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Risk: Economic recession at national level.
Consequence: Slow down new development, reducing fee revenues.

Implement transportation projects in phases to satisfy transportation needs of ongoing developments rather than planned ones.

Risk: Real estate crisis.
Consequence: Slow down new development, reducing fee revenues.

Conduct detailed assessments of the real estate market and economic activity in the next 10 to 15 years and revise these assessments on a biannual basis.

Risk: Decrease in demand for residential properties due to migration.
Consequence: Slow down new development, reducing fee revenues.

Conduct feasibility studies that consider local economic and demographic factors in the short and long term to assess scenarios and develop resilient project alternatives.

Risk: Feasibility studies relies on real estate speculative assumptions.
Consequence: Local government is not able secure funds from the financial market.

Perform in deep feasibility studies free of speculative assumptions.

Risk: Increase in construction costs.
Consequence: Local government is unable to pay for the entire project and must use general revenue funds.

Perform thorough feasibility analyses that consider fluctuations on construction costs and other factors that may affect the final cost of implementing the project.

Risk: Unclear legislation at State level.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Consult legal team to evaluate the feasibility of using this value capture technique.

Risk: Resistance from developers.
Consequence: Developers moving their initiatives to other areas where no fees are charged.

Hold frequent public meetings to inform about transportation projects to be funded with revenues from the fees.

Risk: Increase in price of residential properties due to fees.
Consequence: Low-income families are unable to buy a house.

Waive or reduce charges to new development with a minimum percent of affordable housing units.

Risk: Lack of transparency in revenue usage.
Consequence: Improper use of revenues to fund projects.

Implement a continuous monitoring process to ensure the proper usage of revenues.

Risk: Inflation.
Consequence: Increase in roadway O&M costs.

Introduce legal language that allows local government increasing fees to account for inflation.

Risk: Work from home policies.
Consequence: Increase of commercial property vacancy rates decreasing revenues from office buildings.

Perform in-deep feasibility analyses accounting from fluctuations in commercial property vacancy rates.

Risk: Migration to other areas.
Consequence: Increase of residential property vacancy rates decreasing revenues.

Perform in-deep feasibility analyses accounting from fluctuations in residential property vacancy rates.

Risk: Discrepancies between forecasted and actual revenues.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to pay for the project and other funding sources need to be used.

Perform detailed revenue potential analyses at the feasibility stage and refine them once the TUF limits have been defined.

Risk: Discrepancies between expected and actual O&M costs that are funded by the TUF.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to pay for the project and other funding sources allocated for implementing essential service projects need to be used.

Consult the asset management system of the local government for expected O&M costs.

Risk: Unclear legislation.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Perform a legal assessment before establishing the TUF.

Risk: Public resistance because the TUF is perceived as a new tax.
Consequence: Political resistance to implement the TUF.

Organize public awareness campaigns to inform the public about the transportation improvements funded by revenues generated by TUFs.

Risk: Lack of equity on TUF calculations that are based on of trips generated in a certain area without considering the ability-to-pay of the residents.
Consequence: Disproportioned impact of TUFs on low-income and disadvantaged communities.

Establish mechanisms to adapt TUF to household income and waive the fees for unemployed residents.

Risk: Usage of TUF revenues for other purposes.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Implement a continuous monitoring process to ensure the proper usage of revenues from TUFs.

Risk: Construction cost increase.
Consequence: Revenues generated decline in present value.

Include escalation rates to account for changes in interest rates or inflation.

Risk: Real estate crisis.
Consequence: Decrease in property value leading to a decrease in revenues.

Perform thorough revenue analyses that consider real estate market trends and cycles at national and local level.

Risk: Decrease in attractiveness of commercial areas along frontage roads.
Consequence: Decrease in property value leading to a decrease in revenues.

Perform revenue potential analyses that consider the impact of potential decreases in retail and economic activity within the SAD.

Risk: Unrealistic forecast revenues.
Consequence: Local government is not able to secure funds from the financial market.

Perform detailed assessments of future revenue potential to avoid unrealistic revenue forecasts.

Risk: Discrepancies between forecasted and actual revenues.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to pay for debt commitments.

Perform detailed revenue potential analyses at the feasibility stage and refine them once the SAD limits have been defined.

Risk: Lack of support from the majority of landowners.
Consequence: Impossibility of establishing the SAD.

Conduct effective outreach and identify champions in the developer community to generate awareness of the project’s value generation benefits.

Risk: Public resistance because the SAD is perceived as a new tax.
Consequence: Political resistance to establish the SAD.

Conduct public meetings to generate awareness of the project’s value generation benefits and seek feedback from the public.

Risk: Lack of equity in property tax valuation when income levels of property owners are not considered.
Consequence: Disproportionate impact on small businesses and low-income residents.

Include mechanisms to reduce or waive fees to low-income residents or small businesses not generating a certain level of profits.

Risk: Lack of transparency in project selection.
Consequence: Image of opacity for property owners.

Organize public meetings to inform property owners of the district about the processes followed when selecting the project and the alternatives considered.

Risk: Economic recession.
Consequence: Decrease of sales within the district decreasing revenues.

Perform detailed assessments of future revenue potential considering macroeconomic indicators.

Risk: Increase in commercial vacancy rates.
Consequence: Revenues streams decrease.

Perform detailed assessments of future revenue potential considering fluctuations in economic activity at national and local level.

Risk: Decrease in industrial activity at local level.
Consequence: Decrease in sales and consequently BID revenues.

Perform detailed assessments of future revenue potential considering local industrial activity indicators.

Risk: Poor revenue potential assessment.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to pay for the project selected.

Perform detailed revenue potential analyses at the feasibility stage and refine them once the BID limits have been defined.

Risk: Increase of project costs.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to fund the project and essential services might be affected.

Include mechanisms in the fee/levy calculation that allow the local government to increase the fees/levies to meet funding requirements under particular circumstances.

Risk: Lack of compliance with statutory requirements.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Consult legal team to ensure the BID complies 100% with the statutory requirements.

Risk: Resistance from property owners.
Consequence: Impossibility to establish the BID.

Identify champions and conduct outreach to present the benefits of being members of the district.

Risk: Relocation of business to the district.
Consequence: Underutilization and underdevelopment of areas outside the district.

In areas outside the BID that are in risk of underdevelopment and underutilization, consider providing incentives to businesses to do not relocate.

Risk: Lack of transparency due to high degree of autonomy.
Consequence: Resistance from businesses within the district.

Perform outreach campaigns to inform businesses about how fees/levies are calculated and how revenues are spent.

Risk: Increase of interest rates.
Consequence: Higher financing costs of the project.

Evaluate the possibility of obtaining funding from the State Infrastructure Bank (SIB).

Risk: Real estate crisis.
Consequence: A decrease of land price that is translated into a decrease in revenues generated.

Perform detailed revenue potential assessments that account for real estate market recessions at national level.

Risk: Migration to other cities.
Consequence: Decrease of demand for residential properties is translated into a reduction of property values and revenues.

Consider local demographic indicators in the revenue potential assessments.

Risk: Poor assessment to establish the land value tax rate.
Consequence: Revenues are not enough to pay for project debt commitments.

Perform in deep potential revenue analysis that will help to define the tax rate.

Risk: Unexpected increase in construction material prices.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to fund the project and essential services might be affected.

Introduce language in the ordinance that allows the local government to revise the tax rates periodically to account for unexpected increases in project costs.

Risk: Current legal framework does not allow taxing land and improvements at a different rate.
Consequence: Impossibility of implementing land use taxes.

Consult legal team to evaluate if current legal framework allows the use of land use taxes.

Risk: Public resistance because land use taxes is a new tax.
Consequence: Local government may decide not to use land value taxes.

Organize outreach campaigns to inform the public about the transportation benefits that the implementation of land value taxes will generate.

Risk: Additional taxes for low-income property owners.
Consequence: Significant decrease of spending power in low-income communities.

Exempt low-income communities from paying land value taxes.

Risk: Poor risk management.
Consequence: Risks are not property identified and allocated.

Perform a thorough risk management process during the entire project life cycle.

Risk: Economic recession.
Consequence: Decrease in economic activity and revenue.

Perform detailed assessments of future revenue potential considering macroeconomic indicators.

Risk: Commercial attractiveness of the retail area is low.
Consequence: High commercial property vacancy rates that produce a decrease in revenues.

Conduct speculation-free revenue potential analyses.

Risk: Increase of unemployment rate.
Consequence: Decrease in sales and consequently in revenues.

Perform detailed assessments of revenue potential considering local employment indicators.

Risk: Poor project location within the district.
Consequence: Project is not spurring expected increase in sales generating difficulties to pay for debt commitments.

Perform detailed feasibility analyses that include the assessment of different potential project locations within the district.

Risk: Customers go to a commercial area neighboring the district.
Consequence: Sales decline and do not generate enough revenues to pay for debt commitments.

Define the boundaries of the district so all commercial areas that benefit from the infrastructure are included.

Risk: Lack of compliance with statutory requirements.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Consult legal team to ensure the STD complies with the State statutory requirements.

Risk: Public resistance of residents within the STD due to the new tax.
Consequence: Political resistance that may be translated into the impossibility of establishing the STD.

Organize outreach campaigns to inform the public about the transportation benefits that the implementation of the STD will generate.

Risk: Equity issues because STD do not account for income, or vehicle miles traveled.
Consequence: Disproportionate impact on low-income families.

Exempt STD tax in groceries and other necessity goods.

Risk: Lack of transparency in evaluation methods for project selection and location.
Consequence: Resistance from businesses and the public.

Publish the methodology used to evaluate project alternatives and locations along with the results of the evaluation.

Risk: Increase of interest rates.
Consequence: Decrease of demand for residential properties, and consequently the property values and revenues.

Perform revenue potential studies that accounts for fluctuations in interest rates.

Risk: Real estate crisis.
Consequence: Negative impact the value of the properties and new development decreasing revenues.

Perform revenue potential studies that accounts for real estate market risks at local and national level.

Risk: Unemployment and migration to other areas.
Consequence: Low real estate demand resulting in a decrease in property values and revenues.

Perform revenue potential studies that accounts for employment and demographics at local level.

Risk: Poor project selection.
Consequence: Impossibility to secure funds at a low interest rate.

Perform detailed feasibility analyses that include the assessment of different potential project locations.

Risk: TIF projects do not generated expected economic development.
Consequence: Funds that might be assigned to essential services should be used for the project.

Perform rigorous but-for test feasibility studies based on realistic expectations.

Risk: The but-for analysis has not been properly performed.
Consequence: Legal exposure and controversy.

Perform rigorous but-for test feasibility studies that are based on realistic expectations.

Risk: Political resistance against the TIF.
Consequence: Impossibility of implementing the TIF or modifications of its boundaries.

Identify champions in the political arena to generate awareness of the benefits that the implementation of the TIF will have.

Risk: Lack of affordable housing because of the economic development spurred by the TIF.
Consequence: Low-income residents are forced to leave the neighborhood.

Establish affordable housing requirements within the TIF.

Risk: Transparency issues because TIF budgeting process is separate from the municipal budget.
Consequence: Improper revenue use.

Implement a continuous monitoring process to ensure the proper usage of revenues from TIFs.

Risk: Economic recession at national level.
Consequence: Decrease in demand for leasing commercial properties reducing developer revenues.

Conduct comprehensive feasibility studies that consider short and long-term national, regional and local trends and multiple scenarios to develop resilient project alternatives.

Risk: Unexpected loss of retail area attractiveness.
Consequence: Decrease increase of vacancy rates and decrease of developer revenues.

Conduct in speculation-free feasibility analysis that consider different project and locations.

Risk: Unemployment.
Consequence: Decrease in demand for commercial real estate and revenues for the developer.

Perform revenue potential studies that accounts for employment in the neighborhoods that surround the project.

Risk: Poor selection of developer.
Consequence: The developer is not able to secure funds from financial markets.

Work with developers with a successful track record who understand and appreciate the complexities of joint development.

Risk: Local government may be forced to pay debt commitments if developer revenues are not sufficient.
Consequence: The project is subsidized with general revenue funds.

Perform a continuous risk management process and allocate risk allocation adequately.

Risk: Fail in meeting Uniform Act requirements.
Consequence: The project is not eligible for Federal funding.

Establish protocols to comply with Federal requirements ensuring eligibility of the project for Federal funding.

Risk: Public resistance to the project due to expected traffic increase.
Consequence: Political opposition.

Conduct awareness campaigns to present the benefits that will be generated by the project.

Risk: Gentrification.
Consequence: Increase in housing prices forces migration of lower-income residents to more affordable areas.

Implement affordable housing measures to mitigate the impact that the project may have on house rental price for low-income residents.

Risk: Failure in identifying and communicating certain risks to elected officials and the public.
Consequence: Local government is unaware of important risks.

Perform a thorough and continuous risk management process and organize outreach campaigns to inform the public about project risks.

Risk: Federal budget constraints.
Consequence: The roadway project and consequently the delivery of utilities is delayed.

Evaluate the implementation of other value capture techniques to create funds that will help to start the project.

Risk: Current legal framework does not allow utility JD along State corridors.
Consequence: Local government is not able to use utility JD.

Consult with a legal team to identify limitations in the implementation of the utility JD under current legislation.

Risk: Political resistance because of the legal complexity associated to the use of this value capture technique.
Consequence: Lack of political support to establish the utility JD.

Organize meetings with elected officials informing how the local government is going to comply with the legal requirements.

Risk: Economic recession affecting the company acquiring the naming rights.
Consequence: The company is not able to pay.

Negotiate with the company so payments are made at the time the agreement is signed rather than on an annual basis.

Risk: Real estate market around the transit station is underdeveloped.
Consequence: No company wants to acquire naming rights for that transit station.

Consider the use of other value capture techniques to spur economic development in the area before selling the naming rights.

Risk: Discrepancies between expected and actual business volume of the company.
Consequence: The company wants to cancel the contract.

Negotiate with the company so payments are made at the time the agreement is signed rather than on an annual basis.

Risk: Discrepancies between expected and actual O&M costs of the transit line.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to pay for the service.

Perform thorough revenue potential assessment and O&M cost estimation at the feasibility stage.

Risk: Discrepancies between forecasted and actual revenues.
Consequence: Revenues are not sufficient to pay for the project and other funding sources are used.

Perform thorough revenue potential assessment and O&M cost estimation at the feasibility stage.

Risk: Lack of compliance with current Federal legislation.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Conduct a thorough legal feasibility assessment in the early stages of the project.

Risk: Public resistance due to the reputation issues of the company.
Consequence: Political resistance to the use of this technique.

Conduct background checks of the companies interested in acquiring the naming rights to avoid controversy and reputation issues.

Risk: Lack of equitable distribution of revenues generated.
Consequence: Investments on transit services might be relatively low in disadvantaged communities.

Implement an equitable transit improvement plan.

Risk: The name of the company acquiring the naming rights does not comply with local government internal policies.
Consequence: Legal exposure.

Conduct background checks of the companies before using naming rights to fund a transportation project.