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|Federal Highway Administration > Publications > Public Roads > Vol. 69 · No. 2 > Scenario Planning|
Publication Number: FHWA-HRT-05-007
by Sherry B. Ways and Cynthia Burbank
This new paradigm for decisionmaking is helping communities and States prepare for the future.
Nobel Prize Laureate Niels Bohr once said, "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future." With land development occurring rapidly, pressures on the environment increasing, congestion levels growing, housing costs rising, and the population aging, what is to be done?
These quality-of-life concerns and others appeared to be foremost on the minds of citizens in the Greater Wasatch region of the Salt Lake City, UT, metropolitan area when they took control of their future through a scenario planning process called Envision Utah. As with many regions, Utah faces serious challenges of rapid growth and deficits in needed infrastructure. "The Greater Wasatch region could not continue to grow in the future as it had in the past," says Ted Knowlton, planning director at the Coalition for Utah's Future, which sponsors Envision Utah.
Formed in 1997 as a public-private partnership, Envision Utah guides the development of a broad and publicly supported growth strategy to protect the State's environment, economic strength, and quality of life. Instead of using a typical approach to planning that involves one forecast and one solution, participants in a series of workshops convened by Envision Utah set out to develop and evaluate a range of alternative futures. Participants developed four possible alternatives for future growth and identified criteria-including total land consumption, average daily vehicle miles traveled, and air quality-to evaluate each alternative.
In a subsequent public survey, residents voted for their preferred scenario. Based on the scenario chosen, Envision Utah generated a vision document with 42 specific strategies. Envision Utah now is working with the various governments in the region to implement those strategies.
What Is Scenario Planning?
The scenario planning process employed by Envision Utah is an analytical tool that can help prepare for the future by providing a framework for developing a shared vision. In other words, scenario planning is a part of strategic planning that incorporates assumptions, risks, and environmental factors by using scenarios to present various situations that may affect the future. Transportation scenario planners analyze various forces that affect growth, such as the economy, transportation, health, the environment, and land use.
Scenario planning is applicable at the statewide level or for individual metropolitan areas. Scenario planners test various future alternatives that could meet State and community needs. A defining characteristic of successful scenario planning for the public sector is that it actively engages the public, the business community, and elected officials in identifying the growth trends and tradeoffs, gaining a mutual understanding, and incorporating their values into future plans.
Envision Utah is one of many examples. Other communities and regions that have used scenario planning include Sacramento, CA, which called its process the Sacramento Blueprint; Chicago, IL (Chicago Metropolis 2020); the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission; Charlottesville, VA (Jefferson Area Eastern Planning Initiative); the Idaho Transportation Department (Idaho's Transportation Future); and Binghamton, NY (Binghamton Metropolitan Transportation Study).
Scenario planning offers the following benefits:
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) actively encourages and supports scenario planning to help citizens, businesspeople, and government officials understand the impacts of growth, especially the relationship between transportation, social and environmental issues, and economic development. This relationship is a two-way street: Growth and development affect transportation performance, while transportation affects social, environmental, and economic development.
Scenario Planning and Transportation Planning
Scenario planning enhances regional transportation planning, which is a comprehensive, holistic look at the needs and the future of a region and its inhabitants. (See "Transportation Planning" for more details.) Scenario planning takes the transportation planning process a step further by increasing participants' awareness of external forces of change (such as population growth and aging, immigration, and economic factors) and by enabling participants to consider alternative approaches to shaping their future, including policies related to land use, the environment, and transportation.
Inevitably, the process involves difficult tradeoffs, especially regarding land use policies; therefore, public participation is essential to raise awareness and foster collaborative thinking. Scenario planning enables participants to realistically evaluate a wider variety of potential futures and determine a community's future.
"FHWA sees scenario planning as an enhancement of, not a replacement for, the traditional transportation planning process," says Gloria M. Shepherd, director of the FHWA Office of Planning. "It enables communities and transportation agencies to better prepare for the future."
Scenario planning highlights the major forces that may shape the future, such as an aging population moving into an area perhaps calling for more transit opportunities or dense land use calling for additional road capacity. Scenario planning identifies how those forces might interact, rather than attempting to predict one specific outcome. As a result, regional decisionmakers are better prepared to recognize the various forces shaping the future, to make more informed decisions today, and to strategize for meeting tomorrow's needs.
The Greek philosopher Aristotle once said, "The whole is more than the sum of its parts." Aristotle's assertion can be applied to scenario planning, which depends upon understanding many different forces and trends that feed into mobility and transportation, and can affect that system. Each scenario may have a tremendous impact on the future, such as the shutdown of mines in the past that created ghost towns across areas in the West. Today, alternative fuel sources for automobiles may change the funding of road infrastructure. Economic, demographic, health, technological, and environmental factors are all important in determining future demands on the country's transportation system and its role in people's lives. Changes in demographics, safety, congestion, the environment, technology, and health and activity all produce trends.
Demographics. According to Alan E. Pisarski, a noted transportation researcher, the United States adds the equivalent of Canada's population to its own population every 10 years. But have we been adding the equivalent of Canada's transportation infrastructure? Not even close.
Complicating the situation, current growth patterns are different than those in the past. Today, population growth is spread across the country such that in the last decade, every State in the Nation experienced an increase. By the year 2000, more than half the country's population lived in suburbs. Half also worked outside the county in which they lived. These new growth trends must be understood on an individual basis because they may vary from one region to another.
Safety. According to a research note by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), "Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes as a Leading Cause of Death in the United States, 2001," motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death among Americans from age 4 to 33. Major contributors to the death toll are alcohol, speed, and various other driver behaviors. The kinds of vehicles people drive and the roads on which they travel also contribute to crashes. In the year 2000, NHTSA estimated that motor vehicle crashes cost $230 billion, or 2.3 percent of the gross domestic product.
Congestion. The 2004 Urban Mobility Report, published by the Texas Transportation Institute, shows traffic congestion growing across the Nation in cities of all sizes, consuming more hours of the day and affecting more travelers and shipments of goods than ever before. In 2002, congestion (based on wasted time and fuel) cost about $63.2 billion in 85 urban areas, compared to $61 billion in 2001. Up to 60 percent of unexpected traffic delays stem from what traffic engineers call "nonrecurring congestion." FHWA research shows that the causes of this type of congestion are crashes and disabled vehicles (25 percent), bad weather (15 percent), work zones (10 percent), special events (5 percent), and poor signal timing (5 percent). When roadways are congested, air quality worsens, security degrades, leisure and family activities are curtailed, service calls are less reliable and more costly, intermodal shipments are disrupted, and economic vitality is wasted due to lost productivity and wasted fuel.
To combat the growth of congestion and make travel times more reliable, FHWA is promoting and funding a number of strategies, including high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, transit improvements, traffic signal synchronization, congestion pricing on toll facilities, traveler information systems, incident management systems, dynamic message signs, improved freight connectors, public-private partnerships to finance new capacity, and much more. But travel demand continues to outpace improvements in transportation capacity.
Environment. After the publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962, Americans became increasingly concerned about protecting the natural environment. Federal, State, and local governments passed dozens of laws that improved air and water quality while protecting wildlife habitat and wetlands. Population and economic growth, however, continue to put pressure on natural resources. Americans want to continue improving air and water quality while accommodating housing, economic development, and recreational needs, and allowing mobility that is unparalleled in the world. This trend has resulted in an increased recognition by transportation agencies that protection of human, natural, and cultural resources must be a goal early in the transportation planning process.
Health and Activity. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, obesity is on the rise. The number of States with an obese adult population of more than 15 percent has increased from 4 out of 45 participating States in 1991 to 49 out of 50 States in 2002. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services testimony before Congress in 2003 indicated that nationally about 65 percent of adults and 15 percent of children and adolescents were overweight. Obesity is a major risk factor for many serious health problems, such as diabetes, hypertension, and psychosocial conditions. It also contributes to soaring health care costs in the United States, undermining the financial stability of all levels of Government as well as families and individuals. Obesity trends are important to transportation planning because investments in infrastructure may have an impact on people's lifestyles. Changes in the built environment, such as provision of sidewalks, bicycle trails, parks, and recreational facilities, can help support the trend toward more active lifestyles and exercise.
Other Trends. Other relevant trends include public finance, global trade competition, energy consumption, and land development. All of these trends are considered drivers of social change, and they are related to a region's values, quality of life, and land use. Integrating them will lead to improved transportation planning.
Planners can communicate the importance of these trends to the broader community through scenario planning. In some cases, trying to address or mitigate one trend could affect another. By creating and evaluating various scenarios, communities can understand how the trends might interact and therefore choose options that best address the myriad issues they are facing.
The Steps in Scenario Planning
Using a variety of tools and techniques, participants in scenario planning assess trends in the key factors and bring them together in alternative future scenarios, each reflecting different trend assumptions and tradeoff preferences. As a result of the process, all stakeholders in a region-the public, business leaders, and elected officials-strive to gain consensus on a preferred scenario. This scenario becomes the long-term policy framework for the community's evolution, is used to guide decisionmaking, and can be embodied in the long-range transportation plan.
An underlying premise of scenario planning is that it is better to get the future imprecisely right than to get the future precisely wrong. Predictions of the future are never exactly correct. Rather than picking one definitive picture of the future and planning for that future, scenario planning enables stakeholders in a region to consider various possibilities and identify policies that can adapt to changing circumstances. Scenarios do not describe a forecasted end state but rather are stories about future conditions that convey a range of possible outcomes.
People are notoriously reluctant to accept change. They resist increased development, increased traffic, limits on land use, limits on their mobility, and loss of open space. But the United States continues to grow, and growth brings positive as well as negative impacts on the lives of Americans. There are tradeoffs. Scenario planning can help people understand the forces of change and the collective choices they have.
For many, the first step is to identify the quality of life values that are important to the region. This information provides the foundation for scenario development. These issues can be expressed as questions about the future that the scenarios might answer. Planners, working in close coordination with community leaders, businesses, local officials, the public, and other stakeholders, could undertake the following additional six steps.
Step 1: Research the driving forces. Define the major sources of change that affect the future, whether those forces are predictable or not. Some of the relatively predictable elements are local demographics, trends in local land use, levels of congestion, and mode split. Less predictable are macro elements such as the global economy, future availability of funding for infrastructure, global environmental conditions, and technological innovation. Many other driving forces are uncertain, but narrowing them down will help advance a scenario planning process.
Step 2: Determine patterns of interaction. Consider how the driving forces could combine to determine future conditions. To etermine these patterns of interaction between driving forces, planners can develop a matrix that identifies the driving forces as a pair of opposites with a potential positive or negative outcome. For example, if the economy is a driving force, it can be labeled as having either no growth or fast growth. By determining the interaction of each driving force, scenarios can be created.
As part of a scenario planning process, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, the MPO for the Greater Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton region of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, developed a matrix that categorized various transportation impact assessments and relevant policy concerns that affect long-range planning. To determine patterns of interaction, the MPO assessed scenarios against future spatial characteristics of the region, future mobility and accessibility needs, and potential congestion locations, and then quantified delay costs. The matrix enabled the MPO to understand the interactions and devise five scenarios to present for public review, along with policy support measures for each scenario. The results of this process served as a foundation for the region's 2030 transportation planning process.
Step 3: Create scenarios. When generating scenarios, planners should think through the implications of different strategies in different future environments. The goal is to bring life to the scenarios so that community stakeholders can easily recognize and connect the various components. Planners creating stories based on the interaction of driving forces and how those drivers affect local factors might develop scenarios that challenge existing thought patterns.
Step 4: Analyze the implications. Ultimately, scenario planning is a technique for improving decisionmaking, not only about transportation but also about land use, public investment, and environmental policies. The scenarios enable planners to explore the shape and nature of transportation in a variety of circumstances, using a range of tools. They can present scenarios visually by employing various software tools, such as geographic information systems. The use of visual information to show the interactions in each scenario can help the public and decisionmakers understand the consequences of potential actions and the potential impacts of various scenarios.
Step 5: Evaluate scenarios. Planners can measure the scenarios against one another by comparing indicators relating to land use, transportation, demographics, environment, economics, technology, and other driving forces. During large regional public meetings, graphic simulations of alternative scenarios can stimulate understanding and decisionmaking among stakeholders. Through this process, the community can formulate reasoned responses and enhance its ability to respond to change.
Step 6: Monitor indicators. Scenario planning is an ongoing process. As the future unfolds, planners need to assess and compare real growth patterns to the selected scenarios and devise new scenarios, make new decisions, or create policies to address changing conditions.
FHWA offers technical support, fund planning, information, and research to State, regional, and local partners as they undertake scenario planning. Recent FHWA efforts include the following:
"Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do something about it now," said time management guru Alan Lakein.
Sherry B. Ways is a transportation planner for the FHWA Office of Planning in Washington, DC. She has more than 10 years of experience in transportation planning and is a staff member of the Transportation Planning Capacity Building Team. She can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Cynthia J. Burbank is the associate administrator of the FHWA Office of Planning, Environment, and Realty. She has worked for the U.S. Department of Transportation for 30 years for a variety of agencies. She can be contacted at email@example.com.
For more information about FHWA's scenario planning initiative, go to http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenplan/index.htm.
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