Status of the Nation's Highways, Bridges, and Transit:
2002 Conditions and Performance Report
|Chapter 7: Capital Investment Requirements|
Part I: Description of Current System
Part II: Investment Performance Analyses
Part III: Bridges
Part IV: Special Topics
Part V: Supplemental Analyses of System Components
TERM projects transit capital investment requirements for the four following investment scenarios:
Exhibit 7-8 provides estimates of the total annual capital investment that will be necessary to meet the four investment scenarios. These estimates combine those calculated by TERM with FTA staff estimates of rural and special service investment requirements. Annual transit investment requirements, at a minimum, are estimated to be $14.8 billion to Maintain the Conditions and Performance of the Nation’s transit systems at their 2000 level, assuming an average annual increase in transit ridership of 1.6 percent. To improve the average condition level of transit assets to “good” by 2020, as well to Improve Performance by increasing transit speeds and reducing occupancy rates to threshold levels, would require an additional $5.8 billion per year for a total average annual capital investment of $20.6 billion.
As shown in Exhibit 7-9, replacement and rehabilitation costs are estimated to be $9.2 billion to Maintain Conditions and Performance, and $10.3 billion to Improve Conditions and Performance. Asset expansion costs needed to meet the projected 1.6 percent average annual increase in ridership growth are estimated to be $5.6 billion if conditions are maintained and $5.7 billion if conditions are improved to a “good” level. The incremental $1.1 billion needed for asset rehabilitation and replacement under the Improve Conditions scenario results from the extra investment that will be required to rehabilitate and replace additional asset purchases. The expenditures needed to Improve Performance are estimated to be $4.6 billion annually.
Average Annual Costs to Maintain and Improve Conditions and Performance
Exhibit 7-10 provides a detailed breakdown of transit investment requirements by TERM scenario and area population size. More than 90 percent of transit investment will be required in urban areas with populations of over 1 million, reflecting the fact that 90 percent of the Nation’s passenger miles are currently in these areas. It is estimated that an average of $13.4 billion would be needed annually to Maintain Conditions and Performance of transit assets in these large urban areas and $18.1 billion annually to Improve Conditions and Performance. The needs of less populated areas, i.e., those with populations under 1 million, are estimated to be considerably lower because they currently have fewer transit assets. It is estimated that $1.4 billion would be needed annually to Maintain Conditions and Performance of the transit infrastructure in these areas and $2.5 billion to improve them.
Non-rail Needs in Urban Areas with Populations over 1 MillionThe cost of maintaining the conditions of the non-rail infrastructure (buses, vans, and ferryboats) in urban areas with populations over 1 million is much lower than the cost of maintaining the rail infrastructure. About 30 percent of the total transit investment requirement in these areas, or about $3.8 billion annually, would be needed to maintain this infrastructure’s conditions and performance. Fifty-eight percent, or $2.2 billion annually, would be needed to rehabilitate and replace assets to Maintain Conditions and 42 percent, or $1.6 billion, to purchase new assets in order to Maintain Performance. It is estimated that sixty-five percent of rehabilitation and replacement expenditures would be for vehicles, while asset expansion would be geared more heavily toward non-vehicles. The incremental costs to improve non-rail conditions are estimated to be $497 million annually, of which $471 million, would be needed for vehicle rehabilitation and replacement. The incremental costs to Improve Performance are estimated to be $631 million annually, of which 45 percent, or $286 million, would be spent on new vehicles (principally buses) and 55 percent, or $345 million, on new non-vehicle assets. Expenditures on non-vehicle assets include investments for the purchase or construction of dedicated highway lanes for Bus Rapid Transit. A total of $4.9 billion would be needed on an average annual basis to Improve both Conditions and Performance.
Rail Needs in Urban Areas with Populations over 1 MillionAbout 70 percent of the total transit investment requirements of large urban areas, or about $9.6 billion annually, would be needed to Maintain Conditions and Performance of the rail infrastructure. Sixty-one percent, or $5.9 billion annually, would be required to rehabilitate and replace assets to Maintain Conditions, and 39 percent, or $3.8 billion, for asset expansion, i.e., to purchase new assets to Maintain Performance as ridership increases. Sixty-six percent of the investments to rehabilitate and replace existing assets and 75 percent of the investment to acquire new assets would be for non-vehicles. The incremental cost to improve rail asset conditions so that they achieve an average condition rating of “good” by 2020 is estimated to be $171 million annually. This $171 million results from an incremental increase of $293 million for non-vehicle asset rehabilitation and replacement coupled with an incremental decrease of $122 million in vehicle rehabilitation and replacement. Vehicle rehabilitation and replacement expenditures are reduced under this scenario since vehicles are replaced earlier in their useful life leading to a reduction in rehabilitation expenses. The incremental costs to Improve Performance of these rail systems are estimated to be $3.4 million annually, including the cost of purchasing rights-of-way. Ninety percent, or $3.0 billion, of this would be needed to expand the non-vehicle rail infrastructure. This split between vehicle and non-vehicle investment for performance improvement is typical for new heavy and light rail infrastructure development projects. A total of $13.2 billion would be needed on an average annual basis to Improve both Conditions and Performance of rail in these areas.
Non-rail Needs in Areas with Populations of Under 1 MillionOver 95 percent of the transit investment requirements in areas with populations under 1 million is projected to be for non-rail transit. The annual cost to Maintain Conditions and Performance of the non-rail transit infrastructure in these areas is estimated to be $1.4 billion. The incremental investment required to Improve non-rail conditions, is estimated to be $489 million annually, with the bulk to be spent for vehicle acquisitions. Of the $517 million incremental annual investment to Improve Performance 84 percent, or $435 million, would need to be invested in acquiring new vehicles and 16 percent or $82 million would need to be invested in the new non-vehicle infrastructure. Sixty-three percent of investment required to Improve Performance stems from the lack of coverage by rural transit systems and unmet rural transit needs. The total amount needed to Improve both Conditions and Performance of non-rail transit in these areas is estimated to be $2.4 billion annually.
Rail Needs in Areas with Populations of Under 1 MillionRail needs in these less populated areas are minimal because only three light-rail systems currently operate in them. An estimated $32 million annually would be needed to Maintain Conditions and Performance. An additional $3 million would be required to Improve Conditions by increasing the rate at which old vehicles are replaced with new vehicles. The additional $112 million to Improve Performance will be principally for expansions of light rail. Of this amount, $10 million is estimated to be needed to purchase vehicles and $102 million to purchase non-vehicle assets— reasonably in line with the industry rule-of-thumb that light rail projects typically have a ratio of vehicle-tototal- system costs of about 11 percent. A total of $148 million would be required to Improve both Conditions and Performance of rail in rural areas.
Average Annual Investment Requirements by Detailed Asset Type
Exhibit 7-11 provides disaggregated annual investment requirements for rail and non-rail transportation modes by asset type for:
Assets are disaggregated into 5 categories—facilities, guideway elements, stations, systems, and vehicles. The annual funding requirements for supporting services are provided under “other project costs.” These include expenditures for administrative services and vehicles used for administrative or security purposes. The annual investment needed to design rail new systems and acquire rights-of-way to support new rail investments are reported under the Improve Performance scenario.
RailMore than 40 percent of rail rehabilitation and replacement investment, both in the Maintain Conditions and Improve Conditions scenarios, is estimated to be required for investment in guideway elements, including elevated structures, systems structures, and track. Investment required to Maintain guideway conditions is estimated to be $2.3 billion annually, and to Improve guideway conditions, $2.6 billion annually. Guideway elements are estimated to account for slightly more than 40 percent of the total value of the existing U.S. transit asset base. Twenty-four percent of elevated structures, 23 percent of underground tunnels, and 17 percent of rail track are in less than-adequate condition (below condition level 3). More than 32 percent of total rail rehabilitation and replacement investment will be needed for vehicles $2.0 billion annually to Maintain vehicle conditions and $2.9 billion annually to Improve vehicle conditions.
Rail systems (substations, overhead wire, and third rail), estimated to comprise about 10 percent of the value of the transit asset base, would also require investments$1.0 billion annually, or 17 percent of total rail infrastructure investment needs. Although many of these systems are in adequate or better condition (level 3 or above), they have an average useful life of around half that for other non-vehicle assets and have a more accelerated replacement schedule.
Facilities and stations would require the smallest levels of investment. Although 36 percent of facilities and 16 percent of stations are in less than adequate conditions, they have longer average replacement ages and comprise a relatively smaller proportion of the total rail infrastructure base (about 10 percent each).
The largest incremental investments needed to Maintain Performance through the expansion of the asset base would be for guideway elements ($1.4 billion annually) and vehicles ($1.0 billion annually). To Improve Performance $1.3 billion annually is estimated to be required for system design and rights-of-way acquisition.
Non-railVehicles account for the largest component of non-rail investment requirements. The bulk (70 to 75 percent) of non-rail rehabilitation and replacement expenditures would be for vehicles—$2.4 billion annually to Maintain Conditions and $3.3 billion annually to Improve Conditions. Vehicles are also estimated to account for the largest proportion (about 40 percent) of non-rail asset expansion investments, at about $800 million under both the Maintain and Improve scenarios. Guideway elements and facilities would also account for considerable proportions (20 percent each) of future non-rail asset expansion—$342 million annually for guideways and $333 million annually for facilities. About 62 percent of the expenditures required for performance improvement would be for vehicles ($721 million annually), 22 percent for facilities ($258 million annually), and 9 percent for guideway elements ($107 million annually).
Existing Deficiencies in the Transit Infrastructure
TERM estimates the amount of investment that would be required in order to correct existing deficiencies in the Nation’s transit infrastructure. This deficiency may also be referred to as the transit investment “backlog” similar to the backlog requirement calculated by HERS. TERM corrects infrastructure deficiencies by replacing all assets with conditions below the specified replacement level. These expenditures are averaged over the 20-year investment period. [See Appendix C]. TERM estimates that the $16.4 billion would be needed to correct all existing deficiencies under the Maintain Conditions scenario and $30.7 billion under the Improve Conditions scenario. These numbers do not include the costs of correcting for deficiencies in rural or special service transit services.