State Highway Safety Report (2021) - Tennessee
The following provides a summary of the Highway Safety Improvement Program's (HSIP) safety performance measures and State safety performance targets. As per the Safety PM Final Rule, States are required to set annual safety performance targets in the HSIP annual report for the number of fatalities, rate of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of serious injuries, rate of serious injures per 100 million VMT, and number of non-motorized fatalities and serious injuries. The safety performance targets are based on 5-year rolling averages. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when establishing safety performance targets. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. The safety performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.
A State Department of Transportation (DOT) has met or made significant progress towards meeting its safety performance targets when at least four of the five safety performance targets established under 23 CFR 490.209(a) have been met or the actual outcome is better than the baseline performance. The baseline performance is the 5-year average ending with the year prior to the establishment of the target.
The Basis for Target and Additional Comments are provided by the State in their HSIP Annual Report and have not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT. For additional information about each State's HSIP, the complete reports are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/reporting.
More information and resources on Safety Performance Management are available at https://highways.dot.gov/safety/hsip/spm/safety-performance-management-safety-pm-overview.
All State data used to populate the State Highway Safety Reports for 2021 are available for download at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/tpm_dashboard_data.zip.
Number of Fatalities
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Number of Fatalities 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 962 1,037 1,024 1,040 1,136 1,217 1,327 5-Year Average 1,039.8 1,090.8 1,148.8 Target (5-Year Average) 1,078.8 1,201.4 1,308.2 -
Basis for Number of Fatalities Target
The number of traffic fatalities in Tennessee for 2019 remained high marking the 4th consecutive year of 1,000 fatalities or more. Current YTD fatalities as of May 20, 2020 show no change over the same date in 2019.(1) This stable performance occurred despite drastic reductions in traffic volumes caused by school closures, workforce closures and shifts, and a Safer at Home order issued by the governor to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This order was in effect from March 31, 2020 to April 30, 2020 though many businesses chose to close or have employees work from home prior to that date and many have elected to extend those conditions beyond the expiration of the order. Generally, as travel increases, so do the chances of drivers being involved in crashes. Factors contributing to increased travel typically include population increases, travel related to tourist activities, low fuel prices, and a good economy. While Tennessee’s population continued to rise (0.85% from 2018 to 2019)(2) and fuel prices are low, the abrupt shutdown of Tennessee’s economy has significantly impacted traffic volumes in the Volunteer state with volumes reduced as much as 60% in some areas after the Safer at Home order was put into effect. A state funding increase (IMPROVE Act) occurred in 2017 and requires TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period of time. However, declines in fuel tax revenue may slow the ability for the state to complete projects. Bloomberg(3) reports that state transportation departments are expecting a 30% decline in fuel tax revenues over the next 18 months. Some of the IMPROVE Act projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on results. One year of low fatalities (962 in 2015) will drop from the target period but will remain in the baseline period, keeping the baseline lower than the projected moving average. As previously stated, the number of fatalities has been over 1,000 during each of the 3 years of available data included in this target setting cycle (2017-2019)(4).Additional factors provided by the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security and which may contribute to fatality numbers in Tennessee include geography, tourism, and freight. While tourism is Tennessee’s 2nd largest industry, it is theorized that travel to the Volunteer State will be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic as evidenced by Nashville having cancelled 835 conventions and approximately 26M people cancelling trips to Music City through the end of 2020(5). Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. In addition to implementing the Highway Safety Manual, utilizing predictive analysis to provide further enforcement at high crash locations, and providing various training programs, a bill banning handheld cell phones or standalone electronic devices took effect on July 1, 2019. This bill also requires the Department of Safety and Homeland Security (TDOSHS) to include distracted driving as part of the information presented in driver education training. Additionally, Tennessee’s Calendar Year 2019 seatbelt usage rate (91.75%) was higher than the national average (90.7%)6. This marks the second year Tennessee’s usage rate surpassed 90 percent. TDOT has also been updating the state’s Strategic Highway Safety Plan during the current performance cycle. Once implemented, strategies identified in the update plan should help to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries. The Data as defined by Final Safety Performance Measure Rule Subpart A, General Information 490.101 Definitions: Target means a quantifiable level of performance or condition, expressed as a value for the measure, to be achieved within a time period by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Driven Safety Analysis implementation plan was developed to quantify the effectiveness of safety countermeasures used in TDOT processes using the Highway Safety Manual. Targeted enforcement campaigns, such as Operation Hands Free, are being conducted around the state. Some Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) are using crash and speed data to identify areas for increased enforcement activities. TDOT and TN’s MPOs are consistently working to improve safety through projects. These projects include intersection improvements, retro-reflective sign projects, and bicycle/pedestrian safety improvements. The Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency is working develop a methodology for analyzing 2016- 2020 crash data by contributing factors that may be related to infrastructure. Development of this methodology should help to identify projects that will improve safety. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency, Bristol Urban Area MPO, and the Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process. Leadership approved a target of 1,078.8 for the 2017-2021 target setting performance cycle. This target is consistent with the 3-year linear trend line and assumes that the number of fatalities for both 2020 and 2021 will decrease by approximately 37 from the 2019 total. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1 Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security, TITAN Division, (2020). “Tennessee Traffic Fatalities Daily Report.” [Data set]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/safety/documents/daily_05202020.pdf 2 Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Tennessee State Data Center. “2019 Population Estimates Show Continued Growth in Tennessee, Southeastern States,” [Online]. Available: https://tnsdc.utk.edu/2019/12/31/2019- population-estimates-show-continued-growth-in-tennessee-southeastern-states/ 3 Beene, Ryan. (April 15, 2020). America’s Empty Roads: Fewer Deaths but a Blow to State Budgets. Bloomberg. [Online]. Available: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/america-s-empty-roads-fewer-deaths-but-a-blow-to- state-budgets 4 Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security, TITAN Division, (2020). “Tennessee Traffic Fatalities Historical Report 2015-2019.” [Data set]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/safety/documents/dailyfatality2019.pdf 5 Abell, AJ. May 1, 2020. Nashville Tourism Hit Hard: 4th of July Likely Off, 835 Conventions Canceled. WZTV [Online]. Available: https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-tourism-hit-hard-4th-of-july-likely-off-835-conventions-canceled 6 Tennessee Highway Safety Office (January 21, 2020). Tennessee’s Seat Belt Usage Rate Reached 81.75 Percent in 2019. [Online]. Available: https://tntrafficsafety.org/tennessee%E2%80%99s-seat-belt-usage-rate-reached-9175-percent-2019The number of traffic fatalities in Tennessee for 2020 increased marking the 5th consecutive year of 1,000 fatalities or more. According to preliminary data, one thousand two hundred seventeen (1,217) fatalities occurred during Calendar Year 2020. This marked a 7.4% increase in fatalities over 2019. This increase occurred despite traffic reductions due to school closures, workforce closures and shifts, and state and local policies. The governor issued a Safer at Home1 executive order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic that was in effect from March 31, 2020 to April 30, 2020, though many businesses chose to close or have employees work from home prior to and after the order expired. Current YTD fatalities as of June 1, 2021, show 114 more fatalities over the same date in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic caused changes in fatal and serious injury crashes. During 2020, Tennessee saw increases in many types of fatality crashes over 2019. Most notably, fatalities with large trucks involved increased by 25% likely due to increased freight volumes.2 Further, fatality crashes in urban areas increased by almost 14% while rural fatality crashes remained consistent with 2019. These changes increased uncertainty about future fatal and serious injury crash totals as Tennessee continues to recover and traffic patterns and trends shift. The Tennessee state legislature passed the 2017 IMPROVE Act requiring TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period. Some of the IMPROVE Act projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on traffic safety. TDOT is hopeful that a long-term transportation bill will be passed in 2021 which may help to increase the number of projects completed by the end of the performance period in 2022. Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. Tennessee's Strategic Highway Safety Plan3 update was completed and approved in 2020. Strategies are being implemented in six emphasis areas to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries: data collection and analysis, driver behavior, infrastructure improvements, vulnerable road users, operational improvements, and motor carrier safety. Targeted safety and enforcement campaigns are being conducted around the state. In January 2021, TDOT and the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security launched a public safety campaign after noting the increase in fatalities despite the decrease in traffic.4 The Tennessee Highway Safety Office is running a Slow Down Tennessee5 campaign to highlight the close to 23,000 speed-related crashes that occurred between 2017 and 2019. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Bristol Urban Area MPO was included in the target decision making process. Leadership approved a target of 1,201.4 for the 2018-2022 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes that January – May 2021 fatality data will remain as reported in early June and that June – December data will mimic fatalities from 2020. Fatalities for 2022 are projected as 2019 fatality totals plus the standard deviation for each month based on data from 2015-2022. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1Tennessee Office of the Governor, (2020). "AN ORDER DIRECTING TENNESSEANS TO STAY HOME UNLESS ENGAGING IN ESSENTIAL ACTIVITIES TO LIMIT THEIR EXPOSURE TO AND SPREAD OF COVID-19," [Online]. Available: https://publications.tnsosfiles.com/pub/execorders/exec-orders-lee22.pdf 2Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security, TITAN Division, (2021). "Historical Data Fatality Report 2020." [Data set]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/safety/documents/dailyfatality2020.pdf 3Tennessee Department of Transportation, Strategic Transportation Investments Division, (2021). "Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan 2020-2024," [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/strategic/SHSP-2020.pdf 4 Tennessee Department of Transportation, (2021). "TDOT and TDOSHS Launch Public Safety Campaign: Deadly Crashes Up, Traffic Volumes Down." [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/tdot/news/2021/1/25/tdot-and-tdoshs-launch-public-safety-campaign.html 5Tennessee Highway Safety Office, (2021). "No Title" [Online]. Available: https://tntrafficsafety.org/microsites/slow/Historical Data and Trends
The number of traffic fatalities in Tennessee for 2021 increased marking the 6th consecutive year of 1,000 fatalities or more. According to preliminary data, one thousand three hundred twenty-seven (1,327) fatalities occurred during Calendar Year 2021. This marked a 9% increase in fatalities over 2020. Current YTD fatalities as of June 1, 2022, show 31 fewer fatalities over the same date in 2021.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused changes in fatal and serious injury crashes. During 2020, Tennessee saw increases in many types of fatality crashes over 2019. These increases continued into 2021 with 7 months of fatalities being greater than the corresponding month in 2020.
Current Environment and Target Considerations
Inflation in the United States increased to 8.5% in March 2022 causing Americans to adjust their spending and travel habits. A recent report from American Consumer Credit Counseling1 found that more than 30% of Americans said they have cut spending on fuel and 50% have postponed or modified travel and vacation plans. Gasoline was up 48% at the time of the report which may force lower income residents to rely on alternative transportation modes such as transit, walking, or biking.
Funding
The Tennessee state legislature passed the 2017 IMPROVE Act requiring TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period. Some of the IMPROVE Act projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on traffic safety. A long-term transportation bill was passed in 2021 which may help to increase the number of projects completed by the end of the performance period in 2023.
Safety Projects
Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. Strategies from Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan2 are being implemented in six emphasis areas to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries: data collection and analysis, driver behavior, infrastructure improvements, vulnerable road users, operational improvements, and motor carrier safety.
Targeted safety and enforcement campaigns are being conducted around the state.
Target Selection
Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process.
Leadership approved a target of 1,308.2 for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes a 5.1% increase in fatalities. This increase corresponds with the average percent change in the previous 5-year period (2016-2021).
Special Note
It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on Tennessee roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors.
REFERENCES
1American Consumer Credit Counseling, (2022). American Consumers Curbed Spending on Both Necessities and Discretionary Activity as Inflation Surged in First Quarter. [Online]. Available: https://www.consumercredit.com/about-us/news-press-releases/2022/american-consumers-curbed-spending-on-both-necessities-and-discretionary-activity-as-inflation-surged-in-first-quarter/
2Tennessee Department of Transportation, Strategic Transportation Investments Division, (2021). Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan 2020-2024, [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/strategic/SHSP-2020.pdf
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Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
Targets: 2020-2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Reports
Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT)
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Fatality Rate
(per 100 million VMT)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 1.25 1.35 1.24 1.28 1.37 1.59 1.61 5-Year Average 1.298 1.366 1.418 Target (5-Year Average) 1.355 1.476 1.601 -
Basis for Fatality Rate Target
Generally, as the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases, the opportunity for severe vehicle crashes to occur also rises. Factors contributing to increases in VMT include population growth, low fuel prices, and a healthy economy. Since March, Tennessee has seen drastic reductions in traffic volumes caused by school and business closures, shift to remote work, and a Safer at Home order issued by the governor to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This order was in effect from March 31, 2020 to April 30, 2020 though many businesses chose to close or have employees work from home prior to that date and many have elected to extend those conditions beyond the expiration of the order. While Tennessee’s population continued to rise (0.85% from 2018 to 2019) (1) and fuel prices are low, the abrupt shutdown of Tennessee’s economy has significantly impacted traffic volumes in the Volunteer state with volumes reduced as much as 60% in some areas after the Safer at Home order was put into effect. It is possible that a long-term reduction in VMT may be experienced as the state encounters an economic downturn. The Safety Working Group theorized that some employers are likely not to return to a normal office setting if telework performance has effectively provided continuity of services. Tennessee’s second largest industry is tourism and, according to one report, Nashville has already cancelled 835 conventions with approximately 26M people cancelling trips through the end of 2020 (2). Finally, there are conflicting views that a second wave of the pandemic may occur later in the fall which would likely reduce traffic again. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency, Bristol Urban Area MPO, and the Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process. Published VMT from Federal Highway’s Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Statistics Series Table VM-2 (3) were used for calendar years 2018 and prior. TDOT’s Long Range Planning Division estimates calendar year 2019 VMT at 82,892 million miles. This estimate represents the preliminary VMT amount TDOT submitted to the Highway Performance and Monitoring System as of May 18, 2019. (Note: Because it is anticipated that VMT numbers will continue to change until published by FHWA, no updates have been made to the agreed upon 2015-2019 baseline.) Based upon the uncertainty of travel patterns as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the team reviewed travel data available for March, April and early May and considered several scenarios before opting to take a conservative approach for identifying the fatality rate target. The team estimates Tennessee will have declines in normal traffic as follows: 40% in March and April 2020, 20% in May, 10% in June, and will hold at 5% below normal traffic for the remainder of 2020 and 2021. (VMT for 2021 was estimated using an average of VMT from 2018, 2019, and projected 2020 values). Once the VMT estimates for calendar years 2020 and 2021 were agreed upon, the rate was then calculated using the 1,078.8 fatality number target to obtain the 1.355 target for the 2017-2021 target setting performance cycle. As defined by Final Safety Performance Measure Rule Subpart A, General Information 490.101 Definitions: Target means a quantifiable level of performance or condition, expressed as a value for the measure, to be achieved within a time period by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1 Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Tennessee State Data Center. “2019 Population Estimates Show Continued Growth in Tennessee, Southeastern States,” [Online]. Available: https://tnsdc.utk.edu/2019/12/31/2019- population-estimates-show-continued-growth-in-tennessee-southeastern-states/ 2 Abell, AJ. May 1, 2020. Nashville Tourism Hit Hard: 4th of July Likely Off, 835 Conventions Canceled. WZTV [Online]. Available: https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-tourism-hit-hard-4th-of-july-likely-off-835-conventions-canceled 3 Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2013-2018, State Tables Vehicle-miles of travel, by functional system, [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics.cfmGenerally, as the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases, the opportunity for severe vehicle crashes to occur also rises. However, 2020 VMT dropped by approximately 8% while traffic fatalities increased by 7% during the same time period. Travel trends in the first half of 2021 are comparable to 2019 traffic volumes. However, the lingering impacts of COVID-19 may continue to impact traffic volumes for the foreseeable future. A recent article by McKinsey & Company estimates that 20% of business travel may not return. Further, the same article reports that a survey of 278 executives representing 8 countries planned to reduce office space by 30%.1 Published VMT from Federal Highway's Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Statistics Series Table VM-22 were used for calendar years 2019 and prior. TDOT's Long Range Planning Division estimates calendar year 2020 VMT at 76,393 million miles. (Note: Because it is anticipated that VMT numbers will continue to change until published by FHWA, no updates have been made to the agreed upon 2016-2020 baseline.) Based on the uncertainty of travel patterns as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the team reviewed travel data available for March, April and early May and considered several scenarios before opting to take an optimistic but conservative approach for identifying the fatality rate target. The team estimates Tennessee's 2021 VMT will resemble 2019 data and will increase by 1% in 2022. Once the VMT estimates for calendar years 2021 and 2022 were agreed upon, the rate was then calculated using the 1,201.4 fatality number target to obtain the 1.476 target for the 2018-2022 target setting performance cycle. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security, Tennessee Division Office of the Federal Highway Administration, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization and the Bristol Urban Area MPO was included in the target decision making process. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1McKinsey Global Institute. "The Future of Work after COVID-19," [Online]. Available: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19 2Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2019, State Tables Vehicle-miles of travel, by functional system, [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2019/pdf/vm2.pdf Justifications – Serious Injuries Performance Measure Baseline 2014-2018 Target 2016-2020 Baseline 2015-2019 Target 2017-2021 Baseline 2016-2020 (Preliminary) Target 2018-2022 Number of Serious Injuries 6988.8 6352.4 6,725.4 6,227.1 6310.8 5588.6 Baseline numbers are determined using preliminary data available as of 4/21/2021 and were used only as a reference point for target setting. TDOT does not anticipate these will be the actual baselines used by FHWA to assess performance. Tennessee has been experiencing a decrease in serious injuries since 2015 but this decrease has begun to stabilize. A 19% decrease in serious injuries occurred in Tennessee from CY 2017 to CY 2018. In compliance with the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) Safety Performance Management Measures Final Rule (23 CFR 490), Tennessee revised the crash report in December 2017 to reflect the Model Minimum Uniform Crash Criteria Fourth Edition (MMUCC 4th edition) "Suspected Serious Injury (A)" attribute found in the "Injury Status" element. All states were required to comply with the new definition by April 15, 2019. While it is thought that the drastic decrease in serious injuries in 2018 is likely an effect of updating the crash report to meet FHWA's requirement, the number of serious injuries continued to decrease from 2018 to 2019 by 3%. The reduction of serious injuries slowed to 0.4% from 2019 to 2020. Additional information about serious injures can be found on the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security's Fatal and Serious Injury Crashes Dashboard.1 The Tennessee state legislature passed the 2017 IMPROVE Act requiring TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period of time. Some of the IMPROVE Act projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on results. It is unclear how long these trends may continue. TDOT is hopeful that a long-term transportation bill will be passed in 2021 which may help to increase the number of projects completed by the end of the performance period in 2022. Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. Tennessee's Strategic Highway Safety Plan2 update was completed and approved in 2020. Strategies are being implemented in six emphasis areas to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries. Emphasis areas include data collection and analysis, driver behavior, infrastructure improvements, vulnerable road users, operational improvements, and motor carrier safety. Targeted safety and enforcement campaigns are being conducted around the state. In January 2021, TDOT and the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security launched a public safety campaign after noting the increase in fatalities despite the decrease in traffic.3 Currently, the Tennessee Highway Safety Office is running a Slow Down Tennessee4 campaign to highlight the close to 23,000 speed-related crashes that occurred between 2017 and 2019. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Bristol Urban Area MPO was included in the target decision making process. Leadership approved a target of 5,588.6 for the 2018-2022 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes that the number of serious injuries for both 2021 and 2022 will remain at or below the 2019 total of 5,555. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1Department of Safety and Homeland Security, TITAN Division, (2021). "Fatal & Serious Injury Crashes." [Data set]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/safety/stats/dashboards/fatalseriousinjurycrashes.html 2Tennessee Department of Transportation, Strategic Transportation Investments Division, (2020). "Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan 2020-2024," [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/strategic/SHSP-2020.pdf 3Tennessee Department of Transportation, (2021). "TDOT and TDOSHS Launch Public Safety Campaign: Deadly Crashes Up, Traffic Volumes Down." [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/tdot/news/2021/1/25/tdot-and-tdoshs-launch-public-safety-campaign.html 4Tennessee Highway Safety Office, (2021). "No Title" [Online]. Available: https://tntrafficsafety.org/microsites/slow/Historical Data and Trends
Generally, as the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases, the opportunity for severe vehicle crashes to occur also rises. However, 2020 VMT dropped by 7.8% and rebounded by 8.4% in 2021. There was a 7% increase in fatalities from 2019 to 2020 and another 9% increase from 2020 to 2021.
Published VMT from Federal Highway Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Statistics Series Table VM-21 were used for calendar years 2020 and prior. TDOT Long Range Planning Division estimates calendar year 2021 VMT at 82,822 million miles. (Note: Because it is anticipated that VMT numbers will continue to change until published by FHWA, no updates have been made to the agreed upon 2017-2021 baseline.)
Current Environment and Target Considerations
Impacts from inflation and high fuel prices may impact traffic volumes during this target period. Inflation in the United States increased to 8.5% in March 2022 causing Americans to adjust their spending and travel habits. A recent report from American Consumer Credit Counseling2 found that more than 30% of Americans said they have cut spending on fuel and 50% have postponed or modified travel and vacation plans. Gasoline was up 48% at the time of the report which may force lower income residents to rely on alternative transportation modes such as transit, walking, or biking.
The team reviewed travel data available for March, April and early May and considered several scenarios before opting to take an optimistic but conservative approach for identifying the fatality rate target. The team estimates Tennessee VMT will increase by 0.25% in 2022 and increase by 0.5% in 2023. Once the VMT estimates for calendar years 2022 and 2023 were agreed upon, the rate was then calculated using the 1,308.2 fatality number target to obtain the 1.601 target for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle.
Target Selection
Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process.
Leadership approved a target of 1.601 for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes a 0.25% increase in VMT for 2022 and another 0.5% increase in VMT in 2023.
Special Note
It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on Tennessee roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors.
REFERENCES
1Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2020, State Tables Vehicle-miles of travel, by functional system, [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2020/pdf/vm2.pdf
2American Consumer Credit Counseling, (2022). American Consumers Curbed Spending on Both Necessities and Discretionary Activity as Inflation Surged in First Quarter. [Online]. Available: https://www.consumercredit.com/about-us/news-press-releases/2022/american-consumers-curbed-spending-on-both-necessities-and-discretionary-activity-as-inflation-surged-in-first-quarter/
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Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
Targets: 2020-2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Reports
Number of Serious Injuries
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Number of Serious Injuries 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 7,613 7,595 7,129 5,742 5,555 5,537 6,015 5-Year Average 6,726.8 6,311.6 5,995.6 Target (5-Year Average) 6,227.1 5,588.6 6,069.4 -
Basis for Number of Serious Injuries Target
Tennessee has been experiencing a decrease in serious injuries since 2015. A 19% decrease in serious injuries occurred in Tennessee from CY 2017 to CY 2018. In compliance with the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) Safety Performance Management Measures Final Rule (23 CFR 490), Tennessee revised the crash report in December 2017 to reflect the Model Minimum Uniform Crash Criteria Fourth Edition (MMUCC 4th edition) "Suspected Serious Injury (A)" attribute found in the "Injury Status" element. All states were required to comply with the new definition by April 15, 2019. While it is thought that the drastic decrease in serious injuries in 2018 is likely an effect of updating the crash report to meet FHWA’s requirement, the number of serious injuries continued to decrease from 2018 to 2019 by 3%. Generally, as travel increases, so do the chances of drivers being involved in crashes. Factors contributing to increased travel typically include population increases, travel related to tourist activities, low fuel prices, and a good economy. While Tennessee’s population continued to rise (0.85% from 2018 to 2019) (1) and fuel prices are low, the abrupt shutdown of Tennessee’s economy has significantly impacted traffic volumes in the Volunteer state with volumes reduced as much as 60% in some areas after the Safer at Home order was put into effect. A state funding increase (IMPROVE Act) occurred in 2017 and requires TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period of time. However, declines in fuel tax revenue may slow the ability for the state to complete projects. Bloomberg(2) reports that state transportation departments are expecting a 30% decline in fuel tax revenues over the next 18 months. Some of these projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on results. Additional factors provided by the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security and which may contribute to fatality numbers in Tennessee include geography, tourism, and freight. Tennessee is bordered by 8 other states and has 42 of 95 counties bordering another state. This may draw non-residents from out of state which could contribute to safety issues due to varying laws and traffic operations between states. While tourism is Tennessee’s 2nd largest industry, it is theorized that travel to the Volunteer State will be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic as evidenced by Nashville having cancelled 835 conventions and approximately 26M people cancelling trips to Music City through the end of 2020.(3) Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. In addition to implementing the Highway Safety Manual, utilizing predictive analysis to provide further enforcement at high crash locations, and providing various training programs, a bill banning handheld cell phones or standalone electronic devices took effect on July 1, 2019. This bill also requires the Department of Safety and Homeland Security (TDOSHS) to include distracted driving as part of the information presented in driver education training. Additionally, Tennessee’s Calendar Year 2019 seatbelt usage rate (91.75%) was higher than the national average (90.7%). (4) This marks the second year Tennessee’s usage rate surpassed 90 percent. TDOT has also been updating the state’s Strategic Highway Safety Plan during the current performance cycle. Once implemented, strategies identified in the update plan should help to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries. The Data Driven Safety Analysis implementation plan was developed to quantify the effectiveness of safety countermeasures used in TDOT processes using the Highway Safety Manual. As defined by Final Safety Performance Measure Rule Subpart A, General Information 490.101 Definitions: Target means a quantifiable level of performance or condition, expressed as a value for the measure, to be achieved within a time period by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Targeted enforcement campaigns, such as Operation Hands Free, are being conducted around the state. Some Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) are using crash and speed data to identify areas for increased enforcement activities. As Weigh In Motion expands in Tennessee, the number of large trucks entering and exiting traffic near weigh stations will be reduced. TDOT and TN’s MPOs are consistently working to improve safety through projects. These projects include intersection improvements, retro-reflective sign projects, and bicycle/pedestrian safety improvements. The Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency is working develop a methodology for analyzing 2016- 2020 crash data by contributing factors that may be related to infrastructure. Development of this methodology should help to identify projects that will improve safety. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office (THSO), TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency, Bristol Urban Area MPO, and the Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process. The working group selected a target of 6,227.1 for the 2017-2021 target setting performance cycle. This target conforms to the 3-year linear trend line with a coefficient of determination value of 0.9992. The target is lower than the estimated baseline (2015-2019) identified for the current performance period. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce serious injuries on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1 Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Tennessee State Data Center. “2019 Population Estimates Show Continued Growth in Tennessee, Southeastern States,” [Online]. Available: https://tnsdc.utk.edu/2019/12/31/2019- population-estimates-show-continued-growth-in-tennessee-southeastern-states/ 2 Beene, Ryan. (April 15, 2020). America’s Empty Roads: Fewer Deaths But a Blow to State Budgets. Bloomberg. [Online]. Available: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/america-s-empty-roads-fewer-deaths-but-a-blow-to- state-budgets 3 Abell, AJ. May 1, 2020. Nashville Tourism Hit Hard: 4th of July Likely Off, 835 Conventions Canceled. WZTV [Online]. Available: https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-tourism-hit-hard-4th-of-july-likely-off-835-conventions-canceled 4 Tennessee Highway Safety Office. “Tennessee’s Seat Belt Usage Rate Reached 91.75 Percent in 2019,” [Online]. Available: https://tntrafficsafety.org/tennessee%E2%80%99s-seat-belt-usage-rate-reached-9175-percent-2019Tennessee has been experiencing a decrease in serious injuries since 2015 but this decrease has begun to stabilize. A 19% decrease in serious injuries occurred in Tennessee from CY 2017 to CY 2018. In compliance with the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) Safety Performance Management Measures Final Rule (23 CFR 490), Tennessee revised the crash report in December 2017 to reflect the Model Minimum Uniform Crash Criteria Fourth Edition (MMUCC 4th edition) "Suspected Serious Injury (A)" attribute found in the "Injury Status" element. All states were required to comply with the new definition by April 15, 2019. While it is thought that the drastic decrease in serious injuries in 2018 is likely an effect of updating the crash report to meet FHWA's requirement, the number of serious injuries continued to decrease from 2018 to 2019 by 3%. The reduction of serious injuries slowed to 0.4% from 2019 to 2020. Additional information about serious injures can be found on the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security's Fatal and Serious Injury Crashes Dashboard.1 The Tennessee state legislature passed the 2017 IMPROVE Act requiring TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period of time. Some of the IMPROVE Act projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on results. It is unclear how long these trends may continue. TDOT is hopeful that a long-term transportation bill will be passed in 2021 which may help to increase the number of projects completed by the end of the performance period in 2022. Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. Tennessee's Strategic Highway Safety Plan2 update was completed and approved in 2020. Strategies are being implemented in six emphasis areas to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries. Emphasis areas include data collection and analysis, driver behavior, infrastructure improvements, vulnerable road users, operational improvements, and motor carrier safety. Targeted safety and enforcement campaigns are being conducted around the state. In January 2021, TDOT and the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security launched a public safety campaign after noting the increase in fatalities despite the decrease in traffic.3 Currently, the Tennessee Highway Safety Office is running a Slow Down Tennessee4 campaign to highlight the close to 23,000 speed-related crashes that occurred between 2017 and 2019. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Bristol Urban Area MPO was included in the target decision making process. Leadership approved a target of 5,588.6 for the 2018-2022 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes that the number of serious injuries for both 2021 and 2022 will remain at or below the 2019 total of 5,555. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1Department of Safety and Homeland Security, TITAN Division, (2021). "Fatal & Serious Injury Crashes." [Data set]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/safety/stats/dashboards/fatalseriousinjurycrashes.html 2Tennessee Department of Transportation, Strategic Transportation Investments Division, (2020). "Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan 2020-2024," [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/strategic/SHSP-2020.pdf 3Tennessee Department of Transportation, (2021). "TDOT and TDOSHS Launch Public Safety Campaign: Deadly Crashes Up, Traffic Volumes Down." [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/tdot/news/2021/1/25/tdot-and-tdoshs-launch-public-safety-campaign.html 4Tennessee Highway Safety Office, (2021). "No Title" [Online]. Available: https://tntrafficsafety.org/microsites/slow/Historical Data and Trends
The decrease Tennessee has been experiencing in serious injuries since 2015 has begun to stabilize. A 19% decrease in serious injuries occurred in Tennessee from CY 2017 to CY 2018 and continued to decrease until 2020. From 2020 to 2021 there was an increase of 8.7%. In compliance with the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA) Safety Performance Management Measures Final Rule (23 CFR 490), Tennessee revised the crash report in December 2017 to reflect the Model Minimum Uniform Crash Criteria Fourth Edition (MMUCC 4th edition) "Suspected Serious Injury (A)" attribute found in the "Injury Status" element. All states were required to comply with the new definition by April 15, 2019. The decrease in serious injuries was likely an effect of updating the crash report to meet FHWA requirement. Additional information about serious injures can be found on the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security Fatal and Serious Injury Crashes Dashboard.1
Current Environment and Target Considerations
Inflation in the United States increased to 8.5% in March 2022 causing Americans to adjust their spending and travel habits. A recent report from American Consumer Credit Counseling2 found that more than 30% of Americans said they have cut spending on fuel and 50% have postponed or modified travel and vacation plans. Gasoline was up 48% at the time of the report which may force lower income residents to rely on alternative transportation modes such as transit, walking, or biking.
Funding
The Tennessee state legislature passed the 2017 IMPROVE Act requiring TDOT to complete 962 projects over an unspecified period. Some of the IMPROVE Act projects include safety improvements, however, there is a lag between the time safety projects are implemented to completion and additional time needed for those projects to then have an impact on traffic safety. A long-term transportation bill was passed in 2021 which may help to increase the number of projects completed by the end of the performance period in 2023.
Safety Projects
Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. Strategies from Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan3 are being implemented in six emphasis areas to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries: data collection and analysis, driver behavior, infrastructure improvements, vulnerable road users, operational improvements, and motor carrier safety.
Targeted safety and enforcement campaigns are being conducted around the state.
Target Selection
Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process.
Leadership approved a target of 6,069.4 for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle. This target was based on modeling conducted by the Tennessee Department of Safety and Homeland Security.
Special Note
It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors.
REFERENCES
1Department of Safety and Homeland Security, TITAN Division, (2021). Fatal & Serious Injury Crashes. [Data set]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/safety/stats/dashboards/fatalseriousinjurycrashes.html
2American Consumer Credit Counseling, (2022). American Consumers Curbed Spending on Both Necessities and Discretionary Activity as Inflation Surged in First Quarter. [Online]. Available: https://www.consumercredit.com/about-us/news-press-releases/2022/american-consumers-curbed-spending-on-both-necessities-and-discretionary-activity-as-inflation-surged-in-first-quarter/
3TennesseeDepartment of Transportation, Strategic Transportation Investments Division, (2021). Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan 2020-2024, [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/strategic/SHSP-2020.pdf
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Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 2020-2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Reports
Rate of Serious Injuries (per 100 million VMT)
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Rate of Serious Injuries
(per 100 million VMT)2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 9.93 9.88 8.67 7.06 6.70 7.25 7.28 5-Year Average 8.448 7.912 7.392 Target (5-Year Average) 8.394 6.869 7.424 -
Basis for Serious Injury Rate Target
Generally, as the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases, the opportunity for severe vehicle crashes to occur also rises. Factors contributing to increases in VMT include population growth, low fuel prices, and a healthy economy. Since March, Tennessee has seen drastic reductions in traffic volumes caused by school and business closures, shift to remote work, and a Safer at Home order issued by the governor to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This order was in effect from March 31, 2020 to April 30, 2020 though many businesses chose to close or have employees work from home prior to that date and many have elected to extend those conditions beyond the expiration of the order. While Tennessee’s population continued to rise (0.85% from 2018 to 2019) (1) and fuel prices are low, the abrupt shutdown of Tennessee’s economy has significantly impacted traffic volumes in the Volunteer state with volumes reduced as much as 60% in some areas after the Safer at Home order was put into effect. It is possible that a long-term reduction in VMT may be experienced as the state encounters an economic downturn. The Safety Working Group theorized that some employers are likely not to return to a normal office setting if telework performance has effectively provided continuity of services. Tennessee’s second largest industry is tourism and, according to one report, Nashville has already cancelled 835 conventions with approximately 26M people cancelling trips through the end of 2020 (2). Finally, there are conflicting views that a second wave of the pandemic may occur later in the fall which would likely reduce traffic again. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency, Bristol Urban Area MPO, and the Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process. Published VMT from Federal Highway’s Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Statistics Series Table VM-2 (3) were used for calendar years 2018 and prior. TDOT’s Long Range Planning Division estimates calendar year 2019 VMT at 82,892 million miles. This estimate represents the preliminary VMT amount TDOT submitted to the Highway Performance and Monitoring System as of May 18, 2019. (Note: Because it is anticipated that VMT numbers will continue to change until published by FHWA, no updates have been made to the agreed upon 2015-2019 baseline.) Based upon the uncertainty of travel patterns as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the team reviewed travel data available for March, April and early May and considered several scenarios before opting to take a conservative approach for identifying the serious injury rate target. The team estimates Tennessee will have declines in normal traffic as follows: 40% in March and April 2020, 20% in May, 10% in June, and will hold at 5% below normal traffic for the remainder of 2020 and 2021. (VMT for 2021 was estimated using an average of VMT from 2018, 2019, and projected 2020 values). Once the VMT estimates for calendar years 2020 and 2021 were agreed upon, the rate was then calculated using the 6,227.1 serious injury number target to obtain the 8.394 target for the 2017-2021 target setting performance cycle. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1 Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Tennessee State Data Center. “2019 Population Estimates Show Continued Growth in Tennessee, Southeastern States,” [Online]. Available: https://tnsdc.utk.edu/2019/12/31/2019- population-estimates-show-continued-growth-in-tennessee-southeastern-states/ 2 Abell, AJ. May 1, 2020. Nashville Tourism Hit Hard: 4th of July Likely Off, 835 Conventions Canceled. WZTV [Online]. Available: https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-tourism-hit-hard-4th-of-july-likely-off-835-conventions-canceled 3 Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2013-2018, State Tables Vehicle-miles of travel, by functional system, [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics.cfmGenerally, as the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases, the opportunity for severe vehicle crashes to occur also rises. However, 2020 VMT dropped by approximately 8% while serious injuries remained relatively stable during the same time period. Current travel trends are comparable to 2019 traffic volumes. However, the lingering impacts of COVID-19 may continue to impact traffic volumes for the foreseeable future. A recent article by McKinsey & Company estimates that 20% of business travel may not return. Further, the same article reports that a survey of 278 executives representing 8 countries planned to reduce office space by 30%.1 Published VMT from Federal Highway's Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Statistics Series Table VM-22 were used for calendar years 2019 and prior. TDOT's Long Range Planning Division estimates calendar year 2020 VMT at 76,393 million miles. (Note: Because it is anticipated that VMT numbers will continue to change until published by FHWA, no updates have been made to the agreed upon 2016-2020 baseline.) Based on the uncertainty of travel patterns as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the team reviewed travel data available for March, April and early May and considered several scenarios before opting to take an optimistic but conservative approach for identifying the serious injury rate target. The team estimates Tennessee's 2021 VMT will resemble 2019 data and will increase by 1% in 2022. Once the VMT estimates for calendar years 2021 and 2022 were agreed upon, the rate was then calculated using the 5,588.6 serious injury number target to obtain the 6.968 target for the 2018-2022 target setting performance cycle. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, Tennessee Department Of Safety and Homeland Security, Tennessee Division Office of the Federal Highway Administration, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization and the Bristol Urban Area MPO was included in the target decision making process. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1McKinsey Global Institute. "The Future of Work after COVID-19," [Online]. Available: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19 2Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2019, State Tables Vehicle-miles of travel, by functional system, [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2019/pdf/vm2.pdfHistorical Data and Trends
Generally, as the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increases, the opportunity for severe vehicle crashes to occur also rises. However, 2020 VMT dropped by 7.8% and rebounded by 8.4% in 2021. Serious injuries remained fairly stable, decreasing just 0.3% from 2019 to 2020, but increased by almost 9% from 2020 to 2021.
Published VMT from Federal Highway Office of Highway Policy Information (OHPI) Highway Statistics Series Table VM-21 were used for calendar years 2020 and prior. TDOT Long Range Planning Division estimates calendar year 2021 VMT at 82,822 million miles. (Note: Because it is anticipated that VMT numbers will continue to change until published by FHWA, no updates have been made to the agreed upon 2017-2021 baseline.)
Current Environment and Target Considerations
Impacts from inflation and high fuel prices may impact traffic volumes during this target period. Inflation in the United States increased to 8.5% in March 2022 causing Americans to adjust their spending and travel habits. A recent report from American Consumer Credit Counseling2 found that more than 30% of Americans said they have cut spending on fuel and 50% have postponed or modified travel and vacation plans. Gasoline was up 48% at the time of the report which may force lower income residents to rely on alternative transportation modes such as transit, walking, or biking.
The team reviewed travel data available for March, April and early May and considered several scenarios before opting to take an optimistic but conservative approach for identifying the fatality rate target. The team estimates Tennessee VMT will increase by 0.25% in 2022 and increase by 0.5% in 2023. Once the VMT estimates for calendar years 2022 and 2023 were agreed upon, the rate was then calculated using the 6,069.4 serious injury number target to obtain the 7.424 target for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle.
Target Selection
Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process.
Leadership approved a target of 7.424 for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes a 0.25% increase in VMT for 2022 and another 0.5% increase in VMT in 2023.
Special Note
It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities on our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors.
REFERENCES
1Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2020, State Tables Vehicle-miles of travel, by functional system, [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2020/pdf/vm2.pdf
2American Consumer Credit Counseling, (2022). American Consumers Curbed Spending on Both Necessities and Discretionary Activity as Inflation Surged in First Quarter. [Online]. Available: https://www.consumercredit.com/about-us/news-press-releases/2022/american-consumers-curbed-spending-on-both-necessities-and-discretionary-activity-as-inflation-surged-in-first-quarter/
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Data Sources:
Serious Injuries: 2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Report
VMT: 2015-2021 FHWA Highway Statistics Series, VM-2 Table
Targets: 2020-2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Reports
Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries
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Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities
and Serious Injuries2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual 503 497 548 506 503 557 615 5-Year Average 511.4 522.2 545.8 Target (5-Year Average) 521.0 534.8 600.9 -
Basis for Number of Non-Motorized Fatalities and Serious Injuries Target
Over the past decade (2009-2019), the number of non-motorist serious injuries and fatalities had an average rate of change at 3% from year to year. As of May 1, 2020, there were 9 more non-motorist fatalities compared to the same date in 2019. In addition to the 0.85% population growth experienced in the Volunteer State from 2018 to 2019 (1), there is anecdotal evidence to suggest a higher rate of bicyclist and pedestrian activity beginning with the Safer at Home order issued by the governor during March and April 2020. Projects to widen roadways and maintain wide travel lanes and sight distances have been identified for completion within Tennessee. While these projects may be necessary to alleviate congestion or other transportation problems, they also tend to decrease safety for pedestrians. Work to increase traffic safety in Tennessee is ongoing. With FHWA technical assistance over five years, seven TDOT divisions are working together to elevate seven pedestrian safety infrastructure designs in our plans: road diets, visibility enhancements, leading pedestrian intervals, pedestrian hybrid beacons, rectangular rapid-flashing beacons, pedestrian refuge islands and raised crosswalks. Additionally, TDOT has identified 17 high pedestrian crash locations and designed safety upgrades for these areas. Further, TDOT’s Multimodal Division is preparing to select additional pedestrian crash locations for future upgrades. TDOT has awarded 57 Multimodal Access Grants representing almost $44 Million in state funds since 2014. Another 18 projects ($14.5 Million) are anticipated to be awarded in 2020 and 2021 grants have been funded for $18 Million. Most of these grants cover sidewalk and pedestrian improvements. While it is expected that projects resulting from the Multimodal Access Grants and Pedestrian Road Safety Initiative will be completed by the end of the target setting cycle, TDOT is still projecting that non-motorist serious injuries and fatalities will continue to rise. Tennessee’s Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) have completed projects related to bicycle and pedestrian safety improvements with additional projects under construction. TDOT also provides facilitation and technical guidance to local requests for roadway restriping plans such as roadway diets, reduced lane widths, bicycle lanes, and pedestrian crossings. These projects improve pedestrian and bicycle access and safety. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office (THSO), TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, Chattanooga – Hamilton Regional Planning Agency, Bristol Urban Area MPO, and the Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process. The working group has selected a target of 521.0 for the 2017-2021 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes that the number of non-motorized serious injuries and fatalities for 2019 will increase by approximately 3.2% each year despite Tennessee's mitigation efforts. This percentage represents the average rate of change in the 5-year moving average non-motorized serious injury and fatalities from 2015-2019. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries for all users of our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1 Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, Tennessee State Data Center. “2019 Population Estimates Show Continued Growth in Tennessee, Southeastern States,” [Online]. Available: https://tnsdc.utk.edu/2019/12/31/2019- population-estimates-show-continued-growth-in-tennessee-southeastern-states/Over the past decade (2010-2020), the number of non-motorist serious injuries and fatalities decreased an average of 3% each year. However, the 5-year moving average has been steadily increasing since the average was 432.2 serious injuries and fatalities for the initial baseline reporting period for this measure (2012-2016). A total of 557 fatalities and serious injuries occurred in 2020 marking the highest number in recent years. As of June 1, 2021, there were 3 fewer bicyclist fatalities compared to the same date in 2020 while pedestrian fatalities increased by 3. Projects to widen roadways and maintain wide travel lanes and sight distances have been identified for completion within Tennessee. While these projects may be necessary to alleviate congestion or other transportation problems, they also tend to decrease safety for pedestrians. To mitigate this, TDOT has started a Pedestrian Road Safety Initiative by identifying 12 high pedestrian crash locations, designing safety upgrades for these areas and using Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) funds to employ countermeasures at these locations. Several of these projects are planned to be available for bid in 2021. TDOT's Multimodal Division has worked with TDOT's Data Visualization office to create an FHWA-approved methodology to rank all roads in Tennessee for prioritization. Using the Multimodal Prioritization Tool, the Multimodal Division is currently selecting additional pedestrian crash locations for continuing the Pedestrian Road Safety Initiative with future upgrades. TDOT has worked closely with FHWA in its Safe Transportation for Every Pedestrian (STEP) technical assistance program. In the last year, TDOT has helped coordinate a Pedestrian Road Safety Audit in Knoxville and four STEP workshops on countermeasures to increase pedestrian safety, one in each of TDOT's four regions. These countermeasures, approved and promoted by FHWA, are the core of the Pedestrian Road Safety Initiative projects mentioned above. Countermeasures include crosswalk visibility enhancements, leading pedestrian intervals (LPIs), pedestrian hybrid beacons (PHBs), pedestrian refuge islands, raised crosswalks, road diets, and rectangular rapid-flashing beacons. TDOT has also been working to develop the Statewide Active Transportation Plan2. This plan will provide guidance to TDOT staff on how to identify, plan, fund and design infrastructure that allows people to safely walk, bicycle, use a wheelchair or use a scooter on Tennessee state roads, whether in stand-alone projects or by incorporating these into current TDOT processes, projects and workflow. This plan is expected to be completed and ready for implementation by August 31, 2021. Currently, University of Tennessee Knoxville is conducting a research project: Addressing Traffic Safety to Reduce Pedestrian Injuries and Fatalities in Tennessee. This research is expected to analyze pedestrian crashes in order to develop a risk-based assessment framework that can aid in evaluating multi-criteria decision making. This research project is expected to be completed in early 2022. While implementation of survey findings may not impact pedestrian fatalities this performance cycle, it is hoped that this research will help decrease future pedestrian injuries and fatalities. TDOT has awarded 75 Multimodal Access Grants3 representing over $58 million in state funds since 2014. Another 23 projects representing $20 Million has been funded for 2021. Most of these grants cover sidewalk and pedestrian improvements, and addressing safety issues is included in the scoring to award applicants. While it is expected that projects resulting from the Multimodal Access Grants and Pedestrian Road Safety Initiative will be completed by the end of the target setting cycle, TDOT is still projecting that non-motorist serious injuries and fatalities will remain consistent with 2020's increased non-motorized serious injury and fatality number of 557. Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Bristol Urban Area MPO was included in the target decision making process. The working group has selected a target of 534.8 for the 2018-2022 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes that the number of non-motorized serious injuries and fatalities for 2020 will remain unchanged for 2021 and 2022 despite Tennessee's mitigation efforts. It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries for all users of our roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors. REFERENCES 1 Federal Highway Administration, (2021). "State Highway Safety Report (2018) - Tennessee," [Online]. Available: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm/reporting/state/safety.cfm?state=Tennessee 2Tennessee Department of Transportation, Multimodal Transportation Division, (2021). "Statewide Active Transportation Plan," [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/tdot/multimodal-transportation-resources/bicycle-and-pedestrian-program/statewide-active-transportation-plan.html#:~:text=Active%20transportation%20includes%20walking%2C%20bicycling%2C%20and%20traveling%20by,Tennessee%20for%20people%20of%20all 3Tennessee Department of Transportation, Multimodal Transportation Division, (2021). "MMAG Previous Awards 2020," [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/multimodaltransportation/multimodal-access-grant/MMAG%20Previous%20Awards%202020.pdfHistorical Data and Trends
The number of non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries has been increasing since 2018 with the percent change from 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 both averaging 11%. A total of 617 fatalities and serious injuries occurred in 2021 marking the highest number in recent years. As of June 1, 2022, there was 1 more bicyclist fatality compared to the same date in 2021 while pedestrian fatalities increased by 15.
Current Environment and Target Considerations
Projects to widen roadways and maintain wide travel lanes and sight distances have been identified for completion within Tennessee. While these projects are necessary to alleviate congestion or other transportation problems, they also tend to decrease safety for pedestrians. To assist with this, TDOT is taking steps to improve bicyclist and pedestrian facilities through enhancements to identifying the existing inventory and continuing to implement multimodal policies. Additionally, the Pedestrian Road Safety Initiative is advancing with 2 projects to be available for bid in fall 2022, with 4 more projects in the design phase, 4 projects to be available for bid in 2023, 6 more projects moving into the design phase and 10 new projects scheduled to enter the planning phase in 2022. Unfortunately, results from these projects will not be evident during the current target setting cycle but it is hoped these projects will decrease non-motorist fatalities and serious injuries in the future.
TDOT has also been working to implement the Statewide Active Transportation Plan1 developed in 2021. This plan will provide guidance to TDOT staff on how to identify, plan, fund and design infrastructure that allows people to safely walk, bicycle, use a wheelchair or use a scooter on Tennessee state roads, whether in stand-alone projects or by incorporating these into current TDOT processes, projects and workflow. Implementation is currently focused on evaluation of the state bicycle route system and updating public engagement techniques to increase participation in underserved communities.
Currently, University of Tennessee Knoxville is conducting a research project: Addressing Traffic Safety to Reduce Pedestrian Injuries and Fatalities in Tennessee. This research is expected to analyze pedestrian crashes in order to develop a risk-based assessment framework that can aid in evaluating multi-criteria decision making. This research project is expected to be completed in fall 2022. While implementation of survey findings may not impact pedestrian fatalities this performance cycle, it is hoped that this research will help decrease future pedestrian injuries and fatalities.
TDOT has awarded 124 Multimodal Access Grants2 representing over $101 million in state funds from 2014 to 2021. Most of these grants cover sidewalk and pedestrian improvements. Addressing safety issues is included in the scoring to award applicants.
In 2021, the Tennessee Highway Safety Office partnered with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to conduct a Highway Safety Program Assessment focused on Tennessee pedestrian and bicyclist safety program. The resulting recommendations have led to a multi-agency task force devoted to improving conditions for non-motorists and implementation of the Strategic Highway Safety Plan3 vulnerable users emphasis area.
Target Selection
Targets were set by consensus among working group participants which consisted of members of the Tennessee Highway Safety Office, TDOSHS, Tennessee Division Office of Federal Highway, and various divisions within TDOT. Input from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization, the Greater Nashville Regional Council, and Chattanooga-Hamilton County/North Georgia Transportation Planning Organization was included in the target decision making process.
Leadership approved a target of 600.9 for the 2019-2023 target setting performance cycle. This target assumes a 5% increase in fatalities. This increase corresponds with the average percent change in the previous 5-year period (2016-2021).
Special Note
It is always the intent of the Tennessee Department of Transportation and our partner agencies to reduce traffic fatalities and serious injuries for all users of Tennessee roadways. These targets are performance projections based on historical data and influencing factors.
REFERENCES
1Tennessee Department of Transportation, Multimodal Transportation Division, (2021). Statewide Active Transportation Plan, [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/tdot/multimodal-transportation-resources/bicycle-and-pedestrian-program/statewide-active-transportation-plan.html#:~:text=Active%20transportation%20includes%20walking%2C%20bicycling%2C%20and%20traveling%20by,Tennessee%20for%20people%20of%20all
2Tennessee Department of Transportation, Multimodal Transportation Division, (2022). List of Previous Awards, [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/multimodaltransportation/multimodal-access-grant/2021%20MMAG_Award%20Summary%20for%20website.pdf
3TennesseeDepartment of Transportation, Strategic Transportation Investments Division, (2021). Tennessee Strategic Highway Safety Plan 2020-2024, [Online]. Available: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/strategic/SHSP-2020.pdf
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Data Sources:
Fatalities: 2015-2020 Final FARS, 2021 FARS Annual Report File
Serious Injuries: 2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Report
Targets: 2020-2022 Tennessee HSIP Annual Reports
Additional Comments
N/A
Safety Performance Target Assessment
PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s safety performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Safety Performance Target Assessment Summary table. For example, the State may have set aggressive targets, and not met those targets, while another State may have set more easily attainable targets, and met those targets. FHWA understands that each State’s safety program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their safety performance targets.
| Performance Measure | 2017-2021 Target | 2017-2021 Actual | 2015-2019 Baseline | Met Target? | Better Than Baseline? | Met or Made Significant Progress? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Fatalities | 1,078.8 | 1,148.8 | 1,039.8 | No | No | No |
| Rate of Fatalities | 1.355 | 1.418 | 1.298 | No | No | |
| Number of Serious Injuries | 6,227.1 | 5,995.6 | 6,726.8 | Yes | N/A | |
| Rate of Serious Injuries | 8.394 | 7.392 | 8.448 | Yes | N/A | |
| Number of non-motorized fatalities and non-motorized serious injuries | 521.0 | 545.8 | 511.4 | No | No |