Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Arkansas

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	550	561	525	520	511	651	693
  5-Year Average					533.4	553.6	580.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							536.3	631.5	704.9

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  Reason for established target include the external factors listed below:
  Negative impacts
  
  Speed limit increase
  Increase in drug usage (Opioids and Medical Marijuana)
  Distracted driving
  Less enforcement due to officer shortages
  Increase in average vehicle speed due to lower traffic volume
  Increase in reporting and accuracy of accident reporting because some small local agencies are still doing paper reports.
  
  Positive impacts:
  
  Increase in highway safety improvements
  Gas price increase could influence changes in VMT
  There are safer vehicles on the road with enhanced safety features
  Motorcycle training
  Feds provide funds for MPOs to have resources to do their own targets.
  Selective Traffic Enforcement Program (STEP) and mini-STEP programs targeted enforcement grants overtime
  
  The positive impacts are directly related to the SHSP goals. By increasing highway safety improvements, Arkansas intends to lower the fatality rate. The established target reflects these impacts.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.58	1.57	1.44	1.42	1.38	1.92	1.80
  5-Year Average					1.478	1.546	1.592
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.560	1.808	1.895

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document. .

  Reason for established target include the external factors listed below:
  Negative impacts
  
  Speed limit increase
  Increase in drug usage (Opioids and Medical Marijuana)
  Distracted driving
  Less enforcement due to officer shortages
  Increase in average vehicle speed due to lower traffic volume
  
  Positive impacts:
  
  Increase in highway safety improvements
  Gas price increase could influence changes in VMT
  There are safer vehicles on the road with enhanced safety features
  
  The positive impacts are directly related to the SHSP goals. By increasing highway safety improvements, Arkansas intends to lower the fatality rate. The established target reflects these impacts.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	2,888	3,032	2,816	2,272	2,389	2,582	2,721
  5-Year Average					2,679.4	2,618.2	2,556.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							3,103.8	2,996.9	2,790.1

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  Reason for established target include the external factors listed below:
  Negative impacts
  
  More training is needed for officers reporting on eCrash and eCite due to change in definitions for crash reporting.
  Percent increase in VMT
  
  Positive impacts
  
  Bill signed into law to make street racing a felony
  
  In 2020, one of the major increases in fatal and suspected serious injury crashes was speeding and aggressive driving. There was also a large increase in speeding citations from 2019 to 2020. This bill supports the SHSP goals by potentially reducing the amount of speeding vehicles on Arkansas roadways since there will be increased penalties. The established target reflects this impact.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	8.28	8.48	7.74	6.19	6.44	7.61	7.08
  5-Year Average					7.426	7.292	7.012
  Target (5-Year Average)							9.043	8.608	7.815

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  Reason for established target include the external factors listed below:
  Negative impacts
  
  More training is needed for officers reporting on eCrash and eCite due to change in definitions for crash reporting.
  In 2020 there was decrease due to lower traffic volumes
  Percent increase in VMT
  
  Positive impacts
  
  Bill signed into law to make street racing a felony
  
  In 2020, one of the major increases in fatal and suspected serious injury crashes was speeding and aggressive driving. There was also a large increase in speeding citations from 2019 to 2020. This bill supports the SHSP goals by potentially reducing the amount of speeding vehicles on Arkansas roadways since there will be increased penalties. The established target reflects this impact.
  

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	112	155	187	207	219	283	283
  5-Year Average					176.0	210.2	235.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							220.3	229.2	274.4

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  In 2017 when SHSP was completed, eCrash was not as widely implemented as it is today so we are capturing more crash records leading to constantly adjusted targets. See attached PDF for additional details.

  Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalize d in 2OI7 . Description of Methodology The target-setting method, similar to previous years, is generally described below 1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average "smooths" the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2OL1.-2OI5,20'J.2-20'J.6,2Ot3-20L7 ,2O14-2OL8, and 2015-2019). 2. Calculate the average of these five data points. 3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance, given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the fact that 2020 crash data is incomplete, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers. 4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets. Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document.

  Reason for established target include the external factors listed below:
  Negative impacts
  
  Increase in reporting agencies and better reporting has increased contributed to the increase in non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries.
  
  Positive impacts
  
  Arkansas issued a new non-emergency number for Arkansas State Police *ASP to help with safety concerns that may arise on the road to quickly address issues before turning into something more serious.
  
  With the addition of a new non-emergency number for ASP, anyone can call the ASP with concerns regarding the safety of all road users. These calls could include information about pedestrians that appear intoxicated, vehicles that are inoperable on the roadway where a pedestrian is attempting to fix the disabled vehicle, etc. This supports the SHSP by focusing on issues that put pedestrians at a higher risk of an accident. The established target reflects this impact.
  
  

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Arkansas HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2023 Comments:

Through extensive coordination with the Arkansas Highway Safety Office, FHWA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), all MPOs, and other stakeholders, a methodology to determine the targets was finalized in 2017.
Description of Methodology
The target-setting method, like previous years, is generally described below:
1. Calculate moving averages for the last five years. A moving average “smooths” the variation from year to year. For this target setting, the moving average was calculated for the last five years that crash data is available (2013-2017, 2014-2018, 2015-2019, 2016-2020 and 2017-2021).
2. Calculate the average of these five data points.
3. Consider external factors to account for uncertainties. Past safety performance alone is not necessarily the best indicator of future performance given numerous external factors outside of ARDOT's control. For instance, to account for the 28.4% increase in the number of agencies turning in crash reports from 2015 to 2021, which contributed to an increase in total crash reports from 67,607 in 2015 to 82,301 in 2021, an adjustment factor may be considered to account for the uncertainty of what the final numbers will be, rather than attempting to predict exact numbers.
4. Apply any adjustment factors as needed based on Step 3 to the averages calculated in Step 2 to determine targets.
Please see attached Safety Performance Targets Document for more details.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.