Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Oklahoma

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	645	687	657	655	640	653	762
  5-Year Average					656.8	658.4	673.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							681.0	656.0	684.0

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Oklahoma is on track for meeting the SHSP goal of 687 fatalities by 2023.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Currently there is an upward trend in fatalities and Oklahoma is therefore unlikely to meet the target of 656 fatalities for 2022.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. In order to meet this goal, work must be done to reduce the current upward trend in fatalities in Oklahoma.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.35	1.40	1.33	1.44	1.43	1.55	1.70
  5-Year Average					1.390	1.430	1.490
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.420	1.440	1.590

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. The fatality rate in Oklahoma is on a mostly flat/slightly downward trend. The current rate of decrease is not enough to meet the SHSP goal of a fatality rate of 1.34 by 2023. However, there may be a significant change to the trajectory of the trend line due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. The fatality rate in Oklahoma is on an increasing trend, and Oklahoma is therefore unlikely to meet the fatality rate target of 1.44 for 2022. Furthermore, ODOT may change the method of determining AADT in the future, which will cause an apparent increase in the fatality rate.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Barring any additional changes to Oklahoma's AADT methodologies, the previous changes to VMT are finally being captured in existing data and the ARIMA model, so this target is likely to be met for the first time in several years.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	2,826	2,788	2,645	2,452	2,225	2,061	1,962
  5-Year Average					2,587.2	2,434.2	2,269.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							2,462.0	2,200.0	2,070.0

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Serious injuries in Oklahoma are on a downward trend, but the current rate of decrease is not enough to meet the SHSP goal of 2013 serious injuries by 2023. However, there may be a significant change to the trajectory of the trend line due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Serious injuries in Oklahoma are on a downward trend, and Oklahoma may meet the target of 2200 serious injuries for 2022.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. By maintaining the current downward trend of serious injuries we will be likely to meet this goal.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	5.92	5.69	5.35	5.40	4.98	4.91	4.38
  5-Year Average					5.468	5.266	5.004
  Target (5-Year Average)							5.290	4.790	4.790

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. The serious injury rate in Oklahoma is on a downward trend, but not enough to meet the SHSP goal of 4.90 by 2023. However, there may be a significant change to the trajectory of the trend line due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. The serious injury rate in Oklahoma is currently on a downward trend, and Oklahoma may meet the serious injury rate target of 4.79 for 2022. ODOT may change the method of determining AADT in the future, which will cause an apparent increase in the serious injury rate.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. With the downward trend in serious injuries and barring any additional changes to Oklahoma's AADT methodologies, the previous changes to VMT are finally being captured in existing data and the ARIMA model, so this target is likely to continue to met.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	289	308	287	246	290	282	287
  5-Year Average					284.0	282.6	278.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							251.0	313.0	293.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Oklahoma is already meeting the non-motorized fatality and serious injury goal of 338 injuries by 2023.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Oklahoma should be able to meet to meet the non-motorized fatality and serious injury target of 313 for 2022.

  This target was set by the Oklahoma Highway Safety Office using an ARIMA model. Oklahoma should be able to meet the non-motorized fatality and serious injury target

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Oklahoma HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

N/A

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.