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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Virginia

Select HSIP Report Year:

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 754 760 839 820 831 850 973
    5-Year Average 800.8 820.0 862.6
    Target (5-Year Average) 852.0 841.8 926.4
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 872 fatalities in 2020 and 898 fatalities in 2021. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2015 and is anticipated into 2021. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the Virginia Highway Safety Office (VAHSO) are described in Question 35. When Virginia’s 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of fatalities declining. Optimistic linear reductions in fatalities were envisioned and a goal of 50 percent reductions by 2030 appeared plausible. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent fatality increases, with policy focus on safety, the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost-effective systemic countermeasures, and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 850 fatalities in 2021 and 861 fatalities in 2022. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2015 and is anticipated into 2022. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the Virginia GHSO is described in Question 35. When Virginia's 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of fatalities declining, so a 2 percent per year fatality reductions was envisioned. Optimistic reductions in fatalities and a goal of 50 percent reductions between 2015 and 2030 appeared plausible. Without intense intervention to improve travel technology and safety culture, reversing the recent trends will be difficult. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) showing the predicted increases, the SHSP actions and goals have even more support, with policy focus on safety, the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures, and new legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements starting this year.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 971 fatalities in 2022 and 1012 fatalities in 2023. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2015 and is anticipated into 2023. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the Virginia Governor's Highway Safety Office (GHSO) is described in Question 35. Although the upward trend continued, Virginia's 2022-2026 SHSP safety performance objectives were set to match a 50 percent reduction by 2045 goal. This goal equates to about a two percent per year fatality reductions during the five year period. These optimistic two percent reductions in fatalities were adopted by the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) as state targets and objectives. Without intense intervention to improve travel technology and safety culture, reversing the recent trends will be difficult. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by CTB showing the predicted increases, the new SHSP actions and goals have even more support, with policy focus on safety, the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures, and new additional state funding of safety improvements starting last year.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2020-2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 0.91 0.90 0.98 0.96 0.97 1.12 1.21
    5-Year Average 0.944 0.986 1.048
    Target (5-Year Average) 0.984 1.004 1.134
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 0.994 fatalities per HMVMT in 2019 and 1.012 fatalities per HMVMT in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2017 and is anticipated into 2021. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. When Virginia’s 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of fatalities declining and post-recession VMT increases. Optimistic linear reductions in fatality rates were envisioned towards a 50 percent reduction goal. Recently, however, fatalities have increased and VMT growth is minimal. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent fatality increases and near level VMT, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 0.988 fatalities per HMVMT in 2021 and 0.995 fatalities per HMVMT in 2022. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2015 and is anticipated into 2022, particularly with the uncertainty of VMT growth through and after the pandemic. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO is described in Question 35. When Virginia's 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of fatalities and their rates declining with post-2008 recession VMT increases. Optimistic three percent reductions in fatality rates were envisioned towards a 50 percent reduction 2030 goal. Recently, however, fatalities have increased while VMT growth has been minimal to a reduction in 2020 VMT generating fluctuations in rates. Now that data-driven targets are being set for and approved by our CTB, the SHSP actions and goals have even more support, given recent rate trends, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements starting this year.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 1.176 fatalities per HMVMT in 2021 and 1.216 fatalities per HMVMT in 2023. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2015 and is anticipated into 2023, particularly with the uncertainty of VMT growth through and after the pandemic. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO is described in Question 35. Virginia's 2022-2026 SHSP safety performance objectives set optimistic objectives based on 50 percent fatality and serious injury reductions by 2045. Recently, however, fatalities have increased while pre-pandemic VMT growth was minimal to a reduction in 2020 and 2021 VMT generating fluctuations in rates. Now that data-driven targets are being set for and approved by CTB, the SHSP actions and goals have even more support, given recent rate trends, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and additional state funding of safety improvements starting last year.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2020-2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 8,014 8,087 7,634 7,442 7,197 6,798 7,397
    5-Year Average 7,674.8 7,431.6 7,293.6
    Target (5-Year Average) 7,451.0 7,072.2 7,211.8
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 7597 serious injuries in 2020 and 7385 serious injuries in 2021. These annual and 5-year average targets represent leveling of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. When Virginia’s 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set, there had been a long period of large annual reductions in serious injuries. Optimistic linear reductions in serious injuries were envisioned, although a flattening was beginning in 2015. Recently, serious injuries have remained somewhat level since that time. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent leveling, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost-effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 7,041 serious injuries in 2021 and 6,901 serious injuries in 2022. These annual and 5-year average targets represent leveling of the expected serious injury outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO is described in Question 35. When Virginia's 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of large annual reductions in serious injuries. Optimistic 5 percent per year reductions in serious injuries were envisioned, although a flattening was beginning in 2015. Serious injuries have declined an average of 4.2 percent since 2016 but are predicted to increase in the near term. As for fatalities, the uncertainty of future VMT influences make objective and goal setting difficult. Now that data-driven targets are being set for and approved by our CTB, the SHSP actions and goals have even more support, given recent leveling, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and new legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements this year.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 7,217 Serious Injury (SI) in 2022 and 7,465 SI in 2023. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an distinct leveling that began in 2015, after a long period of declines, and is anticipated to continue into 2023. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the Virginia GHSO is described in Question 35. Although the level trend continued, Virginia's 2022-2026 SHSP safety performance objectives were set to match a 50 percent reduction by 2045 goal. This goal equates to about a two percent per year SI reductions during the five year period. These optimistic two percent reductions in SI were adopted by the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) as state targets and objectives. Without intense intervention to improve travel technology and safety culture, reversing the recent trends will be difficult. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by CTB showing the predicted slight increases, the new SHSP actions and goals have even more support, with policy focus on safety, the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures, and new additional state funding of safety improvements starting last year.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2020-2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 9.70 9.57 8.95 8.72 8.42 8.93 9.23
    5-Year Average 9.072 8.918 8.850
    Target (5-Year Average) 8.615 8.444 8.822
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 8.657 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2020 and 8.325 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2021. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a leveling of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. Similar to fatality rates, optimistic SI rate linear reduction objectives were set for the 2017-2021 SHSP period. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent leveling of SI and near level VMT, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 8.186 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2021 and 7.971 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2022. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a reduction of the expected outcomes, after an increase due to lower VMT in 2020. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO is described in Question 35. Similar to fatality rates, optimistic seven percent SI rate reduction objectives were set for the 2017-2021 SHSP period. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our CTB, the SHSP actions and goals have even more support, given recent leveling trends, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and new legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements starting this year.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 8.740 fatalities per HMVMT in 2021 and 8.971 fatalities per HMVMT in 2023. These annual values began increasing in 2019 after a long period of declines. The 5-year average targets represent a leveling that began in 2018 and is anticipated into 2023, particularly with the uncertainty of VMT growth through and after the pandemic. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO is described in Question 35. Virginia's 2022-2026 SHSP safety performance objectives set optimistic objectives based on 50 percent fatality and serious injury reductions by 2045. Recently, however, SI have increased while pre-pandemic VMT growth was minimal to a reduction in 2020 and 2021 VMT generating fluctuations in rates. Now that data-driven targets are being set for and approved by CTB, the SHSP actions and goals have even more support, given recent rate trends, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and additional state funding of safety improvements starting last year.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2020-2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 727 762 723 703 720 641 695
    5-Year Average 727.0 709.8 696.4
    Target (5-Year Average) 725.0 660.0 663.2
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 733 and then 750 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries in 2020 and 2021, respectively. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a slight increase of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. Although pedestrian fatalities had a 50 percent increase in 2016 and have remained at that level, serious injuries for all non-motorized has declined. This combination resulted in an inverted U shape trend for annual total values and level five-year averages. To support our SHSP fatality goals, reducing our non-motorized deaths will provide an important part of the mission. Indicating a leveling of non-motorized severe outcomes has led to support of SHSP identified infrastructure improvements and education initiatives within VDOT and across our safety partner organizations.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 663 and then 646 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries in 2020 and 2021, respectively. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a slight decrease of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO are described in Question 35. Although there was a 50 percent increase in pedestrian fatalities in 2016 which has remained at that level, serious injuries from all non-motorized crashes has declined. This combination resulted in a leveling trend for annual total values and slight downward trend in five-year averages. To support our SHSP fatality goals, reducing our non-motorized deaths will provide an important part of the mission. Indicating a leveling of non-motorized severe outcomes and targets has led to support of SHSP non-motorized safety actions identified for additional funding of infrastructure improvements and education initiatives within VDOT and across our safety partner organizations.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 663 and then 662 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries in 2022 and 2023, respectively. With the exception of 2020 with decreased travel, these annual and 5-year average targets represent a slight decrease of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the GHSO are described in Question 35. Although there was a 50 percent increase in pedestrian fatalities in 2016 which has remained at that level, serious injuries from all non-motorized crashes were declining until an increase in 2021. This combination resulted in a leveling trend for annual total values and slight downward trend in five-year averages. To support SHSP fatality and SI goals, reducing our non-motorized deaths will provide an important part of the mission. Indicating a leveling of non-motorized severe outcomes and targets has led to support of SHSP non-motorized safety actions identified for additional funding of infrastructure improvements and education initiatives within VDOT and across our safety partner organizations.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2020-2022 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

N/A

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Virginia 2021 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2017-2021 Target 2017-2021 Actual 2015-2019 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 852.0 862.6 800.8 No No No
Rate of Fatalities 0.984 1.048 0.944 No No
Number of Serious Injuries 7,451.0 7,293.6 7,674.8 Yes N/A
Rate of Serious Injuries 8.615 8.850 9.072 No Yes
Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries 725.0 696.4 727.0 Yes N/A

Updated: 05/18/2023
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