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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2020) - Kansas

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The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/spm/.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2020 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 385 355 429 461 405 410 426
    5-Year Average 407.0 412.0 426.2
    Target (5-Year Average) 411.0 364.0 407.0
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    The 2020 five-year moving average projection based upon the trend line indicates 411 fatalities. A flat projection would derive our goal of 411 fatalities in 2020. Based upon recent history, the trend line of the target, the flat projection is realistic and attainable.
    Going back to 2015, the five-year moving average projects to 432 in 2021. Historically, we established our targets at or up to one percent below the projection depending on current trends. The 2019 baseline is 412. Our 2018 target was 364. Going forward, our target will be whichever is less of these three: one percent below projected, baseline, or 2018 target. To hit our target of 364 requires a two-year average of 272.5 in CY 2020 and 2021; to hit the baseline of 412 requires a two-year average of 392.5.
    The 2022 five-year moving average projection based upon the trendline indicates 444 fatalities. An eight percent reduction would derive our goal of 407 fatalities in 2022. Based upon recent history, the trendline of the target, the eight percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable. The 2022 HSP and 2022 HSIP five-year moving average targets are equal.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2019-2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 1.25 1.13 1.34 1.43 1.26 1.29 1.53
    5-Year Average 1.282 1.290 1.370
    Target (5-Year Average) 1.250 1.160 1.280
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    The 2020 five-year moving average projection based upon the trend line indicates a fatality rate of 1.26. A one percent reduction in this projection would derive our goal of 1.25 fatality rate in 2020. Based upon recent history, the trend line of the target, the one percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable.
    Going back to 2015, the five-year moving average projects to 1.32 in 2021. Historically, we established our targets at or up to one percent below the projection depending on current trends. The 2019 baseline is 1.28. Our 2018 target was 1.16. Going forward, our target will be whichever is less of these three: one percent below projected, baseline, or 2018 target. To hit our target of 1.160 requires a two-year average of 0.925 in CY 2020 and 2021; to hit the baseline of 1.28 requires a two-year average of 1.225.
    The 2022 five-year moving average projection based upon the trendline indicates a fatality rate of 1.38. A seven percent reduction in this projection would derive our goal of 1.28 fatality rate in 2022. Based upon recent history, the trendline of the target, the seven percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable. The 2022 HSP and 2022 HSIP five-year moving average targets are equal.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2019-2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 1,204 1,195 1,176 1,030 1,000 1,400 1,586
    5-Year Average 1,121.0 1,160.2 1,238.4
    Target (5-Year Average) 907.0 1,190.0 1,164.0
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    The 2020 five-year moving average projection based upon the trend line indicates 916 serious injuries. A one percent reduction in this projection would derive our goal of 907 serious injuries in 2020. Based upon recent history, the trend line of the target, the one percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable.
    Going back to 2015, the five-year moving average projects to 1231 in 2021 based on a curvilinear trendline to adjust for the change in serious injury definition. Historically, we established our targets at or up to one percent below the projection depending on current trends. The 2019 baseline is 1160. Our 2018 target was 1190. Going forward, our target will be whichever is less of these two: one percent below projected or 2018 target. To hit our target of 1190 requires a two-year average of 1260.5 in CY 2020 and 2021; to hit the baseline of 1160 requires a two-year average of 1185.5. Because of the change in serious injury definition, we will evaluate this approach annually. As a reference, with the new definition the total in 2019 was 1394. The goal in our 2020-2024 SHSP is to be at or below 35 fatal and injury crashes per 100MVM in 2024. But our vision remains the same: Drive to Zero. This target moves us toward our goal but emphasizes our vision.
    The 2022 five-year moving average projection based upon the trend line indicates 1,265 serious injuries. An eight percent reduction in this projection would derive our target of 1,164 serious injuries in 2022. With the change in definition to suspected serious injury, there was a sharp increase in crashes meeting the definition. This is an artificial increase, not an actual degradation of safety. In order to re-establish a trendline for this category, it was determined to “back-cast”; how many suspected serious injuries would have occurred in past years with the new definition. We used a conversion factor to inflate previous years' crashes by 1.46 (46% increase). This allows for a steady, downward trend that we predict would have occurred apart from the definition change. 2020 defied that trend with a rise in suspected serious injuries, but we do not expect that to continue, that suspected serious injuries will resume falling. It is this trend upon which we based our suspected serious injury target. Based upon recent history, the trendline of the target, the eight percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable. The 2022 HSP and 2022 HSIP five-year moving average targets are equal. The data reflects serious injuries as defined by the NHTSA/FHWA conversion table. In Kansas, that equates to the number of disabling injuries as recorded in our state crash database. In 2019 the definition of serious injury changed to meet current federal guidelines. The name also changed from disabling injury to suspected serious injury in the states crash database.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2019-2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 3.92 3.81 3.66 3.19 3.11 4.40 5.69
    5-Year Average 3.538 3.634 4.010
    Target (5-Year Average) 2.750 3.726 3.576
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    The 2020 five-year moving average projection based upon the trend line indicates 2.77 serious injury rate per 100 million VMT. A one percent reduction in this projection would lead to our goal of 2.75 serious injury rate per 100 million VMT in 2020. Based upon recent history, the trend line of the target, the one percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable.
    Going back to 2015, the five-year moving average projects to 3.764 in 2021 based on a curvilinear trendline to adjust for the change in serious injury definition. Historically, we established our targets at or up to two percent below the projection depending on current trends. The 2019 baseline is 3.619. Our 2018 target was 3.774. Going forward, our target will be whichever is less of these two: one percent below projected or 2018 target. To hit our target of 3.726 requires a two-year average of 4.010 in CY 2020 and 2021; to hit the baseline of 3.619 requires a two-year average of 3.742. Because of the change in serious injury definition, we will evaluate this approach annually. As a reference, with the new definition the rate in 2019 was 4.291.
    The 2022 five-year moving average projection based upon the curvilinear trendline indicates 3.887 serious injury rate per 100 million VMT. An eight percent reduction in this projection would lead to our goal of 3.576 serious injury rate per 100 million VMT in 2022. With the change in definition to suspected serious injury, there was a sharp increase in crashes meeting the definition. This is an artificial increase, not an actual degradation of safety. In order to re-establish a trendline for this category, it was determined to “back-cast”; how many suspected serious injuries would have occurred in past years with the new definition. We used a conversion factor to inflate previous years' crashes by 1.46 (46% increase). This allows for a steady, downward trend that we predict would have occurred apart from the definition change. 2020 defied that trend with a rise in suspected serious injuries, but we do not expect that to continue, that suspected serious injuries will resume falling. It is this trend upon which we based our suspected serious injury target. Based upon recent history, the trendline of the target, the eight percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable. The 2022 HSP and 2022 HSIP five-year moving average targets are equal. The data in this table reflect serious injuries as defined by the NHTSA/FHWA conversion table. In Kansas, that equates to the number of disabling injuries as recorded in our state crash database. In 2019 the definition of serious injury changed to meet current federal guidelines. The name also changed from disabling injury to suspected serious injury in the states crash database.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2019-2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 129 134 157 139 137 150 172
    5-Year Average 139.2 143.4 151.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 131.0 138.0 157.0
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    The 2020 five year moving average projection based upon the trend line indicates 133 fatalities and serious injuries. A one percent reduction in this projection would derive our goal of 131 fatalities and serious injuries in 2020. Based upon recent history, the trend line of the target, the one percent reduction goal is realistic and attainable.
    Going back to 2015, the five-year moving average projects to 142 in 2021. Historically, we established our targets at or up to one percent below the projection depending on current trends. The 2019 baseline is 139. Our 2018 target was 138. Going forward, our target will be whichever is less of these three: one percent below projected, baseline, or 2018 target. To hit our target of 138 requires a two-year average of 139.5 in CY 2020 and 2021; to hit the baseline of 139 requires a two-year average of 142. As a reference, with the new definition for the serious injury the total in 2019 was 146.
    With the change in definition to suspected serious injury, there was a sharp increase in crashes meeting the definition. This is an artificial increase, not an actual degradation of safety. In order to re-establish a trendline for this category, it was determined to “back-cast”; how many suspected serious injuries would have occurred in past years with the new definition. We used a conversion factor to inflate previous years' crashes by 1.46 (46% increase). This allows for a steady, downward trend that we predict would have occurred apart from the definition change. Back-casting serious injuries for non-motorized leads to a descending trend (as opposed to the ascent in the raw data). From there, and including fatalities the projected point for 2022 is 171. To be consistent with our target for fatalities and serious injuries, the target was set 8% below projection at 157.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2019-2021 Kansas HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

2020 Comments:

The state of Kansas is fortunate in that both the SHSP and HSP administrators are in the KDOT Bureau of Transportation Safety and Technology. Calculations of the four common performance targets used the five-year moving average data to plan programs, establish goals and track progress. Both plans rely heavily on the same data sources to establish strategies and goals. These data sources include, but are not limited to: FARS, the statewide crash database, and observational surveys. The four identified performance measures – fatalities, fatality rate, serious injuries and serious injury rate – have the same definition and goals.

2021 Comments:

Establishing targets for 2021 was complicated by two items: the change in serious injury definition that became effective in Kansas January 1, 2019 and the unknown impact of COVID-19. Regarding the former, serious injuries increased by about 40 percent in 2019 compared to 2018. Regarding the latter, much remains unknown; but as of this report, like many states fatalities are up in Kansas while VMT is down. In our new 2020-2024 SHSP, the overall goal of the five-year plan is to achieve a fatal and injury crash rate of less than 35 crashes per 100 MVM travel by 2024. But our vision remains the same: Drive to Zero. These targets help move us toward our intermediate goal, while placing emphasis on our long-term vision.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Kansas 2020 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2016-2020 Target 2016-2020 Actual 2014-2018 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 411.0 426.2 407.0 NO NO NO
Rate of Fatalities 1.250 1.370 1.282 NO NO
Number of Serious Injuries 907.0 1,238.4 1,121.0 NO NO
Rate of Serious Injuries 2.750 4.010 3.538 NO NO
Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries 131.0 151.0 139.2 NO NO

Updated: 04/19/2022
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