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Updated Interim Guidance on Mobile Source Air Toxic Analysis in NEPA Documents

Appendix B - Examples of Prototype Language for Qualitative Project-Level MSAT Analysis

The information in this Appendix is for projects with low potential MSAT effects – any non-exempt project that does not meet the threshold criteria for higher potential effects, as described in the interim guidance, should be considered for treatment provided here. The types of projects that fall into this category are those that improve operations of highways or freight facilities without adding substantial new capacity. Examples include minor widening projects or new interchanges replacing signalized intersection on surface streets.

The following are some examples of qualitative MSAT analyses for different types of projects. Each project is different, and some projects may contain elements covered in more than one of the examples below. Analysts can use the example language as a starting point, but should tailor it to reflect the unique circumstances of the project being considered. The following factors should be considered when crafting a qualitative analysis:

Other elements related to a qualitative analysis are a discussion of information that is incomplete or unavailable for a project specific assessment of MSAT impacts and a discussion of any MSAT mitigation measures that may be associated with the project.

INTODUCTORY LANGUAGE FOR QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR ALL PROJECTS

A qualitative analysis provides a basis for identifying and comparing the potential differences among MSAT emissions, if any, from the various alternatives. The qualitative assessment presented below is derived in part from a study conducted by FHWA entitled A Methodology for Evaluating Mobile Source Air Toxic Emissions Among Transportation Project Alternatives, found at: www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/air_quality/air_toxics/research_and_analysis/mobile_source_air_toxics/msatemissions.cfm.

(1) Minor Widening Project

(For purposes of this scenario, minor highway widening projects are those in which the design year traffic is predicted to be less than140,000 – 150,000 AADT. Widening projects that surpass these criteria may be subject to a quantitative analysis.)

For each alternative in this EIS/EA (specify), the amount of mobile source air toxics (MSAT) emitted would be proportional to the vehicle miles traveled, or VMT, assuming that other variables such as fleet mix are the same for each alternative. The VMT estimated for each of the Build Alternatives is slightly higher than that for the No Build Alternative, because the additional capacity increases the efficiency of the roadway and attracts rerouted trips from elsewhere in the transportation network. Refer to Table underline (specify). This increase in VMT would lead to higher MSAT emissions for the preferred action alternative along the highway corridor, along with a corresponding decrease in MSAT emissions along the parallel routes. The emissions increase is offset somewhat by lower MSAT emission rates due to increased speeds; according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) MOVES2014 model, emissions of all of the priority MSAT decrease as speed increases. Because the estimated VMT under each of the Alternatives are nearly the same, varying by less than underline (specify) percent, it is expected there would be no appreciable difference in overall MSAT emissions among the various alternatives. Also, regardless of the alternative chosen, emissions will likely be lower than present levels in the design year as a result of EPA's national control programs that are projected to reduce annual MSAT emissions by over 90 percent between 2010 and 2050 (Updated Interim Guidance on Mobile Source Air Toxic Analysis in NEPA Documents, Federal Highway Administration, October 12, 2016). Local conditions may differ from these national projections in terms of fleet mix and turnover, VMT growth rates, and local control measures. However, the magnitude of the EPA-projected reductions is so great (even after accounting for VMT growth) that MSAT emissions in the study area are likely to be lower in the future in nearly all cases.

(The following paragraph may apply if the project includes plans to construct travel lanes closer to populated areas.)

The additional travel lanes contemplated as part of the project alternatives will have the effect of moving some traffic closer to nearby homes, schools, and businesses; therefore, under each alternative there may be localized areas where ambient concentrations of MSAT could be higher under certain Build Alternatives than the No Build Alternative. The localized increases in MSAT concentrations would likely be most pronounced along the expanded roadway sections that would be built at underline (specify location), under Alternatives underline (specify), and along underline (specify route) under Alternatives underline (specify). However, the magnitude and the duration of these potential increases compared to the No-Build alternative cannot be reliably quantified due to incomplete or unavailable information in forecasting project-specific MSAT health impacts. In sum, when a highway is widened, the localized level of MSAT emissions for the Build Alternative could be higher relative to the No Build Alternative, but this could be offset due to increases in speeds and reductions in congestion (which are associated with lower MSAT emissions). Also, MSAT will be lower in other locations when traffic shifts away from them. However, on a regional basis, EPA's vehicle and fuel regulations, coupled with fleet turnover, will over time cause substantial reductions that, in almost all cases, will cause region-wide MSAT levels to be significantly lower than today.

(2) New Interchange Connecting an Existing Roadway with a New Roadway

(This scenario is oriented toward projects where a new roadway segment connects to an existing limited access highway. The purpose of the roadway is primarily to meet regional travel needs, e.g., by providing a more direct route between locations.)

For each alternative in this EIS/EA (specify), the amount of mobile source air toxics (MSAT) emitted would be proportional to the vehicle miles traveled, or VMT, assuming that other variables such as fleet mix are the same for each alternative. Because the VMT estimated for the No Build Alternative is higher than for any of the Build Alternatives, higher levels of MSAT are not expected from any of the Build Alternatives compared to the No Build. Refer to Table underline (specify). In addition, because the estimated VMT under each of the Build Alternatives are nearly the same, varying by less than underline (specify) percent, it is expected there would be no appreciable difference in overall MSAT emissions among the various alternatives. Also, regardless of the alternative chosen, emissions will likely be lower than present levels in the design year as a result of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) national control programs that are projected to reduce annual MSAT emissions by over 90 percent from 2010 to 2050 (Updated Interim Guidance on Mobile Source Air Toxic Analysis in NEPA Documents, Federal Highway Administration, October 12, 2016). Local conditions may differ from these national projections in terms of fleet mix and turnover, VMT growth rates, and local control measures. However, the magnitude of the EPA-projected reductions is so great (even after accounting for VMT growth) that MSAT emissions in the study area are likely to be lower in the future in virtually all locations.

Under each alternative there may be localized areas where VMT would increase, and other areas where VMT would decrease. Therefore, it is possible that localized increases and decreases in MSAT emissions may occur. The localized increases in MSAT emissions would likely be most pronounced along the new roadway sections that would be built at underline (specify location), under Alternatives underline (specify), and along underline (specify route) under Alternatives underline (specify). However, even if these increases do occur, they too will be substantially reduced in the future due to implementation of EPA's vehicle and fuel regulations.

In sum, under all Build Alternatives in the design year it is expected there would be reduced MSAT emissions in the immediate area of the project, relative to the No Build Alternative, due to the reduced VMT associated with more direct routing, and due to EPA's MSAT reduction programs.

(3) New Interchange Connecting New Roadways

(This scenario is oriented toward interchange projects developed in response to or in anticipation of economic development, e.g., a new interchange to serve a new shopping/residential development. Projects from the previous example may also have economic development associated with them, so some of this language may also apply.)

For each alternative in this EIS/EA (specify), the amount of mobile source air toxics (MSAT) emitted would be proportional to the vehicle miles traveled, or VMT, assuming that other variables such as fleet mix are the same for each alternative. The VMT estimated for each of the Build Alternatives is slightly higher than that for the No Build Alternative, because the interchange facilitates new development that attracts trips that would not otherwise occur in the area. Refer to Table underline (specify). This increase in VMT means MSAT under the Build Alternatives would probably be higher than the No Build Alternative in the study area. There could also be localized differences in MSAT from indirect effects of the project such as associated access traffic, emissions of evaporative MSAT (e.g., benzene) from parked cars, and emissions of diesel particulate matter from delivery trucks (modify depending on the type and extent of the associated development). Travel to other destinations would be reduced with subsequent decreases in emissions at those locations.

Because the estimated VMT under each of the Build Alternatives are nearly the same, varying by less than underline (specify) percent, it is expected there would be no appreciable difference in overall MSAT emissions among the various Build Alternatives. For all Alternatives, emissions are virtually certain to be lower than present levels in the design year as a result of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) national control programs that are projected to reduce annual MSAT emissions by over 90 percent from 2010 to 2050 (Updated Interim Guidance on Mobile Source Air Toxic Analysis in NEPA Documents, Federal Highway Administration, October 12, 2016). Local conditions may differ from these national projections in terms of fleet mix and turnover, VMT growth rates, and local control measures. However, the magnitude of the EPA-projected reductions is so great (even after accounting for VMT growth) that MSAT emissions in the study area are likely to be lower in the future than they are today.

(The following discussion would apply to new interchanges in areas already developed to some degree. For new construction in anticipation of economic development in rural or largely undeveloped areas, this discussion would be applicable only to populated areas, such as residences, schools, and businesses.)

The travel lanes contemplated as part of the project alternatives will have the effect of moving some traffic closer to nearby homes, schools and businesses; therefore, under each alternative there may be localized areas where ambient concentrations of mobile source air toxics (MSAT) would be higher under certain Alternatives than others. The localized differences in MSAT concentrations would likely be most pronounced along the new/expanded roadway sections that would be built at underline (specify location), under Alternatives underline (specify), and along underline (specify route) under Alternatives underline (specify). However, the magnitude and the duration of these potential increases cannot be reliably quantified due to incomplete or unavailable information in forecasting project-specific MSAT health impacts. Further, under all Alternatives, overall future MSAT are expected to be substantially lower than today due to implementation of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) vehicle and fuel regulations.

In sum, under all Build Alternatives in the design year it is expected there would be slightly higher MSAT emissions in the study area relative to the No Build Alternative due to increased VMT. There also could be increases in MSAT levels in a few localized areas where VMT increases. However, EPA's vehicle and fuel regulations will bring about significantly lower MSAT levels for the area in the future than today.

(4) Minor Improvements or Expansions to Intermodal Centers or Other Projects that Affect Truck Traffic

(The description for these types of projects depends on the nature of the project. The key factor from an MSAT standpoint is the change in truck and rail activity and the resulting change in MSAT emissions patterns.)

For each alternative in this EIS/EA (specify), the amount of mobile source air toxics (MSAT) emitted would be proportional to the amount of truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and rail activity, assuming that other variables (such as travel not associated with the intermodal center) are the same for each alternative. The truck VMT and rail activity estimated for each of the Build Alternatives are higher than that for the No Build Alternative, because of the additional activity associated with the expanded intermodal center. Refer to Table underline (specify). This increase in truck VMT and rail activity associated with the Build Alternatives would lead to higher MSAT emissions (particularly diesel particulate matter) in the vicinity of the intermodal center. The higher emissions could be offset somewhat by two factors: 1) the decrease in regional truck traffic due to increased use of rail for inbound and outbound freight; and 2) increased speeds on area highways due to the decrease in truck traffic. The extent to which these emissions decreases will offset intermodal center-related emissions increases is not known.

Because the estimated truck VMT and rail activity under each of the Build Alternatives are nearly the same, varying by less than underline (specify) percent, it is expected there would be no appreciable difference in overall MSAT emissions among the various alternatives. Also, regardless of the alternative chosen, emissions will likely be lower than present levels in the design year as a result of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) national control programs that are projected to reduce annual MSAT emissions by over 90 percent from 2010 to 2050 (Updated Interim Guidance on Mobile Source Air Toxic Analysis in NEPA Documents, Federal Highway Administration, October 12, 2016). Local conditions may differ from these national projections in terms of fleet mix and turnover, VMT growth rates, and local control measures. However, the EPA-projected reductions are so significant (even after accounting for VMT growth) that MSAT emissions in the study area are likely to be lower in the future as well.

(The following discussion may apply if the intermodal center is close to other development.)

The additional freight activity contemplated as part of the project alternatives will have the effect of increasing diesel emissions in the vicinity of nearby homes, schools, and businesses; therefore, under each alternative there may be localized areas where ambient concentrations of MSAT would be higher than under the No Build alternative. The localized differences in MSAT concentrations would likely be most pronounced under Alternatives underline (specify). However, as discussed above, the magnitude and the duration of these potential differences cannot be reliably quantified due to incomplete or unavailable information in forecasting project-specific health impacts. Even though there may be differences among the Alternatives, on a region-wide basis, EPA's vehicle and fuel regulations, coupled with fleet turnover, will cause substantial reductions over time that in almost all cases the MSAT levels in the future will be significantly lower than today.

(Insert a description of any emissions-reduction activities that are associated with the project, such as truck and train idling limitations or technologies, such as auxiliary power units; alternative fuels or engine retrofits for container-handling equipment, etc.)

In sum, the Build Alternatives in the design year could be associated with higher levels of MSAT emissions in the study area, relative to the No Build Alternative, along with some benefit from improvements in speeds and reductions in region-wide truck traffic. There also could be slightly higher differences in MSAT levels among Alternatives in a few localized areas where freight activity occurs closer to homes, schools, and businesses. Under all alternatives, MSAT levels are likely to decrease over time due to nationally mandated cleaner vehicles and fuels.

MSAT MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Although there is no obligation to identify and consider MSAT mitigation strategies as part of a qualitative analysis, such strategies may be part of a project’s design. Refer to the examples provided in (4) Minor Improvements or Expansions to Intermodal Centers or Other Projects that Affect Truck Traffic, or Appendix E. For these and similar circumstances, MSAT mitigation strategies should be discussed as part of a qualitative analysis.

CEQ PROVISIONS COVERING INCOMPLETE OR UNAVAILABLE INFORMATION (40 CFR 1502.22)

The introductory language for qualitative analysis should be followed by a 40 CFR 1502 assessment of incomplete or unavailable information. Refer to Appendix C for details.

Updated: 5/17/2017
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