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Publication Number: FHWA-RD-03-037
Date: May 2005

Validation of Accident Models for Intersections

FHWA Contact: John Doremi,
HRDI-10, (202) 493-3052, John.doremi@dot.gov

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APPENDIX D: CURE PLOTS FOR TYPE I, II, III, IV, AND V AADT MODELS

Figure 23. CURE Plot for Type I TOTACC AADT Model. Graph. This figure illustrates the CURE plot for the covariate AADT for the total accidents for the selected AADT-only model for Type I intersections. Please confirm. It plots adjusted cumulative residuals against two standard deviations. Major AADT is graphed on the X axis from 0 to 40,000 (in increments of 5,000), and cumulative residuals are graphed on the Y axis from negative 250 to 250. All adjusted cumulative residuals oscillate around the value of 0, and all but 4 lie between the boundary formed by the two standard deviations. This boundary forms a pear-shape in which the large end is to the left of the graph, and extends from 0 to 36,000 major AADTs and negative 200 to positive 200 cumulative residuals.

Figure 23. CURE Plot for Type I TOTACC AADT Model

 

Figure 24. CURE Plot for Type II TOTACC AADT Model. Graph. This figure illustrates the CURE plot for the covariate AADT for the total accidents for the selected AADT-only model for Type II intersections. Please confirm. It plots adjusted cumulative residuals against two standard deviations. Major AADT is graphed on the X axis from 0 to 45,000 (in increments of 5,000), and cumulative residuals are graphed on the Y axis from negative 250 to 250. All adjusted cumulative residuals oscillate around the value of 0, and all but 1 lie between boundary formed by the two standard deviations. This boundary forms a vertical oval on the left of the graph that spikes sharply to the right, and extends from 0 to 38,000 major AADTs and negative 200 to positive 200 cumulative residuals.

Figure 24. CURE Plot for Type II TOTACC AADT Model

 

Figure 25. CURE Plot for Type III TOTACC AADT Model. Graph. This figure illustrates the CURE plot for the covariate AADT for the total accidents for the selected AADT-only model for Type III intersections. Please confirm. It plots adjusted cumulative residuals against two standard deviations. Major AADT is graphed on the X axis from 0 to 80,000 (in increments of 10,000), and cumulative residuals are graphed on the Y axis from negative 25 to 25. All adjusted cumulative residuals oscillate around the value of 0 and lie between boundary formed by the two standard deviations. This boundary forms a large rectangle, with smaller rectangles on both the left and right of the graph.  It extends from 0 to 75,000 major AADTs and negative 22 to positive 22 cumulative residuals.

Figure 25. CURE Plot for Type III TOTACC AADT Model

 

Figure 26. CURE Plot for Type IV TOTACC AADT Model. Graph. This figure illustrates the CURE plot for the covariate AADT for the total accidents for the selected AADT-only model for Type IV intersections. Please confirm. It plots adjusted cumulative residuals against two standard deviations. Major AADT is graphed on the X axis from 0 to 80,000 (in increments of 10,000), and cumulative residuals are graphed on the Y axis from negative 30 to 30. All adjusted cumulative residuals oscillate around the value of 0 but tend toward the positive side of 0.  Eleven adjusted cumulative residuals fall outside of the boundary formed by the two standard deviations. This boundary forms a guitar shape, with the large, rounded portion on the left of the graph.  The boundary extends from 0 to 70,000 major AADTs and negative 21 to positive 21 cumulative residuals.

Figure 26. CURE Plot for Type IV TOTACC AADT Model

 

Figure 27. CURE Plot for Type V TOTACC AADT Model. Graph. This figure illustrates the CURE plot for the covariate AADT for the total accidents for the selected AADT-only model for Type V intersections. Please confirm. It plots adjusted cumulative residuals against two standard deviations. Major AADT is graphed on the X axis from 0 to 30,000 (in increments of 5,000), and cumulative residuals are graphed on the Y axis from negative 40 to 40. All adjusted cumulative residuals oscillate around the value of 0 but tend toward the positive side of 0.  All adjusted cumulative residuals fall within the boundary formed by the two standard deviations. This boundary is similar to the boundary in figure 26, but wider at almost all points. The boundary extends from 0 to 25,500 major AADTs and negative 34 to positive 34 cumulative residuals.

Figure 27. CURE Plot for Type V TOTACC AADT Model

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