Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Mississippi

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	677	687	685	663	642	748	772
  5-Year Average					670.8	685.0	702.0
  Target (5-Year Average)							685.4	723.0	760.8

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  MDOT's performance target for number of fatalities is based on a five year rolling average developed using 11 years' (2009-2019) worth of historical crash data. Prediction models are developed using Excel's FORECAST.ETS exponential triple smoothing formula. While we always maintain a target of zero fatalities, historical trends in the state are more in line with what is presented as the "target" for the state.

  MDOT's performance target for number of fatalities is based on a five year rolling average developed using 12 years' (2009-2020) worth of historical crash data. Prediction models are developed using Excel's FORECAST.ETS exponential triple smoothing formula. While we always maintain a target of zero fatalities, historical trends in the state are more in line with what is presented as the "target" for the state.

  A requirement of the HSIP Safety Performance Targets is to match DPS Safety Performance Measures in the annual Highway Safety Plan. In a joint effort, MDOT and DPS utilize realized data trends within the state to project future numbers for fatalities, fatality rate and serious injuries. As such, our safety targets are developed in compliance with NHTSA requirement for the DPS' Highway Safety Plan performance measures. For congruity, the remaining safety targets are developed in the same manner (serious injury rate and non-motorized fatal and serious injuries.) Those values are then used to identify where the most significant problems are with respect to fatal and serious injury crashes, and a plan is developed to treat and hopefully reduce those numbers in the future.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.70	1.69	1.68	1.63	1.56	1.89	1.89
  5-Year Average					1.652	1.690	1.730
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.690	1.810	1.870

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  MDOT's performance target for number of fatalities is based on a five year rolling average developed using 11 years' (2009-2019) worth of historical crash data. The volumes used to calculate the rates are provided by MDOT's Planning Division.

  MDOT's performance target for number of fatalities is based on a five year rolling average developed using 12 years' (2009-2020) worth of historical crash data. The volumes used to calculate the rates are provided by MDOT's Planning Division.

  See above.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	637	781	686	587	1,579	3,630	3,562
  5-Year Average					854.0	1,452.6	2,008.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							2,178.4	2,905.0	3,098.0

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  MDOT's performance target for number of serious injuries is based on a five year rolling average developed using 11 years' (2009-2019) worth of historical crash data. Prediction models are developed using Excel's FORECAST.ETS exponential triple smoothing formula. Mississippi's performance target submitted for 2021 is substantially higher than it has been in previous years. This is due to a change in 2019 to how the state defines serious injury. An update was made in order to meet national standards and requirements for MMUCC 4th edition. With this change in place, Mississippi is already seeing a significant rise in reported serious injuries, and anticipates that number to grow in 2020. Though we maintain a true target of lowering serious injuries to zero, the state must set its target in line with historical trends - including accounting for the recent rise due to the definition change.

  MDOT's performance target for number of serious injuries is based on a five year rolling average developed using 1.3 years' (September 2019-2020) worth of historical crash data. Prediction models are developed using Excel's FORECAST.ETS exponential triple smoothing formula. Mississippi's performance target submitted for 2022 is substantially higher than it has been in previous years, continuing a trend that began with 2021 performance targets. These substantially increased figures are due to a change in 2019 to how the state defines serious injury. An update was made in order to meet national standards and requirements for MMUCC 4th edition, and this was incorporated into the DPS' new eCrash reporting form used by Law Enforcement Officials (LEOs). With the change in place, Mississippi speculated in last year's report that it anticipated 2020 suspected serious injuries to show a sharp increase over 2019 numbers. That premonition came true with the state reporting 3,630 suspected serious injuries for this past year. Though we maintain a true target of lowering suspected serious injuries to zero, the state must set its target in line with historical trends - including accounting for the recent rise due to the definition change.

  See above.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.60	1.92	1.68	1.44	3.84	9.15	8.72
  5-Year Average					2.096	3.606	4.966
  Target (5-Year Average)							5.410	7.300	7.640

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  MDOT's performance target for number of serious injuries is based on a five year rolling average developed using 11 years' (2009-2019) worth of historical crash data. The volumes used to calculate the rates are provided by MDOT's Planning Division.

  MDOT's performance target for number of serious injuries is based on a five year rolling average developed using 1.3 years' (September 2019-2020) worth of historical crash data. The volumes used to calculate the rates are provided by MDOT's Planning Division.

  See above.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	109	121	136	146	183	322	290
  5-Year Average					139.0	181.6	215.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							181.7	349.6	258.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  MDOT's performance target for number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries is based on a five year rolling average developed using 11 years' (2009-2019) worth of historical crash data. Prediction models are developed using Excel's FORECAST.ETS exponential triple smoothing formula. While we always maintain a target of zero fatalities, historical trends in the state are more in line with what is presented.

  MDOT's performance target for number of non-motorized fatalities and suspected serious injuries is based on a five year rolling average developed using 1.3 years' (September 2019-2020) worth of historical crash data. Prediction models are developed using Excel's FORECAST.ETS exponential triple smoothing formula. While we always maintain a target of zero fatalities, historical trends in the state are more in line with what is presented.

  See above.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 Mississippi HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2021 Comments:

While developing performance targets, MDOT's HSIP personnel met virtually numerous times with the Mississippi Office of Highway Safety (MOHS), who is responsible for the state's NHTSA Highway Safety Plan (HSP). Our offices worked hand in hand to determine the appropriate performance targets regarding fatalities, fatality rate, and serious injuries that are included in both the HSP as well as the HSIP Report. Our offices agreed to the three targets, and MOHS reported the joint targets as a part of their 2020 HSP. The remaining two targets - serious injury rate and non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries - were set using the same analysis tools and procedures as the three shared goals with MOHS.

2022 Comments:

While developing performance targets, MDOT's HSIP personnel met virtually numerous times with the Mississippi Office of Highway Safety (MOHS), who is responsible for the state's NHTSA Highway Safety Plan (HSP). Our offices worked hand in hand to determine the mutually agreed upon performance targets regarding fatalities, fatality rate, and serious injuries that are included in both the HSP as well as the HSIP Report. The remaining two targets - serious injury rate and non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries - were set using the same analysis tools and procedures as the three shared goals with MOHS.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.