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Population Forecasting Methods: A Report on Forecasting and Estimating Methods

Abstract

Planning transportation facilities for urban areas requires study, analysis, and forecasts of population, economic activity, and land use. These elements are the basic determinants of travel. This report deals with one of these elements, namely population forecasting. The report has been prepared to assist those having little or no background in demography to become acquainted with the general field and with the major population forecasting procedures in common use.

This report is not intended to serve as a textbook or an operational manual. Rather, it is a general introduction to the subject, a guide to more extensive works, and a source of information on data sources that have proven valuable in studying and forecasting population. The reader is cautioned that in reality the procedures are not as simple or clear cut as they may appear in this report. In actual practice, judgment plays a vital role in the preparation of any set of figures, and as much consideration must be given to the judgments used in a population analysis as to the method utilized.

Updated: 03/28/2014
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