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Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2019) - Connecticut

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The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 286 248 270 304 281 293 249
    5-Year Average 277.8 279.2 279.4
    Target (5-Year Average) 274.0 277.0 270.0
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    Annual fatality figures have fluctuated during the five year reporting period, but the 5 year moving average has been flat or increasing. The projected 5 year trend line based on a regression analysis is relatively flat for the next 2 years. Based on the projected trend line, the number of fatalities is expected to remain flat or slightly increase during the planning period.
    • There were 278 Fatalities in 2017, a single year decrease from the 304 recorded in 2016.
    • Although the single year fatality total decreased, the five-year average continued to rise to 277 in 2017.
    • The most current preliminary data show there were 297 Fatalities in 2018, a single year increase from the 278 recorded in 2017. The 2018 five-year moving average value of 279 also represents an increase from the previous year. This figure is also the highest five-year moving average recorded during the reporting period.
    • The projected five-year moving average predicts an increase in fatalities for the period for which this target will be set.
    • TARGET: Based on the recent and projected increases in fatalities, Connecticut chooses to set a target to maintain the five-year moving average of 277.

    The target in the SHSP for this performance metric is combined with the number of serious injuries. If we meet this target, or fall below it, the goal for the combined performance measure in the 2017-2021 SHSP will be achieved.

    "Annual” Fatalities.
    - The annual number of fatalities did fluctuate as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a downward trend since a high point of 304 fatalities in 2016.
    - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect the fatalities to drop to 260-270, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.
    5-Year Moving Average.
    - In contrast to the annual numbers, the 5-year moving average is exhibiting a continuing upward trend. The trendline suggests the 5-year moving average could be as much as 20-25 fatalities higher than the likely annual trend. (The annual trend reflects the influence of decreasing fatalities since 2016.)
    TARGET:
    - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality target of 270.0. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 260-290.
    2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality levels experienced in 2015 and earlier.
    3. CTDOT recognizes that 2019 had an exceptionally low number of fatalities. The unusually large reduction of 39 fatalities between 2018 and 2019 could be a statistical anomaly.

    The goal in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP for number of fatalities is combined with number of serious injuries. By 2021, the goal is to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads by 15%. It is hopeful that CT can reach this goal by implementing the strategies in each of the emphasis areas.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2018-2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 0.92 0.80 0.85 0.96 0.89 0.93 0.79
    5-Year Average 0.884 0.886 0.884
    Target (5-Year Average) 0.873 0.883 0.850
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    While the annual fatality rate (per HMVMT) has fluctuated year to year, the moving 5 year average has been flat or slightly increasing. The projected 5 year trend line based on a regression analysis is relatively flat for the next 2 years. Based on the projected trend line, the fatality rate is expected to remain flat or slightly increase during the planning period.
    • There were 0.883 Fatalities per 100M VMT in 2017, a single year decrease from the 0.961 recorded in 2016.
    • Although the single year fatality rate decreased, the five-year average continued to rise to 0.883 in 2017.
    • The most current preliminary data show the fatality rate of .930 for 2018, a single year increase from the .883 recorded in 2017. The 2018 five-year moving average value of 0.885 also represents an increase from the previous year. This figure is also the highest five-year moving average recorded during the reporting period. These rate projections are based on 2017 VMT data.
    • The projected five-year moving average predicts an increase in the fatality rate per 100M VMT for the period for which this target will be set.
    • TARGET: Based on the recent and projected increases in fatalities, Connecticut chooses to set a target to maintain the five-year moving average of .883 Fatalities per 100M VMT.

    The 2017-2021 SHSP does not use rates as a performance metric.
    - The annual fatality rate fluctuates as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a downward trend since a high point of 0.961 fatalities/100M VMT in 2016.
    - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely numb

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2018-2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 1,523 1,356 1,526 1,689 1,641 1,361 1,335
    5-Year Average 1,547.0 1,514.6 1,510.4
    Target (5-Year Average) 1,574.0 1,547.0 1,360.0
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    While the serious injuries have fluctuated year to year, the 5 year moving average has been trending down with the except of the last two years which have been flat. The projected 5 year trend line based on a regression analysis is slightly decreasing for the next 2 years. However the most recent 3 years of data (2015-2017) suggest the number of serious injuries is no longer decreasing. Based on the projected trend line and the most recent 3 years of data, the number of serious injuries is expected to be flat during the planning period.
    • There were 1,643 Serious (A) Injuries in 2017, a single year decrease from the 1,689 recorded in 2016.
    • The 2017 five-year moving average of 1,547 Serious (A) Injuries in 2017 also decreased from the 1,574 recorded in 2016.
    • The most current preliminary data show there were 1,269 Serious (A) Injuries in 2018, a single year decrease from the 1,643 recorded in 2017. The 2018 Serious (A) Injury total could be an anomaly, based on recent single year totals and trends. It is the lowest single year value recorded during the reporting period. The 2018 five-year moving average value of 1,497 also represents a decrease from the previous year and is the lowest recorded during the reporting period.
    • The projected five-year moving average projects a decrease in Serious (A) Injuries for the period for which this target will be set.
    • TARGET: Although there have been recent decreases in Serious (A) injuries, the preliminary 2018 figure and projected moving average may be an anomaly. Based on current data, Connecticut chooses to set a target to maintain the five-year moving average of 1,547 Serious (A) Injuries.

    The target in the SHSP for this performance metric is combined with the number of fatalities. If we meet this target, or fall below it, the goal for the combined performance measure in the 2017-2021 SHSP will be achieved.
    “Annual” Serious Injuries.
    - The annual number of serious injuries fluctuated as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 1689 serious injuries in 2016.
    - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of serious injuries in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect a large drop in serious injuries. The drop is expected to bring the annual number down to the 1260-1300 range, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.
    5-Year Moving Average.
    - Unlike the case for fatalities, the 5-year moving average for serious injuries is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a large difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to drop to around 1410, while the regression forecast is 1260-1300.
    TARGET:
    - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality target of 1360.0 serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 1260-1410.
    2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and earlier.

    The goal in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP for number of fatalities is combined with number of serious injuries. By 2021, the goal is to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads by 15%. It is hopeful that CT can reach this goal by implementing the strategies in each of the emphasis areas.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2018-2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 4.92 4.35 4.83 5.34 5.21 4.31 4.22
    5-Year Average 4.930 4.808 4.782
    Target (5-Year Average) 5.024 4.931 4.300
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    While the serious injury rate (per HMVMT) has fluctuated year to year, the moving 5 year average has been trending down but flat over the last 3 years. The projected 5 year trend line based on a regression analysis is slightly decreasing for the next 2 years. However the most recent 3 years of data (2015-2017)suggest the number of serious injuries is no longer decreasing but instead might be flattening out. Based on the projected trend line and the most recent 3 years of data, the serious injury rate is expected to be flat during the planning period.
    • There were 5.216 Serious (A) Injuries per 100M VMT in 2017, a single year decrease from the rate of 5.338 recorded in 2016.
    • The 2017 five-year moving average of 4.931 Serious (A) Injuries per 100M VMT in 2017 also decreased from the 5.025 recorded in 2016.
    • The most current preliminary data show a rate of 4.029 Serious (A) Injuries per 100 M VMT in 2018, a single year decrease from the 5.216 recorded in 2017. The 2018 Serious (A) Injury total and rate could be an anomaly, based on recent single year totals and trends. It is the lowest single year rate recorded during the reporting period. The 2018 five-year moving average value of 4.752 also represents a decrease from the previous year and is the lowest recorded during the reporting period.
    • The projected five-year moving average projects a decrease in Serious (A) Injuries for the period for which this target will be set.
    • TARGET: Although there have been recent decreases in Serious (A) injuries, the preliminary 2018 figure and projected moving average may be an anomaly. Based on current data, Connecticut chooses to set a target to maintain the five-year moving average of 4.931 Serious (A) Injuries per 100M VMT.

    The 2017-2021 SHSP does not use rates as a performance metric.
    “Annual” Serious Injury Rates.
    - The annual serious injury rates fluctuated as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 5.34 serious injuries/100 million VMT in 2016.
    - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely serious injury rates in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect large a drop in the serious injury rates. The drop is expected to bring the annual rate down to 3.90-4.10, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.
    5-Year Moving Average.
    - Unlike the case for fatality rates, the 5-year moving average for serious injury rates is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a large difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to drop to around 4.50, while the regression forecast is 3.90-4.10.
    TARGET:
    - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality target of 4.30 serious injuries/100M VMT. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 3.90-4.50.
    2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and earlier.

    CT does not have goals for serious injury rate per HMVMT in its 2017-2021 SHSP.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2018-2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Annual 266 261 300 376 354 316 302
    5-Year Average 311.4 321.4 329.6
    Target (5-Year Average) 290.0 307.2 300.0
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    While non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries fluctuated year to year, the moving 5 year average has increased during the 2 years. The projected 5 year trend line based on a regression analysis is flat for the next 2 years. However the most recent 3 years of data (2015-2017)suggest the number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is increasing. Based on the projected trend line, the number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is expected to remain the same or decrease slightly during the planning period.
    • There were 345 Fatalities and Serious (A) Injuries in 2017, a single year decrease from 365 recorded in 2016.
    • The 2017 five-year moving average of 307.2 Fatalities and Serious (A) Injuries in 2017 increased from the 294.4 average number in 2016.
    • The most current preliminary data show 283 Fatalities and Serious (A) Injuries in 2018, a single year decrease from the 345 recorded in 2017. The 2018 five-year moving average value of 310.6 represents an increase from the previous year. This figure is also the highest five-year moving average recorded during the reporting period.
    • The projected five-year moving average for 2013-2017 predicts an increase in Fatalities and Serious (A) Injuries for the period for which this target will be set.
    • TARGET: Based on the trend line, the five-year moving average of non-motorist fatalities and serious (A) injuries is expected to remain relatively the same or increase slightly. The new target is proposed to maintain the current five-year moving average of 307.2 Fatalities and Serious (A) Injuries for the 2020 HSP planning period.

    If we meet this target, or fall below it, the goal in the 2017-2021 SHSP will be achieved.
    “Annual” Non-Motorist Fatalities & Serious Injuries.
    - The annual number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries fluctuated as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 372 non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in 2016.
    - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect a drop in fatalities and serious injuries. The drop is expected to bring the annual number down to 300-320, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.
    5-Year Moving Average.
    Non-Motorized Road Users are an emphasis area in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP. The strategies in the SHSP for this EA will help CT re
    - Unlike the “annual” projections of fatalities and injuries, the 5-year moving average for non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries is exhibiting a steady upward trend. The diverging trends yield a significant difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to increase to around 350, while the regression forecast is 300-320.
    TARGET:
    - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 target of 300 non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. High Priority for Pedestrian Safety. The safety of pedestrians and bicyclists became a major issue in CT when pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities unexpectedly jumped in 2014. While it was part of a larger national trend, it raised great concern in a State that is heavily urbanized, and walking and bicycling are essential modes of transport for many residents. These forms of active transportation are also increasingly popular forms of physical exercise. CTDOT adopted pedestrian safety as a high priority, and there are major programs to improve safety and expand opportunities for walking and bicycling. We remain committed to those goals.
    2. 5-year Moving Average Trendline is Problematic. Given CTDOT’s commitment to pedestrian safety, we are unwilling to accept a higher performance target of 350 fatalities and serious injuries that is projected using the 5-year moving average trendline.
    3. “Annual” Trendline is more acceptable. The projection using regression analysis suggests a value between 300-320 that we believe to be more likely than the 5-year average, and it is more acceptable given CTDOT’s goal of improving non-motorist safety.
    4. Aggressive Target. The CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and earlier.

    Non-Motorized Road Users is an emphasis area in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP. A 15% reduction in the number of fatalities and serious injuries is the stated goal in the SHSP which should be reached by implementing the strategies under this EA.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2018-2020 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

2019 Comments:

The targets for each of the safety performance measures support the overall goal in CT's latest SHSP of reducing fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads 15 percent by 2021. The SHSP is living document and the strategies can be updated if CT is not meeting the stated goals.

2021 Comments:

The performance targets and match those reported by CT's Highway Safety Office.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Connecticut 2019 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2015-2019 Target 2015-2019 Actual 2013-2017 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 274.0 279.4 277.8 No No No
Rate of Fatalities 0.873 0.884 0.884 No No
Number of Serious Injuries 1,574.0 1,510.4 1,547.0 Yes N/A
Rate of Serious Injuries 5.024 4.782 4.930 Yes N/A
Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries 290.0 329.6 311.4 No No

Updated: 05/26/2021
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