Case Study:

Albany, New York

Conclusions

Strengths

While CDTC's land use pivot model does not have the range of capabilities of large-scale urban models such as MEPLAN, TRANUS, or UrbanSim, it can be used to evaluate certain land use impacts with a modest level of resources. The model itself consists simply of three equations that are calibrated using historical data on population, employment, taxation levels, and housing prices, as well as travel times obtained from the regional travel demand model. In most urban areas, it should be possible to assemble these data with relatively little difficulty.

The primary strengths of the model are its ease of use and calibration based on local historical data. NCHRP Report 423A, Land Use Impacts of Transportation: A Guidebook, notes that the approach "may prove useful as a sketch planning tool because it provides a qualified improvement over the traditional cross-sectional implementation" (p. 73). The approach of allocating only incremental growth, consistent with an exogenous baseline forecast, can save a significant amount of time in calibration. Also, it eliminates the need to explain differences between locally-determined forecasts and modeled forecasts to planners and policy-makers.

CDTC's modeling exercise was useful in assessing the effects of congestion on land use patterns, as well as the relative effects of alternative land use distributions on congestion and mobility-related performance measures. The results appear plausible and are consistent with the results of land use modeling exercises in other urban areas. The "marginal allocation" nature of the model simplifies the exercise and also adds an element of realism, in the sense that existing development is likely to remain in use for many years. The CDTC's method of summarizing impacts by area type (e.g., central city, inner suburb) provides a useful framework for policy analysis.

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