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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2019) - Virginia

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The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 740 703 754 760 839 820 831
    5-Year Average 759.2 775.2 800.8
    Target (5-Year Average) 840.0 857.0 852.0
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    Five year average = 808
    Follows annual average trend line. These annual and 5 year average targets represent an increase that began in 2017 and is anticipated in 2018 and the next year.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 915 fatalities in 2019 and 950 fatalities in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2017 and is anticipated in 2019 and 2020. Additional information on the prediction method used is described in Question 35.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 872 fatalities in 2020 and 898 fatalities in 2021. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2015 and is anticipated into 2021. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the Virginia Highway Safety Office (VAHSO) are described in Question 35. When Virginia’s 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of fatalities declining. Optimistic linear reductions in fatalities were envisioned and a goal of 50 percent reductions by 2030 appeared plausible. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent fatality increases, with policy focus on safety, the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost-effective systemic countermeasures, and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2018-2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 0.92 0.87 0.91 0.90 0.98 0.96 0.97
    5-Year Average 0.916 0.924 0.944
    Target (5-Year Average) 0.940 0.995 0.984
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    Five year average = 0.944
    Follows annual average trend line for fatalities with a 1.5 percent anticipated growth in VMT. This represents a 5 percent reduction in the annual values from 2017 but about a 1.5 percent anticipated increase in the 5 year average values in 2019.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 1.05 fatalities per HMVMT in 2019 and 1.08 fatalities per HMVMT in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2017 and is anticipated in 2019 and the next year. Additional information on the prediction method used is described in Question 35
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 0.994 fatalities per HMVMT in 2019 and 1.012 fatalities per HMVMT in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent an increase that began in 2017 and is anticipated into 2021. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. When Virginia’s 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set there had been a long period of fatalities declining and post-recession VMT increases. Optimistic linear reductions in fatality rates were envisioned towards a 50 percent reduction goal. Recently, however, fatalities have increased and VMT growth is minimal. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent fatality increases and near level VMT, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2018-2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 8,643 7,594 8,014 8,087 7,634 7,442 7,197
    5-Year Average 7,994.4 7,754.2 7,674.8
    Target (5-Year Average) 7,689.0 7,641.0 7,451.0
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    Five year average = 7808
    Follows annual average trend line which represents a leveling of serious injuries in Virginia. Although there was a reduction between 2016 and 2017, the large reductions experienced as the SHSP objectives were developed have not been sustained.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 7575 serious injuries in 2019 and 7473 serious injuries in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a slight increase from 2018 and is anticipated in 2019 and the next year. Additional information on the prediction method used is described in Question 35.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 7597 serious injuries in 2020 and 7385 serious injuries in 2021. These annual and 5-year average targets represent leveling of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. When Virginia’s 2017-2021 SHSP safety performance objectives were set, there had been a long period of large annual reductions in serious injuries. Optimistic linear reductions in serious injuries were envisioned, although a flattening was beginning in 2015. Recently, serious injuries have remained somewhat level since that time. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent leveling, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost-effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2018-2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 10.70 9.38 9.70 9.57 8.95 8.72 8.42
    5-Year Average 9.660 9.264 9.072
    Target (5-Year Average) 8.750 8.871 8.615
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    Five year average = 9.16
    Follows annual average trend line for serious injuries with a 1.5 percent growth in VMT. The represents 2.2 and 5.3 percent change from the 2017 annual and 5 year average values, respectively.
    Five Year Rolling Average using 2019 predicted values above is based on predicted annual value of 8.69 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2019 and 8.47 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent slight decreases that began in 2017 and are anticipated in 2019 and the next year. Additional information on the prediction method used is described in Question 35.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 8.657 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2020 and 8.325 serious injuries per HMVMT in 2021. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a leveling of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. Similar to fatality rates, optimistic SI rate linear reduction objectives were set for the 2017-2021 SHSP period. Now that data-driven targets are being set and approved by our Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), the goals have even more support, given recent leveling of SI and near level VMT, with the reprioritization of HSIP on more cost effective systemic countermeasures and legislation for additional state funding of safety improvements.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2018-2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 714 730 727 762 723 703 720
    5-Year Average 731.2 729.0 727.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 714.0 724.0 725.0
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    Five year average = 720
    Given the large (57%) increase in 2016 pedestrian fatalities, that appears to be consistent in 2017 and 2018, our 2019 annual and 5 year average targets are essentially the same as 2017 values.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 711 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries in 2020. These annual and 5-year average targets represent slight decreases that began in 2016 and are anticipated in 2019 and the next year. Additional information on the prediction method used is described in Question 35.
    Five Year Rolling Average above is based on predicted annual value of 733 and then 750 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries in 2020 and 2021, respectively. These annual and 5-year average targets represent a slight increase of the expected outcomes. Additional information on the prediction method used and collaboration with the VAHSO are described in Question 35. Although pedestrian fatalities had a 50 percent increase in 2016 and have remained at that level, serious injuries for all non-motorized has declined. This combination resulted in an inverted U shape trend for annual total values and level five-year averages. To support our SHSP fatality goals, reducing our non-motorized deaths will provide an important part of the mission. Indicating a leveling of non-motorized severe outcomes has led to support of SHSP identified infrastructure improvements and education initiatives within VDOT and across our safety partner organizations.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2018-2020 Virginia HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

2019 Comments:

The strategies and action steps in each of these areas will help Virginia achieve the SHSP TZD vision and the mission “To save lives and reduce motor vehicle crashes and injuries through a data-driven strategic approach that uses enforcement, education, engineering, and emergency response after strategies.” The updated plan’s goal is to reduce fatalities and serious injuries by half by 2030, which is consistent with the National TZD Strategy on Highway Safety. To achieve the goal, Virginia has also established measurable fatality and serious injury objectives over the next five years. These objectives will be tracked each year to determine if the SHSP remains on target to achieve the recommended reductions. For 2017 we experienced an 11 percent increase in fatalities, so the SHSP objective for the frequency and rates were not met. Serious injuries declined by almost 6 percent in 2017, but had been level in 2016, so the frequency and rate objectives were also not met. Since the SHSP is a living document, the actions in the plan can be updated if it is not meeting the stated objective.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Virginia 2019 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2015-2019 Target 2015-2019 Actual 2013-2017 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 840.0 800.8 759.2 Yes N/A Yes
Rate of Fatalities 0.940 0.944 0.916 No No
Number of Serious Injuries 7,689.0 7,674.8 7,994.4 Yes N/A
Rate of Serious Injuries 8.750 9.072 9.660 No Yes
Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries 714.0 727.0 731.2 No Yes

Updated: 03/08/2022
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