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FHWA Home / Policy & Governmental Affairs / Development of Long-Distance Multimodal Passenger Travel Modal Choice Model

Development of Long-Distance Multimodal Passenger Travel Modal Choice Model

Prepared for:
Office of Highway Policy Information
Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Avenue, S.E.
Washington, DC 20590

July 23, 2012

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ABBREVIATIONS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

2.0 LITERATURE AND PRACTICE REVIEW
3.0 MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING MODE CHOICE
4.0 VALIDATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS

5.0 CONCLUSIONS

6.0 REFERENCES

List of Tables

List of Figures


1. Report No
2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.
4. Title and Subtitle
Report D – Revised Comprehensive Report
Development of Long Distance Multimodal Passenger Travel Modal Choice Model
5. Report Date
July 23, 2012
6. Performing Organization Code
100003810-03
7. Author(s)
M.S. Anderson
J.M. Simkins
8. Performing Organization Report No.
 
9. Performing Organization Name and Address
Battelle
505 King Avenue
Columbus, OH 43201-2693
10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)
 
11. Contract or Grant No.
DTFH61-07-D-00010
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address
United States Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Highway Policy Information
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE
Washington DC 20590
13. Type of Report and Period Covered
Comprehensive Report on Statistical Models Fit to Long-Distance Travel Data 6/2011 to 5/2012
14. Sponsoring Agency Code
15. Supplementary Notes
16. Abstract
This report includes an executive summary as well as details of research conducted to develop a set of statistical models to predict long-distance passenger travel mode. A literature and practice review was conducted to gather information on the current knowledge and practices for long-distance passenger travel modal choices. Using this information, a set of multinomial logistic regression models were developed to predict mode choice given various demographic and socioeconomic attributes of the traveler, trip characteristics such as length and purpose, land-use characteristics, as well as availability of transportation infrastructure. The models use long-distance travel data from the 2001 NHTS as well as other sources. K-fold cross-validation is used to assess the predictive ability of the models.
17. Key Word
Long-Distance Travel, Passenger Travel Mode Choice, Multinomial Logistic Regression Model
18. Distribution Statement
19. Security Classif. (of this report)
Unclassified
20. Security Classif. (of this page)
Unclassified
21. No. of Pages
84
22. Price
Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72)     Reproduction of completed page authorized
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Page last modified on February 2, 2015.
Federal Highway Administration | 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE | Washington, DC 20590 | 202-366-4000