Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2020) - Colorado

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/spm/.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2020 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	488	547	608	648	632	597	622
  5-Year Average					584.6	606.4	621.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							618.0	603.0	597.0

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  CDOT analyzed fatal crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated flattening trend in fatal crash numbers, resulting in short term targets with a decrease in fatal crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in fatalities and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 618 is the predicted five year rolling average.

  The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  Although forecast models using regression and exponential smoothing models were applied to predict 2022 numbers, the increase in fatalities and decrease in travel volume in the pandemic year of 2020 were deemed too uncertain as far as how it could accurately project the number of fatalities and serious injuries in subsequent years. As a result, CDOT executive leadership directed that calendar 2019 numbers shall be used as the target for the 2018-2022 five-year average. Although these targets are aspirational, CDOT continues to implement its STSP and had made progress within the last reporting period by establishing a safety champion, coordinating existing safety programs, prioritizing safety in transportation planning, promoting proven safety countermeasures and implementing systemic safety improvement strategies to help achieve these targets.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2019-2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	1.00	1.08	1.17	1.21	1.17	1.09	1.28
  5-Year Average					1.126	1.144	1.184
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.140	1.113	1.093

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  CDOT analyzed fatal crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. The fatality rate is based on the assumption that fatal crashes and VMT are both increasing in the near term. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future decreases in fatality rates, resulting in short term targets with a decrease in the fatal rate. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in the fatality rate and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 1.143 is based on the five year moving average.

  The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  Although forecast models using regression and exponential smoothing models were applied to predict 2022 numbers, the increase in fatalities and decrease in travel volume in the pandemic year of 2020 were deemed too uncertain as far as how it could accurately project the number of fatalities and serious injuries in subsequent years. As a result, CDOT executive leadership directed that calendar 2019 numbers shall be used as the target for the 2018-2022 five-year average. Although these targets are aspirational, CDOT continues to implement its STSP and had made progress within the last reporting period by establishing a safety champion, coordinating existing safety programs, prioritizing safety in transportation planning, promoting proven safety countermeasures and implementing systemic safety improvement strategies to help achieve these targets.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2019-2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	3,222	3,200	3,092	3,049	3,406	3,194	2,762
  5-Year Average					3,193.8	3,188.2	3,100.6
  Target (5-Year Average)							3,271.0	3,161.0	3,194.0

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  CDOT analyzed serious injury crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated future increases in serious injury crash numbers, resulting in short term targets with an increase in serious injury crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in serious injury crashes and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in pursuit of the aspirational goal. The target of 3271 is the predicted five year average.

  The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  Although forecast models using regression and exponential smoothing models were applied to predict 2022 numbers, the increase in fatalities and decrease in travel volume in the pandemic year of 2020 were deemed too uncertain as far as how it could accurately project the number of fatalities and serious injuries in subsequent years. As a result, CDOT executive leadership directed that calendar 2019 numbers shall be used as the target for the 2018-2022 five-year average. Although these targets are aspirational, CDOT continues to implement its STSP and had made progress within the last reporting period by establishing a safety champion, coordinating existing safety programs, prioritizing safety in transportation planning, promoting proven safety countermeasures and implementing systemic safety improvement strategies to help achieve these targets.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2019-2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	6.58	6.34	5.93	5.71	6.31	5.85	5.68
  5-Year Average					6.174	6.028	5.896
  Target (5-Year Average)							6.075	5.828	5.846

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  CDOT analyzed serious injury crash data going back to 2002, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. The serious injury rate is based on the assumption that serious injury crashes and VMT are both increasing in the near term. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in serious injury crashes and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in pursuit of the aspirational goal. The target of 6.075 is the predicted five year average.

  The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  Although forecast models using regression and exponential smoothing models were applied to predict 2022 numbers, the increase in fatalities and decrease in travel volume in the pandemic year of 2020 were deemed too uncertain as far as how it could accurately project the number of fatalities and serious injuries in subsequent years. As a result, CDOT executive leadership directed that calendar 2019 numbers shall be used as the target for the 2018-2022 five-year average. Although these targets are aspirational, CDOT continues to implement its STSP and had made progress within the last reporting period by establishing a safety champion, coordinating existing safety programs, prioritizing safety in transportation planning, promoting proven safety countermeasures and implementing systemic safety improvement strategies to help achieve these targets.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2014-2020 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2019-2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
  Annual	552	567	549	554	552	571	486
  5-Year Average					554.8	558.6	542.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							670.0	551.0	571.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2020 Target
  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target

  CDOT analyzed the non-motorized fatalities and serious injury data going back to 2007, developed multiple models, created best fit curves, and determined targets based on examination of the various predicted values. Contributing factors were considered, including the following: population growth, increases in VMT, economic growth, potential funding changes, and legislative changes. All of the models indicated increases in the non-motorized crashes. The SHSP is an aspirational goal of moving Colorado towards zero deaths and is the long term vision for the state. The targets recognize the uptick in the fatality rate and the need to focus on programs to reduce crashes in order to pursue the aspirational goal. The target of 670 is based on the five year moving average.

  The Highway Safety Office and Traffic and Safety Engineering Branch, with contribution from CDPHE, coordinated an analysis of crash data through various statistical methods - including Loess regression and Excel exponential, linear, logarithmic, and power polynomial regression line best fit curves - as a comparative analysis to the STSP. The STSP set a target for 15% reduction by 2023 and 2% reduction for 2020, with an average goal of 3.75% per year. The trend analysis has shown that the fatalities have continued to decrease from previous years, with a 5.7% reduction in 2019 and 2.5% reduction in 2018 in comparison with 6.6 % increase in 2017 and 11.2% increase in 2016. The serious injuries have stayed relatively unchanged since 2015. The various analyses were consistent with the direction of the STSP targets, which were then used to develop the 5 year safety targets for 2020 and 2021.

  Although forecast models using regression and exponential smoothing models were applied to predict 2022 numbers, the increase in fatalities and decrease in travel volume in the pandemic year of 2020 were deemed too uncertain as far as how it could accurately project the number of fatalities and serious injuries in subsequent years. As a result, CDOT executive leadership directed that calendar 2019 numbers shall be used as the target for the 2018-2022 five-year average. Although these targets are aspirational, CDOT continues to implement its STSP and had made progress within the last reporting period by establishing a safety champion, coordinating existing safety programs, prioritizing safety in transportation planning, promoting proven safety countermeasures and implementing systemic safety improvement strategies to help achieve these targets.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2014-2019 Final FARS, 2020 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2019-2021 Colorado HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

Over the past few months, CDOT staff have taken into account the efforts and analysis of the STSP planning process and the 15% reduction target it has set for 2023, as well as trend analyses of the 2008 – 2019 existing data and is recommending the below targets for the five-year rolling average of 2017-2021. The targets established this year will be assessed for progress by FHWA in 2023. The 2017-2021 targets incorporate trend analysis of past years, consideration of the transportation safety climate factors and causalities, and actions that CDOT and other safety stakeholder agencies are taking to reduce all crashes – but primarily the targets established are consistent with the assertive vision of the Colorado Strategic Transportation Safety Plan (STSP). While Colorado and CDOT are still endeavoring to move toward zero deaths and injuries and significantly reduced crashes, these targets established are for the purposes of national target setting and are done so with both the Moving Toward Zero Deaths vision in mind and with the FHWA requirements for target setting. While the world finds itself in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic and from a transportation perspective the resulting impacts to traffic volumes and crashes, none of us know just what the transportation impact will be for this target-setting period. So far, the reduced volumes of traffic (at one point several locations had reductions up to 50% of historical volumes) have translated to reduced crashes, injuries, and fatalities, yet in less proportion. The STSP (SHSP) process for renewing Colorado’s vision, mission, targets, and strategies considered the input of hundreds of stakeholders reviewing Colorado crash data, Colorado’s current transportation safety climate, and actions steps possible to make progress in improving safety. Many influencing factors were considered during the plan development process.

2022 Comments:

Colorado did not meet or make significant progress toward achieving its safety performance targets for calendar year 2019.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.