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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2020) - Puerto Rico

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The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/spm/.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2020 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 304 310 279 290 308 289 242
    5-Year Average 298.2 295.2 281.6
    Target (5-Year Average) 292.0 288.2 284.8
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2018. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2020 fatalities. In addition, because the next year (2020) is an election year in Puerto Rico, the fatality forecast must take into consideration an analysis of historical data, with emphasis on the behavior in the past election events. The analysis of the historical data from 1975 until 2018, shows that in every election year Puerto Rico experience an average increase of 7 traffic fatalities. After having selected a power trendline of y = 455x^ (-0.174), with an R2=86.2%, and take into consideration the historical data analysis, the forecast for the 2020 5-year moving average safety performance target is 292.0.
    The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS. The years considered during the analysis were from 2012 to 2019. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities for 2021, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-37.41ln(x)+360.84, with an R2=79.19%, the forecast of the number of fatalities for 2021 is 275. This represents a reduction of 10.71% from 2018 to 2021. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 288.2 for 2021.
    The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities for 2022, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). A new step to analyze the traffic fatalities was implemented. The new step was to perform a regression analysis using the total of traffic fatalities per year versus the traffic fatalities per month per year and find what coefficients had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software. The main reason to take this additional step was to have a more accurate prediction of the traffic fatalities in 2021 and 2022 due to several outliers in the data from 2020. This analysis has the following parameters: Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 87.9 + 2.532*February fatalities + 2.181*March fatalities + 1.463*July fatalities + 0.757*October fatalities + 1.108*November fatalities + 0.958*December fatalities The P-Value for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence. The P-Values for each parameter were: February = 0.000; March = 0.000; July = 0.002; October = 0.036; November = 0.008; and December = 0.007. The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; α to enter = 0.15 and α to remove = 0.15. It was used a 95% of confidence. R-Square = 98.99% After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the number of fatalities for 2021 is 306 and for 2022 is 279. This represents a reduction of 3.5% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 284.8 for 2021. For the FY 2022, the Puerto Rico HSIP Implementation Plan is aiming to be more cautious in the identification and selection of project locations.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2019-2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 2.09 2.13 1.92 1.93 2.05 1.96 1.76
    5-Year Average 2.024 1.998 1.924
    Target (5-Year Average) 1.913 1.915 1.949
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    The database used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2018, for the Puerto Rico FARS Database, and from 2007 to 2017, for the FHWA VMT. The fatality rate forecast is based on the 2020 5-yr MA of fatalities and VMT. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2020 fatality rate. After having selected a power trendline of y=455x^ (-0.174), with a R2=86.2%, while the VMT forecast uses a logarithmic trendline of y =-21.59ln(x) + 207.56, with a R2=57.6%, the 5-year moving average (5-yr MA) for the 2020 fatality rate was forecasted to 1.913.
    The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Hundred Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (HMVMT) reported by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority. The years considered during the analysis were from 2012 to 2019, for the Puerto Rico FARS Database, and from 2008 to 2019, for the HMVMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of fatalities and HMVMT for 2021. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2021 fatality rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-37.41ln(x)+360.84, with a R2=79.19% for the number of fatalities, a logarithmic trendline of y=-22.87ln(x)+203.79, with a R2=75.5% for the HMVMT, the 2021 fatality rate was forecasted to 1.808. This represents a reduction of 11.84% from 2018 to 2021. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 1.915 for 2021.
    The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2020 for the Puerto Rico FARS Database and for the VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2021 and 2022, using several trend line options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a logarithmic trend line of a logarithmic trend line of y=-2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 fatality rate was forecasted to 2.119 and 1.933, respectively. This represents a reduction of 1.8% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 1.949 for 2022.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2019-2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 4,040 4,199 4,267 3,024 4,290 5,377 4,106
    5-Year Average 3,964.0 4,231.4 4,212.8
    Target (5-Year Average) 3,983.0 4,688.6 4,883.4
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    The database used to forecast the number of serious injuries was the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2007 to 2018. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of serious injuries, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2020 serious injuries. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y = -2,093 ln(x) + 8842, with an R2=87.0%, the forecast of the 2020 5-year moving average safety performance target for the number of serious injuries is 3,983.
    The database used to forecast the number of serious injuries was the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2007 to 2019. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of serious injuries, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2021 serious injuries. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 59.37x2 - 1165.2x + 9773.9, with an R2=86.47%, the forecast of the number of serious injuries for 2021 is 5,655. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 4,688.55 for 2021.
    The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for the ACAA Database. The Serious Injury forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2 - 987.85x + 8646.3 serious injuries, the 2022 Serious Injury was forecasted to 5,586. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target for 2022 is 4,883.4.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2019-2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 27.74 28.83 29.30 20.15 28.56 36.55 29.84
    5-Year Average 26.916 28.678 28.880
    Target (5-Year Average) 26.082 28.368 33.465
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    The database used to forecast the serious injury rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2018, for the ACAA Database, and from 2007 to 2017, for the FHWA VMT. The serious injury rate forecast is based on the 2020 5-yr MA for serious injuries and VMT. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2020 serious injury rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y = -2093ln(x) + 8842, with a R2=87%, while the VMT forecast uses a logarithmic trendline of y = -21.59ln(x) + 207.56, with a R2=57.6%, the 5-year moving average (5-yr MA) for the 2020 serious injury rate was forecasted to 26.082.
    The databases used to forecast the serious injuries rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Hundred Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (HMVMT) reported by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority. The years considered during the analysis were from 2007 to 2019, for the ACAA Database, and from 2008 to 2019, for the HMVMT. The Serious Injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average, and HMVMT for 2021. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e. exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2021 Serious Injury rate. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 59.692x2 - 984.49x + 8091.3 with an R² = 0.9848 for the 5-yr moving average of serious injuries, a logarithmic trendline of y=-22.87ln(x)+203.79, with a R2=75.5% for the HMVMT, the 2021 Serious Injury rate was forecasted to 28.298. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 28.368 for 2021.
    The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the serious injuries rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2011 to 2020, for the ACAA Database, and from 2013 to 2020, for the VMT, as shown in Figure 11. The Serious Injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average, and VMT for 2022. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2022 Serious Injury rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 Serious Injury rate was forecasted to 35.03 and 38.70, respectively. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 33.465 for 2022.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2019-2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Annual 586 517 469 358 544 774 565
    5-Year Average 494.8 532.4 542.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 445.0 518.2 672.2
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    The databases used to forecast the number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were the Puerto Rico FARS Database, for the fatalities, and the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym), for the serious injuries. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2018, for the Puerto Rico FARS Database, and from 2008 to 2018, for the ACAA Database. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2020 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y = -272.4 ln(x) + 1069.3, with an R2=79.7%, the 5-year moving average (5-yr MA) for the 2020 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 445.0.
    The 5-year moving average of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries was determined combining the forecasting numbers of annual pedestrian fatalities (86), bicyclist fatalities (8), and non-motorized serious injuries (428). Having forecasting 2020 and 2021 annual numbers for each of these categories (as described herein), PRHTA estimated a 5-year moving average of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries of 518.2. This, since the best statistical regressions were found individually and not analyzing the combined data. The database used to forecast the number of pedestrian fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-6.389ln(x)+109.72, with an R2= 69.94%, the 2021 forecast for the 5-year moving average of pedestrian fatalities is 95.0. This represents a reduction of 4.8% from 2018 to 2021. The database used to forecast the number of bicyclists’ fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. After selecting a logarithmic trendline of y=-1.828ln(x)+13.973, with an R2 = 87.83%, the 2021 forecast for the 5-year moving average of cyclist fatalities is 9.8. This represents a reduction of 4.3% from 2018 to 2021. In the other hand, the number of pedestrian and bicyclist serious injuries (SI) was analyzed using the 2012-2019 ACAA transported by ambulance data, where a polynomial (2nd grade) regression was selected (y= 5.4221x2 - 91.736x + 777.68, R² = 96.41%). The 2021 forecast for the 5-year moving average of pedestrian and bicyclists’ serious injuries is 401.1.
    The databases used to forecast the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for both databases. For the number of fatalities, a linear regression was chosen (this trendline is detailed at the beginning of this section) and, for the number of serious injuries, a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2 - 987.85x + 8646.3 was selected. Then, using those forecasts (trendlines), it was analyzed the average annual distribution between the non-motorized serious injuries; founding that, in average, they represent a 12% of the total serious injuries. Thus, after having analyzed all the annual distribution and overall behavior, the 2021 and 2022 forecast for the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries are set to 710 and 772, respectively. The 2022 forecast for the 5-year moving average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 672.2.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2019-2021 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

N/A

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Puerto Rico 2020 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2016-2020 Target 2016-2020 Actual 2014-2018 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 292.0 281.6 298.2 YES N/A NO
Rate of Fatalities 1.913 1.924 2.024 NO YES
Number of Serious Injuries 3,983.0 4,212.8 3,964.0 NO NO
Rate of Serious Injuries 26.082 28.880 26.916 NO NO
Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries 445.0 542.0 494.8 NO NO

Updated: 04/19/2022
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