Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2018) - New Hampshire

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/spm/.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2020 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
  Annual	108	135	95	114	136	102	147
  5-Year Average					117.6	116.4	118.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							113.2	116.4	118.8

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2018 Target
  • 2019 Target
  • 2020 Target

  The recommended target for fatalities is an increase of 2.2% per year for an estimated 5 year average to 113.2 by December 31, 2018 based on the data history. Trend Analysis should be used to determine data driven targets for measures dealing with Fatalities. Trend analysis produces intuitive results that are not politically sensitive for measures dealing with fatalities. NHDOT realizes there has been an increase in fatalities over the last several years. The graph shown in section 33 shows the results of the trend analysis and the trend lines use the most recent 5 year fatality averages to project the trend lines out to 2018. Although the target set is based on the data, NHDOT's efforts thru the SHSP is to reduce fatalities on NH roadways and will continue to advertise construction projects that will improve the safety on NH roadways to reduce fatalities.

  Trend analysis of the fatalities data produces mostly intuitive results. The 2017 five year averages are 116.4 fatalities and 0.881 fatalities per HMVMT. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two year cycle, with the number of 2017 fatalities being near the minimum for the decade. The five year average of the number of fatalities also dropped from 2016 to 2017, yet the trend line predicts a slight increase in fatalities for 2019. The annual fatalities rates and the five year averages mimic the same patterns seen in the numbers of fatalities, but the computed trend line shows a slight reduction in the 2019 target value as compared to the 2017 value. A 2019 target of 116.4 fatalities (i.e., maintaining the 2017 five-year average) is recommended for the following reasons. First, adopting a rising target as computed by the trend line would be contrary to the purpose of the HSIP and the Departments’ ambitions of achieving performance improvements. Second, analysis of the annual data indicates that next year’s five-year average computation will replace the statistically high year of 2013 with a possibly lower data point for 2018.

  Trend analysis of the fatalities data produces mostly intuitive results. The 2018 five year average is 118.8 fatalities. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two year cycle, with the number of 2018 fatalities being the highest recorded value for the decade. The five year average of the number of fatalities also increased from 2017 to 2018, but with the five-year average trend line mostly attenuating the large annual increase. The annual fatalities rates and the five year averages exhibit similar patterns seen in the numbers of fatalities. The rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable as a target as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state’s Driving Toward Zero initiative, thus a level trend has been selected as the target. A 2020 target of 118.8 fatalities (maintaining the 2018 five-year average) is recommended. The rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable as a target as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state’s Driving Toward Zero initiative.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2012-2017 Final FARS, 2018 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2017-2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
  Annual	0.84	1.05	0.73	0.87	1.01	0.75	1.07
  5-Year Average					0.900	0.882	0.886
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.866	0.879	0.885

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2018 Target
  • 2019 Target
  • 2020 Target

  The recommended target for fatality rate is to maintain or increase slightly the 5 year average fatality rate to 0.866 by December 31, 2018 based on the data. We anticipate a 0.014 percent annual increase in the fatality rate. Trend Analysis should be used to determine data driven targets for measures dealing with Fatalities. Trend analysis produces intuitive results that are not politically sensitive for measures dealing with fatalities. NHDOT realizes there has been an increase in fatalities over the last several years. The graph shown in section 33 shows the results of the trend analysis and the trend lines use the most recent 5 year fatality rate averages to project the trend lines out to 2018. Although the target set is based on the data, NHDOT's efforts thru the SHSP is to reduce fatalities on NH roadways and will continue to advertise construction projects that will improve the safety on NH roadways to reduce the fatality rate.

  Trend analysis of the fatalities data produces mostly intuitive results. The 2017 five year averages are 116.4 fatalities and 0.881 fatalities per HMVMT. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two year cycle, with the number of 2017 fatalities being near the minimum for the decade. The five year average of the number of fatalities also dropped from 2016 to 2017, yet the trend line predicts a slight increase in fatalities for 2019. The annual fatalities rates and the five year averages mimic the same patterns seen in the numbers of fatalities, but the computed trend line shows a slight reduction in the 2019 target value as compared to the 2017 value. A 2019 target fatality rate of 0.879 fatalities per HMVMT as computed by the trend line is recommended as this target is reasonable and consistent with recent performance, and confirms the NHDOT's goal to reduce fatal crashes.

  Trend analysis of the fatalities data produces mostly intuitive results. The 2018 five year average fatality rate is 0.885 per HMVMT. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two year cycle, with the number of 2018 fatalities being the highest recorded value for the decade. The five year average of the number of fatalities also increased from 2017 to 2018, but with the five-year average trend line mostly attenuating the large annual increase. The annual fatalities rates and the five year averages exhibit similar patterns seen in the numbers of fatalities. A 2020 target fatality rate of 0.885 fatalities per HMVMT (maintaining the 2018 five-year average) is recommended. The rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable as a target as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state’s Driving Toward Zero initiative, thus a level trend has been selected as the target.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2012-2017 Final FARS, 2018 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2012-2018 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2017-2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
  Annual	623	489	451	459	477	410	451
  5-Year Average					499.8	457.2	449.6
  Target (5-Year Average)							499.8	433.2	448.0

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2018 Target
  • 2019 Target
  • 2020 Target

  The recommended target for serious injuries is to maintain or slightly increase the serious injury 5 year average to 499.8 by December 31, 2018 based on the data history. We anticipate a 1.5% annual increase in serious injuries. Goals of maintaining current performance should be used for targets dealing with serious injuries. NHDOT realizes there has been an increase in serious injuries over the last several years. The graph shown in section 33 shows the results of the 5 year average. Although the target set is based on the data, NHDOT's efforts thru the SHSP is to reduce serious injuries on NH roadways and will continue to advertise construction projects that will improve the safety on NH roadways to reduce serious injuries.

  The number and rate of serious injuries dropped by 17 and 18 percent in 2017, respectively. The resulting trend analysis computed 2019 targets representing 4.1% and 4.6% annual reductions, respectively, from the 2017 five year averages. The computed targets are substantially lower than any historical values within the analysis period (prior to 2017). Sustaining this dramatic improvement in performance is difficult to justify absent any major identifiable contributing factors. A 2019 target of 433.2 serious injuries is recommended as it would be a more achievable goal consistent with the observed safety performance in recent years. This target represents an annual reduction in the five year average of 2.7%. The target for number of serious injuries has been computed by assuming the crash performance seen in 2017 is repeated in 2018 and 2019.

  Trend analysis shows reductions in both the number and rate of serious injuries. The computed 2020 targets represent 3.7% and 4.8% reductions respectively from the 2018 five year averages. The computed targets are substantially lower than any historical values within the analysis period (with the exception of 2017). A 2020 target of 448 serious injuries is recommended as it would be a more achievable goal consistent with the observed safety performance in recent years, yet would still represent the best serious injury performance in the decade. This target represents an annual reduction in the five year average of 0.2%.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2017-2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
  Annual	4.83	3.79	3.48	3.51	3.53	3.00	3.27
  5-Year Average					3.828	3.462	3.358
  Target (5-Year Average)							3.847	3.207	3.269

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2018 Target
  • 2019 Target
  • 2020 Target

  The recommended target for serious injuries is to maintain or slightly increase the serious injury 5 year average to 499.8 by December 31, 2018 based on the data history. We anticipate a 1.5% annual increase in serious injuries. Goals of maintaining current performance should be used for targets dealing with serious injuries. NHDOT realizes there has been an increase in serious injuries over the last several years. The graph shown in section 33 shows the results of the 5 year average. Although the target set is based on the data, NHDOT's efforts thru the SHSP is to reduce serious injuries on NH roadways and will continue to advertise construction projects that will improve the safety on NH roadways to reduce serious injuries.

  The number and rate of serious injuries dropped by 17 and 18 percent in 2017, respectively. The resulting trend analysis computed 2019 targets representing 4.1% and 4.6% annual reductions, respectively, from the 2017 five year averages. The computed targets are substantially lower than any historical values within the analysis period (prior to 2017). Sustaining this dramatic improvement in performance is difficult to justify absent any major identifiable contributing factors. A 2019 target of 433.2 serious injuries is recommended as it would be a more achievable goal consistent with the observed safety performance in recent years. This target represents an annual reduction in the five year average of 2.7%. The target for number of serious injuries has been computed by assuming the crash performance seen in 2017 is repeated in 2018 and 2019.

  Trend analysis shows reductions in both the number and rate of serious injuries. The computed 2020 targets represent 3.7% and 4.8% reductions respectively from the 2018 five year averages. The computed targets are substantially lower than any historical values within the analysis period (with the exception of 2017). A 2020 target of 448 serious injuries is recommended as it would be a more achievable goal consistent with the observed safety performance in recent years, yet would still represent the best serious injury performance in the decade. This target represents an annual reduction in the five year average of 0.2%.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2012-2018 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2017-2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
  Annual	59	57	53	66	62	54	40
  5-Year Average					59.4	58.4	55.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							51.4	53.4	51.6

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2018 Target
  • 2019 Target
  • 2020 Target

  The recommended target for the total number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is to maintain the existing performance for an estimates 5 year average to 51.4 by December 31, 2018 based on data. Trend analysis produces challenging results which are heavily weighed by serious injuries. Confidence in the results is further diminished by the source of information, which is inconsistent and it is a goal in NH to improve reporting for future years. Goals of maintaining current performance should be used for targets dealing with serious injuries. The goal is data driven. Trend analysis may be an option for analyzing measures dealing with serious injury data in the future as the system that produces the data is undergoing significant revision (Access Database to VISION). However, alternatives to trend analysis may be in use by that time. Although the target set is based on the data, NHDOT's efforts thru the SHSP is to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on NH roadways and will continue to advertise construction projects that will improve the safety on NH roadways to reduce the crashes of all types.

  Simple trend analysis predicts a rising value (poorer performance) of 56.7 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. Although similar poor performance has been experienced in the past (as recently as 2015) the result contradicts ambitions of achieving performance improvements and creates a politically challenging message. A 2019 target of 53.4 fatalities and serious injuries (i.e., maintaining the 2017 five-year average) is recommended for the following reasons. First, adopting a rising target as computed by the trend line would be contrary to the purpose of the HSIP and the NHDOT's ambitions of achieving performance improvements. Second, the recommended target appears to be a realistic and achievable goal as it is consistent with recent years’ safety performance.

  Trend analysis shows a slightly declining trend and a 2020 target value of 53.1 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. Although the trend line is declining, the computed target value is actually higher than the 2018 five-year average performance. In this instance, a more aggressive target value would be appropriate. A 2020 target of 51.6 fatalities and serious injuries (i.e., maintaining the 2018 performance) is recommended. This target would be consistent with the performance trend since 2015 and would represent a more aggressive, although still realistic, performance level.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2012-2017 Final FARS, 2018 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2017-2019 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2018 Comments:

Introduction: The data that will be used to determine significant progress (whether or not targets are achieved) is prescribed by regulations. The methodology to determine targets are not. Data is collected from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) and the New Hampshire Department of Safety (DOS). Trend analysis was used to analyze the data. Trend analysis uses past data and patterns to project future outputs. Trend analysis functions correctly when no significant change has occurred in the underlying processes that affect the overall metric. Safety gains are driven by policy and budget and because there has been no recent significant change to policy or budget trend analysis is appropriate. Sources Data is collected from several sources. Yearly values are collected from each source and when enough data is available, 5 year averages are created. 5-year averages are valuable for safety analysis because the 5 year period generally reduces variability that significantly affects values from year to year and because regulators will use 5-year averages to determine significant progress. To calculate 5 individual 5-year averages data would need to be available from 2007. Data sources are prescribed by the regulations: Fatalities: NHTSA, Rate of Fatalities (108 VMT): NHTSA & HPMS, Serious Injuries: DOS, Rate of Serious Injuries (108 VMT): DOS & HPMS, Non Motorized Fatalities & Serious Injuries: NHTSA & DOS

2020 Comments:

In concert with the collaborative and data-driven Strategic Highway Safety Plan, the annual safety performance targets have as their basis the SHSP's fundamental goal of reducing fatal crashes by half by the year 2030, with the ultimate goal of zero fatalities. A similar motivating goal drives the targets for serious injuries, both for motorized and non-motorized modes. The process of target setting, likewise, emulates the SHSP in that it is collaborative, involving many of the same safety stakeholders who are instrumental in the SHSP, and uses objective data-driven methods wherever possible to derive and inform the safety targets.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.