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Population Forecasting Methods: A Report on Forecasting and Estimating Methods

Appendix III: Additional Readings

General Information

Chapin, F. Stuart, Jr., "Population Studies" Chapter 7 Urban Land Use Planning, New York, Harper & Brothers, 1957, pp. 152-190.

Dorn, Harold F., "Pitfalls in Population Forecasts and Projections," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 45, No. 251, September 1950, pp. 311-334.

Hagood, Margaret Jarman, & Siegel, Jacob S., Population Projections for Sales Forecasting, paper presented before the Business & Economics Statistics Section at the 111th Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Boston, Massachusetts, Dec. 27, 1951.

Hajnal, John, "The Prospects for Population Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 50, No. 270, June 1955, pp. 309-322.

Isard, Walter, and others, Methods of Regional Analysis: An Introduction to Regional Science, Technology Press of MIT and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,

Jaffe, A. J., Handbook of Statistical Methods for Demographers, (preliminary edition 1951, third printing 1960), U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. (cost $1.75)

Schnore, Leo F., "A Planner's Guide to the 1960 Census of Population, "Journal of the American Institute of Planners) Vol. 29, No. 1, February 1963, pp. 29-39.

Siegel, Jacob S., "Forecasting the Population of Small Areas," Land Economics, Vol. XXIX, No. 1, February 1953, pp. 72-88.

Siegel, Jacob, "Some Aspects of the Methodology of Population Forecasts for Geographic Subdivisions of Countries," Proceedings of the World Population Conference, 1954, United Nations, New York, 1955, pp. 113-133.

Siegel, Jacob S., Zitter, Meter, and Akers, Donald S., "Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age and Sex: 1964 to 1985, Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, Series p. 25, No. 286, July 1964.

Stanbery, Van Beuren, Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1952, Domestic Commerce Series no. 32, (Out of print)

Taeuber, Conrad, & Hansen, Morris H., "A Preliminary Evaluation of the 1960 Census of Population," Demography, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1964.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, Vol. 1, Characteristics of the Population, Part I, United States Summary, pages XI to XCI.

Weiss, Shirely F., 'Basic Planning Studies, Population Studies," Local Planning Administration, International City Managers Association, Chicago, Illinois, third edition, 1959, pp. 76-83.

White, Helen R., "Empirical Study of the Accuracy of Selected Methods of Projecting State Population," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 49, No. 207, September 1954, pp. 480-499.

Zitter, Meyer, "Population Projections for Local Areas," Public Works June 1957.

Forecasting Methods

Ratio Methods

Hagood, Margaret J., and Siegel, Jacob S., "Projections of the Regional Distribution of the Population of the United States to 1975," Agricultural Economic Research, Vol. III, No. 2, April 1951, pp. 41-52.

Schmitt, Robert c ., "A Method of Projecting the Population of Census Tracts," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 1954, page 102.

Loomer, Harlin A., "Accuracy of the Ratio Method for Forecasting City Population: A Reply," Land Economics, Vol. 28, No. 2, May 1952, pp. 180-183.

Schmitt, Robert C. and Crossetti, Albert H., "Accuracy of the Ratio Method: Rejoinder," Land Economics, Vol. 28, No. 2, May 1952, pp. 183-184.

Stanbery, Van Beuren, Some New Techniques for Area Population Projections, San Francisco, California, September 25, 1959.

Sandgren, Ann S., and Walker, John R., Population Trends and Projections, Interim Report, Puget Sound Regional Transportation Study, September 14, 1959.

White, Helen R., Siegel, Jacob S., and Rosen, Beatrice M., "Short Cuts in Computing Ratio Projections of Population," Agricultural Economics Research, Vol. V, No. 1, January 1953, pp. 5-11.

Component Methods

Portland, Oregon, Metropolitan Planning Commission, Population Prospects (Projections of the metropolitan population to 1975 with age-group and geographic distributions) July 1960.

Tarver, James D., "A Component Method of Estimating and Projecting State and Subdivisional Population," Misc. Publications MP 54, Oklahoma State University Experiment Station, December 1959.

U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 43

Estimating Methods

Bogus, Donald J., A Composite Method for Estimating Postcensal Population of Small Agree by Age, Sex, and Color, from "Vital Statistics-Special Reports, Selected Studies," Vol. 47, No. 6, August 24, 1959, U.S. Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, pp. 167-185.

Bogue, Donald J., "A Technique for Making Extensive Population Estimates," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 45, No. 250, June 1950, pp. 1 9-1 3.

Brown, Hugh H., "A Technique for Estimating the Population of Counties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 50, No. 270, June 1955, pp. 323-343.

Eldridge, Hope T., "Suggested Procedures for Estimating the Current Population of Counties," Population, Special Reports, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Series P-47, No. 4, April 30, 1947.

Maryland, University of, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Studies in Business and Economics, Predicting Population changes in Small Areas Volume 14, No. 41 March 1961, College Park, Maryland.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, Series P-25, No. 20, May 6, 1949, No. 133, March 16, 1956, and No. 165, Nov. 4, 1957.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Estimates of the Population of Selected Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas-. July 1, 1962," Current Population Reports Population Estimates, Series P-25, 110. 282, April 14, 1964.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security, Handbook on Estimating Population of Labor, Washington, D.C., November 1959.

Zitter. Meyer and Shryock, Henry S., Jr., Accuracy of Methods of Preparing Postcensul Population Estimates for States 3, Local Areas, published in Demography, Vol. 1, 1964

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