions.
So the in addition was handed down to the planning department and to the modeling group.
Namely systems analysis and research section under the planning department.
And the planners get together and I was hired to specifically deal with the freight issue.
And first of all, you know, we tell ourselves that -- Randy mentioned already, division of travel's motto is not suitable for modeling freight and the theory behind the methodology of how people are making trips.
In the past, we tend to kind of ignore it, the way we deal with it is other traffic assignment.
We say okay, 5% or 10% and when -- right now, like I said, there's a lot of traffic on our freeways and streets,
that occupies a substantial share of infrastructure capacity, so we can no longer ignore this part of the traffic in our modeling.
And as a planner, I mean, we need to realize and we do understand that we understand better and get more knowledge in terms of how and way a freight truck moves.
So the MTA's goal in terms of objective -- our objective is quite ambitious, we want to develop and innovate multimodal and truck movement models.
Innovative meaning, thinking out of the box, just not constraining ourselves with how we model passengers.
Multimodal, there's a lot of models in our region, we have heavy duty truck model.
We need to think multimodal.
A lot of relate and rail and air need to be considered.
Comprehensive, in an urban environment for an urban model.
There's a lot of trucks in our street and our highways not carrying freight.
They're doing other things, they're providing services, so we need to take that into consideration also.
So that's our objective.
Coming up with the model that is innovative, multimodal and comprehensive.
And after a year we have conducted a lot of meetings, there was over 50 different companies and agencies associated with state industry and read a lot of papers and inventories of data,
and then we sat down and said, "Okay, how do we model this complex system, in terms of modeling?"
The word modeling means, basically we're trying to simplify a complex system.
So, okay, and I said very naively, "Let's just say all the traffic movement and freight movement in our region is split into three groups, one group is moving to and from the seaport,
the other to and from the airport, and then everything else got into another group."
All non-foreign airport related movement, and these were from warehouse center, local truck trip, service oriented truck trip, and then maybe this model was looking something like this.
We have a port and airport model.
Two ports, six airports and some intermodal yards and we have another side of this is this non-foreign airport model.
They will have model 1, 2, 3, but this part is a hard part, because nobody has really systematically looking at this yet.
For the airport related movement is comparatively simple because we're dealing with a limited number of chip generators and very luckily or fortunately in our region,
part of L.A. and Long Beach has done a great job developing their own transportation model already.
They found a lot of data with the shippers and people doing business at the port and conduct surveys on the trucks in and out of the port.
We don't have to reinvent the wheel.
We can just ask them for their help and get their models over, and likewise, the airport suppliers, they provide airport models too much our emphasis will be on this port.
Non-foreign airport related movement.
And we're dealing with numerous origins and destinations.
Even more so is that distinct type of operation.
It's not like people making trips, these are business activities to allow these type of business to survive to make money.
And these, like LTL, are local dealer service oriented, they're different.
The reason why they're out there is different and the operation is different, so they have different implications and impact on our infrastructure system.
And also this part like I said today, has not been analyzed systematic when I yet.
The first year or two after we came out with this -- the reason we put this together is we collected a lot of data and reports and past surveys and so on and so forth,
we thought it would be a good idea to put it in one volume, it becomes a one stop reference for all the truck and freight related information for this region,
and the idea being hopefully that 90% of the time when people want to look for some information, freight or truck related in the L.A. Region, they'll be able to find it or find some thing that they can start it with in this document.
And it was proven quite useful and for people in our region, and it includes these 7 chapters, number 1 covers all the major freight transportation facilities, from the port to the railyards or railroad company and airport.
Where they are, how they're doing in terms of movement and so on and so forth.
We summarize all the freight movement data.
There is some geo-coding of this data and put a summary in this document.
Truck generators, this section focussed on where all these trucking industries are, and where all these warehouses are in the region.
We produced some very nice looking maps, and summarizing this, the location of these generators.
The university of trucks.
A lot of time once we get into this truck business, we're starting to wonder, how many trucks are there in our region?
Does anybody know?
So we started out with DMV data.
And getting inventory from DMV and summarize it, and also we started categorizing all types of trucks and size of trucks and they're both vehicle weight.
And also a section on truck traffic this started with Caltrans Truck Count database, and Scaggs, local truck count database, and also Caltran's OD survey.
Also provide a summary of the major truck related studies in our region.
Lastly, we also include a chapter doing summarizing truck involved or truck related accidents in our region.
I would encourage other regions to do this, once we get this done, then every year we can update it and it would be relatively simple to update in the summertime,
we can hire summer interns to spend a couple months on this to provide an annual update on this document.
And the other thing we did early on was that we realized that we don't know freight.
As a planner, we don't know very much about freight.
So we want some -- we need some help.
So we hire a group of consultants to carry on a study that we call Truck Freight Modeling Framework and Preparation.
And what this is, is, the consultant is led by freight industry experts.
Remanded by traditional transportation planning modeling consultants.
And the objectives are number one to provide planners knowledge and understanding of domestic truck freight movements, it's like a freight 101 for planners, if you will.
And then based on that, develop and model framework for truck movement.
And recommend and approach for domestic truck freight movement models.
The next few slides highlights some of the topics, which are covered in this report.
That's touching upon the fundamentals, what is the funding -- a chapter on local trucking, local trucking accounts for most of the truck movements, not the long-haul segment.
And there's three major types of operation.
Basic patterns in terms of trucking.
The rate one is the one we're most familiar with where you have a truck going out from the base in the morning to a destination one and come back and then go out again to the destination two and come back.
The other one is a little complicated, started out in the morning from the base,
drop off the first load and drop off the first load, go to origin two, pick up the second load and then drop off the second load at destination 2 and then so on and so forth.
The third type is paddle.
These will be like U.P.S. or Post Office.
They start with the base and each truck will get an area.
They drive out to that area first and then make the run.
And the others are for this area that come out here and make their run.
So these are description of how trucks move in terms of local deliveries.
We also have a section on service trucking fundamentals, and most people didn't cover this, and also for national model we probably don't have to talk about this too much, but in terms of local model, urban area model.
This is something we cannot ignore.
Service is a movement of trucks for the purpose of performing the service function.
And this has really has been considered in planning or modeling efforts.
And based on our study, 74% of the airway metro area's truck population is used in business or personal services.
Most of these vehicles are relatively small.
In fact, service accounts for a significant portion of the vehicles.
So next we also have a chapter summarizing the state of the practice methodology in terms of freight movement and state of the art.
Like I said, in the past, like say 5%, of course account for trucks and then we go a little bit more sophisticated;
say maybe freeways get 10%, arterials get 5%, and then all the factors say -- this that means from A to B you get 10%, from C to D you get 5%.
And now state-of-the-art ones, the one that we picked out or the consultant summarized for us, one is a group called Logistic Chain Models, and the other one is Tour-based Models.
At the end of the study, they essentially determined that the recommended that a hybrid-model framework will be the way to go.
And this will combine the logistic-chain models and the tour-base models.
Logistic chain model, basically, is following commodity from the production to the consultants and this approach will probably be good for every college truck products, coal mining industry.
And the other methodology, the tour based model will be suitable for textile apparel, electronics, furniture, and also the service.
So just a few bullets of how each of these appear.
And the logistic-chain models, for example, is focussed on how shipments move from producer to consumer, it includes low choice decisions and three layers in this model component from economics, or just transport.
And we figure probably about 38% of the commodity can be model in this approach.
I have a new version, so I will ignore that bullet.
And the tour-base model.
These basically, like I said, for best buy they deliver their refrigerator to their consumers from the previous orders, so these basically are tours of not your typical structures, and most of these will be --
there's no more choice basically, and in fact some of the commodity they may have to -- the deal was in both of these approach that for the most part you will probably do it with logistic change,
once it get into the urban area, in the warehouse, and coming up from the warehouse, they will have to deal with floor based components.
Based on that report and that recommendation, our next step is to conduct a prototype study, take one or two industries to kind of follow through the logistic-chain model approach
or the tour-base model because no one has ever done this and we don't know where it's going to work.
We need to see what kind of assumptions we made, what kind of data are available that are collectible.
And then see whether it worked out.
Now, if it is successful, then the planners go on to the next phase to do it for the remaining industry, and then eventually model the validation, and that would be another up to 5 years effort.
But in the meantime, we need to come up with an interim model that will allow us to focus and estimate truck rate movement.
While the consultant is doing that study.
Internally, we were conducting our own research and surveys to see what other tools are out there that would allow us to come up with an interim model.
And these listed here say why cargo -- are the justifications I came up with and submitted it to our management back in late to '03 for selecting this particular software;
so this is in no way endorsing any company, any particular product, these are basically what we did at MTA.
After some research, we found that cargo, at least at that time was the only modeling software available that is specifically developed to simulate regional and urban truck rate movements.
Not about that, it was already proven successful and been used and applied in over 20 studies in the nations.
And these range from truck frame model for city of power or the entire France and National Model for Germany or EUs; a couple studies that were done on the multinational model for
along the river areas, so another reason for selecting cargo is, it meets our need in terms of our criteria number one is multimodal.
It has the trucks and rail, and in the waterway and air if we have it, it would take care of that.
And it also considers beyond heavy duty trucks, it models local delivery service truck trips and tour based fashion, so that's another reason for picking this.
And it already contains logistic chain and tour base concept in there.
One particular module in cargo is called transport logistics, and this step is specifically designed to deal with the transfer issue,
the intermodal yard, the warehouse where the goods get transferred, from the warehouse or distribution center.
Lastly, for the reason for choosing cargo is that it's a module of an acute system of software, it's a family of modeling software, which integrates automobile,
transit and truck freight into one system, at MTA, on the passenger side of the model we already using it in the part of the acute system.
An acute system being that it has an interface that is supported by RIGS.
And it has a passenger travel demand model component called Acute Voyager, most of you are probably familiar with the software.
And Q-Voyager being an improved version of that, and we at MTA are a passenger travel demand model.
It's a transfer based model.
So now with cargo coming in that gives us truck and freight movement within this system we can very easily incorporate that with our passenger travel demand model.
Because truck model cannot exist by itself.
Has to be combined and look at it in the totality of all the traffic out there.
And also, we utilize another component of the system called Cube Dynasim, that is a software that allows us to cut out from our macro model a section or an area that we want to look into in greater detail.
For example, in our particular study, we utilized cargo to extract out the I-7 for freeways between the port and the intermodal yard downtown
and to develop a 3D animation and micro-simulation model for that section in order to allow us to compare different improvement alternative for the section of the freeway.
So eventually, in addition to just buying the software, a lot of times we bought software and then we don't know how to use it, it ended up we spent some money on the software, and it ended up you get nothing.
In this case, try to avoid that, we told the consultant, "Yes we would purchase the software, but we also would like you to trial us a view, a skeleton model for us, in a relatively short time, 2, 3 months,
using existing data and then view the model structure."
At least I can see what input is needed and what output I can get and what the stages of if.
What kind of assumptions and what kind of parameters we need.
If we only have the number now, it doesn't party, eventually, then, after this step well be able to know what has additional works are needed in order to make this calibrated model.
So at the end of the last fiscal year, we have received these four deliverables.
Number one, an acute-cargo based model.
And also we operated in order to put it all in one platform, we are kind of developing a version of our passenger travel demand model on TC Transplant and Q-Voyager, in addition to that,
we also received a GIS-Based Highway and Transit Network to work with our macro models, and then lastly we zoom into the I-710 area between I-5 and downtown and develop this preliminary micro simulation model.
Now, since last October or November, we started our phase 2, that is to based on the phase 1 results, we started collecting data on intermodal yards and also on the I-710
and trying to come up with airways, specific assumptions, and parameters to calibrate this model.
And that effort is still ongoing, and eventually, hopefully we will end up with a fairly decent model and I certainly think well.
And let's see, who am I missing?
Okay, eventually I think the goal for planners in the government agency or consultants, we want to come up with a system that is balanced.
We want to balance the mobility for people and for the past 30, 40 years of modeling passengers movement, transit movement,
I think it's about time we also pay the same amount of attention if not more, so we can have a balanced transportation system; and thank you very much.
Thank you, Luke.
We have a number of questions typed in, I'm going to try to get through as many as possible with the time that we have left.
And just a reminder, unless you sent your question directly to me or to all participants, I am unable to see other questions that have been typed in,
so if you didn't send it to me or all participants, go ahead and retype it and send it in to me so I can make sure I can see it.
We're going to go ahead and start off with questions for Luke since he gave the last presentation.
Luke, the first question for you is, how can one obtain access to the compendium of truck freight information?
You can send an e-mail to me and then I will refer you to the right person at MTA.
Since I'm not at MTA directly, I don't want to put him in trouble.
But my former boss at MTA systems analyses, the director of systems analysis and research.
The slide that I have on the screen has the e-mail addresses of all three presenters on it.
Does the truck compendium include studies from other groups such as Scagg or others?
Why is freight growing so much more rapidly in Southern California than the population is?
Is this due to the Los Angeles status as a major international Gateway?
Or are there other significant growth factors?
That's certainly the major reason for it.
And that statistic was prepared by Scagg.
So I don't know what exactly went into that.
I think the questioner is correct, it's mainly due to the influx of imports from Asia going into the United States and a lot of that volume, actually comes in from our port.
And also, 17 million people consumes a lost goods, and we're consuming more and more goods that we don't realize, in fact with the advent of internet shopping, every time you click a mouse, you basically just dispatch a truck.
And a lot of these trucks first may have to -- this growth may have to go by rail also.
So all these additional consumption or addition of activities we don't realize we're causing a lot more trucks to be on the road.
Okay, well, thank you.
I'm now going to move on to some questions for Tianjia.
Where do you get the information regarding production and consumption amounts for a given commodity on a sub-county area?
Well, for production and consumption data, typically what I see folks doing is, by building correlation regression equations, based on past data, you know, tidal appreciate lace or something like that.
Then for the future, that equation projects future production and consults.
You use that consumption.
The key thing there is what kind of parameters are on the highways, that's combative to the resolution, typically, people try to tie in with things in the future.
If you can correlate the past production consumption with the population in some kind of equation, you have the future population projections and that is how people -- I don't see any of that in the literature, how folks are doing it.
The next question I believe is for you, Tianjia as well.
But if any of the other presenters have any thoughts, please feel free to give yours.
How do you determine the total logistic supply chain movement from origin to destination across all model interchanges?
Well, you know, our experience here basically, from the freight analysis framework here, we have gone through it once in the past, that has a summary that mainly dates from the former associates.
And for the current freight analysis framework, what we did is we based it mainly on our data there from across the supply chain and based on the commodities.
And then we conduct individual studies, try to supplement the commodity data with our own individual study.
You know, for commodities which is not covered by commodities full survey.
That is how we did across the board.
Randy or Luke, did you want to add anything?
The next question and again, I will pose it to you first, but Randy and Luke feel free to jump in.
What is the best way for modeling freight flow at multimodal facilities?
That is a tough question, but the key thing here, my take on it, the key is, it comes down to the model split, you know, what is model split?
What is the facility?
Those are the key things here, typically, what you design at the facilities, you'll have some kind of projection.
So, that is the key.
What is the mode of split there and what are the keys to facilitate.
That is the way can you start.
I would just add to that that that's one of the major challenges that we have right now.
And it's due in large part to just the lack of data.
Luke has talked about the issues they have in Los Angeles and it's a very complicated issue, because we don't have those micro-dates that that really tell us what's going on at the level of detail that we need.
And our hope is that over time the kinds of studies that Luke and other organizations out there, the other metropolitan areas and regional studies are going to help us understand that better.
And once we have the data, I think we can model it appropriately, but we really -- data poor right now.
Yeah, I'd like to agree with Randy, and that's what we were trying to do as a local level, at least at MTA,
so as part of the phase two for acute-cargo model, the main part of the work is actually trying to collect data at the 6 intermodal yards
and we started off with thinking, you know -- it's because I'm a traffic engineer -- the only way I know how to do collecting data is stop people at the gate and ask them where they're coming from, where they're going to.
And I got voted out by the consultant they say that won't work.
Eventually I gave in, so the approach that we eventually took was to go to the customers of these intermodal yards and I want to stress that -- the fact again that as good that we have freight consultants in our consultant teams,
and these consultants they're in the business, they know the freight people, they know the railroad companies, they know the customers of the railroad company.
So we go straight to the major customers, like probably 10, 12 of these companies to account for most of all the activities.
Though we ask them for their movements, their trucks going in and out of those railyards for the entire year of 2004.
I think we were fairly success envelope getting that data.
Although we're less successful in getting the data from the railroad company to kind of get the total.
So once the phase two study is it done, I'm sure MTA will be happy to share that with everybody.
If I could just add one point to Luke's comment.
That and also Tianjia's earlier comment, our severe lack of information about truck movements.
We have to basically subtract a way what we know about rail and water and deal with truck and inevitably without collecting micro-data, we're forced to use modeling approaches that give us reasonable estimates.
But certainly that's something that you would say that particular movement that's estimated as in fact the movement that's occurring.
The next question I'll pose this to all three of you is how reliable are the data available from commercial sources such as tram search?
Randy, if you want to go first?
I really, I don't feel qualified to answer that question, I know it's certainly been used and we have used the data in the past for FATH,
and the folks that prepare these data are very, very high quality folks and so I would suspect that the data are very good.
We currently don't have the complete background and information on the methodologies that are being used.
So we can't do a complete evaluation of those data, but there's no reason to suspect that they are not anything but first rate.
I would have to agree with Randy, I don't feel qualified to comment on this, but as the user or practitioner at the government side,
my feeling is it's better than nothing a lot of effort went into it, and like Randy said, a lot of people's efforts on it, and it's not -- also a long history on it too.
For the last of months, I've been running around in Asia, and I feel like we're actually in the U.S. we're quite fortunate.
At least we have something to start with or compare against.
At this point I just wanted to say one point that I forgot to mention in this presentation.
I want to thank FATH for providing the highway and rail networks and all the commodity flow data as part of the acute cargo model effort.
And also Caltrans IT's data that they basically, is the commodity flow data at the county level or even on the zip-code level.
That's a big effort they put in.
And that benefited us.
After we develop the model, we can compare our commodity flow at least on the zip-code or the county level against items data.
So I want to just say that to give the credit to these two agencies.
The next question is after converting commodity tonnage to trucks, most freight planning studies use all or nothing assignments, assuming no passenger car traffic.
Only trucks on the highway network, how do you account for congestion?
If any one of you feels like you can answer that, please jump in and go ahead.
Well, I guess I'll start, like I mentioned, this is Luke, freight cannot just run by itself on the road, so any reasonable modeling effort, once you have the truck matrix,
you need to combine that with the passenger car before you do the traffic assignments, somehow you need to account for that in order to get the congestion.
It's all conjecture on that analysis.
We look at it as a combination of fact.
It cannot be a truck alone or it must be a combination.
That comes back to objective study.
I want to say one thing, the search data, as most of you folks already know, Randy said, the freight framework, the first one, generation one is mainly based on transportation data.
What we're working on now, is a framework for the second generation, we shifted to two different sources, but that has nothing to do with reliability of numbers, so we change the course of the data.
It's due to early reasons.
Let me just add that the problem of truck converting tons into truck is one of the issues we looked at early on in the process.
We have a working paper that I'm sure will be available for public consumption that's done here by Dr. Frank Southworth, who's one of my colleagues here and looked into the truck payload equivalent issue.
It's not an easy one, again, it comes back to having the viable data, to transfer if the tons and the truck payload equivalents and there's a whole science that deals with that,
but I think it's one of those sub issues that we have to throw into the pot as we go forward to develop the next generation of freight models.
It's very important to not only understanding congestion but also damage to road infrastructure, et cetera.
We have just enough time to ask one more question, and then if I didn't get to your question or if you have additional questions,
you can post them to the freight planning list serve and you can contact the presenters directly, I have their e-mail addresses on the screen.
The final question I'm going to ask is that in general and from experience, getting shippers and in a large measure, manufacturers to participate in surveys that are either government mandated nor are voluntary is difficult.
Are there ways to get through these issues and practice so the surveys are received well or replaced by other data sources?
We'll start with you?
Well, that is a really tough question.
It's not this unique toward the freight, you know, it data service.
Any other public service, that is always a challenging issue.
I think the key here, for a local agency, you just need to work without a private firm.
The builder of the trucks, that's the key thing there.
Then I think, you know, it will be much easier to move the process forward.
May I just add that the next generation FATH is very dependent upon the commodity flow survey which is a shipper survey.
And you have to recognize the limitations and the pros and cons of that, we don't have a full picture of who is actually making the decisions about freight movements and that's something I think again we have to address as we go forward,
what decisions the shippers make, but then we have to infer from that many decisions by other parties that we don't directly measure, so I think the question is an excellent one and one that needs a great deal of attention.
Luke, did you have any thoughts on that?
Okay, yeah, just very briefly; I think survey certainly is a big issue, and most of the surveys in the freight side are less than successful I'll say, and we ended up losing a lot of money.
So coming up with another approach, it's really a very critical.
But in the meantime, I think in order to improve the survey, quality and response, I think the mentality on the government side needs to change;
also so we cannot just conduct a survey on the project by project basis, we have to study and we hire consultants and get nothing back.
That can be expected.
So we need to change the practice into a more institutional way of doing things, meaning like for example in the Scagg area, they have a good moving task force,
and MT -- these are permanent type of groups that meets every month that involves the freight industry people or the key people there.
So when the government has need and you can discuss in their forum and you have trucking industry people there, trucking association, railroad company,
they're all there in the same room and so these trucking industry people are shippers even, they will go back and convey the government's approach and the intention.
And so they can help us in terms of the study we need to do and the data we need to collect.
That's how we were able to collect this data in the intermodal yards and some of the major warehouses also.
We need to think permanent.
Institutional and long term, in forming these task forces in each of our nation's different regions.
At this point in the interest of time I think we're going to close the seminar.
I believe I got through most of the questions, but again, feel free to contact the presenters or send it to a list serve if you do have additional questions.
I want to thank all three presenters, especially Luke, who is calling in from Beijing in the middle of the night there or early morning, whichever you prefer.
Thank you to everybody for attending today's meeting.
Again, the recorded version of the seminar will be available within the next week or so on the Talking Freight website.
The presentations will be available for download as well, and I'll be sending an e-mail out to everybody who is in attendance to let you know when those will be ready.
The next seminar will be held on December 14th.
Please note that this seminar is being held on the second Wednesday of the month due to the holiday season.
If you have not done so already, I encourage you to visit the Talking Freight website and sign up for the seminar; and I also encourage you to join the Freight Planning Listserve.
One more thing I want to the add, the first few seminars of 2006, will be posted to the Talking Freight website in the next few weeks.
As I mentioned previously in February, there will be a seminar on the freight analysis framework, too in which Randy and Tianjia will be presenting.
That's about it, so keep an eye out for the seminars for 2006, and you can begin registering for those as soon as they're posted.