Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - New Hampshire

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

• 

  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	114	136	102	147	101	104	118
  5-Year Average					120.0	118.0	114.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							120.0	117.8	111.6

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The 2019 five-year average is 120.0 fatalities. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two-year cycle, with the number of 2019 fatalities being among the lowest values for the decade. The five year average of the number of fatalities also increased from 2018 to 2019, but with the five-year average trend line mostly attenuating the large annual variation. The rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable as a target for the NHDOT as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state’s Driving Toward Zero initiative, thus a level trend has been selected as the target. A 2021 target of 120.0 fatalities (i.e., maintaining the 2019 five-year average) has been adopted. The randomness in the annual performance prevents strict adherence to the SHSP goal of a 50% reduction in fatalities by 2030 in the setting of annual targets. Rather, this target has been set based on data of the actual performance. However, NHDOT's fundamental effort through the SHSP is to reduce fatalities on NH roadways, and the NHDOT will continue to identify and pursue infrastructure improvements consistent with the relevant SHSP critical emphasis areas to reduce fatalities.

  The 2020 five-year average is 117.8 fatalities. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two-year cycle, with the number of 2020 fatalities being among the lowest values for the decade. The slight rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable as a target for the NHDOT as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state's Driving Toward Zero initiative, thus a level trend has been selected as the target. A 2022 target of 117.8 fatalities (i.e., maintaining the 2020 five-year average) has been adopted. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two-year cycle, with the number of 2019 and 2020 fatalities being among the lowest values for the decade, but with the annual number of fatalities having climbed in 2021 despite the substantially reduced traffic volumes. The slightly declining trend computed by the data is not indicative of anticipated performance. Specifically, the very poor performance seen in 2018 continues to heavily influence the computed trend line. The actual performance that will ultimately be reported for 2023 will no longer include this data point; therefore, the 2023 target has been computed presuming that the 2021 annual performance (i.e., countering the rising trend since 2019) will be repeated. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	0.87	1.01	0.75	1.07	0.73	0.87	0.90
  5-Year Average					0.886	0.886	0.864
  Target (5-Year Average)							0.884	0.874	0.857

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The 2019 five-year average fatality rate is 0.884 per HMVMT. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two-year cycle, with the 2019 fatality rate being among the lowest recorded values for the decade. The annual fatalities rates and the five-year averages exhibit similar patterns seen in the numbers of fatalities, with proportionally large annual variations. The computed trend line predicts a slowly rising trend to 2021. This rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable to the NHDOT as a target as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state’s Driving Toward Zero initiative. A 2021 target fatality rate of 0.884 fatalities per HMVMT (i.e., maintaining the 2019 five-year average) is hereby adopted. The randomness in the annual performance prevents strict adherence to the SHSP goal of a 50% reduction in fatalities by 2030 in the setting of annual targets. Rather, this target has been set based on data of the actual performance. However, NHDOT's fundamental effort through the SHSP is to reduce fatalities on NH roadways, and the NHDOT will continue to identify and pursue infrastructure improvements consistent with the relevant SHSP critical emphasis areas to reduce fatalities.

  The 2020 five-year average fatality rate is 0.883 per HMVMT. Fatalities in the last decade have shown wide variation over a one to two-year cycle, with the 2020 fatality rate being near the mean for the decade. The annual fatalities rates and the five-year averages exhibit similar patterns seen in the numbers of fatalities, with proportionally large annual variations. The computed trend line predicts a slowly falling trend to 2022. This falling trend is favorable and achievable based on recent performance, thus a target of 0.874 fatalities per HMVMT has been adopted. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  Similar to the number of fatalities, the slightly declining trend computed by the data is not indicative of anticipated performance. Specifically, the very poor performance seen in 2018 continues to heavily influence the computed trend line. The actual performance that will ultimately be reported for 2023 will no longer include this data point; therefore, the 2023 target has been computed presuming that the 2021 annual performance (i.e., countering the rising trend since 2019) will be repeated. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	459	477	410	451	485	504	482
  5-Year Average					456.4	465.4	466.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							456.4	465.4	466.4

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The computed 2021 target represents a 4.3% annual reduction from the 2019 five-year average. The computed target is substantially lower than any historical values within the analysis period, as the trend line is still strongly influenced by the peak in serious injuries in 2021. A 2021 target of 456.4 serious injuries is hereby adopted as it would be a more achievable goal consistent with the observed safety performance in recent years, yet would still represent nearly the best serious injury performance in the last decade. The randomness in the annual performance prevents strict adherence to the SHSP goal of a 50% reduction in fatalities by 2030 in the setting of annual targets. Rather, this target has been set based on data of the actual performance. However, NHDOT's fundamental effort through the SHSP is to reduce serious injuries on NH roadways, and the NHDOT will continue to identify and pursue infrastructure improvements consistent with the relevant SHSP critical emphasis areas to reduce serious injuries.

  2020 saw the highest number of serious injuries, despite reduced traffic volumes caused by the COVID pandemic. Nevertheless, the computed trend line predicts declining crashes. Closer inspection of the trend line and computed target value of 439.4 revealed that meeting this target would require far superior safety performance in 2021 and 2022 than has been observed in the past decade. Therefore, a more achievable target of 465.4, equal to the 2020 five-year average, has been adopted. This more sustainable target would still require safety performance better than recent years. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  The number of serious injuries had been increasing since 2017 but declined in 2021. Also worth noting is that despite the substantial reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of serious injuries was the highest since 2012, resulting in a spike in the serious injury rate.
  The rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable to determine a target as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state Driving Toward Zero initiative. Therefore, it is recommended that the computed value for 2021 performance, 466.4 serious injuries, be maintained and adopted as the 2023target. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	3.51	3.53	3.00	3.27	3.51	4.22	3.67
  5-Year Average					3.364	3.506	3.534
  Target (5-Year Average)							3.353	3.506	3.532

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  The predicted 2021 target computed from trend analysis represents a 5.9% annual reduction from the 2019 five-year average. The computed target is substantially lower than any historical values within the analysis period (with the exception of 2017) and would not be sustainable target. A 2021 target serious injury rate of 3.353 fatalities per HMVMT is adopted as it would present a more achievable goal while still representing better performance than has been observed in the decade. The randomness in the annual performance prevents strict adherence to the SHSP goal of a 50% reduction in fatalities by 2030 in the setting of annual targets. Rather, this target has been set based on data of the actual performance. However, NHDOT's fundamental effort through the SHSP is to reduce serious injuries on NH roadways, and the NHDOT will continue to identify and pursue infrastructure improvements consistent with the relevant SHSP critical emphasis areas to reduce serious injuries.

  Similar to serious injury numbers reported above, 2020 saw a sharp peak in serious injury rate due to the combined influences of increased serious injuries despite the substantially reduced traffic volumes. Nevertheless, the computed trend line predicts declining crashes. Closer inspection of the trend line and computed target value of 3.206 revealed that meeting this target would require far superior safety performance in 2021 and 2022 than has been observed in the past decade. Therefore, a more achievable target of 3.506, equal to the 2020 five-year average, has been adopted. This more sustainable target would still require safety performance better than recent years. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  The rate of serious injuries had been increasing since 2017 but declined in 2021. Also worth noting is that despite the substantial reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of serious injuries was the highest since 2012, resulting in a spike in the serious injury rate.
  The rising trend computed by the data is not acceptable to determine a target as it would be contrary to the core objective of the state Driving Toward Zero initiative. Therefore, it is recommended that the computed value for 2021 performance, 3.532 fatalities per 100 MVMT, be maintained and adopted as the 2023 target. This target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the increasing reliance on the implementation of proven systematic roadway departure countermeasures to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	66	62	54	40	38	31	40
  5-Year Average					52.0	45.0	40.6
  Target (5-Year Average)							45.9	38.0	37.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Trend analysis predicts a strongly declining trend and a 2021 target value of 45.9 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. This target value of 45.9 is hereby adopted as it would be consistent with the performance trend since 2015 and would represent a realistic performance level consistent with the desired trend. The randomness in the annual performance prevents strict adherence to the SHSP goal of a 50% reduction in fatalities by 2030 in the setting of annual targets. As a result, this target has been set based on data of the actual performance; however, the strong downward trend in the actual performance is favorable and is in line with SHSP goals, NHDOT will continue to identify and pursue infrastructure improvements consistent with the SHSP critical emphasis area for vulnerable users.

  Trend analysis predicts a strongly declining trend and a 2022 target value of 38.0 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. This target value is hereby adopted as it would be consistent with the strongly favorable performance trend since 2015 and would represent a realistic performance level consistent with the desired trend. The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the planned expanded use of systematic pedestrian crossing improvements to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result.

  Trend analysis indicates a declining trend and a 2023 target value of 33.2 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. Because achieving this target would require safety performance significantly better than all prior years, a more modest target of 37.0 is recommended. This more achievable target has been computed by assuming the current annual performance of 39 fatalities and serious injuries would be maintained.
  The target supports SHSP goals by reflecting the planned expanded use of systematic pedestrian crossing improvements to address this critical emphasis area, and the improved safety performance that will result. In addition, the new focus on and HSIP allocation for non-motorized safety will renew and sustain consistent improvement in this measure.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Hampshire HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

N/A

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.