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Status of the Nation's Highways, Bridges, and Transit:
2006 Conditions and Performance
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Chapter 7: Executive Summary

Capital Investment Scenarios: Transit

Transit capital investment estimated under the "Maintain Conditions and Performance" scenario and estimated under the "Improve Conditions and Performance" scenario are 1.3 percent higher and 9 percent lower than in the 2004 report; the amount to improve performance has declined due to revisions in the benefit-cost analysis. Current investment estimates are for the period 2005–2024. The Maintain Conditions and Performance scenario projects the level of investment to maintain current average asset conditions over the 20 year period and to maintain current vehicle occupancy levels as transit passenger travel increases. The Improve Conditions and Performance scenario projects the level of invesment to raise the average condition of each major transit asset type to at least a level of "good," reduce average vehicle occupancy rates, and increase average vehicle speeds. The Improve Conditions and Performance scenario defines an upper limit above which additional investment in transit is unlikely to be economically justifiable.

Transit Average Annual Investment Scenario Estimatess,
2003–2022 and 2005–2024
(Billions of Dollars)Average Annual Cost
Conditions & Performance2003-2022
2002 Dollars
2005-2024
2004 Dollars
Maintain$15.6$15.8
Improve$24.0$21.8

Average annual investment is estimated to be $15.8 billion to maintain conditions and performance ($15.6 billion in 2002) and $21.8 billion to improve conditions and performance ($24.0 billion in 2002). Under the "Maintain" scenario, $10.4 billion annually would be needed for asset rehabilitation and replacement and $5.4 billion for asset expansion. Under the "Improve" scenario, $10.9 billion would be needed annually for replacement and rehabilitation, $5.4 billion for asset expansion, and $5.5 billion for performance improvements. Eighty-seven percent of the investment under the "Maintain" scenario, or $13.8 billion, would be required in urban areas with populations of over 1 million, reflecting the fact that in 2004, 92 percent of the Nation's passenger miles were in these areas.

Annual Cost to Maintain and Improve Conditions and Performance by Investment Type, 2005-2024. Stacked bar chart comparing values for two investment scenarios. For the scenario to maintain conditions and performance, the values are 10.4 billion dollars for rehabilitation and replacement, and 5.4 billion dollars for asset expansion. For the scenario to improve conditions and performance, the values are 10.9 billion dollars for rehabilitation and replacement, 5.4 billion dollars for asset expansion, 5.5 billion dollars for performance improvements.

Of the investment required to maintain conditions and performance, vehicles account for 45 percent ($7.1 billion annually), guideway elements for 18 percent ($2.9 billion), facilities for 12 percent ($1.9 billion), stations for 9 percent ($1.4 billion), systems for 9 percent ($1.4 billion) and other project costs for 6 percent ($1.0 billion). Of the investment under the Improve Conditions and Performance scenario, vehicles account for 42 percent ($9.2 billion annually), guideway elements for 19 percent ($4.2 billion), facilities for 11 percent ($2.4 billion), stations for 10 percent ($2.1 billion), systems for 7 percent ($1.6 billion) and other project costs for 11 percent ($2.3 billion).

Average Annual Transit Investment Scenario Estimates by Asset Type, 2005–2024
(Billions of 2004 Dollars)
 MaintainImprove
Vehicles$7.1$9.2
Guideway Elements$2.9$4.2
Facilities$1.9$2.4
Stations$1.4$2.1
Systems$1.4$1.6
Other Project Costs$1.0$2.3
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