Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Vermont

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	57	62	69	68	47	62	74
  5-Year Average					60.6	61.6	64.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							58.0	58.0	65.0

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The trend line value for the 5-year average number of fatalities predicted for 2021 using a linear regression model is 60.4. The 2019 actual 5-year average number of fatalities was 60.8 and the 2019 target was 56 while the 2020 target was 58. A 2021 target of 58 provides a decrease in traffic fatalities by 4.6% from the five-year average of 60.8 in 2015 – 2019 to a five-year average of 58 by the end of calendar year 2021. The 2017-2021 Strategic Highway Safety Plan measures success in term of overall crash reduction in serious and fatal crashes with a goal of 10% reduction by 2021. This represents approximately a 2.5% reduction per year. The percentage reduction in fatalities expected by this target supports the goal of the SHSP by providing a 4.6% reduction in the five-year average over two years.

  While the coordinating committee realized that the actual value for this target had plateaued over the years, the committee favored the idea of the 2022 safety target for fatal crashes not to be higher than the one from the previous year (the 2021 target was 58). With this in mind, the committee decided to keep the 2022 target the same as for 2021. A 2022 target of 58 provides a decrease of 5.5% from the five-year average of 61.4 in 2016–2020 and supports the goal of the SHSP by providing a reduction in the five-year average above 4.0% over two years.

  The 2022-2026 SHSP calls for a 10% reduction in the 5-year average of the number of fatalities. Annually, this represents a 2% reduction per year. The baseline for this SHSP goal is the 2021 fatalities 5-year average which was 64. Based on this, to support the SHSP goal, this means that the 2023 target should be 61.4.
  However, evidence from national reviews suggests that the pandemic created conditions that have resulted in higher level of fatalities in most states, including in Vermont. This trend appears to be being continued into the second quarter of 2022. With the current 2022 pace, fatalities in Vermont, in 2022, could reach again near 70 and if this is the case, to achieve a target that supports the SHSP goal means that a significant (and unrealistic) reduction in the number of fatalities in 2023 will be needed.
  Vermont is changing the ways that it is using HSIP funding and has started to allocate funding where the data indicate the problems are, by focusing more on rural roadways and systemic projects. The results of these changes will, however, not be seen in the immediate future.
  A regression trend line indicates a 5-year average value for 2023 of 64.96, and this formed the basis for setting this target.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	0.78	0.84	0.93	0.93	0.64	1.03	1.12
  5-Year Average					0.824	0.874	0.930
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.820	0.820	0.965

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The trend line value for the 5-year average fatality rate predicted for 2021 using a linear regression model is 0.815. The 2019 target was 0.800 and the actual 2019 5-year average fatality rate was 0.831.The 2020 target was 0.820. The proposed target suggests a decrease in the fatality rate per 100 million VMT by 1.3% from the five-year average of 0.831 in 2015 - 2019 to a five-year average of 0.820 by the end of calendar year 2021. This proposed target is downwards and supports the overall reduction in fatal and serious crashes presented in the 2017-2021 Strategic Highway Safety Plan.

  This measure is highly dependent on the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Vermont's 2021 target for the fatality rate five-year average was 0.82. This number is slightly higher than what is estimated (0.80) for a 2% SHSP yearly reduction with 2020 normal conditions and is also lower than what could be obtained for a 2% SHSP yearly reduction under existing conditions with the lower VMT due to pandemic restrictions (0.84). Vermont is still seeing a 15-18% reduction in traffic volumes as compared to 2019, and VTrans does not expect the VMT to get back to the usual 7.5 billion range in the near future. However, the coordinating committee decided to retain the same rate as for the 2021 target (0.82). The proposed target suggests a decrease in the fatality rate per 100 million VMT of 5.8% from the five-year average of 0.871 in 2016-2020 to a five-year average of 0.820 by the end of calendar year 2022 and supports the goal of the SHSP by providing a reduction in the five-year average above 4.0% over two years.

  A fatality rate scenario that would produce a target to support the yearly SHSP 2% crash reduction is unrealistic given that the yearly trend in fatalities for 2022 continues to ramp up and that VMT are still below the levels of before the pandemic.
  The new approach for Vermont to reallocate its HSIP funds in greater proportions towards rural roads and systemic projects will not have an effect in the short term in reducing fatalities.
  A regression trend line indicates a 5-year average value for 2023 of 0.965, and this formed the basis for setting this target.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	297	320	255	257	260	236	281
  5-Year Average					277.8	265.6	257.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							275.0	260.0	258.0

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The trend line value for the 5-year average number of serious injuries predicted for 2021 using a 2nd degree polynomial model is 270.6. The 2019 target was 265 and the actual 2019 5-year average number of serious injuries was 277.8. The 2020 target was 275. The propose 2021 target suggests a decrease in serious injuries by 1.0% from the five-year average of 277.8 in 2015 - 2019 to a five-year average of 275 by the end of calendar year 2021. The proposed target is a reduction in the 5-year serious injury rate, which supports the overall reduction in fatal and serious crashes presented in the 2017-2021 Strategic Highway Safety Plan.

  Serious injuries have been trending down over the last several years. The Excel trendline proposes that the five-year average will be around 270 serious injuries in 2022. A value below this trendline was selected in order to achieve progress towards the SHSP goal. The proposed target suggests a decrease of 2.1% from the five-year average of 265.6 in 2016-2020 to a five-year average of 260 by the end of calendar year 2022. This proposed target is downwards and supports the overall reduction intent of the SHSP.

  The 2022-2026 SHSP calls for a 10% reduction in the 5-year average of the number of suspected serious injuries. The baseline 5-year average for the SHSP is 258.
  The 5-year average has been trending down since 2017. However, the actual number of suspected injuries in 2021 was seven percent higher than in 2019 (at 280) following a low year of 236 suspected serious injuries in 2020.
  A regression trend line indicates a 5-year average value for 2023 of 239.56. The same point forecast for 2023, using the ARIMA forecasting method, is 257.8. The ARIMA forecast formed the basis for setting the target.
  This target maintains the current baseline for the SHSP with the aim of achieving greater reductions in the number of serious injuries in the later years of the plan as the outcome of the new HSIP funding allocations being currently deployed by Vermont are expected to improve safety.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	4.06	4.33	3.43	3.50	3.54	3.93	4.24
  5-Year Average					3.772	3.746	3.728
  Target (5-Year Average)							3.650	3.700	3.746

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The trend line value for the 5-year average serious injury rate predicted for 2021 using a linear regression model is 3.422. The 2019 target was 3.900 and the actual 2019 5-year average fatality rate was 3.796. The 2020 target was 3.750. The proposed target suggests a decrease in the injury rate per 100 million VMT by 3.8% from the five-year average of 3.796 in 2015 - 2019 to a five-year average of 3.65 by the end of calendar year 2020. The proposed target is a reduction in the 5-year serious injury rate, which supports the overall reduction in fatal and serious crashes presented in the 2017-2021 Strategic Highway Safety Plan. The percentage reduction in the serious injury rate expected by this target supports the goal of the SHSP by providing a 3.8% reduction in the five-year average over two years.

  A value of 3.65 was established for the 2021 target for the suspected serious injury rate five-year average. The actual 2020 value was 3.75. A 2020 value would have been around 3.60 to 3.68 with more realistic VMTs and maybe a slightly higher number of injuries. More normal conditions for 2020 suggest that an even lower value of near 3.5 would be needed to keep up with the SHSP. However, the coordinating committee felt that keeping this target near the 2021 value (3.65) would be preferable. This is another target that is dependent on the VMT and as mentioned previously, VTrans does not expect VMT to go back to pre-pandemic levels in the near future. The proposed target suggests a decrease of 1.4% from the five-year average of 3.752 in 2016-2020 to a five-year average of 3.7 by the end of calendar year 2022. This proposed target is downwards and supports the overall reduction intent of the SHSP.

  The point forecast for 2023, as determined by the ARIMA forecasting method is 3.746 with a 95% confidence interval of between 3.479 and 4.013 and formed the basis for setting this target.
  This target is above what would support the SHSP goal in terms of rate. Short and mid-term HSIP investments are expected to achieve greater reductions in the number of serious injuries in the later year of the SHSP as Vermont is changing the ways its is using HSIP funds by being more data driven and directing funds toward rural roads and more systemic projects.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	45	42	37	37	36	30	40
  5-Year Average					39.4	36.4	36.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							36.0	35.0	34.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The trend line value for the 5-year average number of bicyclist/pedestrian fatalities and serious injuries predicted for 2021 using a 3rd degree polynomial model is 33.817. The 2019 target was 35 and the actual 2019 5-year average was 39.8. The 2020 target was 36. The proposed target suggests a decrease in the number of bicyclist/pedestrian fatalities and serious injuries by 9.5% from the five-year average of 39.8 in 2015 - 2019 to a five-year average of 36 by the end of calendar year 2021. The 2017-2021 Strategic Highway Safety Plan considers pedestrians and bicyclists as two separate emphasis areas with their own sets of strategies. The reduction goal for each of these two emphasis areas in the 2017-2021 Strategic Highway Safety Plan is a 10% reduction if fatal and serious injury crashes. The percentage reduction expected by this target supports the goal of the SHSP by providing a 9.5% reduction in the five-year average over two years.

  The 2021 target for the number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized suspected serious injuries five-year average was 36. This value is about what is expected to happen from the Excel trend line for 2022. This value is slightly higher than what VTrans calculated as a target that supports the SHSP (34.8). To align with the SHSP, the coordinating committee decided to use a 5-year average of 35. The proposed target suggests a decrease in the five-year average of 3.3% from the five-year average of 36.2 in 2016-2020 to a five-year average of 35 by the end of calendar year 2022. This proposed target is downwards and supports the overall reduction goal of the SHSP.

  The 2022-2026 SHSP calls for a 10% reduction in the 5-year average of the number of fatalities and in the number of suspected serious injuries. The 2021 non-motorized fatalities & suspected serious injuries 5-year average was 36. To support the 10% SHSP goal reduction, or the equivalent reduction of 2% per year, the 2023 target should be 34.4. The target has been set at 34 based on a regression trend line 5-year average value for 2023 of 34.4 and supports this SHSP goal.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Vermont HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

With the exception of the target for serious injuries, all the other targets are the same as the 2020 targets. All targets, with the exception of the one for the number of fatalities, have been set between the 2021 trend value and the 2019 actual 5-year average. The target for the number of fatalities was set slightly lower than the trend line to match the 2020 target which VTrans felt was a better target to aim for. The targets for the number of fatalities and for the number of serious injuries in this HSIP report are different from the ones submitted for the HSP. The wrong numbers were provided in the HSP. VTrans is working with NHTSA to correct the numbers in the HSP.

2022 Comments:

VTrans has attempted to align the 2020 safety performance targets with the overall five-year goal of the SHSP rather than by trend lines. VTrans believes that this approach is more useful for making decisions towards investments. VTrans endeavored to determine what the safety targets should be in order to make progress towards a 10% SHSP overall reduction in the of fatal and serious injury crashes five-year average over five years (assuming that the 10% goal from the previous SHSP will be continued in the next SHSP update). The year 2022 will be the first year of VTrans’ updated SHSP. To keep it simple, VTrans assumed a 2% reduction per year. The 10% reduction should be from the 2021 averages, but because these are unknown for now, VTrans assumed a 4% reduction from the 2020 actual values. VTrans used Excel trend lines and generated predictions with ARIMA models for the year 2022 for all five five-year average safety targets as reference points.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.