Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2021) - New Mexico

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

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  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	298	405	380	392	425	398	481
  5-Year Average					380.0	400.0	415.2
  Target (5-Year Average)							411.6	421.9	446.6

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Although five-year average fatalities rose by a moderate 5.5 percent between 2014 and 2018, preliminary and projected data indicate that fatalities will increase by about 10.6 percent between 2018 and 2021. In 2019, fatalities involving large, personal vehicles (SUVs/Pick-up Trucks/ Vans/4-Wheel Drives) or involving pedestrians have increased and accounted for 53.3 percent of all crash fatalities. Given the prevalence of large, personal vehicle ownership, and projected increase in fatalities overall, the five-year average projection of 411.6 is determined to be the 2021 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The five-year average fatalities increased by 13.2 percent between 2016 and 2020. Using preliminary data for 2020 and projected data for 2021 and 2022, it is expected that fatalities will increase by roughly 13.4 percent between 2018 and 2022. In 2019, fatalities involving large, personal vehicles (Pick-up Trucks/Vans/SUVs/4-Wheel Drives) or involving pedestrians/pedalcyclists accounted for 55.3 percent of all crash fatalities. In 2020, this same focus group accounted for 59.0 percent of all fatalities. Given the prevalence of large, personal vehicle ownership and projected increase in fatalities overall, the five-year average projection of 421.9 fatalities is determined to be the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The preliminary reported number of fatalities increase by about 20 percent from 2020 to 2021, as it increased from 398 to 479 fatalities, respectively. The five-year moving average fatalities from 2022 to 2023 are also projected to rise, although less aggressively, by 3.7 percent (430.6 to 446.6). With fatalities projected to keep rising, the five-year average projection of 446.6 is determined to be the 2023 target.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1.09	1.45	1.37	1.44	1.53	1.68	1.79
  5-Year Average					1.376	1.494	1.562
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.486	1.645	1.695

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Five-year average fatalities are expected to increase in 2021 from 2017, thus the projected five-year average of 1.486 is the 2021 target. Due to the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on VMT, the preliminary 2019 VMT value is also used for the 2020 and 2021 VMT values. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  Five-year average fatalities are expected to increase in 2022 from 2018, thus the projected five-year average of 1.645 fatalities per HMVMT is the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The projected rate of fatalities for 2023 increased due to the stability projected for VMT in 2021-2023. Combined with the fact the preliminary total fatalities for 2021 shows a large increase and the projected fatalities also show increases, the fatality rate is also projected to increase. Observing that the VMTs are not increasing in step with the observed fatality numbers impacts the five-year moving average - resulting in an increased fatality rate for 2023. The 2023 projected fatality rate of 1.695 is generally consistent with the rate of change in the five-year moving average as observed since 2017.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	1,329	1,153	1,133	1,057	1,079	887	996
  5-Year Average					1,150.2	1,061.8	1,030.4
  Target (5-Year Average)							1,030.5	1,030.5	995.4

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Five-year average serious injuries are projected to fall by about 13.2 percent between 2018 and 2021, and the State anticipates a continued reduction in serious injuries in 2020. The five-year average projection of 1,030.5 is the 2021 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  Preliminary suspected serious injury numbers show a decrease of roughly 23% from 2019 to 2020. This can partially be attributed to lower VMT in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to adjust to these fluctuations, we will use the targets that were set in the summer of 2020, prior to any COVID-19 considerations and impacts, leaving the state with a five-year average projection of 1,030.5 as the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The original methodology used to project the five-year moving average number of A-Injuries for 2023 resulted in a target of 953.5 A-Injuries - roughly a 10% decrease from the previous year target. This decrease of 10% is a significantly higher decrease compared to the typical observed decrease of A-Injuries dating back to 2016. For this reason, the five-year moving average target for A-Injuries has been adjusted to 995.4 to be more in line with the observed year-over-year decrease of five-year moving average A-Injuries.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	4.84	4.13	4.07	3.87	3.89	3.73	3.71
  5-Year Average					4.160	3.938	3.854
  Target (5-Year Average)							3.722	3.824	3.801

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Five-year average serious injury rates are projected to continue falling, thus the five-year average projection of 3.722 is the 2021 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The five-year average projection set in the 2021 PM Targets Report of 3.824 A-Injuries per HMVMT is also the 2022 target. Preliminary VMT numbers show a decrease of roughly 15% from 2019 to 2020, which can partially be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to adjust to these fluctuations, we will use the targets that were set in the summer of 2020, prior to any COVID-19 considerations and impacts. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The original methodology used to project the five-year moving average number of suspected A-Injuries per 100M VMT for 2023 resulted in 3.584. This decrease is a significantly higher decrease compared to the typical observed decrease of A-Injuries dating back to 2016. The 2022 target is 3.842 and while the serious injury rate is declining, a change from 3.584 from 3.842 is unrealistic. For this reason, the five-year moving average target for the rate of A-Injuries per 100M VMT has been adjusted to 3.801 to be more in line with the observed year-over-year decrease of five-year moving average for the rate of suspected serious injuries per 100M VMT.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
  Annual	216	191	197	205	209	181	219
  5-Year Average					203.6	196.6	202.2
  Target (5-Year Average)							200.0	190.6	199.4

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2021 Target
  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target

  Five-year average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries are projected to remain relatively constant over the next two years from 2020 to 2021. The five-year average projection of 200.0 is the 2021 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  Five-year average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries are projected to remain relatively constant over the next two years from 2021 to 2022. The five-year average projection of 190.6 is the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  Five-year average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries has been largely steady and flat since 2018. The five-year moving average has been hovering around 200 with minor fluctuations annually. The 2023 projected five-year moving average is no different with a target of 199.4.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2020-2022 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

N/A

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.