Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Florida

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	2,938	3,176	3,116	3,135	3,185	3,329	3,738
  5-Year Average					3,110.0	3,188.2	3,300.6
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.0	0.0	0.0

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Target: Florida’s target for fatalities is zero in 2021. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total fatalities on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 3,116 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for fatalities could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for fatalities could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of traffic fatalities. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for fatalities is zero in 2022. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total fatalities on Florida's roads is forecasted as 3,233 in 2022. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2020 to predict probable outcomes for 2021 and 2022. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for fatalities could trend upward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for fatalities could trend upward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the upward trend to ultimately reduce the number of traffic fatalities. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for fatalities is zero in 2023.
  Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total fatalities on Florida's roads is forecasted as 3,445 in 2023. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2021 to predict probable outcomes for 2022 and 2023.
  Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida five-year rolling average for fatalities could slowly trend upward in 2022 and 2023. The FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute the Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida five-year rolling average for fatalities could slowly trend upward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the upward trend to ultimately reduce the number of traffic fatalities.
  Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with VMT, gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida GDP – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.42	1.47	1.42	1.41	1.41	1.60	1.72
  5-Year Average					1.426	1.462	1.512
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.000	0.000	0.000

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Target: Florida’s target for fatality rate is zero in 2021. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for fatality rate per 100M VMT on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 1.37 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the fatality rate per 100M VMT. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for fatality rate is zero in 2022. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for fatality rate per 100M VMT on Florida's roads is forecasted as 1.57 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2020 to predict probable outcomes for 2021 and 2022. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend upward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the upward trend to ultimately reduce the fatality rate per 100M VMT. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for fatality rate is zero in 2023.
  Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for fatality rate per 100M VMT on Florida roads is forecasted as 1.53 in 2023. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2021 to predict probable outcomes for 2022 and 2023.
  Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida five-year rolling average for fatality rate could slowly trend upward in 2022 and 2023. The FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute the Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida five-year rolling average for fatality rate could trend upward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will mitigate the upward trend to ultimately reduce the fatality rate per 100 million VMT.
  Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with VMT, gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida GDP – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	21,551	21,645	20,380	19,196	18,063	15,614	16,878
  5-Year Average					20,167.0	18,979.6	18,026.2
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.0	0.0	0.0

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Target: Florida’s target for serious injuries is zero in 2021. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total serious injuries on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 18,187 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of serious injuries. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for serious injuries is zero in 2022. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total serious injuries on Florida's roads is forecasted as 16,724 in 2022. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2020 to predict probable outcomes for 2021 and 2022. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for serious injuries could trend downward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of serious injuries. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for serious injuries is zero in 2023.
  Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for total serious injuries on Florida roads is forecasted as 16,330 in 2023. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2021 to predict probable outcomes for 2022 and 2023.
  Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida five-year rolling average for serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2022 and 2023. The FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute the Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to continue preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida five-year rolling average for fatalities could trend downward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will continue the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of serious injuries.
  Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with VMT, gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida GDP – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Florida HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	10.41	10.04	9.31	8.65	7.97	7.50	7.76
  5-Year Average					9.276	8.694	8.238
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.000	0.000	0.000

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Target: Florida’s target for serious injury rate is zero in 2021. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for serious injury rate per 100M VMT on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 6.73 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the serious injury rate per 100M VMT. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for serious injury rate is zero in 2022. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for serious injury rate per 100M VMT on Florida's roads is forecasted as 7.95 in 2022. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2021 and 2022. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the serious injury rate per 100M VMT. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for serious injury rate is zero in 2023.
  Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for serious injury rate per 100M VMT on Florida's roads is forecasted as 7.64 in 2023. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2021 to predict probable outcomes for 2022 and 2023.
  Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for serious injury rate could slowly trend downward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the serious injury rate per 100M VMT.
  Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Florida HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	3,398	3,340	3,216	3,271	3,207	2,910	3,280
  5-Year Average					3,286.4	3,188.8	3,176.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.0	0.0	0.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Target: Florida’s target for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries is zero in 2021. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries on Florida’s roads is forecasted as 3,209 in 2021. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2009 to 2019 to predict probable outcomes for 2020 and 2021. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida’s five year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida’s five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2020 and 2021, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding and included in this Highway Safety Plan will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of non-motorized fatal and serious injuries. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  Target: Florida's target for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries is zero in 2022. Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries on Florida's roads is forecasted as 3,077 in 2022. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2020 to predict probable outcomes for 2021 and 2022. Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2021 and 2022, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding and included in this Highway Safety Plan will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of non-motorized fatal and serious injuries. Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values. Florida shares the national traffic safety vision, “Toward Zero Deaths,”; and formally adopted our own version of the national vision, “Driving Down Fatalities,”; in 2012. FDOT and its traffic safety partners are committed to eliminating fatalities and reducing serious injuries with the understanding that the death of any person is unacceptable and based on that, zero deaths is our safety performance target. This target is consistent throughout our Strategic Highway Safety Plan, Highway Safety Improvement Program and Highway Safety Plan.

  Target: Florida's target for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries is zero in 2023.
  Annual Performance Forecast: Based on statistical forecasting, the five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries on Florida's roads is forecasted as 3,179 in 2023. This forecast was made with historical and current state data from 2005 to 2020 to predict probable outcomes for 2022 and 2023.
  Strategy: The data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office intends to execute Highway Safety Improvement Program projects to increase preventative applications and countermeasures consistent with traffic safety improvement. While the data forecast indicates Florida's five-year rolling average for non-motorized fatal and serious injuries could slowly trend downward in 2022 and 2023, the FDOT State Safety Office expects the projects chosen for funding and included in this Highway Safety Plan will enhance the downward trend to ultimately reduce the number of non-motorized fatal and serious injuries.
  Justification: Forecasts were made using a three-step analytical approach consisting of exploratory analysis, development of pre-forecast to choose a preferred model for each measure, and development of the final forecast. The exploratory analysis tested multiple independent variables (in addition to the stratification of the dependent safety measure variable into two categories) to assess statistical association. The results showed that fatalities are statistically correlated with vehicles miles of travel (VMT), gas consumption, vehicle registration and Florida gross domestic product (GDP) – with weak to moderate explanatory power. While the exploratory analysis identified correlations with multiple independent variables – the pre-forecasting process indication that most of the independent variables were not useful in estimating future fatalities or serious injuries. An ARIMA model was ultimately chosen which uses past values of the dependent variable as independent variables (e.g., fatalities) and year-to-year difference in the values to forecast future values.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Florida HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Florida HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

Florida shares the national traffic safety vision, “Toward Zero Deaths,” and formally adopted our own version of the national vision, “Driving Down Fatalities,” in 2012. FDOT and its traffic safety partners are committed to eliminating fatalities and reducing serious injuries with the understanding that the death of any person is unacceptable and based on that, zero deaths is our safety performance target. This target is consistent throughout our Strategic Highway Safety Plan, Highway Safety Improvement Program and Highway Safety Plan.

2023 Comments:

Florida shares the national traffic safety vision, "Toward Zero Deaths," and formally adopted our own version of the national vision, "Driving Down Fatalities," in 2012. FDOT and its traffic safety partners are committed to eliminating fatalities and reducing serious injuries with the understanding that the death of any person is unacceptable and based on that, zero deaths is our safety performance target. This target is consistent throughout our Strategic Highway Safety Plan, Highway Safety Improvement Program and Highway Safety Plan.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.