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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Minnesota

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The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 411 392 358 381 364 394 488
    5-Year Average 381.2 377.8 397.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 352.4 352.4 352.4
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    The forthcoming SHSP has established a mid-term goal of no more than 225 fatalities by 2025. A linear trend was derived from 2019 fatalities to the 2025 goal. The 2021 target was established by averaging the outcomes from 2017 through 2019 with the computed trend for 2020-2021. As a result, the target measures Minnesota's progress toward the SHSP goal.
    Target equal to 2021.
    Based on the recent uptick in fatalities, it was not considered feasible to maintain the prior method marking progress toward the 2025 SHSP goal. This would require a 55% annual reduction in fatalities for 2 years; from 2017-2021 there was a 7% annual increase in traffic fatalities statewide. Minnesota does not find it acceptable set safety targets greater than prior years: as such the 2023 Target is set equal to the 2022 Target. To achieve this target, it is estimated that traffic fatalities must be reduced by 36% annually for 2 years.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2020-2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 0.72 0.66 0.60 0.63 0.60 0.76 0.85
    5-Year Average 0.642 0.650 0.688
    Target (5-Year Average) 0.582 0.582 0.582
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    The number of fatalities used the outcomes from 2017-2019 and the computed 2020-2021 trend; a conservative estimate of +0.5% vehicle miles traveled was used for the annual rates.
    Progression from 2019 to SHSP goal.
    Based on the recent uptick in fatalities, it was not considered feasible to maintain the prior method marking progress toward the 2025 SHSP goal. This would require a 64% annual reduction in fatality rate for 2 years; from 2017-2021 there was a 8% annual increase in statewide fatality rate. Minnesota does not find it acceptable set safety targets greater than prior years: as such the 2023 Target is set equal to the 2022 Target. To achieve this target, it is estimated that the statewide fatality rate must be reduced by 44% annually for 2 years.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2020-2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 1,127 1,992 1,849 1,660 1,520 1,569 1,722
    5-Year Average 1,629.6 1,718.0 1,664.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 1,579.8 1,463.4 1,463.4
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    The forthcoming SHSP has established a mid-term goal of no more than 980 serious injuries by 2025. A linear trend was derived from 2019 serious injuries to the 2025 goal. The 2021 target was established by averaging the outcomes from 2017 through 2019 with the computed trend for 2020-2021. As a result, the target measures Minnesota's progress toward the SHSP goal.
    Target equal to 2021.
    Based on the recent outcomes, it was not considered feasible to maintain the prior method marking progress toward the 2025 SHSP goal. This would require a 34% annual reduction in serious injuries for 2 years; from 2017-2021 there was a 2% annual reduction in traffic fatalities statewide. Minnesota does not find it acceptable set safety targets greater than prior years: as such the 2023 Target is set equal to the 2022 Target. To achieve this target, it is estimated that serious injuries must be reduced by 19% annually for 2 years.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2020-2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 1.96 3.37 3.08 2.75 2.50 3.04 3.01
    5-Year Average 2.732 2.948 2.876
    Target (5-Year Average) 2.606 2.470 2.470
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    The number of serious injuries used the outcomes from 2017-2019 and the computed 2020-2021 trend; a conservative estimate of +0.5% vehicle miles traveled was used for the annual rates.
    Progression from 2019 to SHSP goal.
    Based on the recent outcomes, it was not considered feasible to maintain the prior method marking progress toward the 2025 SHSP goal. This would require a 43% annual reduction in serious injury rate for 2 years; from 2017-2021 there was a 1% annual reduction in statewide serious injury rate. Minnesota does not find it acceptable set safety targets greater than prior years: as such the 2023 Target is set equal to the 2022 Target. To achieve this target, it is estimated that the statewide serious injury rate must be reduced by 22% annually for 2 years.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2020-2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 209 358 324 270 262 258 284
    5-Year Average 284.6 294.4 279.6
    Target (5-Year Average) 281.2 258.4 258.4
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    The derived fatality linear trends for 2020-2021 were scaled by the percent of fatalities involving a non-motorist for the prior five years (i.e. 2014-2018). Similarly, the serious injury trends for 2020-2021 were scaled by the percent of serious injuries involving a non-motorist. The target measures Minnesota's progress toward the SHSP goal if the prevalence of non-motorists in traffic fatalities and serious injuries remains unchanged.
    Progression from 2019 to SHSP goal.
    Based on the recent outcomes, it was not considered feasible to maintain the prior method marking progress toward the 2025 SHSP goal (i.e., scaled by the involvement of bicyclists and pedestrians killed or seriously injured). This would require a 25% annual reduction in bicyclists and pedestrians killed or seriously injured for 2 years; from 2017-2021 there was a 3% annual reduction. Minnesota does not find it acceptable set safety targets greater than prior years: as such the 2023 Target is set equal to the 2022 Target. To achieve this target, it is estimated that bicyclists and pedestrians killed or seriously injured statewide must be reduced by 10% annually for 2 years.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2020-2022 Minnesota HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

Minnesota recognized that by using simple projections from prior years, the targets may increase: this was not acceptable. A new methodology for establishing safety targets was necessary to track progress towards our SHSP goals. This method utilizes quality data from the State Crash Database and current outcomes from 2019 to establish meaningful targets.

2023 Comments:

While Minnesota supports setting aspirational safety targets, these must be achievable. Given the outcomes of 2020 and 2021, a large sustained reduction would be necessary in all measures to maintain our prior methodology. Given the short timeframe on these targets--and limited ability to make programmatic changes in this period--Minnesota supports setting all 2023 Targets equal to 2022 Targets. This will require innovative thinking and sustained support to achieve these goals.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Minnesota 2021 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2017-2021 Target 2017-2021 Actual 2015-2019 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 352.4 397.0 381.2 No No No
Rate of Fatalities 0.582 0.688 0.642 No No
Number of Serious Injuries 1,579.8 1,664.0 1,629.6 No No
Rate of Serious Injuries 2.606 2.876 2.732 No No
Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries 281.2 279.6 284.6 Yes N/A

Updated: 05/18/2023
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