State Highway Reliability Report - Virginia
The information below summarizes the TPM Highway Reliability performance measures, which include two highway reliability measures and one truck travel time reliability measure. Per 23 CFR 490, State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) are required to establish 2- and 4-year targets for these measures. The targets should represent the anticipated condition/performance at the mid-point and end of the 4-year performance period. State DOTs establish targets at the beginning of each 4-year performance period, and report on progress every two years. When establishing targets, State DOTs have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate. FHWA encourages States to review data sets and trends and consider factors that may affect targets. Performance targets should be data-driven, realistic, and attainable and should align with the performance management framework and legislative intent.
The targets and discussion of basis for targets, optional adjustment of targets, progress, and planned activities were provided by the State DOT in its most recent biennial performance report. FHWA has not edited this information. It is provided to help bring context to the State DOT's performance targets and progress. The data in the tables and graphs is from the biennial performance report or HPMS data submittal as noted below each measure summary. Any questions about the information should be directed to the State DOT.
Data reported by State DOTs was collected in the previous year, representing the condition/performance at the time of collection. Thus, in the tables and graphs below, FHWA labels data with the year representing the condition/performance, rather than the year the data was reported. The same thing is done for the targets--the year represents when the corresponding actual condition/performance data will be collected, not reported. More Information.
Significant Progress Determination
FHWA determines significant progress for these measures after the mid-point and end of each performance period. A State has met or made significant progress toward target achievement if “actual” condition/performance is equal to or better than the established two-year target or “actual” condition/performance is better than baseline performance 23 CFR 490.109(e). As provided in 23 CFR 490.107(b)(2)(ii)(A), baseline condition/performance is derived from the latest data collected through the beginning date of the performance period. FHWA will classify the assessment of progress toward the achievement of an individual 2-year or 4-year target as “progress not determined” if a State provides the extenuating circumstance information required in 23 CFR 490.109(e)(5), and FHWA accepts the information.
Most recent Significant Progress Determination for the Reliability measures
Most recent Significant Progress Determination for all applicable measures
Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Condition/Performance 86.3 -- -- -- -- Target -- -- 85.0 -- 85.0 -
Interstate Highway Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
- Basis for Targets
- 2-yr Progress
- Basis for 4-yr Target Adjustment
- 4-yr Planned Activities
- 4-yr Progress
Virginia has developed a model to predict if a segment will be reliable or not. The model utilizes a machine learning algorithm and considers 30 independent variables in its prediction of reliability. The methodology for establishing the targets is attached. The following highlights the key steps in the target setting methodology- Collecting, cleaning and organizing the data for 30 independent variables.
- Developing the model for prediction use by splitting the data to train and validate the model
- Validating the model by comparing with actual measures calculated previously
- Preparing the model with future year data and growth assumptions
- Predicting target for future years
Average growth rate is based on historic Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled. Virginia downloads the NPMRDS data from the RITIS platform and utilizes other VDOT data, e.g. crashes, roadway geometry, AADT, programmed projects. Virginia calculated its target for percent of person-miles traveled on the Interstate that are reliable as 85.0%. This projection suggests an improvement in performance since the first performance period.
Data Sources:
Virginia 2022 Biennial Performance Report
Virginia 2022 HPMS Data Submittal
Non-Interstate National Highway System (NHS) Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
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Non-Interstate NHS reliable Person-Miles Traveled 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Condition/Performance 95.0 -- -- -- -- Target -- -- 88.0 -- 88.0
Non-Interstate National Highway System (NHS) Reliable Person-Miles Traveled
- Basis for Targets
- 2-yr Progress
- Basis for 4-yr Target Adjustment
- 4-yr Planned Activities
- 4-yr Progress
Virginia has explored the use of a model to predict future performance on the non-interstate network, but the complexity of the system (i.e., traffic control, access, and functional class) has made modeling very difficult. Thus, Virginia refined its methodology from the first performance period to the second. The methodology considers the net change in reliability through time based on past performance trends. The methodology for establishing the targets is attached. The following highlights the key steps in the target setting methodology- Estimating the statewide net change in Person Miles Traveled Reliable for 2017-2019 - Estimating the statewide average net change in reliability per year - Adding future year data and growth assumptions with assumption that net change in Reliability will remain the same - Predicting targets for future years
Average growth rate is based on historic Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled. Virginia downloads the NPMRDS data set from the RITIS platform. Virginia calculated its 2- and 4-year targets for percent of person-miles traveled on the Non-Interstate that are reliable as 88.0%. This projection is consistent with performance trends pre-pandemic.
Data Sources:
Virginia 2022 Biennial Performance Report
Virginia 2022 HPMS Data Submittal
Interstate Highway Truck Travel Time Reliability (TTTR) Index
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Truck Travel Time Reliability Index 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Condition/Performance 1.49 -- -- -- Target -- -- 1.64 -- 1.64 -
Interstate Highway Truck Travel Time Reliability
- Basis for Targets
- 2-yr Progress
- Basis for 4-yr Target Adjustment
- 4-yr Planned Activities
- 4-yr Progress
For the target setting in the 2nd performance report period, the data in 2020 and in 2021 were not used because these were the data during the pandemic. With the TTTR index data between 2016 and 2019, VDOT conducted a segment-level linear regression trend analysis and applied a TTTR benefit factor that was estimated from the actual interstate projects. Due to the elimination and addition of some of TMCs in each year’s TMC inventory, some TMC segments have less than 4 years of data points. Data Sources:
Virginia 2022 Biennial Performance Report
Virginia 2022 HPMS Data Submittal
Significant Progress Determination
This table shows FHWA’s most recent determination for the Infrastructure performance measures.
PLEASE NOTE: Each State’s performance target assessment is based on its own State-specific target methodology and program philosophy. Therefore, conclusions should not be drawn based only on the information in the Significant Progress Determination Results table. FHWA understands that each State’s program is unique and therefore does not prescribe a methodology for States to set targets. States have the flexibility to use the methodology they deem most appropriate when setting their performance targets.
| Measure Area | Measures | Baseline | Target | Actual | Better than Baseline? |
Achieved Target? | Made Significant Progress? |
Consequences [23 CFR 490.109(f)] |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The performance of the National Highway System | Interstate Travel Time Reliability | 84.3 | 82.0 | 86.3 | Yes | Yes | Yes | None | |
| Non-Interstate NHS Travel Time Reliability | 88.93 | 82.5 | 95.0 | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
| Freight movement on the Interstate System | Freight Reliability | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.49 | No | Yes | Yes | None | |
3 The 2-year condition/performance, in 2020 Mid Performance Period Progress Report, as the baseline condition/performance, as required in 23 CFR 490.105(e)(7)(iii).