The Exploratory Advanced Research Program

The Impact of Automated Transit, Pedestrian, and Bicycling Facilities on Urban Travel Patterns Summary Report

Conclusions and Recommendations

The purpose of this EAR Program project was to aid in an assessment of whether automated vehicle technologies deployed as community shuttles to transit stations hold promise for further research and development. The research was conducted within a best-case framework and adopted best-case assumptions. The research team explored the potential of transportation and urban streetscape improvements to increase transit use within cities and suburban neighborhoods without significant changes to the built environment. The specific improvements included an automated high-frequency, fixed-route community shuttle serving the transit station; bicycle lanes, paths, racks, and signals; and streetscape changes, such as more trees, wider sidewalks, and better lighting. The project used three forms of analysis—survey research, activity-based modeling, and agent-based modeling—as a check against one another and ultimately combined them into a single model to explore the impact of the potential improvements.

The project results suggest that high-frequency transit shuttles could trigger significant shifts from driving to public transit. Shifts to public transit may be larger in low-density neighborhoods that are more automobile-oriented and in neighborhoods where bus service is unavailable, unreliable, or infrequent. Streetscape improvements targeting areas near transit stops may reinforce these shifts, as may policies that modify other aspects of travel. The strong response to cycling improvements in particular suggests that there is considerable growth potential for this mode with installation of the appropriate facilities.

The research suggests that greater shifts can be expected in urban and close-in suburban neighborhoods that are less transit-oriented.