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FHWA Scenario Planning Guidebook

FHWA six-phase scenario planning framework

Phase 1: How should we get started?

Scope the effort and engage partners.

Considerations: Process goals, objectives, budget, and stakeholder roles and responsibilities.

Output: Work plan.

Phase 2: Where are we now?

Establish baseline analysis. Identify factors and trends that affect the state, region, community, or study area.

Considerations: Transportation and land supply, suitability, and demand; state, regional, community, or study-area trends.

Outputs: Transportation systems inventory, land suitability analysis, evaluation of historical trends.

Phase 3: Who are we and where do we want to go?

Establish future goals and aspirations based on values of the state, region, community, or study area.

Considerations: Key values and priorities for the state, community, region, or study area.

Outputs: Set of working principles that document broad state, community, region, or study-area goals and preferences.

Phase 4: What could the future look like?

Create baseline and alternative scenarios.

Considerations: Scenario types, analysis tools, travel demand model.

Outputs: Identification of appropriate scenario analysis tool or refinement of travel demand model; baseline and alternative scenarios.

Phase 5: What impacts will scenarios have?

Assess scenario impacts, influences, and effects.

Considerations: Indicators to help evaluate scenario performance.

Outputs: Refined or calibrated analysis tool(s) or model(s) if necessary; list of indicators to compare scenario outcomes; qualitative or quantitative assessment of scenario impacts.

Phase 6: How will we reach our desired future?

Craft the comprehensive vision. Identify strategic actions and performance measures.

Considerations: Stakeholder feedback on scenarios and the future blueprint; potential actions, investments, or policies to lead the state, community, region, or study area toward the comprehensive vision.

Outputs: Comprehensive vision; action steps; performance measures to assess progress; plan for monitoring progress.

Return to FHWA Scenario Planning Guidebook

Updated: 10/17/2011
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