U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
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Washington, DC 20590
202-366-4000
Federal Highway Administration Research and Technology
Coordinating, Developing, and Delivering Highway Transportation Innovations
| REPORT |
| This fact sheet is an archived publication and may contain dated technical, contact, and link information |
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| Publication Number: FHWA-HRT-20-069 Date: November 2020 |
Publication Number: FHWA-HRT-20-069 Date: November 2020 |
PDF Version (2.87 MB)
Technical Report Documentation Page
| 1. Report No.
FHWA-HRT-20-069 |
2. Government Accession No. | 3 Recipient's Catalog No. | ||
| 4. Title and Subtitle
The Development of Crash Modification Factors: Highway Safety Statistical Paper Synthesis |
5. Report Date
November 2020 |
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| 6. Performing Organization Code | ||||
| 7. Author(s)
Eric Donnell (ORCID: 0000-0002-5315-0614), Ephraim Hanks, Richard J. Porter (ORCID: 0000-0001-8535-3451), Lawrence Cook (ORCID: 0000-0001-9085-0428), Raghavan Srinivasan (ORCID: 0000-0002-3097-5154), Fan Li (ORCID: 0000-0002-0390-3673), Maggie Nguyen, Kimberly Eccles (ORCID: 0000-0001-7522-9609) |
8. Performing Organization Report No. | |||
| 9. Performing Organization Name and Address
VHB |
10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) | |||
| 11. Contract or Grant No.
DTFH61-13-D-00001 |
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| 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address
Office of Safety Research and Development |
13. Type of Report and Period Covered
Final Report; September 2015–November 2017 |
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| 14. Sponsoring Agency Code
HRDS-20 |
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| 15. Supplementary Notes
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Safety Research and Development managed this study. The FHWA Office of Safety Research and Development Task Order Manager was Roya Amjadi (HRDS-20; ORCID 0000-0001-7672-8485). |
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| 16. Abstract
The transportation-engineering community is transforming by integrating quantitative methods into the task development process. This report identifies opportunities to better understand the relationships between road safety and factors that affect traffic-crash occurrence and severity. In this report, current statistical-analysis methods and data sources used in road-safety research are compared with alternative methods and data sources. Causal inference methods are compared to observational before–after methods to develop safety-effect estimates of centerline and edgeline rumble strips. Regression trees and Random ForestsTM are compared to count regression methods to predict crash frequencies on freeways. Road-safety performance estimates using the Crash Outcomes Data Evaluation System are also discussed, with a focus on opportunities to link hospital and crash data to understand the relationship between crashes and site-specific contributing factors. Methods to account for underreporting in crash-frequency models are also described. |
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| 17. Key Words
Statistical analysis, propensity score, probabilistic link, regression trees, CODES, causal inference |
18. Distribution Statement
No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161. |
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| 19. Security Classification (of this report) Unclassified |
20. Security Classification (of this page) Unclassified |
21. No. of Pages
126 |
22. Price
N/A |
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| Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) | Reproduction of completed page authorized |
