State Highway Reliability Report - New Jersey
In the line graphs below, FHWA has shifted the "Year" label in the x-axis back by one year, from Data Reporting Year to Data Collection Year. More information
The information displayed is provided by the State in their 2018 Baseline Performance Period Report (BPP) and has not been edited by FHWA. Any questions about individual State reports should be directed to the respective State DOT
Please note: FHWA posted baseline data from State BPP reports to help bring context to their performance targets. This data may result in some discrepancies among published DOT performance data due to data sources and reporting years used when establishing the performance targets.
Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Baseline
82.1%
Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
Interstate Highways
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Trend through 2021
Desired trend: ↑
New Jersey % of Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Target
4-Year Target
82.0%
Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
Interstate Highways
2-Year Target: 82.0%
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Basis for Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled:
The following points were considered for setting targets in New Jersey. These points primarily concern the Travel Time Reliability target, which uses the National Performance Research Data Set (NPMRDS) data. - Accuracy of NPMRDS v2 Dataset – The Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI) and University of Maryland’s CATT Lab are under contract with FHWA to provide NPMRDS v2 data to the States for analysis. Both TTI and CATT Lab faced challenges with accuracy of the NPMRDS v2 dataset, which was derived from the 2017 INRIX Travel Time data. The NPMRDS v2 dataset is a network of the links made of the travel time on the Interstates (for this measure), which are called Travel Message Channels (TMCs), in short, it is called TMC network. - Corrections made to the TMCs in New Jersey - The NJDOT staff and three MPOs (NJTPA, DVRPC and SJTPO) collaboratively made corrections to the TMC network for New Jersey and provided corrections to TTI and CATT Lab to incorporate in the final dataset. Each TMC link was checked and verified against 2016 HPMS data submitted to FHWA as per the requirements stated in PM3 final rule. TTI was able to remove some extra TMC links from the network and make some other corrections. - HPMS Data lag – While working with TMC network downloaded from the CATT Lab’s approved Probe Data Analytics Suite (PDA Suite), the staff learned that there is a 2-year lag in the HPMS data being used for conflation with TMC network by TTI. NJDOT will reexamine the targets as the NPMRDS v2 network catches up with the most recent HPMS data (perhaps same year data). - Targets – Every time the TMC network is updated, the baseline changes. FHWA recognizes that as the NPMRDS v2 improves, the future target values may change. - Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Levels - There is a general upward trend in VMT growth, but VMT levels tend to fluctuate with the health of the economy, and can affect target values by affecting congestion. Therefore, the impact of VMT on future target levels is unknown. - Future Trends - NJDOT and MPOs have collaboratively decided to observe the future trends. As a result of the issues listed above, and with a reliable NPMRDS v2 dataset available for next four to six years, it may be possible to adjust targets appropriately and predict reliable future targets (beyond 2022). Therefore, NJDOT and MPOs have collaboratively decided to keep the future 2-year and 4-year Travel Time reliability targets for Interstates same as the 2017 baseline value. The Baseline percent of person-miles traveled on the Interstates that are reliable is 82.0%, which was derived from the PDA Suite at the time of “pencils-down” Complete Team meeting comprised of NJDOT, MPOs and other Stakeholders, including FHWA, NJ Transit and Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Data: 2018 New Jersey Biennial Performance Report
Non-Interstate National Highway System (NHS) Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Baseline*
N/A
Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
Non-Interstate NHS
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Trend through 2021
Desired trend: ↑
New Jersey % of Non-Interstate NHS reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Target
4-Year Target
84.1%
Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
Non-Interstate NHS
2-Year Target: N/A *
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*Behind the data: For the first performance period only, baseline condition and 2-year targets are not required for the Non-Interstate NHS reliability measure.
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Basis for Non-Interstate National Highway System (NHS) Reliable Person-Miles Traveled:
The information from the 2016 HPMS supplemental report that was provided to NJDOT to approximate the baseline for this measure in order to develop targets by May of 2018 indicated that the baseline was 61.25%.NJDOT used its pavement management system and its own measures, metrics and budget information to predict performance on the State Highway System, where it has significant experience with performance management and forecasting. A correlation analysis was developed and applied to the State Highway System performance to try to-predict corresponding performance on the NHS using the Federal measures and metrics. The results of this correlation analysis showed a gradually declining trend on both the Interstate and non-Interstate NHS pavements at the current funding level. Although not available to NJDOT at the time the targets were set, the results of the 2017 HPMS data submission indicated that performance for this measure had dropped to 55% setting a significant declining trend. Since comprehensive quantitative data regarding current and future investment levels on the NHS by other owners is not readily available, a survey was sent to all owners requesting information on past and future expenditures on NHS routes as well as qualitative information regarding future funding and pavement performance. This information was used to help validate the results of the correlation analysis.Since NJDOT has no experience evaluating and managing the NHS as a whole, no experience with the Federal pavement measures and metrics, only an estimated baseline condition for the NHS, a declining performance history for the NHS by the newly established metrics, as well as no specific budgetary or treatment type, cost and trigger information for the other 83 owners of the NHS, the Department recommends adopting conservative but realistic targets for this initial performance period with the understanding the they can be modified at the mid-period review if appropriate. Data: 2018 New Jersey Biennial Performance Report
Interstate Highway Truck Travel Time Reliability (TTTR) Index
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Baseline
1.82
Truck Travel Time Reliability Index
Interstate Highways
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Trend through 2021
Desired trend: ↓
New Jersey Truck Travel Time Reliability Index
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Target
4-Year Target
1.95
Truck Travel Time Reliability Index
Interstate Highways
2-Year Target: 1.90
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Basis for Interstate Highway Truck Travel Time Reliability:
Overall VMT is increasing, so is Port Activity (both containers and general cargo https//www.panynj.gov/port/trade-stats.html ), and e-Commerce, which increases truck activity. Meanwhile road capacity is not expanding therefore congestion will increase as will the TTTRI measure. Also data trends show a very modest increase in TTTRI over the calendar years of 2016 and 2017. Therefore, the Department and the MPOs agreed on a 2-year target of 1.9. However, it is anticipated that over 4 years, the target would be slightly higher, so it is set to 1.95. Data: 2018 New Jersey Biennial Performance Report