Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Indiana

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	817	829	916	860	810	897	932
  5-Year Average					846.4	862.4	883.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							817.3	876.0	894.2

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Data Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System 2017 FARS Final File Count 2018 FARS Annual Report File 2019 Indiana State Police FARS Report For the purpose of comparison to the SHSO annual report, the 5 year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2021 value of (832) as described in the following methodology. INDOT calculates this performance target by using employment predictions and a model that uses employment data to predict fatalities. "After analyzing numerous methods of predicting future fatality totals, it was determined that the most consistently accurate results were achieved by predicting the number of fatalities using the predicted employment percentage. (The employment percentage is the inverse of the unemployment percentage) The predicted employment percentage would typically be calculated using a linear projection based on the previous two years of data. However, it is known that 2020 will have much lower employment percent than that prediction based on the early numbers, so a lower percentage was chosen than the linear method would have calculated. For 2020 an employment percentage of 86 was thoughtfully selected. In order to calculate the number of fatalities using the predicted employment percent, a model was built using the Microsoft Excel’s Solver function. The previous 6 years of predicted employment data were used in the Solver function. The Solver function then produced coefficients for the model that provide the best fit over the previous 6 years. This model is in the form of Y=A*X^2+B*X+C where Y is the predicted fatalities and X is the predicted employment percentage which was calculated as described previously. In this case, A=0.092035868, B=0, and C=1.002103772.”

  Data Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System 2018 FARS Final File Count 2019 FARS Annual Report File 2020 Indiana State Police ARIES Database Safety performance targets result from analysis of trends in crashes of the stated severity rather than goals themselves. The information on expected performance acts as a benchmark to measure progress or indicate where changes are needed to improve program effectiveness going forward. The safety targets therefore do not represent goals but rather expected results due to current conditions. For the purpose of comparison to the SHSO's annual HSP report to NHTSA, the 5 year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2022 value of (920.4) as described in the following methodology. INDOT calculates this performance target by using a linear regression model based on the number of fatalities in previous years to predict fatalities. It was determined that analysis methods used during the previous year would not be as effective for this submission due to the unexpected events of 2020. Therefore, a return to a simple linear regression model was chosen to predict fatalities. In order to predict the number of fatalities, this model would use the previous 5 years of data. However, the 2020 data was determined to be an outlier so that year was excluded from the calculation. The excel functions of SLOPE () and INTERCEPT () were used to generate the predictive equation. The predictive equation is of the form FATALITIES=YEAR*SLOPE()+INTERCEPT(). This predicted total was then adjusted upwards by 5% to account for any unexpected variances.

  The performance target for traffic fatalities is one of the three targets that must match Indiana Criminal Justice Institute (ICJI) Traffic Safety Office reporting to NHTSA with the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) as the state planning agency for the State Strategic Highway Safety Plan under requirements of the FAST Act under 23 U.S.C. 402(b)(1)(f)(v). INDOT calculates this performance target by using analysis of crash trends, employment predictions and a model that uses employment data to predict fatalities.
  It was determined that analysis methods used during the previous year will be continued for this submittal. Use of a simple linear regression model was chosen to predict fatalities. To predict the number of fatalities, this model would use the previous 5 years of data. The excel functions of SLOPE () and INTERCEPT () were used to generate the predictive equation. The predictive equation is of the form FATALITIES=YEAR*SLOPE () +INTERCEPT (). This predicted total was then adjusted upwards by 5% to account for any unexpected variances. The target creates a baseline for measurement of objectives established in the revised Indiana SHSP.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.04	1.00	1.12	1.05	0.98	1.17	1.19
  5-Year Average					1.038	1.064	1.102
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.006	1.076	1.088

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Data Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System The NHTSA calculated and reported values through 2018. For the purpose of comparison to the SHSO annual report, the 5-year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2021 value of (1.057) as described in the following methodology. Estimated/Predicted values for 2020-2021: The FHWA approved VMT for 2018 was significantly lower than the INDOT reported value therefore an adjustment was made to the projection of annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) growth rate estimates. For 2019 a growth of 1.00% was used however for 2020 a reduction of 7.4% is assumed due to effects of the Covid 19 pandemic. For 2021 the assumed growth rate returned to 1.0%. INDOT’s Technical Planning Support & Programming Division estimates VMT by averaging the last 5 years of Annual Growth Rates for each of five factor groups and then averaging them. The Office of Traffic Safety uses those predicted annual estimates along with estimated fatalities then evaluated with the projected VMTs for their respective future years to produce predicted fatality rates per 100-million VMT.

  Data Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) The NHTSA calculated and reported FARS values 2016 through 2019. 2020 - Indiana State Police ARIES Database FHWA reported VMT values for 2016 - 2019 INDOT estimated VMT values for 2020 and 2021 Safety performance targets result from analysis of trends in crashes of the stated severity rather than goals themselves. The information on expected performance acts as a benchmark to measure progress or indicate where changes are needed to improve program effectiveness going forward. The safety targets therefore do not represent goals but rather expected results due to current conditions. For the purpose of comparison to the SHSO annual report, the 5-year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2022 value of (1.110) as described in the following methodology. Estimated/Predicted values for 2017-2021: The FHWA approved VMT for 2018 was significantly lower than the INDOT reported value therefore an adjustment was made to the projection of annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) growth rate estimates. For 2018 a growth of 1.0% was used however for 2020 a reduction of 7.4% is assumed due to effects of the Covid 19 pandemic. For 2021 the assumed VMT was estimated to be 1% below 2019 with the assumed growth rate at 1.0%. INDOT's Technical Planning Support & Programming Division estimates VMT by averaging the last 5 years of Annual Growth Rates for each of five factor groups and then averaging them. The Office of Traffic Safety uses those predicted annual estimates along with estimated fatalities then evaluated with the projected VMTs for their respective future years to produce predicted fatality rates per 100-million VMT.

  The performance target for the rate of traffic fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled is one of the three targets that must match ICJI and INDOT reporting due to the FAST Act (23 U.S.C. 402(b)(1)(f)(v)). The predicted annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) for each of the most recent five years is estimated to vary from past slow growth patterns due to the 2020 economic shutdown, largely due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and subsequent rebound. As a result, projected VMT for 2020 was predicted to reduce by 7.20% from the 2019 VMT then grew by 9.65% in 2021. The target creates a baseline for measurement of objectives established in the revised Indiana SHSP.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	3,434	3,505	3,388	3,210	3,062	3,302	3,515
  5-Year Average					3,319.8	3,293.4	3,295.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							3,311.4	2,998.2	3,348.1

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Data Source: Automated Reporting Information Exchange System (ARIES) 2004 - 2013 As reported count of “Incapacitating Injuries” 2014 - 2019 Estimated count amounting to 7.2% of all non-fatal injuries For the purpose of comparison to the SHSO annual report, the 5-year average performance target for Number of Serious Injuries listed above is based on a projected calendar 2021 value of (3,427) as described in the following methodology. Baseline projections are calculated using all injury counts and applying the 7.2% adjustment to calculate yearly Suspected Serious Injury counts for years 2017 – 2019. An equation is used to generate predictive values for 2020 and 2021. This was accomplished by the software built into Microsoft Excel for applying a logarithmic trend line equation with a forward forecast of two years. The equation is of the form [y = A*ln(x) + B]. The resulting equation is then adjusted to more closely fit recent peak years by shifting the value of B to produce a matching value for the recorded peak.

  Data Source: Automated Reporting Information Exchange System (ARIES) 2004 - 2013 As reported count of “Incapacitating Injuries”; 2014 - 2019 Estimated count amounting to 7.2% of all non-fatal injuries 2020 Direct count of Suspected Serious Injuries from ARIES Database Safety performance targets result from analysis of trends in crashes of the stated severity rather than goals themselves. The information on expected performance acts as a benchmark to measure progress or indicate where changes are needed to improve program effectiveness going forward. The safety targets therefore do not represent goals but rather expected results due to current conditions. For the purpose of comparison to the SHSO's annual HSP report to NHTSA, the 5-year average performance target for Number of Serious Injuries listed above is based on a projected calendar 2022 value of (3019.0) as described in the following methodology. Baseline projections are calculated using all injury counts and applying the 7.2% adjustment to calculate yearly Suspected Serious Injury counts for years 2016 – 2019. An equation is used to generate predictive values for 2021 and 2022. In order to predict the number of serious injuries, this model would use the previous 5 years of data. However, the 2020 data was determined to be an outlier so that year was excluded from the calculation. The excel functions of SLOPE () and INTERCEPT () were used to generate the predictive equation. The predictive equation is of the form SERIOIUS_INJ=YEAR*SLOPE()+INTERCEPT(). This predicted total was then adjusted upwards by 5% to account for any unexpected variances.

  The performance target for the number of Serious Injuries is one of the three targets that must match ICJI and INDOT due to the FAST Act (23 U.S.C. 402(b)(1)(f)(v)).
  The Indiana Crash database recently underwent a change that now allows a direct count of the 7 types of injuries defined by the MMUCC 4th edition. The change by Indiana in crash reporting recently confirmed by FHWA as compliant with the establish rule. Starting with 2020, INDOT directly counts suspected serious injuries from the 7 injury types. In the prior years, 2017- 2019 the former interim method used an estimate 7.2% of all injuries. The result of the count was a discontinuity in the previously established downward trend line. The change was deemed minor, so the previous Slope and Intercept trend line was extended to calculate the 5-year target value in a similar manner to what was described for the number of fatalities. The target creates a baseline for measurement of objectives established in the revised Indiana SHSP.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	4.36	4.21	4.14	3.94	3.70	4.31	4.47
  5-Year Average					4.070	4.060	4.112
  Target (5-Year Average)							4.088	3.675	4.068

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Data Source: Automated Reporting Information Exchange System (ARIES) 2004 – 2013 As reported count of “Incapacitating Injuries” 2014 – 2019 Estimated incapacitating injuries count per VMT values FHWA VMT for 2014-2018 and INDOT values for 2019. The 5-year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2021 value of (4.355) as described in the following methodology. Estimated/Predicted values for 2017-2021: The FHWA approved VMT for 2018 was significantly lower than the INDOT reported value therefore an adjustment was made to the projection of annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) growth rate estimates. For 2018 a growth of 1.0% was used however for 2020 a reduction of 7.4% is assumed due to effects of the Covid 19 pandemic. For 2021 the assumed growth rate returned to 1.0%. INDOT’s Technical Planning Support & Programming Division estimates VMT by averaging the last 5 years of Annual Growth Rates for each of five factor groups and then averaging them. The Office of Traffic Safety uses those predicted annual estimates for suspected serious injuries along with the projected VMTs for their respective future years to produce predicted fatality rates per 100 million VMT.

  Data Source: Automated Reporting Information Exchange System (ARIES) 2004 – 2013 ARIES As reported count of “Incapacitating Injuries”; 2014 – 2020 ARIES Estimated incapacitating injuries count per approved process per VMT values FHWA VMT for 2014-2018 and INDOT values for 2019. FHWA reported VMT values for 2016 - 2019 INDOT estimated VMT values for 2020 and 2021 Safety performance targets result from analysis of trends in crashes of the stated severity rather than goals themselves. The information on expected performance acts as a benchmark to measure progress or indicate where changes are needed to improve program effectiveness going forward. The safety targets therefore do not represent goals but rather expected results due to current conditions. The 5-year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2022 value of (3.630) as described in the following methodology. Estimated/Predicted values for 2017-2021: The FHWA approved VMT for 2018 was significantly lower than the INDOT reported value therefore an adjustment was made to the projection of annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) growth rate estimates. For 2018 a growth of 1.0% was used however for 2020 a reduction of 7.4% is assumed due to effects of the Covid 19 pandemic. For 2021 the assumed VMT was estimated to be 1% below 2019 with the assumed growth rate at 1.0%. INDOT's Technical Planning Support & Programming Division estimates VMT by averaging the last 5 years of Annual Growth Rates for each of five factor groups and then averaging them. The Office of Traffic Safety uses those predicted annual estimates for suspected serious injuries along with the projected VMTs for their respective future years to produce predicted fatality rates per 100 million VMT.

  The performance target for the rate of suspected serious injuries per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled is independent of the FAST Act matching target requirement. The same VMT was used as the Traffic Fatalities target and a similar Slope and Intercept trend line was employed. The same suspected serious injury counts for 2017 through 2021 were also used. The target creates a baseline for measurement of objectives established in the revised Indiana SHSP.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	387	390	364	434	353	405	464
  5-Year Average					385.6	389.2	404.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							393.6	344.5	399.6

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Data Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (Non-motorist persons) 2009-2014 FARS Final File Count 2016-2018 FARS Annual Report File 2019 Indiana State Police FARS Report Data Source: Automated Reporting Information Exchange System (ARIES) (Non-motorist persons)* 2009-2013 As reported count of “Incapacitating Injuries” 2014-2018 Estimated count amounting to 13% of all non-fatal injuries The 5-year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2021 value of (422) as described in the following methodology. Baseline projections of Non-Motorist Fatalities for 2020 and 2021 are calculated using FARS Fatality counts and applying an equation to generate predictive values. This was accomplished by the software built into Microsoft Excel for applying a logarithmic trend line with a forward forecast of two years. The equation is of the form [y = A*ln(x) + B]. The resulting equation is then adjusted to more closely fit recent peak years by shifting the value of B to produce a matching value for the recorded peak. Non-Motorist Suspected Serious injuries are projected logarithmically as above for 2020 and 2021 with non-motorist incapacitating injuries projected as 13% of projected all non-motorist non-fatal injuries. *In addition to persons classified as pedestrians or pedal-cyclists, persons classified as animal drawn vehicle operators are included in the calculation. This is due to the significant number of crashes involving these vehicles across Indiana.

  Data Source: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (Non-motorist persons) 2009-2014 FARS Final File Count 2016-2019 FARS Annual Report File 2020 Indiana State Police ARIES database Data Source: Suspected Serious Injury Automated Reporting Information Exchange System (ARIES) (Non-motorist persons)* 2009-2013 As reported count of “Incapacitating Injuries”; 2014-2018 Estimated count amounting to 13% of all non-fatal injuries Safety performance targets result from analysis of trends in crashes of the stated severity rather than goals themselves. The information on expected performance acts as a benchmark to measure progress or indicate where changes are needed to improve program effectiveness going forward. The safety targets therefore do not represent goals but rather expected results due to current conditions. The 5-year average performance target listed above is based on a projected calendar 2022 value of (366) as described in the following methodology. In order to predict the number of non-motorized fatalities, this model would use the previous 5 years of data. However, the 2020 data was determined to be an outlier so that year was excluded from the calculation. The excel functions of SLOPE () and INTERCEPT () were used to generate the predictive equation. The predictive equation is of the form FATALITIES=YEAR*SLOPE()+INTERCEPT(). This predicted total was then adjusted upwards by 5% to account for any unexpected variances. *In addition to persons classified as pedestrians or pedal-cyclists, persons classified as animal drawn vehicle operators are included in the calculation. This is due to the significant number of crashes involving these vehicles across Indiana.

  A linear regression model using the previous 5 years data was also employed to predict non-motorized road users fatalities and suspected serious injuries. The excel functions of SLOPE () and INTERCEPT () were used to generate the predictive equation. The target creates a baseline for measurement of objectives established in the revised Indiana SHSP.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Indiana HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

*Based on (Target Year – 4) to (Target Year) 5-year average [For example, for the 2020 reporting period the target year is 2021 (to be displayed above table for this question). The footnote would read “Based on 2017 – 2021, 5-year average”.]

2023 Comments:

An additional consideration to the above described procedure involves Vehicle Miles of travel. INDOT’s partner agency that contains the State Highway Safety Office, is the Indiana Criminal Justice Institute (ICJI). INDOT shares responsibility with CJI to report three of the same target measures in their annual Highway Safety Plan (HSP) Report that they submit to NHTSA. The timing of the HSP report requires that the future year targets be set before July 1st of each year. As a result, vehicle miles of travel data for the prior year is at a preliminary estimate stage and should be considered a projection along with the VMT for the current and future year.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.