State Highway Safety Report (2019) - Florida - State - Reporting - Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2019) - Florida

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program’s (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/reports/.

Number of Fatalities

Number of Fatalities	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Annual	2,403	2,494	2,938	3,176	3,116	3,135	3,183
5-Year Average					2,825.4	2,971.8	3,109.6
Target (5-Year Average)							0.0	0.0	0.0

Basis for Number of Fatalities Target
Based on statistical forecasting, the five year rolling average for total fatalities on Florida's roads is forecast to be between 2,797 and 3,117 in 2019. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2017 to predict probable outcomes for 2018 and 2019.

Florida's target for fatalities is zero in 2019.

While the data forecast indicates Florida's five year rolling average for fatalities could continue to trend upward in 2018 and 2019, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the data forecast and ultimately reduce the number of traffic fatalities. An interim performance measure is required by our federal funding agencies in order to receive federal funding. We firmly believe that every life counts and although our target for fatalities is zero in 2019, Florida has forecast an interim performance measure of 3,117 in order to satisfy the federal requirement.

Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total fatalities on Florida’s roads is forecasted to be between 2,877 and 3,175 in 2020. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2018 to predict probable outcomes for 2019 and 2020.

Florida’s target for fatalities is zero in 2020.

While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for fatalities could continue to trend upward in 2019 and 2020, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the data forecast and ultimately reduce the number of traffic fatalities.

Target: Florida’s target for fatalities is zero in 2021.

Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total fatalities on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 3,116 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021.

Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for fatalities could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for fatalities could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of traffic fatalities.

Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.
Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
Targets: 2018-2020 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Annual	1.25	1.24	1.42	1.47	1.42	1.41	1.41
5-Year Average					1.360	1.392	1.426
Target (5-Year Average)							0.000	0.000	0.000

Basis for Fatality Rate Target
Based on statistical forecasting, the five year rolling average for fatality rate per 100 million Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) on Florida's roads is forecast to be between 1.08 and 1.63 in 2019. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2017 to predict probable outcomes for 2018 and 2019.

Florida's target for fatality rate per 100 million VMT is zero in 2019.

While the data forecast indicates Florida's five year rolling average for fatality rate per 100 million VMT could continue to trend upward in 2018 and 2019, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the data forecast and ultimately reduce the fatality rate per 100 million VMT. An interim performance measure is required by our federal funding agencies in order to receive federal funding. We firmly believe that every life counts and although our target for fatality rate per 100 million VMT is zero in 2019, Florida has forecast an interim performance measure of 1.63 in order to satisfy the federal requirement.

Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for fatality rate per 100 million VMT (vehicle miles travelled) on Florida’s roads is forecasted to be between 1.10 and 1.60 in 2020. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2018 to predict probable outcomes for 2019 and 2020.

Florida’s target for fatality rate per 100 million VMT is zero in 2020.

While data forecast indicates Florida’s fatality rate per 100 million VMT will trend downward in 2019 and 2020, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance this downward trend and ultimately reduce the fatality rate per 100 million VMT.

Target: Florida’s target for fatality rate is zero in 2021.

Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for fatality rate per 100M VMT on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 1.37 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021.

Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the fatality rate per 100M VMT.

Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.
Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
Targets: 2018-2020 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

Number of Serious Injuries

Number of Serious Injuries	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Annual	20,226	20,912	21,551	21,645	20,380	19,196	18,063
5-Year Average					20,942.8	20,736.8	20,167.0
Target (5-Year Average)							0.0	0.0	0.0

Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target
Based on statistical forecasting, the five year rolling average for total serious injuries on Florida's roads is forecast to be between 19,340 and 21,107 in 2019. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2017 to predict probable outcomes for 2018 and 2019.

Florida's target for serious injuries is zero in 2019.

The data forecast indicates Florida's five year rolling average for serious injuries could continue to trend downward in 2018 and 2019. The FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend in the number of serious injuries on Florida's roads. An interim performance measure is required by our federal funding agencies in order to receive federal funding. We firmly believe that every life counts and although our target for serious injuries is zero in 2019, Florida has forecast an interim performance measure of 21,107 in order to satisfy the federal requirement.

Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for serious injuries on Florida’s roads is forecasted to be between 17,480 and 19,123 in 2020. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2018 to predict probable outcomes for 2019 and 2020.

Florida’s target for serious injuries is zero in 2020.

The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average of serious injuries will continue to trend downward in 2019 and 2020. The FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance this downward trend in the number of serious injuries on Florida’s roads.

Target: Florida’s target for serious injuries is zero in 2021.

Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total serious injuries on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 18,187 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021.

Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of serious injuries.

Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.
Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2020 Florida HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 2018-2020 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Annual	10.50	10.40	10.41	10.04	9.31	8.65	7.97
5-Year Average					10.132	9.762	9.276
Target (5-Year Average)							0.000	0.000	0.000

Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target
Based on statistical forecasting, the five year rolling average for total serious injury rate per 100 million VMT on Florida's roads is forecast to be between 7.789 and 10.846 in 2019. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2017 to predict probable outcomes for 2018 and 2019.

Florida's target for serious injury rate per 100 million VMT is zero in 2019.

The data forecast indicates Florida's five year rolling average for serious injury rate per 100 million VMT could continue to trend downward in 2018 and 2019. The FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend in the serious injury rate per 100 million VMT on Florida's roads. An interim performance measure is required by our federal funding agencies in order to receive federal funding. We firmly believe that every life counts and although our target for serious injury rate per 100 million VMT is zero in 2019, Florida has forecast an interim performance measure of 10.846 in order to satisfy the federal requirement.

Based on statistical forecasting the five-year rolling average for serious injury rate per 100 million VMT (vehicle miles travelled) on Florida’s roads is forecasted to be between 6.82 and 9.44 in 2020. This forecast was made by using current state data from 2007 to 2017 to predict probable outcomes for 2019 and 2020.

Florida’s target for serious injury rate per million VMT is zero in 2020.

While the data forecast indicates Florida’s serious injury rate per 100 million VMT could continue to trend downward in 2019 and 2020. The FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance this downward trend in the number of serious injuries on Florida’s roads.

Target: Florida’s target for serious injury rate is zero in 2021.

Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for serious injury rate per 100M VMT on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 6.73 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021.

Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the serious injury rate per 100M VMT.

Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.
Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2020 Florida HSIP Annual Report
VMT: 2013-2019 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
Targets: 2018-2020 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Annual	3,163	3,317	3,398	3,340	3,216	3,271	3,206
5-Year Average					3,286.8	3,308.4	3,286.2
Target (5-Year Average)							0.0	0.0	0.0

Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target
Based on statistical forecasting, the five year rolling average for non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries on Florida's roads is forecast to be between 3,117 and 3,801 in 2019. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2009 to 2017 to predict probable outcomes for 2018 and 2019.

Florida's target for non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is zero in 2019.

The data forecast indicates Florida's five year rolling average for non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries could continue to tend downward in 2018 and 2019. The FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance this downward trend in non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. An interim performance measure is required by our federal funding agencies in order to receive federal funding. We firmly believe that every life counts and although our target for non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is zero in 2019, Florida has forecast an interim performance measure of 3,801 in order to satisfy the federal requirement.

Based on statistical forecasting, number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries on Florida’s roads is forecasted to be between 2,929 and 3,283 in 2020. This forecast was made by combining FARS data with current state data from 2007 to 2018 to predict probable outcomes for 2019 and 2020.

Florida’s target for number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is zero in 2020.

While the data forecast indicates Florida’s number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries could continue to trend downward in 2019 and 2020, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance this downward trend the number of pedestrian fatalities.

Target: Florida’s target for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries is zero in 2021.

Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 3,209 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021.

Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding and included in this Highway Safety Plan will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of non-motorized fatal and serious injuries.

Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.
Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2013-2018 Final FARS, 2019 FARS Annual Report File
Serious Injuries: 2020 Florida HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 2018-2020 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2019 Comments:

Florida shares the national traffic safety vision, "Toward Zero Deaths," and formally adopted our own version of the national vision, "Driving Down Fatalities," in 2012. FDOT and its traffic safety partners are committed to eliminating fatalities and reducing serious injuries with the understanding that the death of any person is unacceptable and based on that, zero deaths is our safety performance target. This target is consistent throughout our Strategic Highway Safety Plan, Highway Safety Improvement Program and Highway Safety Plan. Florida’s data forecasts have been established using an ARIMA Hybrid Regression Model (0, 1,1)(2,0,0)(12) with VMT. Nine independent variables were tested to assess correlations; only Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) and gas consumption have relatively high correlations with fatalities and serious injuries and of these two variables only VMT was useful in predicting future fatalities and serious injuries. The first three performance measures (number of fatalities, number of serious injuries, and fatality rate per 100M VMT) have been forecasted based on a five year rolling average and the remaining performance measures will be forecasted annually. The forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are based on monthly data from 2005 through 2016 using statistical forecasting methodologies. Forecasts for serious injury rate per 100 million VMT and non-motorist fatal and serious injuries have been established using the AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm. [Source: FDOT Highway Safety Plan, 2018]

2020 Comments:

Florida shares the national traffic safety vision, “Toward Zero Deaths,” and formally adopted our own version of the national vision, “Driving Down Fatalities,” in 2012. FDOT and its traffic safety partners are committed to eliminating fatalities and reducing serious injuries with the understanding that the death of any person is unacceptable and based on that, zero deaths is our safety performance target. This target is consistent throughout our Strategic Highway Safety Plan, Highway Safety Improvement Program and Highway Safety Plan.

2021 Comments:

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.

Florida 2019 Safety Performance Target Assessment
Performance Measure	2015-2019 Target	2015-2019 Actual	2013-2017 Baseline	Met Target?	Better Than Baseline?	Met or Made Significant Progress?
Number of Fatalities	0.0	3,109.6	2,825.4	No	No	No
Rate of Fatalities	0.000	1.426	1.360	No	No
Number of Serious Injuries	0.0	20,167.0	20,942.8	No	Yes
Rate of Serious Injuries	0.000	9.276	10.132	No	Yes
Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	0.0	3,286.2	3,286.8	No	Yes

Transportation Performance Management