Good afternoon or good morning to those of you to the West. Welcome to the Talking Freight Seminar Series. My name is Jennifer Symoun and I will moderate today's seminar.
Today's topic is Freight Analysis Framework 3. Please be advised that today's seminar is being recorded. Before I go any further, I do want to let those of you who are calling into the teleconference for the audio know that you need to mute your computer speakers or else you will be hearing your audio over the computer as well.
I'm also going to bring up a poll to get an idea of how many of you are using the voice over IP option versus how many are using the teleconference option. Today we'll have three presenters, Mike Sprung of the FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, Diane Davidson of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Maks Alam of Battelle.
Mike Sprung manages the Freight Analysis Framework program for the FHWA, Office of Freight Management of Operations. Mike's efforts are focused on the integration and analysis of freight transportation data from a variety of sources to estimate commodity flows and related transportation activity among states, regions, and international gateways.
Prior to his work at the Federal Highway Administration, Mike managed the international trade and transportation data program at the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and has also worked as a survey statistician on the Commodity Flow Survey at the U.S. Census Bureau.
Diane Davidson has 30 years of experience in executive leadership, transportation management, transportation planning and operations. She currently serves as the Director of the Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).
She previously served the state of Tennessee as Director of Rail, Transit and Waterways from 2004-2007. She founded and directed a regional non-profit organization, the Transportation Management Association Group (TMA Group), which became nationally recognized for excellence in transportation innovation, demand management and operations. She served on the Nashville Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) Technical Coordinating Committee from 1988-2004. While at TMA, she founded and served as General Manager of the Franklin Transit Authority. Diane received a Master of Science in Urban and Regional Planning degree from the University of Tennessee. She is the Project Manager for the national Freight Analysis Framework version 3, for the Federal Highway Administration. Other key areas of research expertise include rail and waterway freight; multi-modal planning; transit planning and operations; sustainability; demand management; Intelligent Transportation Systems; and, travel behavior.
Mohammed Maks Alam is a research leader for the Battelle Transportation Group and has more than 25 years of progressive experience in civil engineering practice, education, training and research in pavement management, traffic engineering and transportation planning, transport policy as it relates to freight modeling highway infrastructure management, construction and contract administration, traffic information systems, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and project management in Canada, US and Asia.
Mohammed has published a number of papers related to freight modeling, highway inventory and traffic data integration and management as it relates to decision making and GIS applications in highway and transportation engineering. Since its inception, Maks has been working for FAF as the principal investigator for the freight assignment and the capacity component of FAF.
The meeting will last 30 minutes with the final -- 90 minutes with the last 33 for questions.
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If you think of questions after the seminar, I encourage you to use the freight planner list serve. I'd leck to remind you the session is being recorded. A file containing the audio
and verb al portion will be posted on the website in the next few weeks. And wen courage others to access the recording.
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So we'll get started. Today's topic is freight analysis framework 3. I'll turn it over to Tony first.
Thank you, Jennifer. It is a flesh or to talk off this session with talking freight. As many of you know fast is the most comprehensive data in the U.S. It covers our entire transportation net work and modes. The manner is open
and available to anybody who wants to take a lack at it. We're always open to suggestions on how to improve the services that fast provides both at the state level, national level and local level.
want to acknowledge all the hard work that Mike and his team of contractors have done. Everybody likes to take a look at the maps that you see currently on the slide which shows the fraternity work.
That front end of the framework is what we use in a whole host of settings. Underneath all of those maps there is an inordinate amount of number crunching and data work that -- I don't want to call Mike
and his team contractors under the hood but they are in the nuts and bolts of fast working on how to get that data compiled, put together, analyzed and flowed over the area,
a huge amount of work to get these maps published. Appreciate it and want to thank the team for the work they have done today's session will walk you through some of the nuts
and bolts about how fast threes a changed from fast two. It continues to evolve and improve. With that I will turn it over to Mike again with thanks to you, max and Diane and all the others.
Thanks a lot, Tony. I certainly appreciate being acknowledged for that I also appreciate you acknowledging the contractors, the excellent contractors that worked with me and that have played this possible.
So let me start off by defining it a little. Tony gave us a good intro. It's a little repetitive to what I'll say but the freight analysis framework version three is a program designed to create the movement not United States.
We frequently refer to it as the model. As Tony pointed out, there's a lot more than just the model, although that is big piece of it.
The database is really the result of an enormous data compilation that results in the only publicly available comprehensive data. It was designed for the pressures of freight movement on the transportation system.
These are some examples of the type of issues that need to be understand how freight movement affects congestion, infrastructure, safety, how congestion, delay and cost affects freight movement, how policies affect freight movement
and what are the consequences of those. Where can investments be made tone crease capacity.
Decision makers need this understand to guide investment policies that will address expected growth as well as to keep the economy moving.
This understanding is built on answers to seemingly simple questions made very complicated bit size of our country and the transportation network. How much, how it's getting there and when does it move.
For the answers we can go to the benefits and consequences and ways to develop the consequences and mitigate the negative.
It answers the how, what and where questions for the previous slide at a national scale for 2007 and provides forecasts for every five years out to 2040. The survey done by the census bureau is the largest source of input data
and provides the majority of fraternity movement data. It's only conducted every five years. We have estimates for the most recent years based on specific sources, international trained and economic data.
We also use the origin destination matrix. Regional flows. That allows trucks, tonnage on the national highway network. Since it only deals with annual averages, we have to turn to other data sources for when and daily
and seasonal activities. One such source is the freight performance program which is Mrs. managed by the federal highway administration's freight office. They monitor truck activity continuously on interstate highways
and border crossings on the national network. This shows all of the data elements included in it. We have eight domestic modes, struck, rail, water, air, multiple modes combined in one, pipeline, other unknown.
The eighth one we aided for the point 30 a domestic mode category. There's a shipment of crude petroleum that does not move past the port of entry. So we needed a way it handle that and the no doe mess tech med category was our solution.
We also have seven foreign modes that match the domestic modes minus the last one I mentioned. There are 123 domestic regions taken from the regions used in the commodity flow survey. We also have eight international regions, Canada,
Mexico individually land six groupings -- and six groupings based on U.N. definitions. We get the classifications from the commodity flow surveys. This is a map of the regions that are included in FAFT3.
It covers large metropolitan areas. There are 11 new metro areas added. If you used it in the past we had to use additional international gateways that differentiated from the regions used in the commodity fle.
this team they incorporated the 11 new metro areas, nine focused on international gateways that were selected for the volume of foreign goods moving through the U.S. Now our regions are directly in line with the commodity.
I should also note while I'm talking about international shipment 3 identifies where it enters and leaves the country, so we'll have a foreign region, a U.S. region where the lower tariffs tariffs or leaves and we'll have a domestic origin
or destination as well. The bottom lean -- line is that it shows states and localities where they lie. it does an excellent job of illustrating free flow.
It does Ned to be supplemented with local data for planning of local budgets. And with that I'm going to move past the -- pass the microphone to Diane who will tack about how we assembled this matrix. Do I an, are you ready -- Diane,
are you ready.
I think we're having audio problems.
Hold on a second and let me see if I can reconnect. Give me one second.
We'll see if this works, go ahead.
Can you bring up my presentation? Thank you.
We participated in fast 2 and pleased to be on this panel today. Mike's covered a lot of the basics, so I will pick up from there. OCDM, origin destination commodity mode is the most comprehensive by mode
and commodities in terms of value. The use per community makes great use of this because there are estimates of total volume that's moved into, out of within the U.S., substate regions and international Gateways.
In order to address the flow dimensions for reporting we have 131 more originally regions, 131 destination regions, the classes of the two digit level and the classes with eight in domestic as Mike described.
When you put all this together, the full fast three may matrix-- that's a large job and that's the work of ORNL. The overview of the project shows that the beginning of all the other products that starts with creating the OCDM,
annual freight flow matrix and the other product flows from that. This shows the linkages between the various data projects. I think Mike covered most of these from the set of the OCDM. Then the assignment [Speaker/Audio Faint
or Unclear] And max alum will speak of that later in the presentation, so I will not address that in mine. Then additional products are the long range forecasts which this year, the future year will go out to 2040,
and then, of course, product will be the provisional updates based on the latest data available in specific economic activity and traffic growth. I do want to mention a fourth product that's coming your way.
I think the user community will be very pleased with this feature of fast, an online tool for distracting data elements from fast 3. Moke's going to discuss and vent -- Mike's going to discuss this after max.
Now we will move on and talk about how this flow matrix is constructed. I'm going to give a very high level overview of these major data modeling steps involved with generating the freight flow matrix.
It draws from many data sources.
The most important is the CSF. CSF is conducted every five years. It reaches a subset of all the American establishments. Participation is mandatory. And notably, in 2007,
about twee's as many establish -- twice as many establishments were recorded as in 2002. So we had about 100,000 samples. We only used the domestic forcing -- portion of the CSF. Even with this larger sample,
the CFS is missing about 30% of the total staff in value and 33% in tons. We start with a very large and very sparse OCDM table. Only 5% of the sales contain nonzero flow values. So we're talking about our inscope flow.
They're contained in CFS. Yet, the table is very sparse. We need to create a methodology that will address the gaps.
The approach taken is to use a variety of missing value interfering techniques to get the results of client spatial interaction. That yields an estimate of about the 40% tonnage or so of the U.S.
freight movements that are not captured by the CFS. If there are no observations in the CFS, the zero value sales are treated as zero and are constrained to be so however,
many CFS sales are reported as suppressed for reasons of confidence at and -- confidentiality and made to be estimated by the fast. So the estimation of the missing cell values occupies a grate deal of time and effort.
We use a three-step process to accomplish this, and we start with a log rhythm year that use as variety of methods to identify sampling. We can break down into three steps. Step one,
maximum likelihood base known as our LL/IPO procedure is used to fill gaps in the data sets. Adopting, the CF-S geographic zoning system as the basis for the three zoning system.
Then, water borne commerce and the 2002 commodity, plus survey data are used as a reference to estimate the value of the suppressed cells in 2007. Is this truly a zero. Were there shipments that show new other data sources.
In the log linear model, fills in the suppressed data cells. We move not other setting. This con strains the fast three three in matrix to be consistent with the CFS totals.
The cells with nonsuppressed data are constrained to remain unchanged during this process. After conducting these steps, after running the model several times,
the flow matrix is fully populated at an ODCM four-dimensional level in terms the annual tonnage and annual value of goods transported. However, at this point it does not include the flows that are out of scope
or undercounted in the CFS. So, now, our next step is to address the CFS out of scope flow. These out of scope commodities are presented here, farm-based agricultural, help ising, municipal, solid waste and imports.
So we have to assign commodity and mode specific OD flows to the commodities using other methods, and as you would expect, many different data sources have to be accessed and a variety of different applications are used.
Gravity models to estimate are necessary. I want to go over all these, for instance, for farm-based out of scope commodity flow, we use the USDA2007 agriculture census. It applies estimation methods,
use the origin and shipping distance, distribution. Then distribute the amount of products to each fast destination zone. That's just one example of a process and each out of scope as its own unique treatment.
The documentation that will be -- that's available on the federal highway fast website will present all the various treatments of the out of scope. Next, we need to estimate the out of flow,
out of scope flow boy truck -- by truck only mode. To estimate this, four steps are taken. The first in the upper part of the page is to estimate national or regional shipment totals for each industry by the fast commodity class
and national input, output, making these tables are applied here. Input, output data is used to convert the inputs and outputs to fast commodity. Step two. Those national shipments are regionalized at the U.S. level down to the county.
We go to county patterns, sales and employment data for performing this kind of regionalization. Step three is to estimate OD flows at the county level. That use as special interaction model.
Step four is then to aggregate the OD estimates from the counties back up to the regional zones. So at the end of this process we have fast, out of scope region to region, origin destination by industry.
Because it captures outbound shipments, it does not have room for foreign imports, including lane crossings between the countries in north America have to be added to the CFS.
So we start with -- we have four major areas that we have to estimate. We start with creating a set of international water borne OD commodity flows. [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] Distribute those flows from fast internal zones
and use a combination of corps of engineers and 2007 domestic OD distributions. Next, we address the transporter. We take BT transporter and distribute flows into and out of U.S.
fast zones. This involves desegregated state flows to the fast zone. For international air cargo there were several major steps using the OEI combined to determine the weight of internationally air charge shipments,
exit destination airports. The results were aggregated and compared with the import export data, difference in the two sets were reconciled as a customs district. Crosswalks from the airport to the custom
and from HS commodity to SEG commodities. Last, imports and natural gas was developed. In this, issues to be aware of and so the natural gas imports were dropped from the improvement of transporter and we used DOE,
EIA data to develop the production and then a gravity model, interaction to distribute the results.
When all that is performed and concluded, the commodity and the special zoning system crosswalks are applied to the various data sets to match a fast commodity class and the 131 zones. So then we have the data source modeling
and the date gap filling procedure. That yields the foreign origin destination three in matrix and the results of the model, together with the out of scope treatments are added together. That results in the full fast matrix.
Before leaving here, I just want to say another great improvement was making use of this pierce data within the U.S. That wasn't available to us in fast two and it's made considerable improvements in the accuracy
and the ability to fill in the missing cells for fast three so. In addition to the pierce date tat that improves the allocation, we had the doubling of the U.S. CFS establishment sample.
We incorporated several additional data sets in the enhanced fast three log linear model. We made greater use of the input outland the ones in the development of the out of scope flow estimates.
I think the last is providing the ability to access it in a user friendly web-based status. This is significant improvement. You can find them on the federal website. I'm presenting that URL for your Ben fits. I want to thank the clever,
talented team that worked on this project, Bruce Peterson, Dave bolts. Dr. Ken, James Lee, all made great contribution. They will be available during the question and answer period to address some of your questions,
and then I also want to ac not contributions of the larger fast team. Last, but foremost on the part of federal highway administration has been very helpful, including Ralph Schmidt and Mike sprung in guiding us.
Meek's expertise in foreign trade data was a great factor in the improvement of fast three over fast two. So the teams have already begun work to reprocess the 2002 and 1997 may tress to create a time -- matrices to create a time series.
Thank you for your attention.
Thank you. I'm going to go back one slide. I'm typing the URL in the chat box for the fast website so anyone can get to that. I will turn it over to max alum. Max, I'll bring up your presentation.
Thank you, Diane.
[Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] The weigh we started this project, the best flow methods we have the 131 bee 131 OD Mae Trix, the capacity can be's meated. This slide just gives a basic overview that we had to apply.
That is a three-main compliment, update the fast network which initially was under one and then two and then it's also enhanced for the fast three. Step two was two update the link, straight network link as well as other physical
and operational ones. And the three was to see the tonnage and finally assign those tonnage on the network system. I'm going to describe briefly the overall process. This is a very comprehensive process.
I'll now be able to describe everything in -- I'm not able to describe everything in detail, but you're welcome top send emails to Mike and detail. It's on the website. I'm going to go on that network.
The network of the fast three [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] We have to make sure that every leverage that is part of the network is a part of the national network. It's a federal mandated network. Also, every year,
the system is updated to intermodal. [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] Any recent alignment that was done after we have done the fast two. In addition, we wanted to make shower that when we are done,
it's not affected by those higher links, but truck movement by -- each link, we updated the leverage -- link. So that gives us a kind of look at the geographical basic network.
Not only for improving it but also the end of the day another part is to estimate the capacity and the condition of the higher network. So the idea was top bring HBMS, that every year to collect both operational
and physical information on the highway. Our job was to make it a part of the network. The assignment process, we not only have it by itself. We can also add. That's the typical approach for the assignment process.
Then the problems happen when you take that and try to bring in part of the HBMS, part of the network, there's always a drop of three in at the boundary. I think because of jurisdictional reasons and the team.
So we apply to make sure that [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] It's consistent and the outbound boundary. The OD data that we receive from oak ridge is [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] But to estimate the capacity and the delay,
require physical work. How to con vert those tonnage to different ones. I'll explain more detail at the and of the presentation, what are the truck type and what we used to convert this truck tonnage to equivalent truck traffic.
As mentioned earlier, that since we have done step one and step two, we want to make sure that it is a consistency across all three programs with respect to the ones that we started. So our main purpose was to improve the factor,
a designation of highway. The second one to -- mentioned international gateway, so if you add that, it's 131. The next is to take the 131 by 1317
and then desegregate them to approximately 46,000 so we can accept a more realistic flow on the network.
One of the differences between typical assignment process that we do is that the process is let rally different in the sense that we have to disagree by domestic [Speaker/Audio Faint
or Unclear] This is because of the nature of the movement and the controlling factor that goes to the the matters. We use a professional to get 40 metrics. This identify nice the ones based on various components.
One was the 18,000 distribution center as well as the [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] Then we use the volume that we derive from the HPMS. The reason we use this is -- I mean, typically it's done all or nothing or pace sick assignments.
However, because of the national assignment, problems happen when -- for example near the Los Angeles I5. So wheel you try to load most of it on the I-5 but when you use that,
carefully calibrated you'll be able to get a flow that's more consistent with the truck low that's in the HBMS. [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] And, obviously, when you do that -- what we did,
we did a multiple trial to make sure that the HBMS is higher and the volume is comparable with the HBMS. Now the -- it is very difficult to calibrate specifically because of the nature of the data and the coverage of the geography,
so we Troy to limit our final calibration by 2007.
So this shows how to take the tonnage and convert. It what we did with it identifies it. Then we [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] Each one, the type of one, we try to calculate it. We try to calibrate
and compare with the weight in motion for the office of policy to see. Pay load weight distribution and how they're comparable. Then we try to get the variability because obviously Washington is not the seam as the east coast.
We try to figure out is it possible to bring in different work sites as part of this. We decided to use the national [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] The five capital groups, tonnage to the group, major body types,
and the least is -- we put in other groups. Now at the end of the day after doing all these things, we came up with some like basic formula to combat each specific tonnage and the body type. This is not that complex.
It's a three-dimensional dimensional algorithm. We have the loaded trucks because we use the tonnage. Then the metrics is added empty trucks. Overall summary, this is an in between two and three-step process.
[Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] We wanted to make shower that at the end of the day if someone tries to -- if we get it back to 131, the total volume will be the same. I like two and a half step process. So,
anyway this diagram summarizes what this is about. Now giving simple things, as I mentioned[Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] When we come been all these things, you can see it's close to 46,000, 4,609. It's including domestic.
One other thing you can see in Montana, to get -- we have to desegregate those things so it's comparable with the database. The flow -- this is the tonnage flow. The tonnage flow is someone who has the flow map,
and we'll have it as part of the report. It's very come payable with the flow pattern that's reported in the HBMS. That's the and of my discussion. If there are details, I'll take questions. This is the preliminary.
Thank you. We'll turn it over to Mike now.
Yes. Thanks, max. Thanks again to Diane and oak ridge. I wanted to spend the last few minutes for the speak portion of this to go over what's actually a major improvement in my opinion.
Aside from all the technical improvements that were played to make the actual fast data better, it can be the best thing in the world, but if people can't access it or can't use it, maybe it's not worth doing,
so this is how we've enhanced it by developing a web-based summary tool that allows you to extract specific sections of the fast three data without downloading an entire database last time which was broken
up international modes for air, water and land. This makes it a lot easier to get at. So real quickly jump into this. The main page gives the option to still download the entire database, Microsoft access.
On the left you can see options to get to some descriptions of the different releases, summary statistics, the data extraction tool and the documentation. By selecting the data extraction tool option,
it brings you to a page where you can select total flows that would be domestic and international hall flows combined or domestic alone, import alone or export alone. For the sample here we've just selected the total flows option.
You'll notice on the screen shot just the year 2007 is there.
What's presently available on the website is our fast 3.0 data that we released in July. That was only for 2007. I'll go into more detail about what's going to be included in the release next week when I'm done with this,
but you'll be able to select the year. That will include 2007. Then the provisional year of 2009 and our forecast years from 2015 through 040 every five years. You have the option of selecting origin,
either combining for the entire nation by state specific or down to the fast geography level. That's the 131 regions that we've been talk about you vast same option on the destination side.
The commodity you canning a dropped gate all the commodities together, select individuals or combinations of them. The same thing applies for the modes. As simple as that, you pick your options, I think here.
I did Baltimore as an origin and mode of truck and all fast regions and sorted this by total tonnage, by truck.
Of course Baltimore to Baltimore within is certainly the biggest piece for truck but that picture who change if you selected air or rail as the mode. You can see in descending order. You can assort this by value.
If you wanted to download this, some of the tables can get big. You can view it on the green and sort it to make it easy or you can download the table into a CSV file. Basically when you open up a CSV file,
as long as you have Microsoft eke cell, it will pull that program in. So in summary, that's really how the data extraction tool works. It's certainly a lot easier than working with 1235 p-p--- 125 megabeat cell.
If you want to see what's going out of Baltimore boy truck or what's flowing between your region and someplace else. So now the time line fast 3.0 was released in July. That was the first version of the regional flow data base for 2007,
and the basic data summary and extraction tool on the website that you see here. Next week what we will be releasing is revisions to that 3.0 data set.
We'll also be adding to that the forecast that goes from 2015 to 2040 in five-year increments. The maps that max just discussed as well as the data for that and the highway link assignment data. Also, the provisional updates for 2009.
Later, we'll go back and reprocess 2002 and '97 data. At the moment the fast three data is not comparable with fast two data. A lot of changes were made. Flow survey, changes were made to the methodology in fast three versus fast two.
Changes were made to the sources we use. Because of all of those things, the numbers are not directly comparable. If you do so, you do so at your own risk. We certainly don't advice it which is why we're going back.
We're going to reprocess it it. Using the same methodologies that we used in fast three to give better time series. Another potential future product for us will be an online napping capability. -- mapping capability.
So to wrap things up, I just want to say that we spend countless hours checking the results but we do rely on users to help us maintain the quality of the data we released. These files are enormous
and the methodologies for each source are varied, so we need eyes that are familiar with the different commodities, the different regions to help us identify any unexpected results. With that, here's a website for access to the fast data.
The first one is the FHW-S website. The dot freight website, WW dot freight dot dot.gov. You can get to it at the link that Jennifer posted earlier. That's it. I think we have a lot of questions. Hopefully we'll have time to get to those.
We'll move on to the question and answer session. Start with the questions that have been posted online. Actually, I'll bring back the slide with the web addresses. I'll start off with the top of the questions and go on down
and we'll see how far we get. If we don't get through all of them, we'll have the presenters answer them via email. Roads and kansas city rail to Texas, boy passing southern California.
I guess -- the one thing I can say quickly about that, one of the new additions in fast three is the use of Canadian and Mexican transshipment data, trade coming into the United States from other countries but going through Canada
and Mexico. That's actually lap brand-new source that we were label to get through the trade division, census bureau, freight that is doing that is included in fast. What you'll see are rail shipments to southeast Asia going through Texas.
That's exactly what that is. Those are shipments that are being shipped through Canada and new Mexico, but that is included.
Also, there was no reference, max,000 modal shifts greater than 300 miles from truck to rail.
There's no modal shift as a part of this assignment process.
Maybe we can revisit that one at the end, move on to this one.
The next question is both U.P -- will have dock railing.
Will it be trucking or rail or maybe a new category?
For where we capture and estimate these rail to truck transfers, those will and new what we call multiple modes and mail, but if things are being loaded from a vessel directly to rail, we -- I'll also point out,
as Diane did that the data had a fee color where they did a matching for individual containers.
We cap which ared a much larger percentage from wart born international .
The next question is for Diane. How are the 2040 forecasts developed.
The forecasts were similar to what was done in fast two, were developed by global insight using their regional commodity specific forecast models. I'm' not going to get into all the details now.
I wish we time to cover that in this tracking freight session. I will say the documentation will be available on our website shortly after we release the data next week.
And when will the commodity forecast be available?
That will be next week. We have a press release scheduled for next Thursday. That's when all of the fast 3.1 data will be made public.
What is included in the multiple modes and mail category and what kind of intermodal modes are included.
It includes anything that's moved by more than one mode for the domestic leg of the journey as well as mail shipments that were reported.
can you please elaborate on what is captured in the no domestic load category.
The no domestic mode is imports, specifically imports of crude petroleum coming in by vessel that were off loaded directly at a refinery. So there's no physical move, no domestic move of these, so they will show up as an import,
but there is no domestic mode because they didn't travel domestically.
That was really the only way we could do it. Initially we had those by water, moving domestically by water. Wherever we put it skewed the tonnage numbers for what really is no domestic move.
And we ended up with a no domestic mode category.
Can we get out of scope flows at county geography?
Not from the fast. If you -- I guess I'll defer to the experts at oak ridge. Fast is not -- we have no plans to release any of the fast data at a county level,
but that's not to say that some have our source information isn't available at a county level and you could go to directly, but, of course, it would limit the comparability with fast,
and I'll see if anyone at oak ridge has a comment on that .
It's based on USDA2007 census data. That data is published at the estate level as well as county level even though county level has a little bet similar to all the other data.
Some of those were -- you have to have special treatment for those. The data levels depend on the commodity. Other data sets, they are provided, could be just at state level like the trans porter data set that we have.
They are at the destination of the stay or for the export, the origin of the state.
So from state going down to the fast zone, what we have done is basically used a cot pattern. So it really depends on the sources. Like Mike said, on the fast, there's no plan, basically,
for the county level because of the limitation of other data.
I see that the next question is asking for flows at the zip code level and I think we can infer the zip code is far beyond what we can do with fast. I'll just reiterate,
the fast sin tended to offer a national picture of regional flows and was never designed to provide that level of detail, the zip code geography .
Have any compare sons been made between fast three and fast two forecasts?
Certainly. That was a part of the review process, more so comparing the changes in the growth rates more so than the actual numbers. As I pointed out, the fast two numbers and fast three numbers are not directly comparable.
Without the final report, I can't say in complete detail all of the changes, but it's obvious that there's been a big -- big difference in the optimism of the forecast versus what was calculated for the 2002 data.
We had the dip for the last two years that appears to be returning to growth for 2010, but the long range forecasts are a bit more conservative than the fast two forecasts were.
will the assignment methodology be available online when everything is released next week?
They will be available on the website but not for next week. The documentation has to go through the our final week of compliance where the -- we'll be looking at early next year. If you ask specific questions,
less feel free to contact us and we can answer them on a case by case basis before that.
Max, where is the state trafficked boundaries.
The main source HBMS and the source in any questions where there's questionable data we try to get the maps. They have published books. We go through the books and try to solve the problem if the data is questionable from the HBMS.
Mostly it comes from the data base, which is a data base that was mentioned by the office of policy.
What assumptions or adjustments are made to account for the economic downturn since 2007 in order to make future forecasts.
In some ways we were lucky that the survey was 2007.
So it was largely undisrupted by the downturn in 2008 and 2009. Now, of course, that did need to be taken into account for the forecast, which has been accounted for in the regional commodity forecast models that global insight uses.
Are the Synthroids identified in the fast three networks? They weren't identified in fast two.
We didn't identify them all specifically. Most of the time there was a question. [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] The same reason he can't release the data file county to county because of disclosures. There will be maps.
If you want to use that one, you can eye ball and use those.
Diane, what local data sources would you use to supplement the fast free data, weight, service and similar movements.
I think as meek has explained, primarily a regional data base. We look at national, state and regional data sets to construct the fast. As far as municipal data waste, someone called a biocycle. You know,
I suggest that maybe you could go to some of these state sources and see if they drill down to anymore specific levels for your particular need.
I'll also add there is a project underway threw the national corporative freight program specifically to address this, and the title of it is close to if not exactly development of local commodity flow data.
The work on that is underway right now, and short of saying that you may need to do your own data collection or rely on existing sources, it's kind of specific to what you need.
I just want to mention, questions that are directed toward as specific region or area, we can address those offline. We want to focus on the broad sections. In the network assignment do you include any empty truck movements.
The empty truck is based on the types and the source of the estimates.
Is the county to county OD matrix, which was in slide 10 slough max's presentation used in fast two?
No at this time we have not used county to county methods. [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] No specific link truck. The database is applicable in a classic way.
And the procedures will be described in the documentation.
can you briefly touch on how couriers are classified in terms of both mode and commodity.
As far as the commodity flow survey goes, which I'll address it that way, the commodities are reported as what the commodity is. The mode choice is mail or courier that's given in commodity survey. We pretty much stick with that.
We put it together with the multiple modes in mail assuming that they do move by multiple modes.
Some of it, the last time ended up in other unknown but it seemed more appropriate to include with the multiple modes in mail.
In the data extraction tool can you select a specific and port of entry?
No. It's limited to the regions that we have for -- that we have in fast three and all imports and exports through individual ports are aggregated to those regions. If you're looking for import, port, this will not be specific.
You would end up using some of our, what would be our source data.
Can we simply get flows of the trucks clarified.
Yes. You can do trucks, truck and individual mode.
You can get the truck flow on the link.
Yes. That would be the assignment database.
Imports per say are not covered. However, the imported commodities may be partially included after the initial destination in the U.S. For example, if the important commodity gets sent to a warehouse distribution center,
then this could be covered by CFS. In the 2007CFS, borders were oversampled in an attempt to better capture some of the import flows.
As the fastest mats import, could this lead to some double coverage?
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks.
It certainly could. Unfortunately, that's where we spend a good portion of our time is trying to eliminate as much of that has possible. Where an import shipment is moving beyond the port to that distribution center,
it will show up as an import going to the distribution center. Of course, that's in a perfect world. It may get reported from Laredo, moving through Arkansas about goes to a distribution center in Texas and then Arkansas.
That would be evidence of double counting, and we're holding a session at the annal TRB meeting to discuss that, among other issues, how to better address it.
We've pretty much exhausted all sources possible to get this as right has possible this time, but thank you for bringing that up, because that's certainly a possibility.
I should mention we did use some control totals from the for trade data to limit the maximum, the maximum amount of freight we show coming in and out. So that would have corrected some of that.
This looks like a recommendation and may exist. It would be nice for the data extraction tool to save the selections from the website to be able to run them again, especially if you're going to update, continually a data.
Can we choose a select link and get a through tree of OD's?
No you can only get it for the specific link. You cannot do that. You need the OD.
I think something will be sent through the freight planning list serve. I realize I don't have the address but a I can type in the link. I can send something out to everybody who attended today.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Is there a commodity to industry and industry to commodity table?
It's based on the 2002 data and 2008 data, too, including the industries sending the commodities. We have the shipping of commodities but we -- there's the one way you can get a better picture -- [Speaker/Audio Faint
or Unclear] Rote now there's no data published.
Are you using or noon use manifest data to compliment service to keep the model updated.
Whatever point some of that information becomes available to us, we would look into incorporating it in our professional -- provisional updates.
Offer, the likelihood of that happening before we get to a fast four may be unlikely. Obviously, an electronic manifest is available. It's getting access to it and the ability to publicly release it at the level that we want to,
so those are issues that will be looked into but I couldn't say yes or no whether that's going to happen.
Can you point to more information on the allocation of the assignment plan.
We started with the bottom crossing. [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear] The rest of it is coming from the distribution center, which is a group of clusters to identify a cluster which is within seven miles of the given centrex.
Then weed a additional points based on the [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear]
Can we get truck flow data for all the states?
Yes. That will be part of the link specific flow last like mentioned. It will be similar to fast two. It will be submitted, and we'll have the truck traffic.
and the commodity trips.
Yes, but we have to [Speaker/Audio Faint or Unclear]
The file that we're going to release.
2011. It will give you through traffic.
think actually what they're asking is specific highways, maybe within a state versus another state, and trite now, in fast two that can be done. That file will not be released next week but we plan to -- early next year.
We have four questions left.
Let's see if we can move through them quickly. Is there any method to determine freight movement through state?
Well, we are going to be doing an analysis of that. We'll call it fast 3.1 plus. We'll be doing a 10-mile analysis and releasing 10-mile tonnage and tonnage estimates, from two from within and through totals for each of the states.
Yes. And a similar way -- it takes time, so it's not coming into play until next year.
Are the empty truck movements enumerated?
No. The empty truck is added to the loaded truck. Loaded empty truck traffic, it as all at the same time.
Was a specific point location filed for warehousing and distribution centers created for use in fast three, and is this file available?
The original ones used from the USA source, that is a -- we have to sign an agreement with them that we cannot release -- there's a very specific location. Three months, four months, and that will be released. [Speaker/Audio Faint
or Unclear] Call Mike and maybe he can help you on that.
How are logistics accounted for in the assignment?
There is no --
There was question, I think somebody wasn't able to hear the answer to the questions and answers will be documented in the transcript.
Why can't we get -- and this will be the last one. Why can't we get flows in and out of regions rather than lake flow data?
The OD matrix provides exactly that information. That's the, it's been 131 and 131 regions. That's on the website.
I think the question was the truck, not the tonnage, so -- is the question about tonnage or trucks?
He did say truck. That's certainly we'll consider for included in future versions.
Okay. We're going to close out.
We're a minute or two over. Before I do, I want to say we are soliciting topic ideas for the 2011 seminars. If you have ideas for topics or presenters, you can type them in the chat box or send an email. Outbreak for attending
and thank you to the presenters. The recording and transcript will be available in the next two weeks online. If you're an AIC. Member wound like to receive maintenance credits, maybe you're signed in with your firsthand last name
or type it into the chat box.
For everybody please download the evaluation form and send it back to me after you've completed it.
The next seminar will be on November 17ed about the cross town -- 17th and about the crosstown improvement project. If you haven't done so already, I already encourage you top visit the freight planning list serve. So with that,
we'll close out and thank you. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Everyone that does include our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.