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New Trends in Transportation and Land Use Scenario Planning

III. Inventory and Case Study Descriptions

To identify specific next generation scenario planning efforts and practices, the project team conducted an internet scan, interviewed experts, and surveyed FHWA Division Office field planners.³ Based on this research, an inventory was developed of next generation practices (see Appendix B), which represents a snapshot of efforts rather than a comprehensive review.

Five agencies were selected from the inventory for which detailed case studies were developed (see Appendix C for complete case studies).The primary considerations in selecting the case studies were identifying efforts that appeared to be comprehensive. Other guidelines used to select case studies were:

• Inclusion of efforts from both urban and rural areas as well as coastal and inland areas.
• Inclusion of efforts for which information could be readily accessed online.
• Inclusion of efforts that had not been previously highlighted in FHWA HEPP-sponsored scenario planning workshops.

To conduct the case studies, five telephone interviews ranging from 60 to 90 minutes were held with agency representatives who self-identified as appropriate contacts. The project team tailored a flexible discussion guide for each interview to allow participants to talk about additional topics. The team then drafted case studies based on the discussions, relevant supplemental materials, and comments and suggestions that interviewees provided.

The selected case studies and associated key trends are listed in Table 1 below. Bolded 'Xs' signify the main trend that the effort addressed.

Each case study is briefly summarized below.

The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) addressed economic and quality of life issues in its scenario planning process and used sophisticated real-time analysis and visualization tools for public involvement. Key components of CMAP's approach were:

• CMAP worked with a local community foundation to incorporate livability and quality of life considerations into the scenario planning process, as well as to leverage funding for the effort.
• CMAP developed 250 indicators related to the economy, environment, homes, communities, and the transportation system to assess three scenarios, called "reinvest," "preserve," and "innovate." A subset of indicators was used for public evaluation of the scenarios.
• CMAP used MetroQuest software and real-time analysis to display scenarios to the public. The software, which is available on CMAP's website and was available on kiosks at various public gathering places in the region, was used during 55 public workshops.

The PlanCheyenne effort, which was led by the Cheyenne MPO in coordination with the City of Cheyenne and Laramie County, used a scenario planning process in a rural region. The effort led to policies that shifted development away from a trend toward low-density growth. Key components of Cheyenne's approach were:

• PlanCheyenne was a joint effort with the City of Cheyenne Parks and Recreation Division and Laramie County to update the city's comprehensive plan, transportation plan, and parks and recreation plan. This partnering enabled a more comprehensive plan than would have been possible by using only transportation funds.
• PlanCheyenne involved comparing scenarios based on provisions of open space, park areas, multi-modal travel opportunities, community identity, and livability. The trade-offs highlighted the links between infrastructure costs and development density and open space. Analysis showed that higher-density development scenarios were less expensive than the trend (low-density) scenario.
• The City of Cheyenne is developing a new unified development code to implement the development envisioned through the preferred PlanCheyenne scenario. The code will allow for denser, more mixed-use development than was previously built in the region.

The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is currently defining a scenario planning approach to reduce GHG emissions at the regional level. The process is being developed in response to California Senate Bill (SB) 375, which requires regional transportation plans to comply with GHG emission targets set by the California Air Resources Board. Key components of SCAG's approach are:

• SCAG will address climate change by modeling GHG emissions using a four-step travel model and a supplementary model of intrazonal travel.
• Extensive sub-regional workshops will be held to determine how best to reach the emission reduction target for the region.
• SCAG is using Envision Tomorrow software to define community types (e.g., mixed-use development) as scenario building blocks. This process will help stakeholders visualize the "look and feel" of development and support regional analyses of energy consumption, water use, open space, GHG emissions, and costs and revenues to local governments.

The Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission (TJPDC) in Charlottesville, Virginia, used a scenario planning approach to address regional livability. Key components of TJPDC's approach are listed below:

• TJPDC undertook a two-year scenario planning study in the early 2000s to evaluate the interactions between land use and transportation and address regional quality of life and growth issues. FHWA funded the study
• Three land use scenarios were constructed with public input—dispersed growth, urban core, and town centers. TJPDC developed its own model, CorPlan, to analyze scenario trade-offs at the community level.
• Within CorPlan, TJPDC included quantitative indicators such as percentage of land preserved to assess scenarios' ability to address livability goals.
• The scenario planning process helped build a foundation for sustainable growth in the region. In addition, many of TJPDC's counties have since adopted plans that incorporate sustainability and livability concepts.

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) developed a one-day scenario thinking exercise, demonstrating use of scenario planning in a low-cost, qualitative format to advance regional dialogue about key issues. Key components of MWCOG's approach are listed below:

• MWCOG's "outside-in" scenario development focused on global or national issues to consider impacts on regional or local systems. This discussion on regional growth was designed to help inform the Greater Washington 2050 initiative, which seeks to develop a regional growth vision.
• Scenarios were developed with the assistance of a consultant who conducted several interviews prior to the event with expert stakeholders and focus groups. MWCOG invited 100 regional leaders and representatives of the public and business sectors to participate in the workshop.
• The workshop resulted in strategies that participants believed would be applicable under a variety of potential futures. These strategies will ultimately frame the growth vision for the MPO's long-range plan.

Footnotes

3 Scenario planning is not a consistently defined process. On its scenario planning website and in previous workshops, FHWA has promoted a six-step process to help guide agencies' scenario planning decision-making; however, in practice, implementation might not follow the six steps. For the purpose of this project, the Volpe Center project team included in the scan any effort by a transportation agency that evaluated multiple growth/land use scenarios to help define desired policies, strategies, and/or projects. The following were included in the scope of the scan: visioning efforts, long-range planning studies, agency business plans, and collaborative efforts between academic institutions and transportation agencies.