• Foreword
• Executive Summary
• Organization of this Report
• 1 Introduction
  • 1.1 Goals and Objectives of This Primer
  • 1.2 Risk Definitions
  • 1.3 Risk in Value Capture for Transportation Funding
• 2 Risk Management in Value Capture
  • 2.1 Risk Identification
  • 2.2 Risk Assessment
  • 2.3 Risk Allocation
  • 2.4 Risk Mitigation
  • 2.5 Risk Monitoring
• 3 Exogenous Economic Risks
  • 3.1 Macroeconomic Risks
    • 3.1.1 Risk Example 1: TIFs Across the Country Before and After the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
    • 3.1.2 Risk Example 2: COVID-19 Disrupted the Balance between Real Estate Demand and Supply, with Short and Long-Term Effects
  • 3.2 Real Estate Market Risks
    • 3.2.1 Risk Example 3: Real Estate Market Risks
  • 3.3 Other Local Economic and Demographic Risks
    • 3.3.1 Risk Example 4: Unemployment and Migration at the Rust Belt
• 4 Endogenous Economic Risks
  • 4.1 Economic Growth Impact and Related Risks
    • 4.1.1 Risk Example 9: Lack of Experience with Transit Joint Development – Early Years of the Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) LRT Stations
  • 4.2 Fiscal Impact Risks
    • 4.2.1 Risk Example 10: TIF Projects not Spurring Expected Economic Development
• 5 Legal and Political Risks
  • 5.1 Legal Feasibility and Legislative Risks
    • 5.1.1 Risk Example 5: Changes in Impact Fee Requirements: City of Phoenix Impact Fees
    • 5.1.2 Risk Example 6: Lack of Clarity in Transportation Reinvestment Zones (TRZ) Legislation for Texas Counties
    • 5.1.3 Risk Example 7: Legal Risks and Reputational Issues of Using Naming Rights
  • 5.2 Local Political Climate and Political Feasibility Risks
    • 5.2.1 Risk Example 8: Resistance Implementing TIDs to Fund the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project
    • 5.2.2 Risk Example 9: Public Support for Legislative Reforms to Allow Texas Counties to Use Transportation Reinvestment Zones
    • 5.2.3 Determining the Fee Basis—Use Characteristics
• 6 Policy and Institutional Risks
  • 6.1 Social Equity (and Other Environmental/Sustainability) Concerns
    • 6.1.1 Risk Example 11: Social Equity and Legal Feasibility Risks: The Atlanta BeltLine Tax Allocation District and Gentrification
    • 6.1.2 Risk Example 12: Social Equity and Legal Feasibility Risks: The Atlanta BeltLine Tax Allocation District and School Funding
  • 6.2 Administration and Transparency Risks
    • 6.2.1 Risk Example 13: Need for Improving of Administration and Transparency and of City of Chicago TIF Districts
• 7 Value Capture Technique-Specific Risks–Comparative
• 8 Building Resiliency and Developing Risk-Adjusted Value Capture Strategy
  • 8.1 Value Capture and Risk Timeline for Stakeholders
  • 8.2 Value Capture Risk-Adjusted Strategy through Integration and Phasing
• References
• Appendix: Contents of a Texas TRZ Value Capture Study

LIST OF FIGURES

• Figure 1. Risk Management Process (4)
• Figure 3. Restaurant Facade at The Cap
• Figure 4. The Cap from Above
• Figure 5. Transportation Project Life Cycle Phases [Adapted from (55) ]
• Figure 6. Transportation Project Life Cycle and Risk Influence Curve [Adapted from (56) and (55) ]

LIST OF TABLES

• Table 1. Value Capture Techniques (1)
• Table 2. Risk Definitions
• Table 3.Value Capture Risk Classification
• Table 5. Risk Assessment Table
• Table 6. Risk Allocation Matrix
• Table 7. Risk Severity of Impact Comparative Matrix
• Table 8. Impact Fees and Negotiated Exactions Risk Checklist
• Table 9. Transportation Utility Fees Risk Checklist
• Table 10. Special Assessment Districts Risk Checklist
• Table 11. Business Improvement Districts Risk Checklist
• Table 12. Land Value Taxes Risk Checklist
• Table 13. Sales Tax Districts Risk Checklist
• Table 14. Tax Increment Finance Risk Checklist
• Table 15. At-Grade or Above Grade Joint Development Risk Checklist
• Table 16. Utility Joint Development Risk Checklist
• Table 17. Naming Rights Risk Checklist

LIST OF BOXES

• Box 1. Structured Brainstorming Process in Risk Identification
• Box 2. Examples of Risk Mitigation Strategies
• Box 3. TRZ Dashboard for TRZ Risk Monitoring