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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2022) - Puerto Rico

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The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per 23 CFR 490.209(a), States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2022 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Annual 279 290 308 289 242 337 271
    5-Year Average 281.6 293.2 289.4
    Target (5-Year Average) 284.8 284.8 284.8
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020. To obtain the safety performance target of the number of fatalities for 2022, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). A new step to analyze the traffic fatalities was implemented. The new step was to perform a regression analysis using the total of traffic fatalities per year versus the traffic fatalities per month per year and find what coefficients had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software. The main reason to take this additional step was to have a more accurate prediction of the traffic fatalities in 2021 and 2022 due to several outliers in the data from 2020. This analysis has the following parameters: Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 87.9 + 2.532*February fatalities + 2.181*March fatalities + 1.463*July fatalities + 0.757*October fatalities + 1.108*November fatalities + 0.958*December fatalities The P-Value for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence. The P-Values for each parameter were: February = 0.000; March = 0.000; July = 0.002; October = 0.036; November = 0.008; and December = 0.007. The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; α to enter = 0.15 and α to remove = 0.15. It was used a 95% of confidence. R-Square = 98.99% After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the number of fatalities for 2021 is 306 and for 2022 is 279. This represents a reduction of 3.5% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 284.8 for 2021. For the FY 2022, the Puerto Rico HSIP Implementation Plan is aiming to be more cautious in the identification and selection of project locations.
    The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2021. To analyze which possible outcomes and behaviors of the safety performance targets, specifically the number of fatalities for 2023, several trendline options were evaluated (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power).
    To forecast the reported value, it was performed a regression analysis using the total traffic fatalities per year versus the total traffic fatalities per month per year. The objective was to find which coefficients (i.e., months) had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data (i.e., 2008-2021) and taking into consideration the regression-to-the-mean behavior since the COVID-19 pandemic. This regression analysis was performed with Minitab and Microsoft Excel software.
    This analysis has the following parameters:
    Total number of traffic fatalities: y = 25.97 - (0.71*January fatalities) + (0.76*February fatalities) + (2.31*March fatalities) + (1.57*April fatalities) + (2.95*June fatalities) +
    (2.81*July fatalities) + (0.91*October fatalities) + (0.70*November fatalities)
    The P-Value for each coefficient in the regression formula was less of 5%, inside the parameter of confidence.
    The P-Values for each parameter were: January = 0.012; February = 0.004; March = 0.000; April = 0.000; June = 0.000; July = 0.000; October = 0.001; and November = 0.005
    The regression analysis was performed using a stepwise selection of terms; & alpha; to enter = 0.15 and & alpha; to remove = 0.15.
    It was used a 95% of confidence.
    R-Square = 99.79%
    After having selected the linear regression detailed in the last paragraph, the forecast of the annual number of fatalities for 2022 is 289 and for 2023 is 286. Thus, the mathematical 5-year moving average safety performance target is 288.6 for 2023. Since this value represents an increase in the safety target, the SHSP and PRTSC decided to maintain the same value reported in the 2021 Annual Report, that is 284.8.
    The database used to forecast the number of fatalities was the Puerto Rico FARS Database from 2008 to 2022. To analyze which outcomes best explained the behavior of the number of fatalities, a multiple regression analysis was performed using the total fatalities per year versus the total fatalities per month per year. The objective was to find which coefficients had more correlation to the total traffic fatalities based on historic data (i.e., 2008-2022) and taking into consideration the regression-to-the-mean behavior, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricane Maria aftermath.
    These analyses suggest a possible 5-yr moving average reduction of 1.21% from 2022 (289.4) to 2024 (285.9). But, since this value represents an increase in the safety performance target for 2023, it was decided to maintain the same value reported in the 2021 and 2022 Annual Report, that is 284.8.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2016-2021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2021-2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Annual 1.92 1.93 2.05 1.96 1.76 2.43 1.82
    5-Year Average 1.924 2.026 2.004
    Target (5-Year Average) 1.949 1.968 1.938
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2020 for the Puerto Rico FARS Database and for the VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2021 and 2022, using several trend line options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a logarithmic trend line of a logarithmic trend line of y=-2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 fatality rate was forecasted to 2.119 and 1.933, respectively. This represents a reduction of 1.8% from 2019 to 2022. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 1.949 for 2022.
    The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2021 for both the Puerto Rico FARS Database and VMT. The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2022 and 2023, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a linear trendline for the VMT values of y = -208,903.79 x + 42,195,399.24, with a R2 = 9.0%, the 2023 annual VMT was set to 145.63.
    In summary, the vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2016 until 2020, at a rate of less than 1% per year. But, in 2021 the preliminary VMT increased considerably; 12.9% compared to 2020 and 1.8% compared to 2016. In the following table it is shown the behavior of the vehicle miles driven and the final VMT values.




    Year


    Vehicle Miles Driven (Daily Values)


    VMT


    Fatalities


    Fatality Rate




    2013


    41,675,718.80


    152.12


    344


    2.261




    2014


    39,902,536.00


    145.64


    304


    2.087




    2015


    44,405,483.75


    162.08


    310


    1.913




    2016


    41,730,947.90


    152.32


    279


    1.832




    2017


    41,124,596.70


    150.10


    290


    1.932




    2018


    41,151,002.30


    150.20


    308


    2.051




    2019


    40,301,433.00


    147.10


    289


    1.965




    2020


    37,600,514.10


    137.24


    242**


    1.763**




    2021


    42,465,690.20*


    155.00


    337**


    2.174**




    *Preliminary value provided by PRHTA. **Identified outliers
    In the last year annual report (2021) it was submitted a 5-yr MA fatality rate of 1.949. This value included the unprecedented drop in fatalities due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Puerto Rico in 2020. For this year annual report (2022), the results of the forecast were used that included data up to 2021, which includes an unprecedented rise of 85 fatalities from one year to another: 242 fatalities in 2020 and 327 fatalities in 2021. Also, the forecast included a preliminary value of the vehicle miles driven (daily value) for 2021, that was identified to be an outlier. Thus, using the 2023 VMT forecast of 145.63, the 2022 and 2023 annual fatality rate was forecasted to 1.972 and 1.965, respectively. This represents a decrease of 9.6% from 2021 to 2023. Therefore, the 5-yr MA fatality rate forecast for 2023 was set to be 1.968. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.
    The databases used to forecast the fatality rate were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2022 for the Puerto Rico FARS Database and 2013 to 2021 for the VMT.
    The fatality rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2023 and 2024, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a logarithmic trendline for the VMT values of y = -646,210.29ln(x) + 42,070,066.16, with a R2 = 6.0%, the 2024 annual VMT was set to 147.69 and the 2024 annual fatality rate was forecasted to 1.893. Therefore, the 5-yr MA fatality rate forecast for 2024 was set to be 1.938. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2016-2021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2016-2022 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2021-2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Annual 613 572 492 553 523 645 658
    5-Year Average 550.6 557.0 574.2
    Target (5-Year Average) 4,883.4 554.6 601.9
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for the ACAA Database. The Serious Injury forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average. After having selected a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2 - 987.85x + 8646.3 serious injuries, the 2022 Serious Injury was forecasted to 5,586. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target for 2022 is 4,883.4.
    In this 2022 Annual Report, the SHSP made the decision to change the source of the performance measure of people injured transported by ambulance (ACAA Database) with the serious injuries as classified on the KABCO scale, this in order to meet the requirements of the HSIP. Therefore, from now on the number of serious injuries will be reported using the letter A of the KABCO severity scale.

    Since 2019, Puerto Rico has available the severity of all crashes according to the KABCO severity scale. Therefore, all KABCO crash data from 2019 to 2021 was analyzed and found that serious visible injury crashes account for about 0.401525% of the total crashes per year. The following table shows a summary of the data that was analyzed.





    Year


    Total Crashes


    People transported by ambulance
    (ACAA Data)


    Traffic crashes categorized according to the KABCO scale


    Serious visible injuries
    (Letter A according to KABCO scale)


    Serious visible injuries
    (Letter A according to KABCO scale adjusted)




    2014


    145,202


    4,040


    0.0%


    Not available


    583




    2015


    147,629


    4,199


    0.0%


    Not available


    593




    2016


    150,743


    4,267


    0.0%


    Not available


    605




    2017


    140,467


    3,024


    0.0%


    Not available


    564




    2018


    120,852


    4,173


    3.2%


    Not available


    485




    2019


    135,835


    5,377


    93.8%


    391


    545




    2020


    125,824


    4,106


    97.6%


    529


    505




    2021


    157,898


    3,399


    99.0%


    634


    634




    The databases used to forecast the serious injuries were from the Road Safety Observatory considering the years 2014 through 2021. This database is provided by the Puerto Rico Traffic Safety Commission. After having selected a linear trendline of y = -4.0388x + 582.54, the 2023 annual number of serious injuries is forecasted to 542. Thus, the 2023 5-year moving average for the number of serious injuries safety performance target is 554.6.
    The database used to forecast the number of serious injuries was the Puerto Rico Road Safety Observatory from 2020 to 2022. To analyze the 5-year rolling average, the years from 2014 to 2019 were estimated comparing and averaging the actual serious injuries for 2020, 2021, and 2022 versus the total crashes for each year. It was found that, on average, the serious injuries crashes account for 0.407% of the total crashes per year.
    For the past three (3) years there has been, on average, an increase of 30% in the number of serious injuries versus the 2019 data. This suggests an increase in the total number of crashes every year, better accuracy in the data collection process from the police report, and better vehicle protection systems. For this reason, the safety trend for serious injuries has been difficult to accurately calculate. Therefore, the Puerto Rico HSIP decided to increase the 5-year moving average to 601.9 for 2024 following the latest results of the Puerto Rico Road Safety Observatory; this is an increase of 8.5% to be realistic with expectations and current trends.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2021-2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Annual 4.21 3.81 3.28 3.76 3.80 4.65 4.41
    5-Year Average 3.772 3.860 3.980
    Target (5-Year Average) 33.465 3.787 4.084
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    The vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2013 until 2020 (except 2015), at a rate of 1.6% per year. The PRHTA had had some challenges in the traffic data collection. But this steady decrease is currently being evaluated by the PRHTA officials and performing an aggressive traffic data collection statewide to enhance the available data. The databases used to forecast the serious injuries rate were from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym) and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2011 to 2020, for the ACAA Database, and from 2013 to 2020, for the VMT, as shown in Figure 11. The Serious Injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of people transported in ambulance from the crash scene, using the 5-year moving average, and VMT for 2022. Also, it was analyzed several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) to forecast the 2022 Serious Injury rate. After having selected a logarithmic trendline of y=-2x10^5 ln(x)+4x10^7 with a R2=3.4% for the VMT, the 2021 and 2022 Serious Injury rate was forecasted to 35.03 and 38.70, respectively. Thus, the 5-year moving average safety performance target is 33.465 for 2022.
    The databases used to forecast the serious injury rate were from the Road Safety Observatory provided by the PRTSC and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2021 for both serious injuries crashes and VMT. The serious injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2022 and 2023, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). After having selected a linear trendline of y = -208,903.79 x + 42,195,399.24 with a R2 = 9.0% for the VMT, the 2022 and 2023 annual serious injury rate was forecasted to 3.731 and 3.723, respectively. Thus, the 2023 5-year moving average safety performance target for the serious injury rate is 3.787.
    In summary, the vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in Puerto Rico has been decreasing since 2016 until 2020, at a rate of less than 1% per year. But, in 2021 the preliminary VMT increased considerably; 12.9% compared to 2020 and 1.8% compared to 2016. In the following table it is shown the behavior of the daily vehicle miles driven and the final VMT values related to the serious injuries and serious injury rate.




    Year


    Vehicle Miles Driven (Daily Values)


    VMT


    Serious Injuries


    Serious Injury Rate




    2013


    41,675,718.80


    152.12


    Not Available


    Not Available




    2014


    39,902,536.00


    145.64


    583


    4.003




    2015


    44,405,483.75


    162.08


    593


    3.657




    2016


    41,730,947.90


    152.32


    605


    3.974




    2017


    41,124,596.70


    150.10


    564


    3.757




    2018


    41,151,002.30


    150.20


    485


    3.231




    2019


    40,301,433.00


    147.10


    545


    3.708




    2020


    37,600,514.10


    137.24


    505


    3.681




    2021


    42,465,690.20*


    155.00


    634


    4.090




    *Preliminary value provided by PRHTA.
    The databases used to forecast the serious injury rate were from the Road Safety Observatory provided by the PRTSC and the values of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were reported by the PRHTA. The years considered during the analysis were from 2013 to 2022 for serious injuries crashes and from 2013 to 2021 for VMT.
    The serious injury rate forecast was based on the forecasted number of HMVMT for 2023 and 2024, using several trendline options (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power). And, after having selected a logarithmic trendline for the VMT values of y = -646,210.29ln(x) + 42,070,066.16, with a R2 = 6.0%, the 2024 annual VMT was set to 147.69 and the 2024 annual serious injury rate was forecasted to 4.006. Therefore, the 5-yr MA serious injury rate forecast for 2024 was set to be 4.084. This value is trying to set a benchmark that is neither too high nor too low, but an achievable result.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2016-2022 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2021-2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Annual 211 212 215 201 195 197 201
    5-Year Average 206.8 204.0 201.8
    Target (5-Year Average) 672.2 191.4 194.5
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    The databases used to forecast the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and from the Automobile Accident Compensation Administration (ACAA, by its Spanish acronym). The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2020, for both databases. For the number of fatalities, a linear regression was chosen (this trendline is detailed at the beginning of this section) and, for the number of serious injuries, a polynomial (2 degree) trendline of y = 52.254x2 - 987.85x + 8646.3 was selected. Then, using those forecasts (trendlines), it was analyzed the average annual distribution between the non-motorized serious injuries; founding that, in average, they represent a 12% of the total serious injuries. Thus, after having analyzed all the annual distribution and overall behavior, the 2021 and 2022 forecast for the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries are set to 710 and 772, respectively. The 2022 forecast for the 5-year moving average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 672.2.
    The databases used to forecast the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the Road Safety Observatory, respectively. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2021, for fatalities; and from 2014 to 2021, for serious injuries.
    As explained in the section on serious injuries, in this 2022 Annual Report, injured people transported by ambulance are replaced by serious injuries as classified on the KABCO scale. Thus, the non-motorized serious injuries from 2019 to 2021 were analyzed and found that these crashes account for about 0.06077% (for pedestrians) and 0.01244% (for cyclists) of the total crashes per year.
    For the number of non-motorized fatalities, a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = -2.211x + 116.73; R2 = 0.3542) and cyclists (y = -0.3626x + 14.077; R2 = 0.269). For the number of non-motorized serious injuries also a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = -1.3577x + 90.783; R2 = 0.076) and cyclists (y = -0.1308x + 18.051; R2 = 0.0534). After having forecasted the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries, the 2022 and 2023 annual values are 188 and 184, respectively. Thus, the 2023 5-yr moving average for the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 191.4.
    The databases used to forecast the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries were from the Puerto Rico FARS Database and the Road Safety Observatory, respectively. The years considered during the analysis were from 2008 to 2022, for fatalities; and from 2014 to 2022, for serious injuries.
    For the number of non-motorized fatalities, a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = -2.625x + 118.93; R2 = 0.4632) and cyclists (y = -0.3036x + 13.762; R2 = 0.2318). For the number of non-motorized serious injuries also a linear trendline was selected for both pedestrians (y = -0.1333x + 85.111; R2 = 0.001) and cyclists (y = -0.2667x + 17.444; R2 = 0.0716). After having forecasted the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries, the 2024 annual value is 190. Thus, the 2024 5-yr moving average for the non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is 194.5.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2016-2021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2021-2023 Puerto Rico HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

N/A

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Puerto Rico 2022 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2018-2022 Target 2018-2022 Actual 2016-2020 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 284.8 289.4 281.6 No No No
Rate of Fatalities 1.949 2.004 1.924 No No
Number of Serious Injuries 4,883.4 574.2 550.6 Yes N/A
Rate of Serious Injuries 33.465 3.980 3.772 Yes N/A
Number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries 672.2 201.8 206.8 Yes N/A

Updated: 05/28/2024
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