U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590
202-366-4000


Skip to content U.S. Department of Transportation/Federal Highway AdministrationU.S. Department of Transportation/Federal Highway Administration

Transportation Performance Management

 

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Connecticut

Select HSIP Report Year:

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Fatalities 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 270 304 281 293 249 299 298
    5-Year Average 279.4 285.2 284.0
    Target (5-Year Average) 270.0 270.0 270.0
  • Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

    "Annual” Fatalities. - The annual number of fatalities did fluctuate as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a downward trend since a high point of 304 fatalities in 2016. - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect the fatalities to drop to 260-270, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. - In contrast to the annual numbers, the 5-year moving average is exhibiting a continuing upward trend. The trendline suggests the 5-year moving average could be as much as 20-25 fatalities higher than the likely annual trend. (The annual trend reflects the influence of decreasing fatalities since 2016.) TARGET: - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality target of 270.0. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: 1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 260-290. 2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality levels experienced in 2015 and earlier. 3. CTDOT recognizes that 2019 had an exceptionally low number of fatalities. The unusually large reduction of 39 fatalities between 2018 and 2019 could be a statistical anomaly. The goal in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP for number of fatalities is combined with number of serious injuries. By 2021, the goal is to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads by 15%. It is hopeful that CT can reach this goal by implementing the strategies in each of the emphasis areas.
    “Annual”; Fatalities. The annual number of fatalities have fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a downward trend since a high point of 320 in 2010. The year 2020 has been an exception when most of the states in the U.S., including CT, saw an increase in traffic fatalities with a significant drop in traffic volume during the COVID-19 pandemic. A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2021 and 2022 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect the fatalities around 290, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. The 5-year moving average trendline shows the projected fatalities of around 290, similar to the projection with the annual numbers for the target year of 2022. TARGET: CTDOT is choosing to set a 2022 fatality target of 270. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: CTDOT has chosen to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality levels experienced in 2014 - 2015. There has been a decreasing trend in the number of fatalities for the past couple of years with safety related infrastructure projects as well as enforcement and educational campaigns. CTDOT recognizes that 2020 was an unusual year with the COVID-19 pandemic which resulted in higher than expected traffic fatalities when the traffic volume was significantly lower. This was an unexpected consequence observed in most of the states in the U.S.
    Annual Fatalities
    The annual number of fatalities has fluctuated from year to year. There was a declining trend until 2019 after a high point of 304 fatalities in the year 2016. However, the trend started to reverse in 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic. The years 2020 and 2021 saw a dramatic increase in fatalities in Connecticut and was observed at the national level as well. The 2021 preliminary data suggest 327 fatalities which is a 11% increase over 2020 in Connecticut.
    A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2022 and 2023 (our target year). Based on this regression analysis, the projected fatalities are around 317, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.

    5-Year Moving Average
    The 5-year moving average trendline shows the projected fatalities of around 292, lower than the projection with the annual numbers for the target year of 2023.

    TARGET
    CTDOT is choosing to maintain a 2023 fatality target of 270.0. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. CTDOT has chosen to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality levels experienced in 2014-2015 and 2019 before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    2. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there had been a decreasing trend in the number of fatalities for the past couple of years with safety related infrastructure projects as well as enforcement and educational campaigns. CTDOT recognizes that 2020 and 2021 were unusual years with the COVID-19 pandemic which resulted in higher-than-expected traffic fatalities. This was an unexpected consequence observed in most of the states in the U.S.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    Targets: 2020-2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

  • Fatality Rate
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 0.85 0.96 0.89 0.93 0.79 1.00 1.03
    5-Year Average 0.884 0.914 0.928
    Target (5-Year Average) 0.850 0.850 0.850
  • Basis for Fatality Rate Target

    - The annual fatality rate fluctuates as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a downward trend since a high point of 0.961 fatalities/100M VMT in 2016. - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis we should expect the fatality rates to drop to 0.835, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. - In contrast to the annual numbers, the 5-year moving average is exhibiting a continuing upward trend. The trendline for the 5-year moving average suggests the fatality rate could be up to 8% higher (or a rate of 0.910 versus 0.835) than rates suggested by the “annual” projection. (The annual trend reflects the influence of a decreasing fatality rate since 2016.) TARGET: - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality rate target of 0.850. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: 1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should fall between 0.835 and 0.910. 2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2015 and earlier. 3. CTDOT recognizes that 2019 had an exceptionally low fatality rate 0.807 fatalities/100M VMT. The unusually large rate reduction between 2018 and 2019 could be a statistical anomaly. CT does not have goals for fatality rate per HMVMT in its 2017-2021 SHSP.
    “Annual”; Fatality Rate. The annual fatality rate has fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data suggest a downward trend since a high point of 1.023 fatalities/100M VMT in 2010. A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2021 and 2022 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis we should expect the fatality rates to drop to 0.845, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. In contrast to the annual numbers, the 5-year moving average is exhibiting an upward trend. The trendline for the 5-year moving average suggests the fatality rate could be up to 11% higher (or a rate of 0.936 versus 0.845) than rates suggested by the “annual”; projection. (The annual trend reflects the influence of a decreasing fatality rate.) TARGET: CTDOT is choosing to set a 2022 fatality rate target of 0.850. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 0.845 and 0.936. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 - 2015 time period. CTDOT recognizes that 2020 was an unusual year with the COVID-19 pandemic where CT saw an increase in traffic fatalities with a significant drop on traffic volume. The 2020 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) data will not be available until later but it is highly likely that the fatality rate for 2020 will be higher than any of the previous years. The latest available NHTSA data for 2018 suggests that historically, Connecticut has one of the lowest fatality rates in the country. In 2018, it had a rate of 0.930 that was the 11th lowest rate nationwide. The national average of 1.13 was 20% higher. Despite having an already exceptionally low fatality rate, Connecticut is choosing to strive for an even lower rate by setting target at 0.850 for 2022. The goal is to return to 2014 - 2015 levels.
    Annual Fatality Rate
    The annual fatality rate has fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data suggest an upward trend since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, the VMT dropped by approximately 6% compared to 2019. However, the number of fatalities continued to increase reaching high points of 0.988 fatalities/100 million VMT in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Preliminary 2021 data suggest a further increase in the fatality rate.
    A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of fatalities in 2022 and 2023 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis the projected fatality rate is around 1.031, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.

    5-Year Moving Average
    In parallel with the annual numbers, the 5-year moving average is exhibiting an upward trend. The trendline for the 5-year moving average suggests the fatality rate could increase to 0.942 in 2023.

    TARGET
    CTDOT is choosing to maintain an aggressive target of 0.850 in 2023. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value may be between 0.942 and 1.031. These trends are higher due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of fatalities and the VMT.
    2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014-2015 and 2019 time periods before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    3. CTDOT recognizes that 2020 and 2021 were unusual years with the COVID-19 pandemic when Connecticut saw an increase in traffic fatalities even though the traffic volume dropped. This resulted in higher fatality rate in 2020 and the increase in fatalities has continued in 2021 which will likely push the fatality rate even higher.
    4. The latest available NHTSA data for 2019 suggest that historically, Connecticut has one of the lowest fatality rates in the country. In 2019, it had a fatality rate of 0.788 that was the 8th lowest rate nationwide, while the national fatality rate of 1.11 was 41% higher than Connecticut. In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Connecticut fatality rate increased to 0.988. Early estimates from NHTSA suggest a national fatality rate of 1.37 in 2020 which is 39% higher than Connecticut.[1] Connecticut is choosing to strive for a lower rate by setting a target at 0.850 for 2023. The goal is to return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.


    [1] NHTSA Report No. DOT HS 813 118. Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Sub-Categories in 2020


  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2020-2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Serious Injuries

  • Number of Serious Injuries 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 1,526 1,689 1,641 1,361 1,344 1,304 1,521
    5-Year Average 1,512.2 1,467.8 1,434.2
    Target (5-Year Average) 1,360.0 1,300.0 1,300.0
  • Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

    “Annual” Serious Injuries. - The annual number of serious injuries fluctuated as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 1689 serious injuries in 2016. - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of serious injuries in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect a large drop in serious injuries. The drop is expected to bring the annual number down to the 1260-1300 range, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. - Unlike the case for fatalities, the 5-year moving average for serious injuries is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a large difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to drop to around 1410, while the regression forecast is 1260-1300. TARGET: - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality target of 1360.0 serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: 1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 1260-1410. 2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and earlier. The goal in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP for number of fatalities is combined with number of serious injuries. By 2021, the goal is to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads by 15%. It is hopeful that CT can reach this goal by implementing the strategies in each of the emphasis areas.
    “Annual”; Serious Injuries. The annual number of serious injuries have fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 2,033 in 2010. A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of serious injuries in 2021 and 2022 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect large drop in serious injuries. The drop is expected to bring the annual number down to around 1,200, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. Unlike the case for fatalities, the 5-year moving average for serious injuries is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a large difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to drop to around 1,439, while the regression forecast is around 1,200. TARGET: CTDOT is choosing to set a 2022 target of 1,300 serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 1,203 - 1,439. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward serious injury levels experienced in 2014 or lower.
    Annual Serious Injuries
    The annual number of serious injuries has fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a downward trend since a high point of 1778 in 2012.
    A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of serious injuries in 2022 and 2023 (our target year). The preliminary data for 2021 suggest an uptick in the number of serious injuries but based on the regression analysis, we should expect a reduction in serious injuries. This decrease is expected to bring the annual number down to around 1350, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.

    5-Year Moving Average
    Unlike the case for fatalities, the 5-year moving average for serious injuries is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a small difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to fall to around 1399, while the regression forecast is around 1350.

    TARGET
    CTDOT is choosing to maintain a 2023 target of 1300.0 serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should fall closer to 1350-1399.
    CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward serious injury levels experienced in 2020 and lower. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 the number of fatalities increased but the number of serious injuries decreased.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2020-2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

  • Rate of Serious Injuries
    (per 100 million VMT)
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 4.83 5.34 5.21 4.31 4.25 4.37 5.25
    5-Year Average 4.788 4.696 4.678
    Target (5-Year Average) 4.300 4.300 4.300
  • Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

    “Annual” Serious Injury Rates. - The annual serious injury rates fluctuated as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 5.34 serious injuries/100 million VMT in 2016. - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely serious injury rates in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect large a drop in the serious injury rates. The drop is expected to bring the annual rate down to 3.90-4.10, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. - Unlike the case for fatality rates, the 5-year moving average for serious injury rates is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a large difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to drop to around 4.50, while the regression forecast is 3.90-4.10. TARGET: - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 fatality target of 4.30 serious injuries/100M VMT. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: 1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 3.90-4.50. 2. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and earlier. CT does not have goals for serious injury rate per HMVMT in its 2017-2021 SHSP.
    “Annual”; Serious Injury Rates. The annual serious injury rates have fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 6.400 serious injuries/100 million VMT in 2010. A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely serious injury rates in 2021 and 2022 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect a large drop in the serious injury rates. The drop is expected to bring the annual rate down to 3.700 – 4.000, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. Unlike the case for fatality rates, the 5-year moving average for serious injury rates is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a large difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to drop to around 4.582, while the regression forecast is 3.700 – 4.000. TARGET: CTDOT is choosing to set a 2022 target of 4.300 serious injuries/100M VMT. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should lie fall between 3.700 – 4.600. CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 or lower. CTDOT recognizes that 2020 was an unusual year with the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a decrease in the number of serious injuries and a significant drop in the traffic volume. The 2020 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) data will not be available until later but it is highly likely that the serious injury rate for 2020 will be higher than the past couple of years due to the drop in traffic volume.
    Annual Serious Injury Rates
    The annual serious injury rates have fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data suggest a downward trend since a high point of 5.686 serious injuries/100 million VMT in 2012.
    A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely serious injury rates in 2022 and 2023 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect a continuing reduction in serious injury rates. This decrease is expected to bring the annual rate down to 4.414-4.495, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.

    5-Year Moving Average
    Unlike the case for fatality rates, the 5-year moving average for serious injury rates is exhibiting a steady downward trend. Nonetheless, there is still a small difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to fall to around 4.495, while the regression forecast is 4.414.

    TARGET
    CTDOT is choosing to maintain a 2023 target of 4.300 serious injuries/100 million VMT. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:
    1. The 2 trendlines in the graph suggest the actual value should fall between 4.414-4.495, but CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2018 and lower.
    CTDOT recognizes that 2020 and 2021 were unusual years with the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a decrease in the number of serious injuries likely due to a reduction in traffic volume in 2020 whereas, the preliminary data for 2021 suggest an increase in the number of serious injuries with the traffic volume returning closer to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic times.

  • Data Sources:
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Report
    VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
    Targets: 2020-2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

  • Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
    and Serious Injuries
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Annual 300 376 354 316 305 264 270
    5-Year Average 330.2 323.0 301.8
    Target (5-Year Average) 300.0 280.0 280.0
  • Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

    “Annual” Non-Motorist Fatalities & Serious Injuries. - The annual number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries fluctuated as expected from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 372 non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in 2016. - A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in 2020 and 2021 (our target year). Based on the regression analysis, we should expect a drop in fatalities and serious injuries. The drop is expected to bring the annual number down to 300-320, but there is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. Non-Motorized Road Users are an emphasis area in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP. The strategies in the SHSP for this EA will help CT re - Unlike the “annual” projections of fatalities and injuries, the 5-year moving average for non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries is exhibiting a steady upward trend. The diverging trends yield a significant difference between the 5-year average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year average is expected to increase to around 350, while the regression forecast is 300-320. TARGET: - CTDOT is choosing to set a 2021 target of 300 non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: 1. High Priority for Pedestrian Safety. The safety of pedestrians and bicyclists became a major issue in CT when pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities unexpectedly jumped in 2014. While it was part of a larger national trend, it raised great concern in a State that is heavily urbanized, and walking and bicycling are essential modes of transport for many residents. These forms of active transportation are also increasingly popular forms of physical exercise. CTDOT adopted pedestrian safety as a high priority, and there are major programs to improve safety and expand opportunities for walking and bicycling. We remain committed to those goals. 2. 5-year Moving Average Trendline is Problematic. Given CTDOT’s commitment to pedestrian safety, we are unwilling to accept a higher performance target of 350 fatalities and serious injuries that is projected using the 5-year moving average trendline. 3. “Annual” Trendline is more acceptable. The projection using regression analysis suggests a value between 300-320 that we believe to be more likely than the 5-year average, and it is more acceptable given CTDOT’s goal of improving non-motorist safety. 4. Aggressive Target. The CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the State back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and earlier. Non-Motorized Road Users is an emphasis area in CT's 2017-2021 SHSP. A 15% reduction in the number of fatalities and serious injuries is the stated goal in the SHSP which should be reached by implementing the strategies under this EA.
    “Annual”; Non-Motorist Fatalities & Serious Injuries. The annual number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries have fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data also suggest a major downward trend since a high point of 372 in 2016. A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in 2021 and 2022 (our target year). There is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection. 5-Year Moving Average. Unlike the “annual”; projections of fatalities and injuries, the 5-year moving average for non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries is exhibiting a steady upward trend since 2015. However, the 2020 preliminary data is encouraging and suggests a small drop. The diverging trends yield a significant difference between the 5-year moving average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year moving average is expected to increase to around 350.6, while the regression forecast is 325-330. TARGET: CTDOT is choosing to set a 2022 target of 280.0 non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following: High Priority for Pedestrian Safety. The safety of pedestrians became a major issue in Connecticut when pedestrian fatalities unexpectedly jumped in 2014. While it was part of a larger national trend, it raised great concern in a state that is heavily urbanized and walking and bicycling are essential modes of transport for many residents. These forms of active transportation are also increasingly popular forms of physical exercise. CTDOT adopted pedestrian safety as a high priority, and it has a major program to improve safety and expand opportunities for walking and bicycling. Several safety-related infrastructure projects were undertaken from 2015 – 2020 to improve the conspicuity of traffic control devices for non-motorized road users including but not limited to marked crosswalk enhancements and other signing. Connecticut remains committed to these goals. 5-year Moving Average Trendline is Problematic. Given CTDOT's commitment to pedestrian safety, we are unwilling to accept the higher a higher performance target of 350 fatalities and serious injuries that is projected using the 5-year moving average trendline. “Annual”; Trendline More Acceptable. The projection using regression analysis suggests a value between 300-330 that we believe to be more likely than the 5-year average, and it is more acceptable given CTDOT's goal to improve non-motorist safety. Aggressive Target. The CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and lower.
    Annual Non-Motorist Fatalities and Serious Injuries
    The annual number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries has fluctuated from year to year, but the annual data suggest a downward trend since a high point of 372 in 2016.
    A time series regression analysis was conducted to project the likely number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in 2022 and 2023 (our target year). The regression analysis, suggest a small increase to around 306.4-308.8 similar to the 2019 pre-COVID-19 pandemic number. There is a significant amount of statistical variance around the projection.

    5-Year Moving Average
    Similar to the annual projection, the 5-year moving average for non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries is projecting an increase although there is a significant difference between the 5-year moving average trendline and the annual regression analysis forecast. The 5-year moving average is expected to increase to around 326.0, while the regression forecast is 308.8 for the year 2023.

    TARGET
    CTDOT is choosing to maintain a 2023 target of 280.0 non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries. The selection is based on careful consideration of the following:

    1. High Priority for Pedestrian Safety. The safety of pedestrians became a major issue in Connecticut when pedestrian fatalities unexpectedly jumped in 2014. While it was part of a larger national trend, it raised great concern in a state that is heavily urbanized and where walking and bicycling are essential modes of transport for many residents. These forms of active transportation are also increasingly popular forms of physical exercise. CTDOT adopted pedestrian safety as a high priority and has a major program to improve safety and expand opportunities for walking and bicycling. Several safety-related infrastructure projects were undertaken from 2015-2021 to improve the conspicuity of traffic control devices for non-motorized road users including but not limited to marked crosswalk enhancements and other signing. Connecticut remains committed to these goals.

    In addition, there were several changes to the non-motorist Safety Laws in Connecticut in 2021 with the Connecticut House Bill No. 5429, which included the following:

    Pedestrian Law – § 1 — YIELDING TO PEDESTRIANS AT CROSSWALKS: Expands the circumstances under which drivers must yield to pedestrians at uncontrolled crosswalks
    Dooring Law – § 4 — DOORING: Prohibits causing physical contact with moving traffic by (1) opening a vehicle door or (2) leaving it open longer than necessary to load or unload passengers
    Speed Limit Law – §§ 6-12 — LOCAL ROAD SPEED LIMITS AND PEDESTRIAN SAFETY ZONES: Allows municipalities to establish speed limits on local roads without OSTA approval and allows for the establishment of pedestrian safety zones with speed limits as low as 20 mph in downtown districts, community centers, and areas around hospitals

    2. Aggressive Target. The CTDOT wants to set an aggressive target that will move the state back toward fatality rate levels experienced in 2014 and lower.

  • Data Sources:
    Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
    Serious Injuries: 2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Report
    Targets: 2020-2022 Connecticut HSIP Annual Reports


Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

The performance targets and match those reported by CT's Highway Safety Office.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Connecticut 2021 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure 2017-2021 Target 2017-2021 Actual 2015-2019 Baseline Met Target? Better Than Baseline? Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities 270.0 284.0 279.4 No No No
Rate of Fatalities 0.850 0.928 0.884 No No
Number of Serious Injuries 1,360.0 1,434.2 1,512.2 No Yes
Rate of Serious Injuries 4.300 4.678 4.788 No Yes
Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries 300.0 301.8 330.2 No Yes

Updated: 05/18/2023
Federal Highway Administration | 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE | Washington, DC 20590 | 202-366-4000