State Highway Reliability Report - Virginia
The information below summarizes the TPM Highway Reliability performance measures, which include two highway reliability measures and one truck travel time reliability measure. Per 23 CFR 490, State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) are required to establish 2- and 4-year targets for these measures. The targets should represent the anticipated condition/performance at the mid-point and end of the 4-year performance period. State DOTs establish targets at the beginning of each 4-year performance period, and report on progress every two years. When establishing targets, State DOTs have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. Performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.
The targets and discussion of basis for targets, optional adjustment of targets, progress, and planned activities were provided by the State DOT in its most recent biennial performance report. FHWA has not edited this information. It is provided to help bring context to the State DOT's performance targets and progress. The data in the tables and graphs is from the biennial performance report or HPMS data submittal as noted below each measure summary. Any questions about the information should be directed to the State DOT.
Data reported by State DOTs was collected in the previous year, representing the condition/performance at the time of collection. Thus, in the tables and graphs below, FHWA labels data with the year representing the condition/performance, rather than the year the data was reported. The same thing is done for the targets--the year represents when the corresponding actual condition/performance data will be collected, not reported. More Information.
Significant Progress Determination
FHWA determines significant progress for these measures after the mid-point and end of each performance period. A State has met or made significant progress toward target achievement if “actual” condition/performance is equal to or better than the established two-year target or “actual” condition/performance is better than baseline performance 23 CFR 490.109(e). As provided in 23 CFR 490.107(b)(2)(ii)(A), baseline condition/performance is derived from the latest data collected through the beginning date of the performance period. FHWA will classify the assessment of progress toward the achievement of an individual 2-year or 4-year target as “progress not determined” if a State provides the extenuating circumstance information required in 23 CFR 490.109(e)(5), and FHWA accepts the information.
Most recent Significant Progress Determination for the Reliability measures
Most recent Significant Progress Determination for all applicable measures
Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Condition/Performance 84.3 82.4 83.6 93.8 -- Target -- -- 82.2 -- 82.0 -
Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
Baseline data consists of 2016-2017 LOTTR data, and it is assumed that there will be a linear growth of total person-miles traveled (PMT) in future years. VDOT estimated values of percentage of reliable PMT for 2018-2021 using four different methods(a) Percentage of reliable PMT based on a linear extrapolation of the baseline data. (b) Assume that most PMT growth will occur on “barely good” links, i.e. links with LOTTRs between 1.4 and 1.5, all of which will therefore become unreliable. (c) Only a portion of the “barely good” links will become unreliable based on the percent of “barely good” links that shifted to unreliable from 2016-2017. (d) There will be consistent net reliability deterioration for the entire Interstate system annually.
These considerations collectively informed the established 2- and 4- year targets. The 2- and 4-year targets recognize a downward trend based on the limited baseline data available (82.8 % reliable in 2016 and 86.2 % reliable in 2017) while accounting for planned and programmed strategies aimed at minimizing reliability deterioration.
Virginia calculated its baseline for percent of person-miles traveled on the Interstate that are reliable as 82.6%. Please note that the level of effort to determine the differences in the FHWA calculated vs. the VDOT calculated baseline is deemed significant and may only be a matter of simple issues such as the assumptions utilized.
Having only two years of data from which to set a target and not having a complete understanding of how various projects and strategies affect the Level of Travel Time Reliability, Virginia was cautiously optimistic that its efforts to reduce congestion and improve reliability would increase the percent of person miles traveled on the interstate that are reliable. Virginia was also aware that the many construction projects planned for key corridors over the target period might negatively impact the corridor’s reliability. Although the target represented a slight decrease in performance, it was less of a decrease than the 2-year trend represented.Virginia has exceeded its 2-year target by reaching a performance of 83.6 percent reliability on the interstates.
As to be expected, most areas of unreliability lie in more populated urban areas. Northern Virginia hot spots include I-95 between Fredericksburg and DC and I-66 inside and outside the Beltway. Many of these remain areas of low reliability in 2019 with some slight improvements noted. On I-95 southbound, there is less unreliability near mile marker 143, Garrisonville Road, which is likely due to the expansion of the Express Lanes approximately 2 miles further south. This reduces the spillback queue into the general purpose lanes as the Express Lanes end and merge into the general flow. Additional improvements are anticipated as these Express Lanes are extended another 10 miles to Route 17 in Fredericksburg.
Hot spots of unreliability in the Hampton Roads area are scattered throughout the urban area with concentration on I-64 westbound and eastbound approaching the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel. Although many of the hot spots remained the same from 2017 to 2019, two hot spots on I-64 on the peninsula have been eliminated with the widening by one lane and one shoulder lane in each direction which was completed in December of 2017.
N/AVirginia is on track to meet its 4-year target, and future efforts will focus on safety, operational, and demand management strategies to minimize the impact of work zones, crashes, and other incidents on the variability of travel time. Although smaller construction projects will be completed within the next two years, these are either not in areas of high unreliability currently or are expected to provide a minimal improvement in unreliability.There are many additional projects that will be completed after the end of 2021 and their impact on reliability will be felt later. These include the extension of the I-95 Express lanes 10 miles south to Fredericksburg, extension of the I-495 Express lanes north, replacement of the American Legion Bridge, addition of another tube at the Hampton Roads Bridge Crossing, and other travel demand management and operational improvements.
Data Sources:
Virginia 2018, 2020 Biennial Performance Report
Virginia 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 HPMS Data Submittal
Non-Interstate National Highway System (NHS) Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Non-Interstate NHS reliable Person-Miles Traveled 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Condition/Performance -- -- 88.9 94.8 -- Target -- -- -- -- 82.5 Behind the data: For the first performance period only, baseline condition and 2-year targets are not required for the Non-Interstate NHS reliability measure.
Non-Interstate National Highway System (NHS) Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
Baseline data consists of 2016-2017 LOTTR data, and it is assumed that there will be a linear growth of total PMT in future years. VDOT estimated values of percentage of reliable PMT for 2018-2021 using four different methods(a) Percentage of reliable PMT based on a linear extrapolation of the baseline data. (b) Assume that most PMT growth will occur on “barely good” links, i.e. links with LOTTRs between 1.4 and 1.5, all of which will therefore become unreliable. (c) Only a portion of the “barely good” links will become unreliable based on the percent of “barely good” links that shifted to unreliable from 2016-2017. (d) There will be a consistent net reliability deterioration for the entire Non-Interstate NHS system annually. These considerations collectively informed the established 4-year target. The 4-year target recognizes a downward trend based on the limited baseline data available (87.9 % reliable in 2016 and 86.8 % reliable in 2017) while accounting for planned and programmed strategies aimed at minimizing reliability deterioration.
N/AN/AN/AData Sources:
Virginia 2018, 2020 Biennial Performance Report
Virginia 2020, 2021 HPMS Data Submittal
Interstate Highway Truck Travel Time Reliability (TTTR) Index
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Truck Travel Time Reliability Index 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Condition/Performance 1.48 1.58 1.55 1.32 -- Target -- -- 1.53 -- 1.56 -
Interstate Highway Truck Travel Time Reliability
Due to historical data unavailability, 2016-2017 TTTR index numbers represented the baseline trend for this target. A simple linear trend analysis was conducted stemming from this baseline. The target was based on the results of the discrete percentile method and rounding guideline from NPMRDS v2 INRIX data (2016-2017) and applied after the trend analysis. This trend is consistent with anticipated reliability impacts based on projected growth in truck VMT.Virginia calculated its baseline for Truck Travel Time Reliability Index as 1.49.
VDOT has conducted numerous interstate corridor improvement projects and plans to continue over the next years to improve congestion and safety, and improving freight movement is a major component. The high volume of construction on Interstate improvements in recent years (2017 to 2019, specifically) hinders performance in the short-term due to lane closures and other construction impacts. However, VDOT expects performance to improve over the long-term, including the final years of this first performance period (2020-2021), as construction is completed, such as the recent widenings of segments of I-64 between Richmond and Hampton Roads. - Major construction projects also complicate estimating targets correctly and evaluating the 2-year and 4-year targets reasonably. For example, based on a sensitivity analysis on the statewide TTTR measure, VDOT found that a small number of TMC segments having large TTTR index could impact the statewide TTTR index greatly; for example, without the top 10 worst locations, the statewide TTTR went down from 1.54 to 1.5, which is a 3 percent improvement. - Despite these limitations, VDOT narrowly missed meeting the 2-year target and remains on track to meet the 4-year target. As a reminder, Virginia used a linear trend analysis of 2016 and 2017 data to set the 2-year target; the trend analysis projected worsening conditions for the TTTR Index at the statewide level due to increasing freight volume, and the target was set to not exceed the projected trend. - Please see F2 for more details on Virginia’s efforts to improve freight movement.N/AVDOT will continue to promote improvement (capacity expansion, ITS operation and maintenance, safety, and multimodal) programs to minimize congestion and improve travel time reliability (see F2 for more information). As mentioned earlier (F6), there will be a short-term disadvantage from construction activities, but benefits from improvement projects are expected over the long term. - Virginia’s Freight Investment Plan includes 44 projects, totaling $421 million; this includes 23 projects with construction completed, 13 with construction underway, and 8 with construction pending. Additionally, there are other programmed projects included in the state’s transportation improvement program (STIP) that once completed will improve freight reliability on the National Highway System. Some of these projects are funded as a result of the SMART SCALE prioritization process referenced above and include such projects as widening of the bridges over the Rappahannock River on I-95 to increase capacity. Other projects may be funded through regional funding or Public Private Partnerships, such as widening of I-64 in the Hampton Roads region to include the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, a known freight bottleneck. These programmed investments, several of which will be completed by 2021, will aid in improving freight reliability in Virginia. - VDOT works with other entities to develop performance monitoring systems and to create target setting methodologies. Once more travel time data are available and network data gets better, VDOT expects that systems and methodologies will be stable so that more accurate target setting is available. Plus, a better systematic monitoring process will be applicable. Data Sources:
Virginia 2018, 2020 Biennial Performance Report
Virginia 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 HPMS Data Submittal
Significant Progress Determination
This table shows FHWA’s most recent determination for the Infrastructure performance measures.
PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Significant Progress Determination Results table. FHWA understands that each State’s program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their performance targets.
| Measure Area | Measures | Baseline | Target | Actual | Better than Baseline? | Achieved Target? | Made Significant Progress? | Consequences [23 CFR 490.109(f)] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The performance of the Interstate System | Interstate Travel Time Reliability measure | 84.3 | 82.2 | 83.6 | No | Yes | Yes | None | |
| Freight movement on the Interstate System | Freight Reliability measure | 1.48 | 1.53 | 1.55 | No | No | No | Additional reporting | |