State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Puerto Rico
The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.
A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.
The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.
More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.
All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.
Number of Fatalities
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Number of Fatalities 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 310 279 290 308 289 242 337 5-Year Average 295.2 281.6 293.2 Target (5-Year Average) 288.2 284.8 284.8 -
Basis for Number of Fatalities Target
The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS. The years considered during the analysis were from 2012 to 2019. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities for 2021, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-37.41ln(x)+360.84, with an R2=79.19%, the forecast of the number of fatalities for 2021 is 275. This represents a reduction of 10.71% from 2018 to 2021. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 288.2 for 2021.The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities for 2022, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). A new step to analyze the traffic fatalities was implemented. The new step was to perform a regression analysis using the total of traffic fatalities per year versus the traffic fatalities per month per year and find what coefficients had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software. The main reason to take this additional step was to have a more accurate prediction of the traffic fatalities in 2021 and 2022 due to several outliers in the data from 2020. This analysis has the following parameters: Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 87.9 + 2.532*February fatalities + 2.181*March fatalities + 1.463*July fatalities + 0.757*October fatalities + 1.108*November fatalities + 0.958*December fatalities The P-Value for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence. The P-Values for each parameter were: February = 0.000; March = 0.000; July = 0.002; October = 0.036; November = 0.008; and December = 0.007. The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; α to enter = 0.15 and α to remove = 0.15. It was used a 95% of confidence. R-Square = 98.99% After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the number of fatalities for 2021 is 306 and for 2022 is 279. This represents a reduction of 3.5% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 284.8 for 2021. For the FY 2022, the Puerto Rico HSIP Implementation Plan is aiming to be more cautious in the identification and selection of project locations.The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2021. To analyze which possible outcomes and behaviors of the safety performance targets, specifically the number of fatalities for 2023, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power).
To forecast the reported value, it was performed a regression analysis using the total traffic fatalities per year versus the total traffic fatalities per month per year. The objective was to find which coefficients (i.e., months) had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data (i.e., 2008-2021) and taking into consideration the regression-to-the-mean behavior since the COVID-19 pandemic. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software.
This analysis has the following parameters:
Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 25.97 - (0.71*January fatalities) + (0.76*February fatalities) + (2.31*March fatalities) + (1.57*April fatalities) + (2.95*June fatalities) +
(2.81*July fatalities) + (0.91*October fatalities) + (0.70*November fatalities)
The P-Value for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence.
The P-Values for each parameter were: January = 0.012; February = 0.004; March = 0.000; April = 0.000; June = 0.000; July = 0.000; October = 0.001; and November = 0.005
The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; & alpha; to enter = 0.15 and & alpha; to remove = 0.15.
It was used a 95% of confidence.
R-Square = 99.79%
After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the annual number of fatalities for 2022 is 289 and for 2023 is 286. Thus, the mathematical 5-year moving average safety performance target is 288.6 for 2023. Since this value represents an increase in the safety target, the SHSP and PRTSC decided to maintain the same value reported in the 2021 Annual Report, that is 284.8.
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Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
Targets: 2020-2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)
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Fatality Rate
(per 100 million VMT)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 2.13 1.92 1.93 2.05 1.96 1.76 2.43 5-Year Average 1.998 1.924 2.026 Target (5-Year Average) 1.915 1.949 1.968 -
Basis for Fatality Rate Target
The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Hundred Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (HMVMT) reported by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority. The years considered during the analysis were from 2012 to 2019, for the Puerto Rico FARS Database, and from 2008 to 2019, for the HMVMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of fatalities and HMVMT for 2021. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2021 fatality rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-37.41ln(x)+360.84, with a R2=79.19% for the number of fatalities, a logarithmic trendline of y=-22.87ln(x)+203.79, with a R2=75.5% for the HMVMT, the 2021 fatality rate was forecasted to 1.808. This represents a reduction of 11.84% from 2018 to 2021. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 1.915 for 2021.The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2020 for the Puerto Rico FARS Database and for the VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2021 and 2022, using several trend line options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a logarithmic trend line of a logarithmic trend line of y=-2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 fatality rate was forecasted to 2.119 and 1.933, respectively. This represents a reduction of 1.8% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 1.949 for 2022.The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2021 for both the Puerto Rico FARS Database and VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2022 and 2023, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a linear trendline for the VMT values of y = -208,903.79 x + 42,195,399.24, with a R2 = 9.0%, the 2023 annual VMT was set to 145.63.
In summary, the vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2016 until 2020, at a rate of less than 1% per year. But, in 2021 the preliminary VMT increased considerably; 12.9% compared to 2020 and 1.8% compared to 2016. In the following table it is shown the behavior of the vehicle miles driven and the final VMT values.
Year
Vehicle Miles Driven (Daily Values)
VMT
Fatalities
Fatality Rate
2013
41,675,718.80
152.12
344
2.261
2014
39,902,536.00
145.64
304
2.087
2015
44,405,483.75
162.08
310
1.913
2016
41,730,947.90
152.32
279
1.832
2017
41,124,596.70
150.10
290
1.932
2018
41,151,002.30
150.20
308
2.051
2019
40,301,433.00
147.10
289
1.965
2020
37,600,514.10
137.24
242**
1.763**
2021
42,465,690.20*
155.00
337**
2.174**
*Preliminary value provided by PRHTA. **Identified outliers
In the last year annual report (2021) it was submitted a 5-yr MA fatality rate of 1.949. This value included the unprecedented drop in fatalities due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Puerto Rico in 2020. For this year annual report (2022), the results of the forecast were used that included data up to 2021, which includes an unprecedented rise of 85 fatalities from one year to another: 242 fatalities in 2020 and 327 fatalities in 2021. Also, the forecast included a preliminary value of the vehicle miles driven (daily value) for 2021, that was identified to be an outlier. Thus, using the 2023 VMT forecast of 145.63, the 2022 and 2023 annual fatality rate was forecasted to 1.972 and 1.965, respectively. This represents a decrease of 9.6% from 2021 to 2023. Therefore, the 5-yr MA fatality rate forecast for 2023 was set to be 1.968. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.
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Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
Targets: 2020-2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Number of Serious Injuries
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Number of Serious Injuries 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 593 605 564 485 545 505 634 5-Year Average 558.4 540.8 546.6 Target (5-Year Average) 4,688.6 4,883.4 554.6 -
Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target
The database used to forecast the number of serious injuries was the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2007 to 2019. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of serious injuries, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2021 serious injuries. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 59.37x2 - 1165.2x + 9773.9, with an R2=86.47%, the forecast of the number of serious injuries for 2021 is 5,655. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 4,688.55 for 2021.The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for the ACAA Database. The Serious Injury forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2 - 987.85x + 8646.3 serious injuries, the 2022 Serious Injury was forecasted to 5,586. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target for 2022 is 4,883.4.In this 2022 Annual Report, the SHSP made the decision to change the source of the performance measure of people injured transported by ambulance (ACAA Database) with the serious injuries as classified on the KABCO scale, this in order to meet the requirements of the HSIP. Therefore, from now on the number of serious injuries will be reported using the letter A of the KABCO severity scale.
Since 2019, Puerto Rico has available the severity of all crashes according to the KABCO severity scale. Therefore, all KABCO crash data from 2019 to 2021 was analyzed and found that serious visible injury crashes account for about 0.401525% of the total crashes per year. The following table shows a summary of the data that was analyzed.
Year
Total Crashes
People transported by ambulance
(ACAA Data)
Traffic crashes categorized according to the KABCO scale
Serious visible injuries
(Letter A according to KABCO scale)
Serious visible injuries
(Letter A according to KABCO scale adjusted)
2014
145,202
4,040
0.0%
Not available
583
2015
147,629
4,199
0.0%
Not available
593
2016
150,743
4,267
0.0%
Not available
605
2017
140,467
3,024
0.0%
Not available
564
2018
120,852
4,173
3.2%
Not available
485
2019
135,835
5,377
93.8%
391
545
2020
125,824
4,106
97.6%
529
505
2021
157,898
3,399
99.0%
634
634
The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Road Safety Observatory considering the years 2014 through 2021. This database is provided by the Puerto Rico Traffic Safety Commission. After having selected a linear trendline of y = -4.0388x + 582.54, the 2023 annual number of serious injuries is forecasted to 542. Thus, the 2023 5-year moving average for the number of serious injuries safety performance target is 554.6.
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Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 2020-2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)
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Rate of Serious Injuries
(per 100 million VMT)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 4.07 4.15 3.76 3.23 3.70 3.67 4.57 5-Year Average 3.782 3.702 3.786 Target (5-Year Average) 28.368 33.465 3.787 -
Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target
The databases used to forecast the serious injuries rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Hundred Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (HMVMT) reported by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority. The years considered during the analysis were from 2007 to 2019, for the ACAA Database, and from 2008 to 2019, for the HMVMT. The Serious Injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average, and HMVMT for 2021. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2021 Serious Injury rate. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 59.692x2 - 984.49x + 8091.3 with an R² = 0.9848 for the 5-yr moving average of serious injuries, a logarithmic trendline of y=-22.87ln(x)+203.79, with a R2=75.5% for the HMVMT, the 2021 Serious Injury rate was forecasted to 28.298. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 28.368 for 2021.The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the serious injuries rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2011 to 2020, for the ACAA Database, and from 2013 to 2020, for the VMT, as shown in Figure 11. The Serious Injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average, and VMT for 2022. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2022 Serious Injury rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 Serious Injury rate was forecasted to 35.03 and 38.70, respectively. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 33.465 for 2022.The databases used to forecast the serious injury rate were from the Road Safety Observatory provided by the PRTSC and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2021 for both serious injuries crashes and VMT. The serious injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2022 and 2023, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a linear trendline of y = -208,903.79 x + 42,195,399.24 with a R2 = 9.0% for the VMT, the 2022 and 2023 annual serious injury rate was forecasted to 3.731 and 3.723, respectively. Thus, the 2023 5-year moving average safety performance target for the serious injury rate is 3.787.
In summary, the vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2016 until 2020, at a rate of less than 1% per year. But, in 2021 the preliminary VMT increased considerably; 12.9% compared to 2020 and 1.8% compared to 2016. In the following table it is shown the behavior of the daily vehicle miles driven and the final VMT values related to the serious injuries and serious injury rate.
Year
Vehicle Miles Driven (Daily Values)
VMT
Serious Injuries
Serious Injury Rate
2013
41,675,718.80
152.12
Not Available
Not Available
2014
39,902,536.00
145.64
583
4.003
2015
44,405,483.75
162.08
593
3.657
2016
41,730,947.90
152.32
605
3.974
2017
41,124,596.70
150.10
564
3.757
2018
41,151,002.30
150.20
485
3.231
2019
40,301,433.00
147.10
545
3.708
2020
37,600,514.10
137.24
505
3.681
2021
42,465,690.20*
155.00
634
4.090
*Preliminary value provided by PRHTA.
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Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
Targets: 2020-2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries
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Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
and Serious Injuries2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 225 210 213 214 201 195 195 5-Year Average 212.6 206.6 203.6 Target (5-Year Average) 518.2 672.2 191.4 -
Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target
The 5-year moving average of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries was determined combining the forecasting numbers of annual pedestrian fatalities (86), bicyclist fatalities (8), and non-motorized serious injuries (428). Having forecasting 2020 and 2021 annual numbers for each of these categories (as described herein), PRHTA estimated a 5-year moving average of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries of 518.2. This, since the best statistical regressions were found individually and not analyzing the combined data. The database used to forecast the number of pedestrian fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-6.389ln(x)+109.72, with an R2= 69.94%, the 2021 forecast for the 5-year moving average of pedestrian fatalities is 95.0. This represents a reduction of 4.8% from 2018 to 2021. The database used to forecast the number of bicyclists’ fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. After selecting a logarithmic trendline of y=-1.828ln(x)+13.973, with an R2 = 87.83%, the 2021 forecast for the 5-year moving average of cyclist fatalities is 9.8. This represents a reduction of 4.3% from 2018 to 2021. In the other hand, the number of pedestrian and bicyclist serious injuries (SI) was analyzed using the 2012-2019 ACAA transported by ambulance data, where a polynomial (2nd grade) regression was selected (y= 5.4221x2 - 91.736x + 777.68, R² = 96.41%). The 2021 forecast for the 5-year moving average of pedestrian and bicyclists’ serious injuries is 401.1.The databases used to forecast the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for both databases. For the number of fatalities, a linear regression was chosen (this trendline is detailed at the beginning of this section) and, for the number of serious injuries, a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2 - 987.85x + 8646.3 was selected. Then, using those forecasts (trendlines), it was analyzed the average annual distribution between the non-motorized serious injuries; founding that, in average, they represent a 12% of the total serious injuries. Thus, after having analyzed all the annual distribution and overall behavior, the 2021 and 2022 forecast for the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries are set to 710 and 772, respectively. The 2022 forecast for the 5-year moving average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 672.2.The databases used to forecast the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the Road Safety Observatory, respectively. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2021, for fatalities; and from 2014 to 2021, for serious injuries.
As explained in the section on serious injuries, in this 2022 Annual Report, injured people transported by ambulance are replaced by serious injuries as classified on the KABCO scale. Thus, the non-motorized serious injuries from 2019 to 2021 were analyzed and found that these crashes account for about 0.06077% (for pedestrians) and 0.01244% (for cyclists) of the total crashes per year.
For the number of non-motorized fatalities, a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = -2.211x + 116.73; R2 = 0.3542) and cyclists (y = -0.3626x + 14.077; R2 = 0.269). For the number of non-motorized serious injuries also a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = -1.3577x + 90.783; R2 = 0.076) and cyclists (y = -0.1308x + 18.051; R2 = 0.0534). After having forecasted the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries, the 2022 and 2023 annual values are 188 and 184, respectively. Thus, the 2023 5-yr moving average for the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 191.4.
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Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
Serious Injuries: 2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 2020-2022 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports
Additional Comments
N/A
Safety Performance Target Assessment
PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.
| Performance Measure | 2017-2021 Target | 2017-2021 Actual | 2015-2019 Baseline | Met Target? | Better Than Baseline? | Met or Made Significant Progress? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Fatalities | 288.2 | 293.2 | 295.2 | No | Yes | Yes |
| Rate of Fatalities | 1.915 | 2.026 | 1.998 | No | No | |
| Number of Serious Injuries | 4,688.6 | 546.6 | 558.4 | Yes | N/A | |
| Rate of Serious Injuries | 28.368 | 3.786 | 3.782 | Yes | N/A | |
| Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries | 518.2 | 203.6 | 212.6 | Yes | N/A |