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Publication Number: FHWA-RD-98-165
Date: July 1999

Guidebook on Methods to Estimate Non-Motorized Travel: Overview of Methods

FOREWORD

 

This two-volume guidebook describes and compares the various methods and tools that can be used to forecast non-motorized travel demand or that otherwise support the prioritization and analyses of bicycle and pedestrian facilities. The guidebook is intended to be used by bicycle and pedestrian planners, technical staff, researchers, advocates, and others who may wish to estimate bicycle and pedestrian travel demand or to prioritize bicycle and pedestrian projects.

This second volume, Supporting Documentation, gives details on each method, including purpose, structure, input / data needs, assumptions, and real-world applications. This volume contains an extensive annotated bibliography of references on demand forecasting methods, supporting tools and techniques, and factors influencing the choice to walk or bicycle, as well as potential contacts in this field. The other volume, Overview of Methods, provides an overview of each of nineteen methods appropriate for forecasting and/or understanding pedestrian and bicycle travel demand.

    Michael F. Trentacoste, Director, Office of Safety R&D

 

Notice

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the use of the information contained in this document.

The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trademarks or manufacturers' names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the objective of the document.

Quality Assurance Statement

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides high-quality information to serve Government, industry, and the public in a manner that promotes public understanding. Standards and policies are used to ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of its information. FHWA periodically reviews quality issues and adjusts its programs and processes to ensure continuous quality improvement.

 

TECHNICAL REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE

1. Report No.

FHWA-RD-98-165

2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.
4. Title and Subtitle

GUIDEBOOK ON METHODS TO ESTIMATE NON-MOTORIZED TRAVEL:
OVERVIEW OF METHODS

5. Report Date

July 1999

6. Performing Organization Code
7. Author(s)

WL Schwartz, CD Porter, GC Payne, JH Suhrbier, PC Moe, WL Wilkinson III

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Bicycle Federation of America
150 Cambridge Park Dr., Ste 4000 1506 21st St., NW, Ste. 200
Cambridge, MA 02140 Washington, DC 20036
10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

3A4B

11. Contract or Grant No.

DTFH61-92-C-00138

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

Federal Highway Administration
Turner-Fairbanks Highway Research Center
6300 Georgetown Pike
McLean, VA 22101-2296

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

Final Report
July 1, 1997 - February 28, 1999

14. Sponsoring Agency Code
15. Supplementary Notes

Contracting Officer's Technical Representatives (COTR's): Carol Tan Esse and Ann Do

16. Abstract

This guidebook provides a means for practitioners to better understand and estimate bicycle and pedestrian travel and to address transportation planning needs. The guidebook describes and compares the various methods that can be used to forecast non-motorized travel demand or that otherwise support the prioritization and analyses of non-motorized projects. These methods are categorized according to four major purposes: (1) demand estimation; (2) relative demand potential; (3) supply quality analysis; and (4) supporting tools and techniques. Discrete choice models, regional travel models, sketch plan methods, facility demand potential, bicycle compatibility measures, and geographic information systems are among the methods and tools described.

Overview of Methods provides a concise overview for each available method, including some typical applications, pros and cons, and a quick reference guide on ease of use, data requirements, sensitivity to design factors, and whether widely used. In addition, it discusses general issues for consideration in forecasting non-motorized travel demand, such as the dimensions of travel behavior and factors influencing bicycling and walking, and identifies future needs in this area.

Supporting Documentation provides substantially more detail on the methods including purpose, structure, input/data needs, assumptions, and real-world applications. It also contains an extensive annotated bibliography of references on demand forecasting methods, supporting tools and techniques, and factors influencing the choice to walk or bicycle, as well as potential contacts in this field.

17. Key Words:

Bicycle, pedestrian, travel demand, forecasting methods, estimate.

18. Distribution Statement

No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the National Technical Information Services, Springfield, VA 22161

19. Security Classif.(of this report)

Unclassified

20. Security Classif. (of this page)

Unclassified

21. No. of Pages 22. Price
Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of form and completed page is authorized

 


TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction

  • 1.1 Purpose of Guidebook
  • 1.2 The Importance of Forecasting Demand
  • 1.3 How to Use This Guidebook

2.0 Introduction to Non-Motorized Travel Forecasting

  • 2.1 Dimensions of Travel Behavior
  • 2.2 Perspectives on Modeling Travel Behavior
  • 2.3 The Four-Step Urban Transportation Planning Process
  • 2.4 Factors Specifically Influencing Bicycling and Walking
  • 2.5 Differences in Forecasting Bicycle vs. Pedestrian Travel

3.0 Guide to Available Methods

  • 3.1 Overview of Methods
    • Demand Estimation Comparison Studies
    • Aggregate Behavior Studies
    • Sketch Plan Methods
    • Discrete Choice Models
    • Regional Travel Models
    • Relative Demand Potential Market Analysis
    • Facility Demand Potential
    • Supply Quality Analysis Bicycle and Pedestrian Compatibility Measures
    • Environment Factors
    • Supporting Tools and Techniques Geographic Information Systems
    • Preference Surveys
  • 3.2 Key Characteristics and Uses of Each Method

4.0 Conclusions and Future Needs

  • 4.1 Conclusions
  • 4.2 Future Needs
    • Development of a Manual for Bicycle and Pedestrian Sketch-Planning
    • Research on Factors Influencing Non-Motorized Travel Behavior
    • Integration of Bicycle and Pedestrian Considerations into Mainstream
    • Transportation Models and Planning

 

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