Special Tabulations

FHWA National Vehicle Miles Traveled Projection

FHWA has constructed a national vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecasting model where future VMT growth rates can be estimated for three major economic scenarios - normal, pessimistic, and optimistic growth. The normal growth scenario represents the most Likely economic outlook reflects IHS' assessment of most probable future trends in U.S. population, employment, capital investment, productivity growth, and aggregate economic output, with stable energy prices. The pessimistic economic outlook reflects slower growth in employment, investment, productivity, and output compared to historical norms, with volatile and generally increasing energy prices. The optimistic economic outlook reflects unusually rapid growth in employment, investment, productivity, and economic output, as well as stable or declining energy prices.

The VMT projection information is updated annually in the month of May based on IHS Inc.’s spring release of our nation’s long term economic data.

1. Model documentation
2. 2023 Release of Future VMT Growth
3. Historical VMT Forecasting Data