Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2020) - Arkansas

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/spm/.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2020 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	470	550	561	525	520	511	638
  5-Year Average					525.2	533.4	551.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							541.2	536.3	631.5

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  See attached PDF for description.

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2019-2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	1.38	1.58	1.57	1.44	1.42	1.38	1.88
  5-Year Average					1.478	1.478	1.538
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.595	1.560	1.808

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  See attached PDF for description.

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document. .

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2019-2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	3,154	2,888	3,032	2,816	2,272	2,389	2,721
  5-Year Average					2,832.4	2,679.4	2,646.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							3,201.4	3,103.8	2,996.9

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  See attached PDF for description.

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2019-2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	9.27	8.28	8.48	7.74	6.19	6.44	8.02
  5-Year Average					7.992	7.426	7.374
  Target (5-Year Average)							9.441	9.043	8.608

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  See attached PDF for description.

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2019-2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	141	112	155	195	210	219	266
  5-Year Average					162.6	178.2	209.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							300.3	220.3	229.2

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  See attached PDF for description.

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2019-2021 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2020 Comments:

See attached Target Setting -Safety document page 8 for description of how the targets support the SHSP.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.