Asset Management

Relationships Between Asset Management and Travel Demand:
Findings and Recommendations from Four State DOT Site Visits

Appendix D: Michigan DOT Pre-Interview Survey Response

Contact Information

1. State: MICHIGAN
2. Agency Name: MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (MDOT)
3. Primary Asset Management Contact Person & Contact Information:

   MR. BILL TANSIL
   ADMINISTRATOR, ASSET MANAGEMENT DIVISION
   tansiw@michigan.gov and bakerj@michigan.gov (Judy Baker)
   (517) 335-6879

4. Please identify contacts within each DOT division / group with asset management responsibilities, if relevant, that we can meet with to discuss your asset management program. Alternatively, if all TAM responsibilities are housed within a single, "stand-alone" group, please indicate below. Not all rows need be completed if there are no relevant contacts.

Demographic Information

5. Population (est. 2005): Census estimate 10,120,860
6. Population growth (1990-2000 or 2005): 1990-2005 percent change: 8.88%
   1990= 9,295,297
   2005= 10,120,860
7. Population projected annual growth rate: 2005-2030: 0.05% annually, 12.42% total
   2005 estimate = 10,120,860 (Census)
   2030 estimate= 11,377,760 (MDOT)
8. Urban/rural population split: Census 2000: urban 74.7%; rural 25.3%
9. # of MPOs as of 2006: 12

General Transportation Asset Management (TAM) Information

10. Please provide a current organization chart for your state's DOT (URL or hard copy attached to the end of this survey). - Attached.
11. Do you have examples of reports/materials/analyses produced by or for your asset management function (specifically, documentation on your asset management program)? - Attached.
12. Coverage: What facilities / assets are covered by your asset management program/systems?

General Travel Demand Information

13. Please identify those DOT divisions / groups that collect, forecast, analyze, or make other uses of highway travel demand measures (including VMT, AADT, ton-miles, or other measures). Not all rows need be completed if there are no relevant contacts.

    Division	Contact Name	Position/Title	Phone	E-mail
    Planning - Travel Demand; Modeling; Long Range	Susan Gorski	Manager	517-335-2958	gorskis@michigan.gov
    	John Watkin	Supervisor	517-373-9038	watkinj@michigan.gov
    	Lyle Witherspoon	Supervisor	517-335-2955	witherspoonl@michigan.gov
    Statistics / Performance (gathering information now; monitoring highway conditions)	All same as previous contact table
    Operations, Project Delivery/Construction
    Maintenance
    Finance / Budgeting / Programming
    IT
    Design
    Region or Division Offices (MPO Relationship)
    Safety
    Other
    Other

14. Travel Demand Measurement: Please identify the primary measures of travel demand (either current or projected) currently gathered by your agency.

    Measures of Current Travel Demand

    Measure	Yes	No	Comments
    VMT	X
    AADT	X
    Ton-miles	X
    Vehicle ownership
    Other	X
    Other
    Other

    Measures of Future Projected Travel Demand

    Measure	Yes	No	Comments
    VMT	X
    AADT	X
    Ton-miles	X
    Vehicle ownership
    Other	X
    Other
    Other

15. Travel Demand Measure Usage: Please identify specific ways in which travel demand measures (either current or projected) are currently used in your asset management program or for other purposes such as planning, programming, or maintenance activities.

    There are two general types of models: system level models and simulation models. System level models have been developed by the Statewide and Urban Travel Analysis Section (SUTA) within the Bureau of Transportation Planning (BTP) at MDOT for each of the urbanized areas population between 50,000 and 100,000 population. The 5 urban areas over 200,000 population are responsible for the development of their own travel demand models. The SUTA Section has a copy of those models in house for project level analysis. The Statewide Model Unit is responsible for providing travel demand modeling analysis outside of the Federal Aid Urban Areas (urbanized areas with populations exceeding 50,000 population). Simulation models are developed for very small areas such as an intersection or series of intersections. They are typically developed by the BTP Project Planning Section or the Bureau of Highways.

    Travel demand forecasts are fundamental in determining estimates of future travel to be served by the existing transportation infrastructure (all modes) and in estimating future highway user tax revenues. The forecasts also provide critical information for: MDOT's Statewide and Region Long Range Transportation Plans (SLRP) and Sub-State Plans, the department's Transportation Management Systems, the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP), Air Quality Conformity Analysis, alternative transportation improvement justification and analysis and other project applications.

    Services and activities provided include existing and forecasted (20 year horizon required for planning and project development); population, employment and household data, effective speeds for calculating performance measures and air quality conformity analysis, travel paths, travel times, trip table matrices, passenger or vehicle flows, commodity flows (truck travel), alternative transportation improvement analysis, vehicle miles of travel and customer identification.

    Modeling Products

    1. Estimated and Forecasted Demographic and Employment Data
       The Transportation Planning process in Michigan begins with an estimate of existing population, households and employment. This provides the data set required for developing the base year trip table. The Michigan Employment Agency (MESA) employer listing provides the initial base year employment data for both the Statewide and Urban planning. These preliminary estimates are reviewed and revised by the Regional or Urban Planning agencies, or SUTA staff to more fully reflect all employment in the modeled area. The University of Michigan Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations (ILIR) periodically prepare county level population and employment estimates and forecasts for MDOT and these agencies. These are developed using a regional economic and demographic model; Regional Economic Model 5 Inc. (REMI). The model is driven by national employment forecasts and their influence on each county's economy along with a cohort model that responds to births and deaths provided by the State's Demographer Office. The model also accounts for migration either as a result of employment changes or retirees moving to or from a county. These data sets can be obtained either as tables or thematic maps.
    2. Auto Traffic Forecasts (five year increments) and Growth Rates
       Auto traffic forecasts are available from the statewide model. The results can be requested either as an annual average growth rate or total volume. The user is cautioned to be sure they understand the difference. Another issue to consider is what projects are included in the network being used.
    3. Truck Traffic Forecasts (five year increments), Commodity flow, Freight analysis and Growth Rates
       Truck traffic forecasts are available from the truck statewide model. The results can be requested either as an annual average growth rate or total volume. Truck forecasts are forecasted separately for the passenger statewide model.
    4. Level of Service (five year increments)
       The current and forecasted level of service is available from the models. This is computed by comparing the estimated design hour volume to the planning design hour capacity. The estimates are generalized and cannot be used for design purposes but are a general indicator of current and forecasted conditions. These forecasts are based on an annual average growth rate or trip tables for each year. The results can be requested either as an annual average growth rate or total volume.
    5. Performance Measures (five year increments)
       Performance measures (such as vehicle hour of delay) can be calculated using the models. The results can be requested either as an annual average growth rate or total volume. The user is cautioned to be sure they understand what trip tables and what networks are being used.
    6. Congestion Analysis (five year increments)
       Frequently plots or tables are requested to show the number of roadway miles where the level of service is greater than E.
    7. Prioritized List of Network Deficiencies (Based on various criteria)
       The model data bases or other information might be used or combined to rank a list of deficiencies to aid in priority setting.
    8. Detour Evaluation
       Models estimate the impact of road closures or partial road closures on other roadways, aiding in detour development.
    9. Alternative Analysis
       Models are used to estimate the travel impacts of changes in the road network either through widening existing roads or adding new links.
    10. Modal Trade Off Analysis
        Models are used to estimate the travel impacts of diverting trips to other modes.
    11. Select Link Analysis
        Select link analysis is a technical procedure that lets one create and assign a separate trip table for vehicles utilizing either an individual link or a series of links.
    12. Shortest Path/Travel Times
        One can plot the shortest path between two or more travel zones and estimate the travel time.
    13. Air Quality Runs
        Average travel speeds are extracted from the models to estimate vehicle emissions.
    14. Growth Rates
        Growth rates are obtained from the travel demand models and reflect the impact that the forecasted growth in households and employment will have on traffic volumes over a twenty year time period horizon.
    15. Environmental Justice Analysis
        Models are used to provide demographic profiles, including identifying the size and location of low-income and minority population groups. This provides an assessment of whether or not transportation system investments disproportionately burden or fail to meet needs of any segment of the population.
    16. Project Selection
        Models are used to provide current and forecasted level of service and other performance measures used in the project selection.
    17. Special Analysis
        Specialized data sets, proximity analysis and other socio-economic analysis can be derived from the model or its associated databases.
    18. Mapping
        Maps depicting current and future: population, employment, and networks with all associated attributes and trends.

    Measures of Current Travel Demand

    Measure	Usage
    VMT
    AADT
    Ton-miles
    Vehicle ownership
    Other
    Other
    Other

    Measures of Future Projected Travel Demand

    Measure	Usage
    VMT
    AADT
    Ton-miles
    Vehicle ownership
    Other
    Other
    Other

Self-assessment

16. My state DOT:

    	Agree	Neutral / Don't Know	Disagree	Comments
    Performs a statewide travel demand forecast or survey at regular intervals (e.g., annual VMT estimates)	X
    Performs a statewide long-range transportation infrastructure plan	X
    Performs statewide long-range transportation financial planning	X
    Includes long-range infrastructure planning as part of the asset management process	X
    Includes long-range financial planning as part of the asset management process	X
    Includes operations and maintenance as part of the asset management process	X
    Includes travel demand forecasting as part of the asset management process	X