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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2019) - Colorado

Select HSIP Report Year:

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 482 488 547 608 648 632 596
    5-Year Average 554.6 584.6 606.2
    Target (5-Year Average) 644.0 618.0 603.0
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    CDOT analyzed fatal crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future increases in fatal crash numbers, resulting in short term targets with an increase in fatal crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in fatalities and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 644 is the predicted five year rolling average.
    CDOT analyzed fatal crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated flattening trend in fatal crash numbers, resulting in short term targets with a decrease in fatal crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in fatalities and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 618 is the predicted five year rolling average.
    The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2018-2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 1.03 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.21 1.17 1.09
    5-Year Average 1.098 1.126 1.144
    Target (5-Year Average) 1.210 1.140 1.113
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    CDOT analyzed fatal crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. The fatality rate is based on the assumption that fatal crashes and VMT are both increasing in the near term. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future increases in fatality rates, resulting in short term targets with an increase in the fatal rate. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in the fatality rate and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 1.21 is based on the five year moving average.
    CDOT analyzed fatal crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. The fatality rate is based on the assumption that fatal crashes and VMT are both increasing in the near term. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future decreases in fatality rates, resulting in short term targets with a decrease in the fatal rate. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in the fatality rate and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 1.143 is based on the five year moving average.
    The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2018-2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 3,215 3,222 3,200 3,073 3,033 3,389 3,190
    5-Year Average 3,148.6 3,183.4 3,177.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 2,909.0 3,271.0 3,161.0
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    CDOT analyzed serious injury crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future increases in serious injury crash numbers, resulting in short term targets with an increase in serious injury crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in serious injury crashes and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in pursuit of the aspirational goal. The target of 2909 is the predicted five year average.
    CDOT analyzed serious injury crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future increases in serious injury crash numbers, resulting in short term targets with an increase in serious injury crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in serious injury crashes and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in pursuit of the aspirational goal. The target of 3271 is the predicted five year average.
    The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2018-2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 6.85 6.58 6.34 5.89 5.68 6.28 5.84
    5-Year Average 6.268 6.154 6.006
    Target (5-Year Average) 5.575 6.075 5.828
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    CDOT analyzed serious injury crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. The serious injury rate is based on the assumption that serious injury crashes and VMT are both increasing in the near term. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in serious injury crashes and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in pursuit of the aspirational goal. The target of 5.575 is the predicted five year average.
    CDOT analyzed serious injury crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. The serious injury rate is based on the assumption that serious injury crashes and VMT are both increasing in the near term. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in serious injury crashes and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in pursuit of the aspirational goal. The target of 6.075 is the predicted five year average.
    The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2018-2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 554 552 567 549 554 552 571
    5-Year Average 555.2 554.8 558.6
    Target (5-Year Average) 514.0 670.0 551.0
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    CDOT analyzed the non-motorized fatalities and serious injury data going back to 2007, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated increases in the non-motorized crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in the fatality rate and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 514 is based on the five year moving average.
    CDOT analyzed the non-motorized fatalities and serious injury data going back to 2007, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated increases in the non-motorized crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in the fatality rate and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 670 is based on the five year moving average.
    The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2018-2020 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

Over the past few months, CDOT staff have taken into account the efforts and analysis of the STSP planning process and the 15% reduction target it has set for 2023, as well as trend analyses of the 2008 – 2019 existing data and is recommending the below targets for the five-year rolling average of 2017-2021. The targets established this year will be assessed for progress by FHWA in 2023.The 2017-2021 targets incorporate trend analysis of past years, consideration of the transportation safety climate factors and causalities, and actions that CDOT and other safety stakeholder agencies are taking to reduce all crashes – but primarily the targets established are consistent with the assertive vision of the Colorado Strategic Transportation Safety Plan (STSP). While Colorado and CDOT are still endeavoring to move toward zero deaths and injuries and significantly reduced crashes, these targets established are for the purposes of national target setting and are done so with both the Moving Toward Zero Deaths vision in mind and with the FHWA requirements for target setting. While the world finds itself in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic and from a transportation perspective the resulting impacts to traffic volumes and crashes, none of us know just what the transportation impact will be for this target-setting period. So far, the reduced volumes of traffic (at one point several locations had reductions up to 50% of historical volumes) have translated to reduced crashes, injuries, and fatalities, yet in less proportion. The STSP (SHSP) process for renewing Colorado’s vision, mission, targets, and strategies considered the input of hundreds of stakeholders reviewing Colorado crash data, Colorado’s current transportation safety climate, and actions steps possible to make progress in improving safety. Many influencing factors were considered during the plan development process.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Colorado 2019 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2015-2019 Target 2015-2019 Actual 2013-2017 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 644.0 606.2 554.6 Yes N/A No
Rate of Fatalities 1.210 1.144 1.098 Yes N/A
Number of Serious Injuries 2,909.0 3,177.0 3,148.6 No No
Rate of Serious Injuries 5.575 6.006 6.268 No Yes
Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries 514.0 558.6 555.2 No No

Updated: 05/26/2021
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