Conditions and Performance Chapter Listing

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Report Purpose

Report Changes

Highlights of the Report

Report Organization

Highway Data Sources

Bridge Data Sources

Transit Data Sources

Investment Requirement Analytical Procedures

Plans for Future Reports

Highlights of the Report

Strikingly obvious is the immense scale of these systems: the extent to which the facilities themselves stretch across the Nation, representing the net result of technology and financial investments made over the past century; the sheer magnitude of the demands placed on these systems by a people for whom mobility is basic to their existence; the transportation services provided every day, around the clock; and the collective commitment necessary to maximize the benefits of these assets. The picture that comes through reflects achievements reached and goals still being strived for.

Key findings of the report include:

• Although most of our citizens are highly mobile, the findings of the latest National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) show there are disparities in transportation system usage among groups within our society. This indicates that significant barriers to mobility persist for people with disabilities, the elderly, low-income households, recent immigrants, and people of color.
• The priority of safety is reflected in the inclusion of safety statistics in the report as an indicator of system performance. The reduction in the fatality rate from 25.9 per 100,000 population in 1966 to 15.7 per 100,000 population in 1997 in an environment where licensed drivers grew by nearly 80 percent and automobile travel has grown by 177 percent is impressive. However, with 42,013 deaths and 3.35 million injuries in 1997, and rates per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) of 1.6 deaths and 131 injuries, significant opportunities for improvement remain.
• The balance among jurisdictional ownership, functional class, and location of highways and bridges has been relatively stable, with public road mileage overwhelmingly local and rural. With VMT increasing on every functional system, usage trends reinforce the dominance of travel in urban areas. Interestingly, from 1995 to 1997, rural highway VMT growth outpaced urban highway VMT growth at 7.2 percent as opposed to 4.1 percent in contrast to the 10-year trend in favor of urban travel growth.
• Transit system route mileage shows a 10-year increase of 44.2 percent in rail service and 10.4 percent in non-rail service. Service capacity, measured in bus-equivalent vehicle revenue miles, increased 22.4 percent for rail, while non-rail capacity increased 17.1 percent over the period. After declining slightly between 1987 and 1993, passenger travel on public transit showed renewed growth between 1993 and 1997, as rail passenger miles increased by 18.3 percent and non-rail passenger miles increased 3.8 percent. In 1997, rail transit accounted for nearly 53 percent of passenger miles while providing 50 percent of vehicle capacity operating on just 5 percent of the Nation's transit route miles.
• Overall, highway system conditions as measured by pavement condition, ride quality, alignment adequacy, and bridge ratings are improving although they fluctuate by location and functional class. The estimated average condition of the urban bus fleet is adequate, and has been relatively constant for the last decade. Rail vehicle conditions have declined since 1987, due primarily to the deterioration of the Nation's heavy rail fleet. The condition of other rail capital assets has improved since the mid-1980s, reflecting the rehabilitation and replacement of these assets and the investments in new rail systems and extensions.
• Capturing the quality of operational performance, as represented by various measures of traffic congestion, is very difficult. However, there is a strong recognition of the significance of congestion to transport safety, cost, and time as the reliability of the system decays. Measures of congestion differ in whether congestion is getting better, worse, or is continuing about the same. Measures of travel density clearly show increasing density, in travel per lane mile. However, the effect of this increase in density is less clear. A traditional measure of congestion, the volume/capacity ratio during the peak hour has remained at about the same value in urban areas for the past decade. Delay per vehicle mile of travel, which was added to the report this year, is intended to capture the effects of congestion throughout the day. This measure is available only for the past 4 years. Over these past 4 years, overall urban delay per VMT has increased. However, for the past 2 years, this measure has decreased. Whether this 2-year track is the beginning of a trend remains to be seen. More work is needed to develop a useful metric of congestion that will be consistent, credible, and feasible to collect.

Public investment in surface transport is at its highest level ever. All units of government, including Federal, State and local jurisdictions, share the responsibility of developing and maintaining our transportation systems. The private sector is also involved in certain toll roads and transit systems.

• All levels of government spent $101.3 billion for highways and bridges in 1997, an 8.4 percent increase over 1995. Of this total $48.7 billion was for capital improvements, a 10.2 percent increase. The Federal government contributed 41.1 percent of the capital outlay, down from 44.5 percent in 1995.
• All levels of government spent $25.1 billion for transit, a 5.5 percent increase over 1995. Of this total $7.6 billion was for capital improvements, an increase of 8.6 percent. Fares and other system generated revenues were 33 percent of total revenues. In 1997, contributions from the Federal government accounted for 54 percent of transit capital expenditures, 27 percent of public funding for transit, and 18 percent of total system revenues. Each of these percentages represented a slight increase in the federal share relative to 1995.

The unique contribution of this report is its analysis of future national investment requirements to meet the anticipated demands in both highway travel and transit ridership. The analysis focuses on two sets of investment requirement scenarios, and identifies the impacts of investment levels on various system performance benchmarks. These projections are developed using economics-based analysis tools described in detail for highways, transit, and bridges.

• If average annual capital investment on highways and bridges by all levels of government for the next 20 years reaches $56.6 billion in 1997 dollars, it is projected that the physical conditions of highways and bridges would be maintained. This level of investment would not maintain the same level of operational performance. This estimate includes a mix of preservation, expansion, and enhancement improvements intended to attain the highest possible level of benefits for highway-users, while achieving the goal of maintaining pavement and bridge conditions. An additional $3.5 billion would be required annually to maintain user costs at the current level. Maintaining travel times at current levels would require an additional $17.1 billion. To accomplish all beneficial improvements to the highway and bridge systems is estimated to take an average annual investment of $94.0 billion.
• The estimated average annual investment required to maintain the same physical conditions and operating performance of our Nation's transit systems as in 1997, by replacing and rehabilitating deteriorated assets and expanding capacity to accommodate expected transit passenger travel growth, is $10.8 billion. The cost to improve conditions and performance is estimated to be $16.0 billion.
• Capital spending on highways and bridges would need to rise 16.3 percent above 1997 levels to reach the $56.6 billion projected as the "Cost to Maintain" the physical conditions of highways and bridges. Over the life of TEA-21, this difference is expected to decline to 5.7 percent. Capital spending on transit would need to increase 41.0 percent to reach the $10.8 billion projected as the "Cost to Maintain" transit systems. This difference is expected to decline to 12.9 percent over the life of TEA-21. To reach the level of the investment requirements to "improve" the systems would require an increase in capital spending of 92.9 percent for highways and bridges and 110.2 percent for transit.
• If average annual highway investment remains at 1997 level in constant dollars over the next 20 years, urban VMT would be expected to grow at an average annual rate between 1.78 and 1.83 percent. Rural VMT would be expected to grow at an average annual rate of between 2.68 and 2.72 percent. Travel growth for urbanized areas over one million population would be expected to grow at an average annual rate of between 1.66 and 1.70 percent. Increased investment would be expected to result in higher travel growth rates. These projections recognize that if additional highway capacity is provided, more travel is expected to occur than if the capacity additions are not provided. If congestion on a facility increases, some travelers will respond by shifting to alternate modes or routes, or will forgo some trips entirely. In the long term, increased congestion may lead to changes in lifestyles and industrial practices. Such adjustments will affect the productivity and economy of the Nation.