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Managing Uncertainty and Risk in Travel Forecasting: A White Paper


October 2013

Also available as Adobe PDF. (619 KB)

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1. Report No.

2. Government Accession No.

3. Recipient's Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle
Managing Uncertainty and Risk in Travel Forecasting: A White Paper

5. Report Date
December 2013


6. Performing Organization Code

7. Authors
William A. Woodford

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address
2200 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 205
Arlington, VA 22201

10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

  1. Contract or Grant No.

DTFH61-12-D-00013, T-12002

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address
United States Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Ave. SE
Washington, DC 20590

13. Type of Report and Period Covered
September 2013 - September 2015

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. Supplementary Notes
The project was managed by Sarah Sun, COR for Federal Highway Administration
The report has been reviewed by TMIP Travel Analysis Toolbox Project Independent Review Panel members

16. Abstract
This paper describes the uncertainties and risks associated with travel forecasts, and suggests methods for their management. There are many ways of defining risk and uncertainty. In this paper, these terms are used according to the International Standard ISO 31000 (2009) definition of risk: "effect of uncertainty on objectives." By this definition, risk has two elements'a probability that an event will or will not occur (uncertainty), and a consequence (the impact on an organization's objectives).

17. Key Words
travel forecasting

18. Distribution Statement
No restrictions. This document is available to the public at

19. Security Classif. (of this report)

20. Security Classif. (of this page)

21. No. of Pages

22. Price

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