Transportation Performance Management

State Highway Safety Report (2022) - New Mexico

The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per 23 CFR 490.209(a), States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.

A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.

The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.

More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.

All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2022 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.

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  Number of Fatalities

• Number of Fatalities	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
  Annual	405	380	392	425	398	483	466
  5-Year Average					400.0	415.6	432.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							421.9	446.6	450.0

• Basis for Number of Fatalities Target

  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target
  • 2024 Target

  The five-year average fatalities increased by 13.2 percent between 2016 and 2020. Using preliminary data for 2020 and projected data for 2021 and 2022, it is expected that fatalities will increase by roughly 13.4 percent between 2018 and 2022. In 2019, fatalities involving large, personal vehicles (Pick-up Trucks/Vans/SUVs/4-Wheel Drives) or involving pedestrians/pedalcyclists accounted for 55.3 percent of all crash fatalities. In 2020, this same focus group accounted for 59.0 percent of all fatalities. Given the prevalence of large, personal vehicle ownership and projected increase in fatalities overall, the five-year average projection of 421.9 fatalities is determined to be the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The preliminary reported number of fatalities increase by about 20 percent from 2020 to 2021, as it increased from 398 to 479 fatalities, respectively. The five-year moving average fatalities from 2022 to 2023 are also projected to rise, although less aggressively, by 3.7 percent (430.6 to 446.6). With fatalities projected to keep rising, the five-year average projection of 446.6 is determined to be the 2023 target.

  The method used in prior years to establish a target for fatalities was based on a mathematical approach that projected a value from a 5-year moving average trendline. For the calendar year 2024 fatalities, this trendline indicated a positive slope. NMDOT HSIP and stakeholders decided to set a target that was lower than the projected value for 2024.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2016-2021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
  Targets: 2021-2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)

• Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
  Annual	1.45	1.37	1.44	1.53	1.68	1.80	1.74
  5-Year Average					1.494	1.564	1.638
  Target (5-Year Average)							1.645	1.695	1.689

• Basis for Fatality Rate Target

  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target
  • 2024 Target

  Five-year average fatalities are expected to increase in 2022 from 2018, thus the projected five-year average of 1.645 fatalities per HMVMT is the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2021 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The projected rate of fatalities for 2023 increased due to the stability projected for VMT in 2021-2023. Combined with the fact the preliminary total fatalities for 2021 shows a large increase and the projected fatalities also show increases, the fatality rate is also projected to increase. Observing that the VMTs are not increasing in step with the observed fatality numbers impacts the five-year moving average - resulting in an increased fatality rate for 2023. The 2023 projected fatality rate of 1.695 is generally consistent with the rate of change in the five-year moving average as observed since 2017.

  The method used in prior years to establish a target for fatality rate was based on a mathematical approach that projected a value from a 5-year moving average trendline. For the calendar year 2024 fatality rate, this trendline indicated an increase in the rate of fatalities, which NMDOT HSIP and stakeholders found unacceptable. Due to this, the group decided to set a target that was lower than the projection for 2024.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2016-2021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
  VMT: 2016-2022 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2021-2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Serious Injuries

• Number of Serious Injuries	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
  Annual	1,153	1,133	1,057	1,079	887	1,044	1,079
  5-Year Average					1,061.8	1,040.0	1,029.2
  Target (5-Year Average)							1,030.5	995.4	1,018.6

• Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target

  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target
  • 2024 Target

  Preliminary suspected serious injury numbers show a decrease of roughly 23% from 2019 to 2020. This can partially be attributed to lower VMT in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to adjust to these fluctuations, we will use the targets that were set in the summer of 2020, prior to any COVID-19 considerations and impacts, leaving the state with a five-year average projection of 1,030.5 as the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The original methodology used to project the five-year moving average number of A-Injuries for 2023 resulted in a target of 953.5 A-Injuries - roughly a 10% decrease from the previous year target. This decrease of 10% is a significantly higher decrease compared to the typical observed decrease of A-Injuries dating back to 2016. For this reason, the five-year moving average target for A-Injuries has been adjusted to 995.4 to be more in line with the observed year-over-year decrease of five-year moving average A-Injuries.

  The method used in prior years to establish a target for serious injuries was based on a mathematical approach that projected a value from a 5-year moving average trendline. For the calendar year 2024 serious injuries, this trendline indicated a relatively flat slope (neither positive nor negative slope). NMDOT HSIP and stakeholders decided to set a target that was lower than the projected value for 2024.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2021-2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)

• Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
  Annual	4.13	4.07	3.87	3.89	3.73	3.89	4.02
  5-Year Average					3.938	3.890	3.880
  Target (5-Year Average)							3.824	3.801	3.800

• Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target

  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target
  • 2024 Target

  The five-year average projection set in the 2021 PM Targets Report of 3.824 A-Injuries per HMVMT is also the 2022 target. Preliminary VMT numbers show a decrease of roughly 15% from 2019 to 2020, which can partially be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to adjust to these fluctuations, we will use the targets that were set in the summer of 2020, prior to any COVID-19 considerations and impacts. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  The original methodology used to project the five-year moving average number of suspected A-Injuries per 100M VMT for 2023 resulted in 3.584. This decrease is a significantly higher decrease compared to the typical observed decrease of A-Injuries dating back to 2016. The 2022 target is 3.842 and while the serious injury rate is declining, a change from 3.584 from 3.842 is unrealistic. For this reason, the five-year moving average target for the rate of A-Injuries per 100M VMT has been adjusted to 3.801 to be more in line with the observed year-over-year decrease of five-year moving average for the rate of suspected serious injuries per 100M VMT.

  The method used in prior years to establish a target for rate of serious injuries was based on a mathematical approach that projected a value from a 5-year moving average trendline. The trendline for rate of serious injuries in the calendar year 2024 behaved similar to that of the serious injuries trendline, showing a relatively flat slope (neither positive nor negative slope). NMDOT HSIP and stakeholders decided to set a target that was lower than the projected value for 2024.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Serious Injuries: 2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Report
  VMT: 2016-2022 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
  Targets: 2021-2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

• 

  Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries

• Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
  Annual	191	197	205	209	181	225	219
  5-Year Average					196.6	203.4	207.8
  Target (5-Year Average)							190.6	199.4	200.0

• Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target

  • 2022 Target
  • 2023 Target
  • 2024 Target

  Five-year average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries are projected to remain relatively constant over the next two years from 2021 to 2022. The five-year average projection of 190.6 is the 2022 target. The basis for projecting the safety performance targets are based on a linear best fit line that is reliant on actual New Mexico data from prior years. The projection of linear best fit lines was used to obtain the FFY2022 targets. These targets are supported by the 2016 New Mexico SHSP goals since they are data-driven and generated with a collaborative approach.

  Five-year average non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries has been largely steady and flat since 2018. The five-year moving average has been hovering around 200 with minor fluctuations annually. The 2023 projected five-year moving average is no different with a target of 199.4.

  The method used in prior years to establish a target for rate of serious injuries was based on a mathematical approach that projected a value from a 5-year moving average trendline. For the calendar year 2024 non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries, the trendline indicated a relatively slight increase in the sum of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. Due to this small increase, NMDOT HSIP and stakeholders decided to set a target that was lower than the projected value for 2024.

  
  

• Data Sources:
  Fatalities: 2016-2021 Final FARS, 2022 FARS Annual Report File
  Serious Injuries: 2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Report
  Targets: 2021-2023 New Mexico HSIP Annual Reports

Additional Comments

2024 Comments:

The three common measure targets (fatalities, serious injuries, and fatalities rate) are required to be identical between the Highway Safety Plan, NHTSA and the Highway Safety Improvement Program. Changes created by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) resulted in the Highway Safety Plan (HSP) requirement of the plan to cover three years. Additionally, the new rules mandate the NHTSA targets be held steady or show improvement over the three-year period. A waiver was issued by US DOT for calendar year 2024 allowing for the common measure targets to not be identical between the two programs, and NMDOT HSIP is taking advantage of that waiver for this performance period. However, for this performance period, both the HSP and HSIP decided to re-evaluate how the targets are set. In prior years, projected 5-year moving averages were the standard method for determining the safety targets. However, 5-year moving averages purely follow the crash trends, and unfortunately the number of fatalities and serious injury crashes has been increasing over the last few years in New Mexico. This led the projected 5-year moving averages to show increasing fatalities and serious injuries at levels the DOT could not accept. The targets continue to be 5-year moving averages and to achieve these targets the number of fatalities and serious injuries must decline. Instead of following the projections, which are increasing, NMDOT’s HSIP and HSP both show declining targets for the three common measure targets included in the Annual Report. This change more accurately demonstrates NMDOT’s commitment to improving safety outcomes for all roadway users. NMDOT’s FHWA and NHTSA safety programs, and all the work of the department, commit to using all the tools available to do everything in our power to bring down the number of fatalities and serious injuries on all public roads in New Mexico. NMDOT HSIP intended to have the common measure targets match between the HSP and HSIP, however NHTSA required an adjustment to the HSP targets to meet the IIJA requirements and this change did not allow sufficient time for the HSIP to engage a stakeholder process to adjust the HSIP targets. This effort is an “all hands,” multidisciplinary effort. Aligning with SHSP direction, coordination is required between Tribal and Local Public Agencies (TLPAs) and State agencies (led by NMDOT). This collaboration aims to promote safety culture by centering safety as a primary focus for all transportation projects, initiatives, and programs. We all must work to make safe driving and roadway behavior choices the only acceptable choices. To further these efforts to improve safety outcomes for all transportation system users the following three common measure safety targets were originally agreed upon by NMDOT’s HSP and HSIP in May 2023, though the HSP targets were ultimately changed for these measures due to NHTSA requirements. The remaining 2 HSIP targets for Rate of Serious Injuries and Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries were set by the NMDOT HSIP team, following the agreed-upon methodology. All targets were set and/or shared with New Mexico’s five Metropolitan Planning Organization’s for their review and comment.

Safety Performance Target Assessment

PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.