State Highway Safety Report (2022)  Puerto Rico
The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per 23 CFR 490.209(a), States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be datadriven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.
A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.
The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.
More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safetyperformancemanagementsafetypmoverview.
All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2022 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.
Number of Fatalities



Number of Fatalities 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual 279 290 308 289 242 337 271 5Year Average 281.6 293.2 289.4 Target (5Year Average) 284.8 284.8 284.8 
Basis for Number of Fatalities Target
The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities for 2022, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). A new step to analyze the traffic fatalities was implemented. The new step was to perform a regression analysis using the total of traffic fatalities per year versus the traffic fatalities per month per year and find what coefficients had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software. The main reason to take this additional step was to have a more accurate prediction of the traffic fatalities in 2021 and 2022 due to several outliers in the data from 2020. This analysis has the following parameters: Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 87.9 + 2.532*February fatalities + 2.181*March fatalities + 1.463*July fatalities + 0.757*October fatalities + 1.108*November fatalities + 0.958*December fatalities The PValue for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence. The PValues for each parameter were: February = 0.000; March = 0.000; July = 0.002; October = 0.036; November = 0.008; and December = 0.007. The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; α to enter = 0.15 and α to remove = 0.15. It was used a 95% of confidence. RSquare = 98.99% After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the number of fatalities for 2021 is 306 and for 2022 is 279. This represents a reduction of 3.5% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5year moving average safety performance target is 284.8 for 2021. For the FY 2022, the Puerto Rico HSIP Implementation Plan is aiming to be more cautious in the identification and selection of project locations.The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2021. To analyze which possible outcomes and behaviors of the safety performance targets, specifically the number of fatalities for 2023, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power).
To forecast the reported value, it was performed a regression analysis using the total traffic fatalities per year versus the total traffic fatalities per month per year. The objective was to find which coefficients (i.e., months) had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data (i.e., 20082021) and taking into consideration the regressiontothemean behavior since the COVID19 pandemic. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software.
This analysis has the following parameters:
Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 25.97  (0.71*January fatalities) + (0.76*February fatalities) + (2.31*March fatalities) + (1.57*April fatalities) + (2.95*June fatalities) +
(2.81*July fatalities) + (0.91*October fatalities) + (0.70*November fatalities)
The PValue for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence.
The PValues for each parameter were: January = 0.012; February = 0.004; March = 0.000; April = 0.000; June = 0.000; July = 0.000; October = 0.001; and November = 0.005
The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; & alpha; to enter = 0.15 and & alpha; to remove = 0.15.
It was used a 95% of confidence.
RSquare = 99.79%
After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the annual number of fatalities for 2022 is 289 and for 2023 is 286. Thus, the mathematical 5year moving average safety performance target is 288.6 for 2023. Since this value represents an increase in the safety target, the SHSP and PRTSC decided to maintain the same value reported in the 2021 Annual Report, that is 284.8.The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database from 2008 to 2022. To analyze which outcomes best explained the behavior of the number of fatalities, a multiple regression analysis was performed using the total fatalities per year versus the total fatalities per month per year. The objective was to find which coefficients had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data (i.e., 20082022) and taking into consideration the regressiontothemean behavior, especially after the COVID19 pandemic and hurricane Maria aftermath.
These analyses suggest a possible 5yr moving average reduction of 1.21% from 2022 (289.4) to 2024 (285.9). But, since this value represents an increase in the safety performance target for 2023, it was decided to maintain the same value reported in the 2021 and 2022 Annual Report, that is 284.8.

Data Sources:
Fatalities: 20162021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
Targets: 20212023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)



Fatality Rate
(per 100 million VMT)2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual 1.92 1.93 2.05 1.96 1.76 2.43 1.82 5Year Average 1.924 2.026 2.004 Target (5Year Average) 1.949 1.968 1.938 
Basis for Fatality Rate Target
The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2020 for the Puerto Rico FARS Database and for the VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2021 and 2022, using several trend line options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a logarithmic trend line of a logarithmic trend line of y=2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 fatality rate was forecasted to 2.119 and 1.933, respectively. This represents a reduction of 1.8% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5year moving average safety performance target is 1.949 for 2022.The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2021 for both the Puerto Rico FARS Database and VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2022 and 2023, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a linear trendline for the VMT values of y = 208,903.79 x + 42,195,399.24, with a R2 = 9.0%, the 2023 annual VMT was set to 145.63.
In summary, the vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2016 until 2020, at a rate of less than 1% per year. But, in 2021 the preliminary VMT increased considerably; 12.9% compared to 2020 and 1.8% compared to 2016. In the following table it is shown the behavior of the vehicle miles driven and the final VMT values.
Year
Vehicle Miles Driven (Daily Values)
VMT
Fatalities
Fatality Rate
2013
41,675,718.80
152.12
344
2.261
2014
39,902,536.00
145.64
304
2.087
2015
44,405,483.75
162.08
310
1.913
2016
41,730,947.90
152.32
279
1.832
2017
41,124,596.70
150.10
290
1.932
2018
41,151,002.30
150.20
308
2.051
2019
40,301,433.00
147.10
289
1.965
2020
37,600,514.10
137.24
242**
1.763**
2021
42,465,690.20*
155.00
337**
2.174**
*Preliminary value provided by PRHTA. **Identified outliers
In the last year annual report (2021) it was submitted a 5yr MA fatality rate of 1.949. This value included the unprecedented drop in fatalities due to the impact of the COVID19 pandemic in Puerto Rico in 2020. For this year annual report (2022), the results of the forecast were used that included data up to 2021, which includes an unprecedented rise of 85 fatalities from one year to another: 242 fatalities in 2020 and 327 fatalities in 2021. Also, the forecast included a preliminary value of the vehicle miles driven (daily value) for 2021, that was identified to be an outlier. Thus, using the 2023 VMT forecast of 145.63, the 2022 and 2023 annual fatality rate was forecasted to 1.972 and 1.965, respectively. This represents a decrease of 9.6% from 2021 to 2023. Therefore, the 5yr MA fatality rate forecast for 2023 was set to be 1.968. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2022 for the Puerto Rico FARS Database and 2013 to 2021 for the VMT.
The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2023 and 2024, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a logarithmic trendline for the VMT values of y = 646,210.29ln(x) + 42,070,066.16, with a R2 = 6.0%, the 2024 annual VMT was set to 147.69 and the 2024 annual fatality rate was forecasted to 1.893. Therefore, the 5yr MA fatality rate forecast for 2024 was set to be 1.938. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.

Data Sources:
Fatalities: 20162021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
VMT: 20162022 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM2 Table
Targets: 20212023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Number of Serious Injuries



Number of Serious Injuries 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual 613 572 492 553 523 645 658 5Year Average 550.6 557.0 574.2 Target (5Year Average) 4,883.4 554.6 601.9 
Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target
The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for the ACAA Database. The Serious Injury forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5year moving average. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2  987.85x + 8646.3 serious injuries, the 2022 Serious Injury was forecasted to 5,586. Thus, the 5year moving average safety performance target for 2022 is 4,883.4.In this 2022 Annual Report, the SHSP made the decision to change the source of the performance measure of people injured transported by ambulance (ACAA Database) with the serious injuries as classified on the KABCO scale, this in order to meet the requirements of the HSIP. Therefore, from now on the number of serious injuries will be reported using the letter A of the KABCO severity scale.
Since 2019, Puerto Rico has available the severity of all crashes according to the KABCO severity scale. Therefore, all KABCO crash data from 2019 to 2021 was analyzed and found that serious visible injury crashes account for about 0.401525% of the total crashes per year. The following table shows a summary of the data that was analyzed.
Year
Total Crashes
People transported by ambulance
(ACAA Data)
Traffic crashes categorized according to the KABCO scale
Serious visible injuries
(Letter A according to KABCO scale)
Serious visible injuries
(Letter A according to KABCO scale adjusted)
2014
145,202
4,040
0.0%
Not available
583
2015
147,629
4,199
0.0%
Not available
593
2016
150,743
4,267
0.0%
Not available
605
2017
140,467
3,024
0.0%
Not available
564
2018
120,852
4,173
3.2%
Not available
485
2019
135,835
5,377
93.8%
391
545
2020
125,824
4,106
97.6%
529
505
2021
157,898
3,399
99.0%
634
634
The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Road Safety Observatory considering the years 2014 through 2021. This database is provided by the Puerto Rico Traffic Safety Commission. After having selected a linear trendline of y = 4.0388x + 582.54, the 2023 annual number of serious injuries is forecasted to 542. Thus, the 2023 5year moving average for the number of serious injuries safety performance target is 554.6.The database used to forecast the number of serious injuries was the Puerto Rico Road Safety Observatory from 2020 to 2022. To analyze the 5year rolling average, the years from 2014 to 2019 were estimated comparing and averaging the actual serious injuries for 2020, 2021, and 2022 versus the total crashes for each year. It was found that, on average, the serious injuries crashes account for 0.407% of the total crashes per year.
For the past three (3) years there has been, on average, an increase of 30% in the number of serious injuries versus the 2019 data. This suggests an increase in the total number of crashes every year, better accuracy in the data collection process from the police report, and better vehicle protection systems. For this reason, the safety trend for serious injuries has been difficult to accurately calculate. Therefore, the Puerto Rico HSIP decided to increase the 5year moving average to 601.9 for 2024 following the latest results of the Puerto Rico Road Safety Observatory; this is an increase of 8.5% to be realistic with expectations and current trends.

Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 20212023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)



Rate of Serious Injuries
(per 100 million VMT)2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual 4.21 3.81 3.28 3.76 3.80 4.65 4.41 5Year Average 3.772 3.860 3.980 Target (5Year Average) 33.465 3.787 4.084 
Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target
The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the serious injuries rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2011 to 2020, for the ACAA Database, and from 2013 to 2020, for the VMT, as shown in Figure 11. The Serious Injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5year moving average, and VMT for 2022. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2022 Serious Injury rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 Serious Injury rate was forecasted to 35.03 and 38.70, respectively. Thus, the 5year moving average safety performance target is 33.465 for 2022.The databases used to forecast the serious injury rate were from the Road Safety Observatory provided by the PRTSC and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2021 for both serious injuries crashes and VMT. The serious injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2022 and 2023, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a linear trendline of y = 208,903.79 x + 42,195,399.24 with a R2 = 9.0% for the VMT, the 2022 and 2023 annual serious injury rate was forecasted to 3.731 and 3.723, respectively. Thus, the 2023 5year moving average safety performance target for the serious injury rate is 3.787.
In summary, the vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2016 until 2020, at a rate of less than 1% per year. But, in 2021 the preliminary VMT increased considerably; 12.9% compared to 2020 and 1.8% compared to 2016. In the following table it is shown the behavior of the daily vehicle miles driven and the final VMT values related to the serious injuries and serious injury rate.
Year
Vehicle Miles Driven (Daily Values)
VMT
Serious Injuries
Serious Injury Rate
2013
41,675,718.80
152.12
Not Available
Not Available
2014
39,902,536.00
145.64
583
4.003
2015
44,405,483.75
162.08
593
3.657
2016
41,730,947.90
152.32
605
3.974
2017
41,124,596.70
150.10
564
3.757
2018
41,151,002.30
150.20
485
3.231
2019
40,301,433.00
147.10
545
3.708
2020
37,600,514.10
137.24
505
3.681
2021
42,465,690.20*
155.00
634
4.090
*Preliminary value provided by PRHTA.The databases used to forecast the serious injury rate were from the Road Safety Observatory provided by the PRTSC and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2022 for serious injuries crashes and from 2013 to 2021 for VMT.
The serious injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2023 and 2024, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a logarithmic trendline for the VMT values of y = 646,210.29ln(x) + 42,070,066.16, with a R2 = 6.0%, the 2024 annual VMT was set to 147.69 and the 2024 annual serious injury rate was forecasted to 4.006. Therefore, the 5yr MA serious injury rate forecast for 2024 was set to be 4.084. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.

Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
VMT: 20162022 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM2 Table
Targets: 20212023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Number of NonMotorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries



Number of NonMotorized Fatalities
and Serious Injuries2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Annual 211 212 215 201 195 197 201 5Year Average 206.8 204.0 201.8 Target (5Year Average) 672.2 191.4 194.5 
Basis for Number of NonMotorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target
The databases used to forecast the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for both databases. For the number of fatalities, a linear regression was chosen (this trendline is detailed at the beginning of this section) and, for the number of serious injuries, a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2  987.85x + 8646.3 was selected. Then, using those forecasts (trendlines), it was analyzed the average annual distribution between the nonmotorized serious injuries; founding that, in average, they represent a 12% of the total serious injuries. Thus, after having analyzed all the annual distribution and overall behavior, the 2021 and 2022 forecast for the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries are set to 710 and 772, respectively. The 2022 forecast for the 5year moving average nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries is 672.2.The databases used to forecast the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the Road Safety Observatory, respectively. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2021, for fatalities; and from 2014 to 2021, for serious injuries.
As explained in the section on serious injuries, in this 2022 Annual Report, injured people transported by ambulance are replaced by serious injuries as classified on the KABCO scale. Thus, the nonmotorized serious injuries from 2019 to 2021 were analyzed and found that these crashes account for about 0.06077% (for pedestrians) and 0.01244% (for cyclists) of the total crashes per year.
For the number of nonmotorized fatalities, a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = 2.211x + 116.73; R2 = 0.3542) and cyclists (y = 0.3626x + 14.077; R2 = 0.269). For the number of nonmotorized serious injuries also a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = 1.3577x + 90.783; R2 = 0.076) and cyclists (y = 0.1308x + 18.051; R2 = 0.0534). After having forecasted the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries, the 2022 and 2023 annual values are 188 and 184, respectively. Thus, the 2023 5yr moving average for the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries is 191.4.The databases used to forecast the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the Road Safety Observatory, respectively. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2022, for fatalities; and from 2014 to 2022, for serious injuries.
For the number of nonmotorized fatalities, a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = 2.625x + 118.93; R2 = 0.4632) and cyclists (y = 0.3036x + 13.762; R2 = 0.2318). For the number of nonmotorized serious injuries also a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = 0.1333x + 85.111; R2 = 0.001) and cyclists (y = 0.2667x + 17.444; R2 = 0.0716). After having forecasted the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries, the 2024 annual value is 190. Thus, the 2024 5yr moving average for the nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries is 194.5.

Data Sources:
Fatalities: 20162021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
Serious Injuries: 2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 20212023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Additional Comments
N/A
Safety Performance Target Assessment
PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own Statespecific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.
Performance Measure  20182022 Target  20182022 Actual  20162020 Baseline  Met Target?  Better Than Baseline?  Met or Made Significant Progress? 

Number of Fatalities  284.8  289.4  281.6  No  No  No 
Rate of Fatalities  1.949  2.004  1.924  No  No  
Number of Serious Injuries  4,883.4  574.2  550.6  Yes  N/A  
Rate of Serious Injuries  33.465  3.980  3.772  Yes  N/A  
Number of nonmotorized fatalities and serious injuries  672.2  201.8  206.8  Yes  N/A 