New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) Travel Model Peer Review Report

5.0 NYBPM 2.0

5.1 Data Collection Plan

Just as in the case of the development of NYBPM 1.0, NYMTC is currently in the midst of an extensive data collection effort that will provide the basis for advancing the model. Data from the 2010 census will form the basis for an updated 2010 housing/population database, and TAZ-level employment data are being updated.

The agency is conducting a 24-hour travel diary survey of over 18,000 households in the region, along with extensive GPS speed data (2,000 directional miles of roadway), origin-destination data at 12 cordon stations, and extensive traffic count/classification data (2300 screenlines).

NYMTC has plans for a regional establishment survey, a river crossing survey, and an on-board transit survey in the next two years.

5.2 NYMTC's Initial Priorities for NYBPM 2.0

NYMTC staff outlined their preliminary strategic vision for modeling capabilities in 2017. The vision is for a model that supports all levels of analysis, as follows:

• "Conformity Model" - A state-of-practice model for addressing conformity requirements, as they are likely to be in 2017 and beyond.
• "MIS/Corridor Studies Model" - A model that is optimized to provide mode splits and O-D tables needed for corridor and project studies.
• "Policy Analysis Model" - A model designed to inform policymakers about the impacts of pricing and other policy decisions.
• "Operational Analysis Model" - A model that assists in the simulation of operation factors (intersection delay, queuing, turning movements, etc) and provides inputs to the traffic simulation model.

To that end, the NYMTC staff proposed a prioritized list of topics for the panel to consider, recognizing there was limited time for the peer review and of course limited resources for model development. That list is presented below. The panel in the end reframed these priorities, but NYMTC's initial list helped steer the overall discussion.

Overlaying most of the topic areas were issues around usability, including the modularity and applicability of the model system and opportunities for dynamic flexibility in terms of geography/segmentation/modes.

• Highest Priority
  • Intra-household interactions in daily activity patterns
  • Sensitivity to a wide range of pricing policies
  • Realistic mode choice by geography
  • Destination Choice & incorporation of upcoming Establishment Survey
  • Dynamic time-of-day scheduling sensitive to congestion and pricing
• Medium Priority
  • Dynamic traffic assignment
  • Interfacing with Traffic Simulation/Subarea Analysis
  • Transit modeling and calibration
  • Non-resident travel
  • Parking supply and pricing
• Lowest Priority
  • Zoning and networks
  • Representing non-motorized travel
  • External travel model
  • Model applications platform and IT issues
  • Freight/commercial vehicle movement

NYMTC requested an objective assessment of their modeling needs with respect to state of the practice and the modeling goals of the agency. NYMTC looked to the peers for advice on a systematic approach to model enhancements, and technical guidance on modeling processes to address the various policy and investment questions.

NYMTC, along with its partner agencies, will critically assess the feedback from the peers when prioritizing its model development plan for NYBPM 2.0. While the advice of the peers is invaluable, there are many factors to work through when considering a model improvement strategy, and therefore the recommendations of the peers should be regarded as recommendations for NYMTC and its partners to consider.